ALB 9-6
AND 2-6
ARM 17-19
AUT 73-79
AZE 44-43
BEL 123-168
BIH 7-6
BUL 42-39
CRO 60-74
CYP 15-16
CZE 109-94
DEN 104-116
EST 33-22
FIN 45-62
FRA 380-540 hosts
GEO 33-30
GER 392-403
GBR 375-330
GRE 75-62
HUN 172-185
ISL 4-11
IRL 120-107
ISR 89-85
ITA 366-367
KOS 11-9
LAT 32-37
LIE 5-3
LTU 42-61
LUX 12-13
MLT 6-5
MDA 20-22
MON 6-7
MNE 34-33
NED 267-207
MKD 8-4
NOR 93-103
POL 206-210
POR 92-77
ROU 102-96
SMR 5-6
SRB 87-111
SVK 41-28
SLO 53-80
ESP 328-365
SWE 133-119
SUI 113-120
TUR 105-90
UKR 149-124
Many NOC stay more or less the same, but there are some quite big changes.
GREAT JOB!
In Polish national team I think that the biggest chance has Damian Durkacz as you wrote. But in my opinion Mateusz Bereźnicki (92 kg) is underrated, he is polish numeber 2 IMO.
It would be great if 5 POL W qualify, but I agree with rafalgorka that it would be hard. But I am sure about Wójcik and Rygielska. Szeremeta is a big talent and I also think she can make it.
ALB 9-6
AND 2-6
ARM 17-19
AUT 73-79
AZE 44-43
BEL 123-168
BIH 7-6
BUL 42-39
CRO 60-74
CYP 15-16
CZE 109-94
DEN 104-116
EST 33-22
FIN 45-62
FRA 380-540 hosts
GEO 33-30
GER 392-403
GBR 375-330
GRE 75-62
HUN 172-185
ISL 4-11
IRL 120-107
ISR 89-85
ITA 366-367
KOS 11-9
LAT 32-37
LIE 5-3
LTU 42-61
LUX 12-13
MLT 6-5
MDA 20-22
MON 6-7
MNE 34-33
NED 267-207
MKD 8-4
NOR 93-103
POL 206-210
POR 92-77
ROU 102-96
SMR 5-6
SRB 87-111
SVK 41-28
SLO 53-80
ESP 328-365
SWE 133-119
SUI 113-120
TUR 105-90
UKR 149-124
Many NOC stay more or less the same, but there are some quite big changes.
So I decided to try and figure out who would be the likely qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments and well many many hours, lots of procrastinating and a contender for the ugliest excel file ever created later I ended up ranking every boxer who competed at the continental qualifying tournaments and doing well some other stuff too.
Obviously these are just my rankings and well I will fully admit aren't especially accurate even if I did spend a significant amount of time thinking about every position but they should at least be the most accurate boxing rankings out there.
Just quickly in terms of boxing rankings that already exist the IBA have a ranking which is based on points system based on how far you get into their competitions. Even in a normal cycle where everyone was competing in the IBA's competitions they would still be woefully inaccurate because of the way they are calculated. They are also self perpetuating given that these rankings determine seedings which then effect how far into competitions boxers get. Anyway they are completely useless.
Then boxrec has a ranking system which is accurate enough and as I understand based on the quality of your opponents you beat/ lose to. It does fall into weird pitfalls where sometimes it overrates/ underrates one group of boxers and then when they keep beating/ losing to eachother and it gets stuck in a cycle and ends up with some weird rankings as a result. Also if you keep losing to good boxers without fighting bad ones or only beat bad boxers without ever fighting good ones it can end up with weird rankings. Finally while boxrec results database is very good it is still missing a lot of competitions particularly outside of Europe.
And then finally Taylor O'Higgins (worth a follow on twitter) used to do an amateur boxing rankings on the Fight site and he is a boxing coach so obviously knows a lot more about the actual boxing side of things than I would. He has mentioned doing the rankings again a couple of times on twitter but as far as I know hasn't posted them.
So ye hopefully these fill a bit of a hole and help with some of the qualifying/ medal projections on this site where some of the boxing related projections have been a bit hit and miss.
I'll only post the top 50 boxers in each weightclass and the top 60 or so in my country rankings but I have linked an Excel file with the complete rankings of every weight class and ranked every country plus the same stuff but broken down by continental if anyone wants to look at them.
I am worried that rugby W team will not qualify… that’s -12
i don’t see we can qualify in diving… that’s -3. Or maybe one individual - that would be -2
i don’t know much about rhythmic gymnastics but I don’t see it happen either… -1
i think we qualify 3 athletes in sports climbing - Ola Mirosław is already in and I think we get one more girl and one more boy in speed - that’s +1
50 quotas in athletics is a lot but I think it may be even more although we won’t be that strong like in Tokyo for sure, we were so lucky in Tokyo that things like that just can’t happen twice . I think we qualify a lot of relays and we send everyone who is in by world rankings . One possible drama is whether our heptathlete goes (Ada Sułek who is pregnant now but she is already qualified) . Heads (CEOs) of our Athletics Team don’t like her because she critized them heavily in Eugene WCH so as I know Polish reality now they will want her to prove that she’s in good form before the Olympics and they won’t send her if she’s not… but other will go without any extra tests…
so I say it’s rather 60 quota in athletics +10 but there will be surely 2 or 3 injuries so it’s +7 in the end . But only 2 medals in athletics this time and I won’t be surprised if there is no gold
NEWS Update Marco Schwarz❗️
Der Kärntner muss die Saison leider vorzeitig beenden 🙁 Er erleidet bei dem Sturz in Bormio 🇮🇹 einen Kreuzband- & Innenmeniskusriss sowie einen Knorpelschaden im rechten Knie! 🫣
As reported earlier, I’ll be going to Rio and Sao Paolo in mid-June. Also, it’s my last day in Bergen (and on my European trip), as I leave early afternoon tomorrow.
What are your trip plans for 24 if you don’t mind asking? Any places worth recommendations?
we would like to go to Venezuela in Feb but we are not sure it is safe there with this whole Guyana / Essequibo thing… I wonder what our users from America think about it, Brazilian users perhaps will find some spare time to write about it… thanks in advance!
in Sep after Paris Olympics we want to go to Balkans, probably Montenegro , we will see
Florida would be good option as well but we have to avoid the bad weather, hurricans etc… so maybe it’s in 25
1. Denmark
2. Johannes Boe
3. Kaori Sakamoto
4. Jon Rahm
5. Canada
6. France
7. USA
8. USA
9. Coco Gauff
10. Atlanta Braves
11. Carlos Alcaraz
12. Max Verstappen
Hey fellow Totallympians! Happy New Year! If you were around in January last year, you might remember I made an Olympic quota simulation based on data from 2022. Given how popular the post was, I've decided to do another update.
Over the last month, I've been gathering data from 2023 World Rankings and World Championships to try to see what each NOC team could look like in 2024. Once again, there are a few things to consider.
Unlike the previous edition, Russia and Belarus are INCLUDED in this simulation. Thanks to the IOC inviting them to join, it's made it really annoying to simulate. Currently, I have them projected for 68 athletes. The problem however is that I based my simulation mostly on World Rankings and World Championship results. As a result, they are excluded from a lot of sports where they would be expected to qualify (especially with combat sports). I would expect the final number to be much higher than 68.
North Korea is included in this simulation. They were absent from the previous edition.
Refugee athletes aren't included
Tuvalu is on the board this time! Last year, they were projected with 0 atheletes. This means that every NOC has at least one athlete qualified.
This time, I decided to put myself in the shoes of the Netherlands and New Zealand NOC selectors. I rejected around 40 quotas between the two NOC's where they would have qualified otherwise.
Simulated universality eligible NOC's are marked with an *. I took some more time to research the definition of an eligible NOC and as a result, Montenegro, Zambia, Iraq, Kuwait and Yemen are now marked as universality eligible in this simulation.
The number beside the team size in brackets shows the change in team size from the last simulation to this one
Some sports have their own Olympic rankings but that doesn't necessarily mean I used that to make my simulation. If the Olympic qualifying period started in 2022, then I used the Olympic rankings. If the qualifying period started after January 1, 2023, then I used the World Rankings. So for example, the athletics simulation was done using the world rankings instead of the "Road to Paris" rankings. Using the latter would result in athletes like Muzala Samukonga, Malaika Mihambo, and Kevin Mayer not being part of the simulation.
This time, I made sure to review each qualification document to make sure that I simulate each sport correctly. Last time for example, I was unaware of the continental quota limit in taekwondo so this time, it's all fixed. Of course, mistakes are still possible so please let me know if there's any.
Water Polo quotas have been changed from 12 athletes to 11 athletes to match the amended qualification document
So without further ado, let's get started. Please let me know if you have any thoughts!
The year in sports brought a lot of joy and emotional moments to Totallympics members around the world. As we say goodbye to our annual awards, here's hope that 2024 can also be a memorable year for all sports fans, as we eagerly wait for the next Olympic Games. For now, we'll remember the moments that brought us together in 2023, presenting this edition's theme song: "Fight Song", by American singer and songwriter Rachel Platten.
Thank you all! Have a great year and until the next Totallympics Awards!
That entire middle weekend is going to be incredible. Toss up for me between Day 8 and Day 9. Both have finals in swimming, track & field, and gymnastics. Plus it's the last 2 rounds of men's golf, the 2 cycling road races (that's going to be something special), all the finals in tennis. I will be locked in!!
My team sport predictions with tiers (I prefer doing it this way instead of just handing out G, S & B):
I'll put an * next to not already qualified teams (in some cases I'll be considering the chances of two teams that can't both qualify, eg. Slovenia and Greece in men's basketball).
These are tiers that grade the teams according to my perception of their chances to win a medal (ANY medal, not just gold). Though if I rate a team in the highest tier ("very likely to win a medal") it also means they're the main gold medal favorite for me.
If you see that a qualified team is not included in any tier then it means I believe the medal chances of that team are rather marginal.
I opted to skip 3x3 predictions cuz my knowledge is not deep enough (I follow the results but I'm not too aware about roster changes from tournament to tournament and such).
As for Ukraine, I would say Mykhailo Brudin and Olha Mashanienkova - these youngsters won medals at the youth European level and theoretically can qualify if they decide to focus on senior competitions
I am double-checking my predictions on day 2 and i am seriously thinking about changing my W 100 fly (swimming) guesses. I thought 1. Torri Huske USA 2. Zhang Yufei CHN. But now i would say 1. Zhang Yufei CHN and i am not sure i would say Huske gets a medal at all now.
But look - if i change that - overall medal table changes very significantly: now it is 1. USA with 45 golds and 2. CHN with 42 golds. After W 100 fly change it's 1. USA with 44 golds 2. China with 43 golds. Very close battle here.
Then imagine one more gold for CHN in diving (instead of UKR) and we have a tie 44-44
And then one more gold for CHN in weightlifting (because i predicted one of CHN athletes will DNF ) and China is on the top 45-44
Well, well, well - i won't say nothing new here - but this overall medal table battle in Paris will be so close that the outcome is simply unpredictable
And my first impression is that BLRUS absence works better for China - there are more events where Chinese chances for gold are bigger due to Russian staying at home than such events where US will get adavantage (e.g. artistic swimming, men's artistic gymnastics...)
ofc, i can't say for sure that i didn't make any mistakes in my maths, and my medal table may be wrong, i would have to count it again but honestly i don't want to do it now, maybe after double-checking all 16 days
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