OlympicsFan

The level is very high. Van Rouwendaal, Cunha and Kirpichnikova all out of the top 3.

Expected gold for Beck with an amazing strategy. Finishing top 3 is a huge (and in my opinion unfair) advantage. The top 3 can now already prepare for Paris. Personally i am happy that no nation won more than one quota. At times the race was very hard to follow (why does everyone have to wear a white cap ...), but the finish was very exciting. I think next year Grimes will be smarter and should be the one to beat in Paris.

Are you sure that Paltrinieri doesn't have the OQT? I think he swam 14:49 at the italian championships. Neither Van Rouwendaal nor Beck have the OQT and i am not really sure if they will try. I don't see either of them competing in the pool next year. On the women's side Jungblut and Tadeucchi missed the OQT by less than a second.

I don't think that i ever said the Hungary has a bad "conversion rate". I don't think that many other countries are doing a better job. I just didn't agree with your take that basically none of your top talents flop. What you did is basically define "top talent" as talents that became successful at senior level and of course with a definition like that no top talent ever flops. If they don't do anything at senior level, you can just say that they weren't top talents. Mihalyvari-Farkas (and Kesely) could still do good things at senior level. Someone like Steenbergen was an amazing talent before disappearing for 3 or 4 years just to come back stronger than before out of nowhere. I also think that Szilagyi is a special case and you can't blame her, considering all the "trouble" she had with her father. Personally i don't like it when someone who tries to improve things (with positive criticism) just gets told that he/she can go elsewhere if he/she doesn't like the status quo. With an approach like that you stop yourself from improving. I think the hungarian federation should also ask themselves if they can (still) allow to lose some of their best athletes relatively early. Gyurta was pretty much cooked at 25 and we will see what happens with Milak. With a bit less pressure/more cooperation they might actually be able to "get more medals out of their athletes". In addition to that it might not be a good sign when two of your best athletes (Hosszu and Kos) feel the need to "flee" to another country ... (Germany has the same problem with athletes like Artem Selin, Rafael Miroslaw or Anna Elendt)

[hide] Event & Date Athletes Gold Silver Bronze Men's 400m Freestyle Day 1 July 23 2023 Samuel Short X Elijah Winnington Felix Auboeck Guilherme Costa Olivier Klemet Lukas Martens X Daniel Wiffen Marco De Tullio Kim Woomin Antonio Djakovic Ahmed Hafnaoui X Kieran Smith Any Other Athlete Women's 400m Freestyle Day 1 July 23 2023 Lani Pallister Ariarne Titmus X Summer McIntosh X Li Bingjie Any Other Chinese Athlete Isabel Gose Siobhan Haughey Simona Quadarella Miyu Namba Erika Fairweather Katie Ledecky X Bella Sims Any Other Athlete Men's 400m Ind. Medley Day 1 July 23 2023 Brendon Smith Shun Wang Leon Marchand X Duncan Scott Any Hungarian Athlete Alberto Razzetti Tomuru Honda Daiya Seto Lewis Clareburt Carson Foster X Chase Kalisz X Any Other Athlete Women's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 July 23 2023 Australia X Canada China X France Great Britain Italy Japan Netherlands Sweden United States X Any Other Nation Men's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 July 23 2023 Australia X Brazil China France Great Britain X Hungary Italy Japan United States X Any Other Nation Men's 100m Breaststroke Day 2 July 24 2023 Zac Stubblety-Cook Qin Haiyang X Yan Zibei Lucas Matzerat James Wilby Nicolo Martinenghi X Federico Poggio Ippei Watanabe Arno Kamminga Berkay Ogretir Nic Fink X Josh Matheny Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Butterfly Day 2 July 24 2023 Emma McKeon Brianna Throssell Lana Pudar Margaret McNeil X Wang Yichun Zhang Yufei X Marie Wattel Angelina Kohler Louise Hansson Sarah Sjoestroem Torri Huske X Gretchen Walsh Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Butterfly Day 2 July 24 2023 Maxime Grousset Luca Armbruster Jacob Peters Benjamin Proud Szebasztian Szabo Thomas Ceccon Takeshi Kawamoto Nyls Korstanje Diogo Matos Ribeiro Dylan Carter Dare Rose Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Ind. Medley Day 2 July 24 2023 Jenna Forrester Kaylee McKeown X Summer McIntosh Sydney Pickrem Yu Yiting Katie Shanahan Abbie Wood Anastasia Gorbenko Sara Franceschi Marrit Steenbergen Kate Douglass X Alex Walsh X Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Freestyle Day 3 July 25 2023 Felix Auboeck Pan Zhanle X Lukas Martens Tom Dean Matthew Richards Katsuhiro Matsumoto David Popovici X Hwang Sunwoo X Antonio Djakovic Luke Hobson Kieran Smith Any Other Athlete Women's 1500m Freestyle Day 3 July 25 2023 Moesha Johnson Lani Pallister X Beatriz Dizotti Li Bingjie Gao Weizhong Anastasiia Kirpichnikova Isabel Gose Viktoria Mihalyvari-Farkas Simona Quadarella Katie Grimes X Katie Ledecky X Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Backstroke Day 3 July 25 2023 Mollie O'Callaghan Kaylee McKeown X Kylie Masse Ingrid Wilm Wan Letian Wang Xueer Medi Eira Harris Margherita Panziera Kira Toussaint Katharine Berkoff X Regan Smith X Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Backstroke Day 3 July 25 2023 Xu Jiayu X Yohann Ndoye-Brouard Mewen Tomac Ole Braunschweig Apostolos Christou Thomas Ceccon X Ryosuke Irie Ksawery Masiuk Robert Glinta Hunter Armstrong X Ryan Murphy Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Breaststroke Day 3 July 25 2023 Tang Qianting Anna Elendt Mona McSharry Lisa Angiolini Benedetta Pilato Reona Aoki Ruta Meilutyte X Tes Schouten Tatjana Schoenmaker Lara Van Niekerk Lydia Jacoby X Lilly King X Any Other Athlete Men's 800m Freestyle Day 4 July 26 2023 Samuel Short X Elijah Winnington Felix Auboeck Guilherme Costa Lukas Martens Sven Schwarz Daniel Jervis Daniel Wiffen Gregorio Paltrinieri X Mykhailo Romanchuk Bobby Finke X Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Freestyle Day 4 July 26 2023 Mollie O'Callaghan X Ariarne Titmus X Summer McIntosh X Li Bingjie Yang Junxuan Freya Anderson Siobhan Haughey Marrit Steenbergen Erika Fairweather Bella Sims Claire Weinstein Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Butterfly Day 4 July 26 2023 Ilya Kharun Chen Juner Leon Marchand X Ricardo Marton Alberto Razzetti Tomoru Honda X Teppei Morimoto Krzysztof Chmielewski Noe Ponti Carson Foster X Thomas Heilmann Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Breaststroke Day 4 July 26 2023 Sam Williamson Bernhard Reitshammer Joao Gomes Junior Qin Haiyang Sun Jiajun Lucas Matzerath Simone Cerasuolo Nicolo Martinenghi Yuya Hinomoto Arno Kamminga Nic Fink Any Other Athlete Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay Day 4 July 26 2023 Australia X Canada China X France Great Britain Hungary Italy Japan Netherlands Sweden United States X Any Other Nation Women's 200m Butterfly Day 5 July 27 2023 Elizabeth Dekkers Lana Pudar X Summer McIntosh X Zhang Yufei Helena Rosendahl Bach Emily Large Laura Stephens Hiroko Makino Airi Mitsui Lindsay Looney Regan Smith X Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Freestyle Day 5 July 27 2023 Kyle Chalmers X Flynn Southam Guilherme Caribe Joshua Liendo Edwards Pan Zhanle X Maxime Grousset Lewis Edward Burras Nandor Nemeth Alessandro Miressi Katsuhiro Matsumoto David Popovici X Jack Alexy Chris Guiliano Any Other Athlete Women's 50m Backstroke Day 5 July 27 2023 Kaylee McKeown Mollie O'Callaghan Kylie Masse Ingrid Wilm Wan Letian Wang Xueer Analia Pigree Medi Eira Harris Maaike De Waard Katharine Berkoff Regan Smith Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Ind. Medley Day 5 July 27 2023 Finlay Knox Qin Haiyang Wang Shun X Leon Marchand X Tom Dean Duncan Scott Hubert Kos Alberto Razzetti So Ogata Daiya Seto Lewis Clareburt Shaine Casas Carson Foster X Any Other Athlete Women's 4x200m Free Relay Day 5 July 27 2023 Australia X Brazil Canada China X France Great Britain Italy Japan United States X Any Other Nation Women's 100m Freestyle Day 6 July 28 2023 Mollie O'Callaghan X Emma McKeon X Cheng Yujie Any French Athlete Freya Anderson Anna Hopkin Siobhan Haughey Marrit Steenbergen X Sarah Sjoestroem Kate Douglass Abbey Weitzeil Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Breaststroke Day 6 July 28 2023 Ye Shiwen Thea Blomsterberg Rena Aoki Runa Imai Any Italian Athlete Kotryna Teterevkova Tes Schouten X Kaylene Corbett Tatjana Schoenmaker X Lisa Mamie Kate Douglass Lilly King X Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Backstroke Day 6 July 28 2023 Bradley Woodward Xu Jiayu Yohann Ndoye-Brouard Luke Greenbank Broadie Paul Williams Apostolos Christou Hubert Kos X Benedek Bendeguz Kovacs Ryosuke Irie Roman Mityukov Destin Lasco X Ryan Murphy X Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Breaststroke Day 6 July 28 2023 Zac Stubblety-Cook X Dong Zhihao Qin Haiyang Leon Marchand X James Wilby Anton Mckee Shoma Sato Ippei Watanabe Caspar Corbeau Arno Kamminga Erik Persson Matt Fallon X Josh Matheny Any Other Athlete Men's 4x200m Free Relay Day 6 July 28 2023 Australia X Brazil China Germany Great Britain X Hungary Italy Japan United States X Any Other Nation Women's 50m Butterfly Day 7 July 29 2023 Yu Yuting Zhang Yufei Farida Osman Melanie Henique Marie Wattel Angelina Kohler Anna Ntountounaki Rikako Ikkee Ai Soma Maaike De Waard Sara Junevik Sarah Sjoestroem Torri Huske Gretchen Walsh Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Freestyle Day 7 July 29 2023 Cameron McEvoy X Guilherme Caribe Joshua Liendo Edwards Kregor Zirk Maxime Grousset Florent Manaudou X Lewis Edward Burras Benjamin Proud X Kristian Gkolomeev Szebasztian Szabo Any Italian Athlete Thomas De Boer Jack Alexy Ryand Held Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Butterfly Day 7 July 29 2023 Simon Bucher Joshua Liendo Edwards X James Guy Jacob Thomas Taylor Peters Tomel Frankel Katsuhiro Matsumoto Naoki Mizunuma Jakub Majerski Noe Ponti Thomas Heilmann Dare Rose X Any Other Athlete X Women's 200m Backstroke Day 7 July 29 2023 Kaylee McKeown X Kylie Masse Summer McIntosh Liu Yaxin Peng Xuwei Freya Constance Colbert Katie Shanahan Any Hungarian Athlete Anastasia Gorbenko Margherita Panziera Regan Smith X Rhyan White X Any Other Athlete Women's 800m Freestyle Day 7 July 29 2023 Lani Pellister Ariarne Titmus X Summer McIntosh Li Bingjie Yang Peiqi Anastasiia Kirpichnikova Isabel Gose Simona Quadarella X Erika Fairweather Any Turkish Athlete Jillian Cox Katie Ledecky X Any Other Athlete Mixed 4x100m Free Relay Day 7 July 29 2023 Australia Brazil Canada China France Great Britain Hungary Japan Netherlands United States Any Other Nation Men's 50m Backstroke Day 8 July 30 2023 Isaac Cooper Xu Jiayu Ole Braunschweig Apostolos Christou Thomas Ceccon Andrew Jeffcoat Marcin Goraj Ksawery Masiuk Robert Glinta Hunter Armstrong Justin Ress Any Other Athlete Women's 50m Breaststroke Day 8 July 30 2023 Jhennifer Conceicao Tang Qianting Eneli Jefimova Anna Elendt Imogen Louise Clark Mona McSharry Arianna Castiglioni Benedetta Pilato Reona Aoki Ruta Meilutyte Lara Van Niekerk Lydia Jacoby Lilly King Any Other Athlete Men's 1500m Freestyle Day 8 July 30 2023 Samuel Short Guilherme Costa Fei Liwei Damian Joly Lukas Martens Florian Wellbrock X Daniel Jervis Kristof Rasovszky Daniel Wiffen X Gregorio Paltrinieri Henrik Christiansen Mykhailo Romanchuk Charlie Clark Bobby Finke X Any Other Athlete Women's 50m Freestyle Day 8 July 30 2023 Shayna Jack Emma McKeon X Cheng Yujie Zhang Yufei Any French Athlete Anna Hopkin Marrit Steenbergen Katarzyna Wasick Michelle Coleman Sarah Sjostrom X Gretchen Walsh Abbey Weitzeil X Any Other Athlete Women's 400m Ind. Medley Day 8 July 30 2023 Jenna Forrester Kaylee McKeown Summer McIntosh X Yu Yiting Freya Constance Colbert Katie Shanahan Sara Franceschi Yui Ohasi Ageha Tanigawa Katie Grimes X Alex Walsh X Any Other Athlete Men's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 8 July 30 2023 Australia Brazil Canada China X France Great Britain Hungary Italy X Japan Netherlands United States X Any Other Nation Women's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 8 July 30 2023 Australia X Canada China X France Great Britain Hungary Italy Japan Netherlands Sweden United States X Any Other Nation [/hide]

How would they be favored over the US? Everyone knows that Canada has by far the second best guard rotation, but their wings (without Wiggins) and bigs are not too impressive ...

I think you have an interesting definition of "top talent". Szilagyi won gold at the 2014 youth olympics as a 17 year old with 2:06.5, which was a junior world record if i remember correctly. You know who finished 1.5 seconds behind her in silver position? Zhang Yufei ... Mihalyvari-Farkas also won gold at the 2022 european championships in the 400 IM as an 18 year old. Kesely won 2 silver medals and a bronze at the 2018 european championships as a 16 year old. Gabor Zombori won gold at the 2019 junior world championships in the 400 free as a 16 year old with a time of 3:46.0. Not sure what Hosszu did as a junior that was (much) more impressive?

Very weird take ... 1) "He still should EASILY take gold" + "Sotero being only true CONTENDER" ...? 2) How can you call Sotero a contender but not Richter? (Personally i think that neither of them is a contender for gold)

That might be the explanation, although she already was going backwards in the 200 free way before the pandemic. Maybe she focused too much on distance and lost her speed. It looks as if she might have "rediscovered" some of her speed recently, so there might very well still be hope for her. Her progression in the 200/400/800/1500 free: 200 free: 2016: 1:57.96 2017: 1:57.10 2018: 1:57.88 2019: 1:58.14 --- 2020: 2:00.13 2021: 2:00.15 2022: 1:58.78 400 free: 2016: 4:08.10 2017: 4:05.75 2018: 4:03.57 2019: 4:01.31 --- 2020: 4:09.05 2021: 4:05.35 2022: 4:07.74 800 free: 2016: 8:34.37 2017: 8:30.62 2018: 8:22.01 2019: 8:24.25 --- 2020: 8:37.45 2021: 8:26.20 2022: 8:35.74 1500 free: 2016: 16:45.15 2017: 16:11.25 2018: 16:03.22 2019: 15:54.48 --- 2020: 16:34.43 2021: 15:59.80 2022: 16:22.89 I remember that we had a similar discussion some years ago about Mihalyvari-Farkas, where i asked whether she would keep progressing or end up like many (female) hungarian talents before her. Back then you were optimistic and didn't agree that (too) many hungarian talents fade out too quickly. Sadly it looks as if Mihalyvari-Farkas might be heading in the same direction, but maybe she will surprise us/me at worlds. Also not sure how optimistic we can/should be about the future of other talents like Veres, Fabian, Gyurinovics, Nyiradi, Molnar, Ugrai, Flück, Komoroczy, Hathazi, Abraham, Jackl and Padar? Hopefully att least Padar and Jackl will become world class. On the men's side Kovats, Magda and Betlehem look promising.

4 medals seems like an insane expectation, 1 might be possible. More interesting question would be: How many top 8 finishes do you expect (individual olympic events only)? Maybe Kapas (200 fly) Maybe Mihalyvari-Farkas (400 IM + maybe 1500 free) Maybe Szabo (50 free) Maybe Nemeth (100 free) Kos (200 back + maybe 200 IM) Maybe Kovacs (200 back) Maybe Hollo (400 IM) Maybe Marton (200 fly) I wouldn't be shocked if you wouldn't have a single top 8 finish on the women's side. I think 6 top 8 finishes would already be a good result for Hungary based on the entry lists. The US and Australia are probably the only nations that could lose athletes like Milak, Cseh and Hosszu and still have multiple medal contenders. Of course it doesn't help that many of your promising talents haven't progressed as expected (Kesely, Szilagyi, Mihalyvari-Farkas, Zombori).

Diejenigen die bei der WM die Top 4 erreichen werden deutlich mehr Zeit haben sich gezielt auf Olympia vorzubereiten. Märtens und Wellbrock sollten es schaffen, eventuell auch Gose und/oder Matzerath. Miroslaw, Klemet, Köhler und leider auch Elendt dürften keine realistische Chance haben. Was passiert eigentlich, wenn 2 Athleten im gleichen Event (Wellbrock und Märtens über 800/1500 m Freistil) die Top 4 erreichen? Wird dann kein anderer Athlet (Schwarz/Klemet) mehr die Möglichkeit haben sich über diese Strecke zu qualifizieren? Wäre extrem bitter für Klemet/Schwarz, beide haben sich in letzter Zeit stark verbessert und könnten nächstes Jahr besser als Wellbrock/Märtens über die 800/1500 m Freistil sein. Edit: Es könnte theoretisch sogar sein, dass über alle Strecken ab 400 m Freistil beide Startplätze bereits nach der WM vergeben sind. In der Realität dürfte es vor allem an Klemet (400 m Freistil) scheitern, aber trotzdem gefällt mir diese Regelung nicht. Wenn Sven Schwarz nächstes Jahr Weltrekord über 800/1500 m Freistil schwimmen würde, könnten man ihn trotzdem nicht nominieren ... Wenn auch im Freiwasser beide Startplätze nach der WM vergeben sein sollten, hätte er nicht einmal mehr diese theoretische Ausweichmöglichkeit. Ich hoffe, dass dadurch nicht seine Entwicklung "abgewürgt" wird.

That's a win for France.

I just read that VVD wants to nominate Yesilgöz. I can't believe it, this must be a very bad joke. A right-wing party nominating someone born in Turkey ... Also after recently watching an interview with her, i am absolutely convinced that she is heavily "influenced" by drug cartels. It would be by far the best for the Netherlands to not allow her in any important position, otherwise they might as well just officially hand over the country to the cartels.

Not sure how this is your conclusion. As far as i know he resigned because he couldn't agree on a more strict immigration strategy with the other parties. If anything i would assume/hope that their immigration strategy will get more strict. Also i think that Austria is also blocking Bulgaria and Romania.

Gold for Alekna is a lock, he has no competition. 3000 m SC is a different topic, she might very well only win a minor medal.

We could really use someone like her. She would be by far our best hurdler.

In a vacuum she should definitely swim the 400 free and the 400 IM. She is the clear favorite in both. I think of the remaining 3 events (200 free, 200 fly, 200 IM), the 200 IM is the one where she has the worst chance of winning a medal, but the best chance of winning gold, while the 200 fly is the one where she probably has the worst chance of winning gold. It sounds crazy to drop an event where she is the world leader (while keeping 2 events (200 free and 200 fly) where she isn't the world leader), but it probably is the smart decision. Not sure how much influence the relays should have on her decision. Don't really see the point of her swimming any relays. In the men's 4 x 100 m free relay there are at least 7 stronger nations, maybe Canada can upset Japan for the 8th spot. In the men's 4 x 100 m medley there are also at least 7 stronger nations and i think even Germany is better on paper.

Seems like one of the most implausible events to have a slovakian athlete as number 1, given that Afrifah (who ran 19.96 s last year) is also entered.

Not sure how much sense that makes, given that the entry list was released some time ago (and therefore doesn't include performances from last weekend).

Would be amazing, but I don’t see any indication that it will happen. I think they almost beat Poland during the group stage, but beating Poland and China/Brazil back-to-back would be a huge surprise for this team. I think they are well coached and have some promising players, but I don’t think that they have the quality to consistently perform at the highest level. Not sure what happened with Serbia (maybe they played with their second team?), but Germany wouldn’t have made it past the group stage if Serbia would have been remotely close to their normal level.

Don’t see how this is comparable. France is and always will be lightyears away from the US in basketball. They have been producing a lot of promising players for a long time. If they keep their production up they could overtake Canada in terms of talent. When you talk about their talent pool/junior results you also have to mention that in the past 10 years or so pretty much all their elite talents (Ntilikina, Hayes, Doumoubya) have been complete busts at NBA level. They produce tons of great athletes that lack skill and therefore only/mainly dominate at European/junior level when they face lesser athletes.

I think the US might be even more dominant in the future than they are right now. On both sides they have multiple „freak talents“. Men: Heilman, Winkler, Casas, Foster, Williamson, Diehl … Women: Douglass, Walsh, Sims, Grimes, Weinstein, Hayes, Curzan, Huske, Jacoby, Smith … Also interesting to „finally“ see an American teen phenom in the longer freestyle events on the men’s side. Recently the track record of teen phenoms in those events hasn’t been great (Grgic, Galossi). I guess as a Canadian you are probably hoping for a Mijatovic vs. Kim rivalry?

Did you only look at the times in the final (for both Australia and the US)? I think there were some faster times in prelims. Also: a) O’Callaghan might not compete at worlds. b) I think the US relays might look „a bit“ different at worlds. I expect at least Ryan Held and Torri Huske to swim in the final. c) Too bad that we didn’t get to see Heilman at 100 % in the 100 free (he swam the 200 fly earlier in the same session). d) Too bad that teen phenom Kaii Winkler (who sadly decided against representing Germany internationally) got injured shortly before trials. He might have had a shot at making the team.

Yes, I think the German federation is very lucky to have him. Without him the German federation also wouldn’t have been able to hire Lisa Thomaidis for the women’s team (it was him who made her aware of the job opening), which very likely would have meant no qualification for the OQT. In general Germany should hire more foreign coaches, especially in sports where German coaches have proven again and again that they don’t know how to coach athletes to compete at world level. For example Germany used to be elite in pole vault and shot put, but nowadays German coaches have no clue how to develop world class athletes in those disciplines. Herbert did a great job at the Euros last year, hopefully he will be able to again coach the team to the same level at Worlds this year. On paper the team (so far … ) is certainly better than it was last year (addition of Kleber/Bonga/M. Wagner + F. Wagner being one year older). Germany is missing athletic wings (like pretty much all other nations except the US/Canada) and maybe one more elite ball-handler (of course having a more physical big like Hartenstein also would have helped). I think the roster justifies considering Germany at least a top 8 team (behind the US, Canada, Australia, Spain, France, Serbia and maybe Greece). The US and Canada are obviously better on paper if they play at full strength, but in my opinion all the other teams I mentioned aren’t lightyears ahead of Germany in terms of individual quality.

Apparently Paolo Banchero has committed to play for at the World Cup this year. Unexpected decision, but unlike Reaves I actually see him as good enough to make the Olympic team for the US in the future.