[OlympicsFan 783]

21 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

Kraft's streak ends, as Geiger jumps from the mist for the win. Really good start for Germany as old faces Geiger, Wellinger and Paschke are showing form from 5 years ago.

Interesting take ...

 

1) Could you please tell me when exactly Paschke was in that kind of shape before?

2) Geiger was 2nd in the world cup standings in 2022 (and 2020) and won an individual bronze at the world championships last year.

3) Wellinger was 7th in the world cup standing last season after coming back from an injury.

[OlympicsFan 783]

2 hours ago, justony said:

Ok, let us look some numbers. 

- Women Team

- Men Individual

 

  947.1

Kreuzer 213.0

Pinkelnig 223.5

Hoerl 253.3

Kraft 257.3

 

  926.2

Stroem 218.1

Bjoerseth 213.2

Forfang 244.3

Granerud 251.6

 

  953.4

Freitag 217.0

Althaus 219.5

Geiger 257.7

Wellinger 259.2

 

  930.0

Križnar 217.7

Klinec 208.7

Zajc 251.7

Lanišek 251.9

 

  913.0

(if Ryoyu would get twice same)

 

Maruyama 210.5

Yuki Ito 219.3

Nakamura 229.8

R. Kobayashi 126.7 (dsq R2)

 

So, to sum up:

1. 

2.  +6.3

3.  +23.4

4.  +27.2

5.  +40.4

 

Pretty much the expected order. I think Norway, Germany, Slovenia and Austria all have the Potential to win. Japan winning a medal would be a bit surprising to me. Slovenia being closer to Japan than to Germany is surprising to me. On the other hand Germany and Austria are the only nations with no „weak gender“, Slovenia/Norway/Japan all have a bit of a problem on the men‘s side currently. Poland is missing World-class women and Canada is missing World-class men, a combined Team of those two nations could win gold.

Edited February 25, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

25 minutes ago, phelps said:

just looking at the final results...

 

all 21 starters from the 5 top Countries () ended up in the top 23 positions of the final ranking...

 

and the top 8 jumpers are from only 3 Countries:  

 

the only 2 "intruders" are  Marusiak (17th) and  Deschwanden (19th)...

 

not exactly a sign of depth at the top of this game, I guess...

Personally i find it very surprising that the best ukrainian athlete finished higher than any athlete from Japan/Finland/Italy/France/USA. Not surprising that a sport that requires very expansive infrastructure has less competition. Obviously winter sports in general has less competition than summer sports. Still you also have summer sports with not much variety, for example slalom canoeing.

[OlympicsFan 783]

On the women's side it should be an easy gold for Prevc, on the men's side Austria might very well finish 1-4. Austrian men seem to be lightyears ahead of everyone else at this level.

 

Notable absances:

Women: Pagnier , Makhinia , Bjørseth

Men: Sadreev

 

I think all of them could have gone for a medal, Sadreev might have even been the favorite for gold.

[OlympicsFan 783]

What an insane result! This might be a bigger upset than Steven Bradbury winning gold. A team consisting of a bunch of has-beens (Fatner, Kraft) winning the gold medal ...

Austria having a better medal record than Norway/Germany after this season is just insane. I guess Austria can do no wrong here. Conchita Wurst probably could have won the downhill for them if they would have nominated her. This must be one of the biggest overperformances in olympic history. The amount of nobodies (Fatner, Stadlhuber, Strolz and Greiderer) winning medals for them is unbelievable.

 

Also: Geiger lost the gold for Germany. Horrible olympics for him and for german ski jumping overall.

[OlympicsFan 783]

I just added up the points of the 4 best athletes of each nation from today's competition*:

Slovenia: 1078.4

Germany: 1064.4

Austria: 1062.0

Norway: 1046.5

Japan: 1046.3

Poland: 1038.2

 

* I multiplied the first round results of Johannson and Tande by 2 (since they didn't qualify for the 2nd round)

[OlympicsFan 783]

At least Germany "finally" got its first bronze medal here ...

Still disappoining that the world cup leader only won 1 bronze medal. If Germany could somehow find a decent 4th athlete they would fight for gold in the team.

[OlympicsFan 783]

14 minutes ago, Ted said:

Go back to your sliding sports and leave us Norwegians alone, dude. We are a small country. We do need gold medals. (Hope you don't mind my teasing you, bro)

You already won more than your fair share of golds, leave some for the bigger countries. Also you won already more than enough golds in Tokyo.

[OlympicsFan 783]

8 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

Kobayashi vs Lindvik for gold. Then about five guys for bronze. Granerud too far back IMO.

I don't think that it will be a fight for gold. Norway doesn't need to win another gold ...

[OlympicsFan 783]

Would be very surprised if the final result wouldn't be:

Gold: Kobayashi

Silver: Lindvik

Bronze: Anyone currently ranked 3rd to 8th

[OlympicsFan 783]

I am absolutely Shocked that there are People who were surprised by this farce. I already said it during the men’s competition (you can go back and check): The goal obviously was to somehow gift Russia a medal and now that this goal has been accomplished, I hope that we can go back to having the best athletes on the top of the podium. And of course the people who were responsible hopefully won’t ever be allowed to destroy a competition again.

[OlympicsFan 783]

9 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

 

Phasing out normal hill from World Cup in the last 30 years tends to throw up strange results during global events. Rok Benkovic is World Champion & Lars Bystoel an Olympic Champion on normal hill despite having a total of ONE World Cup podium between them

 

At least nobody can say Kobayashi is an accidental Olympic Champion.

Nice to get a glimpse at the inner workings of your mind. The fact that you have to go back 16 years to find (in your mind) counterexamples doesn't lead to you  maybe questioning your own position ... !? To add to that:

1) A lot of rule changes have been made since then (which might be the reason why you had to go back so far)

2) Benkovic was 18 at the time he won a medal, not really surprising he didn't have a ton of world cup podiums

3) Bystoel a) won a world cup right before his olympic gold and b) fucked up his career by being a notorious drunk (so not surprising that he didn't really display great consistency)

[OlympicsFan 783]

13 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

 

And we also had ZERO World Cup events on normal hill during the season

If you think this is normal, then please look at past olympics. The guys who did well at the olympics always (at least at the last 3 olympics, i was too lazy to look back even further) had better world cup results.

 

Crazy how polish fans were (rightfully) expecting no medals and now they suddenly act as if this wasn't mostly down to luck/monetarily influenced decisions by the officials.

[OlympicsFan 783]

To sum up the absurdity of this competition:

In 2nd place: Manuel Fettner (Best result this season was 5th, only one other top 10 result, 18th in the world cup)

In 3rd place: David Kubacki (Best result this season was 13th, only one other top 20 result, 37th in the world cup)

In 4th place: Peter Prevc (Best result this season was 6th, only one other top 10 result, 19th in the world cup)

In 5th place: Evgenii Klimov (Best result this season was 5th, no other top 10 result, 31st in the world cup)

First competition this season without Norway/Germany on the podium. On average Norway/Germany combined for 1.75 podiums per competition, today they combined for top 5 results  ...

I think the last time none out of Germany/Norway/Slovenia made the podium was on February 1st 2020.

 

Conclusion: The places 2 through 5 combined for ZERO podiums this season & a grand total of 5 top 10 results. For all of them it was their (tied) best result this season. Anyone who defends this farce obviously doesn't care about fairness in sports.

[OlympicsFan 783]

15 minutes ago, FireRun said:

Keep calm. The only thing Ryoyu is afraid of is the yellow bib. He can't get the yellow bib in the olympics so he will be fine. 

Yes that and taking proper care of his teeth are his biggest weaknesses.

[OlympicsFan 783]

16 minutes ago, Vektor said:

Well, that's ski jumping, you need some luck here. But Kobayashi showed that you can deliver something great even under these circumstances, the rest of the top athletes fucked this event up just as much as the jury. 

 

Please look at the world cup results this season and show me when pretty almost all of the top guys (Granerud, Geiger, Eisenbichler, Lindvik and so on) were completely hopeless. It used to be like this a decade or so ago, but then they changed things and results at the top got a lot more consistent.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Complete scandal! I have never seen a competition where it was this obvious that the officials were bribed. Probably the hope was that some russian would steal a medal. If i wouldn't know any better, i would say that everyone involved is trying their best to make this the worst olympics ever. Complete shitshow so far.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Althaus sadly screwed by the conditions. None out of Althaus/Kramer/Takanashi winning gold doesn’t feel right, but in the end ski jumping is always a lottery to some degree.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Lucky lead for Althaus. Bogataj and Maybe the other slovenians as well are better than her today, But they Messed up their Landings. If their coach Goes down a Gate During the Final round and allows them to Show a Better Landing, then they should win Gold and Silver/Bronze.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Amazing competition. 5 teams with a chance for gold at halftime and Norway isn’t even one of them. Far more competitive than cross-country and Nordic combined team competitions.

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 minute ago, Monzanator said:

 

You can count on some flukes in the speed events, I can't possibly even imagine how bad the downhill slope will be. We are due another Tommy Moe or Daniela Ceccarelli gold medal out of nowhere

Here is my prediction for Austria:

Biathlon: 0 golds (obviously)

Nordic combined: 0 golds

Ski jumping: 1 or 2 golds

Alpine skiing: 2 golds at best

This year they won 7 golds in those sports.

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 minute ago, Monzanator said:

Given how nobody knows the Beijing hills it's very probable we have another fluke there too

Yes, but very unlikely that the new fluke is from the same nation as the current fluke. Also I was talking about alpine skiing, biathlon and Nordic combined as well.

[OlympicsFan 783]

The year of the insane fluke performances continues for Austria. They must hope that this year never ends. Too bad that they won’t come even remotely close to those results at the Olympics.

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 hour ago, Monzanator said:

 

Piotr Zyla has a new - much younger - girlfriend these days. He left his wife & kids for her. So he took the "retarding" into a whole new level. Guess a young mistress can do wonders to a man's confidence!

Way much info than I wanted ...

I guess his „retarding“ is just a trick to impress the ladies. 

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 hour ago, LowerSaxony said:

Oh don't mind me. I'm just this forum's bot, automatically replying when a certain level of bullshit is exceeded. Sure we'll talk again soon.

So you are constantly replying to your own comments? Sounds like a fun job ...

Also doesn’t seem smart admitting that you are a bot. Not sure what the forum policy is, but I think bots should be banned from the site?