OlympicsFan

Not sure it makes sense to lead this discussion with you if you feel attacked by someone not praising France ... Germany won bronze last year with a completely new team, which as well was a clear sign that the field isn't very strong. I don't have to ask myself why Germany didn't qualify. Germany just doesn't have a strong team and i don't remember Barthel ever achieving much in individual competitions. GB (and of course China) are clearly ahead of the rest (France, Italy, USA, Germany, Mexico). If we would contest this competition ten times under the same circumstances, then all of those nations (France, Italy, USA, Germany, Mexico) would probably win bronze at least once, because none of those teams has much consistency. I was also talking about diving as a whole and men's 3 m synchronised is only one out of eight competitions, so this criticism wasn't focused on France, but the general level. It would be nice if you could answer me the following questions? 1) Don't you think that the absence of Russia (and the fact that ukrainian athletes can't prepare optimally) lowered the level? 2) Don't you agree that Mexico and the US used to be stronger in (men's) diving? 3) Don't you think that the dominance of China harmed the sport by creating the impression that it is pretty much impossible for athletes from other nations to win gold?

Maybe that is the goal ... IAA ... world athletics should maybe take notes (if they want to get rid of race walking)

1) I don't agree that they had a better team on paper last time. 2) They have a new coach. 3) How does/did Canada impress you when the US didn't? I am exaggerating a bit, but has Canada ever won a game at the basketball world cup ... ?

I think the most likey candidates are Nemeth (100 free), Telegdy (200 back), Zombori (400 IM), Padar (200/400 free), Fabian (1500 free), Mihalyvari-Farkas (400 IM/1500 free), Burian (200 back), Molnar (200 back), Kapas (200 fly, maybe 400/800 free), Sebestyen (200 IM), Jackl (400 IM) and maybe Magda (100 free). In the end you should have at least 16 athletes with an OQT.

On the one hand that is good to hear, on the other hand it kind of kills the sport of open water swimming. The easier it gets to switch/transition, the more "open water specialists" will disappear. Open water swimming might turn into another pure distance swimming event.

I don't think that Beck needs any magic. She only narrowly missed gold last year and won 2 of the 3 world cups this year. She is clearly the best in the world right now if we exclude Grimes. If Beck is at 100 %, then noone except Grimes and maybe Kirpichnikova should beat her. The question is whether other athletes will switch from the 1500 m. Athletes like Quadarella, Pallister, Gose, Johnson or one of the fast american girls (Weinstein/Cox?) could see this as their only chance to win a gold medal.

France winning a medal out of nowhere shows how weak most events in diving are. Men's 3 m: Two strong chinese + Laugher -> Difficult to win a medal Men's 10 m: Two strong chinese + maybe Tamai/Sereda -> Difficult, but possible to win a medal Men's 3 m synchronised: China and GB are strong, but all other teams are rather weak -> Not too difficult to win a medal Men's 10 m synchronised: China is strong, but all other teams aren't very impressive -> Not too difficult to win a medal Women's 3 m: Two strong chinese -> Bronze is pretty open Women's 10 m: Two strong chinese -> Bronze is pretty open Women's 3 m synchronised: China is strong, but all other teams are rather weak -> Not too difficult to win a medal Women's 10 m synchronised: China is strong, but all other teams are rather weak -> Not too dificult to win a medal The absence of Russia has opened up a lot of opportunities. Also i have the feeling that Mexico (overall), the US (mainly on the men's side) and GB (mainly on the women's side) used to be stronger. I think if one nation would really focus on it, they could win 5 or 6 "easy" medals in diving. Not sure how many sports there are were you can get 5 or 6 medals that "easily".

First gold for Germany in the women's 10 km since 2001 when this event was contested for the first time ... in Fukuoka of all places. Also might be interesting to know that Beck trains in the same group as Paltrinieri ... maybe a good sign for him.

The level is very high. Van Rouwendaal, Cunha and Kirpichnikova all out of the top 3.

Expected gold for Beck with an amazing strategy. Finishing top 3 is a huge (and in my opinion unfair) advantage. The top 3 can now already prepare for Paris. Personally i am happy that no nation won more than one quota. At times the race was very hard to follow (why does everyone have to wear a white cap ...), but the finish was very exciting. I think next year Grimes will be smarter and should be the one to beat in Paris.

Are you sure that Paltrinieri doesn't have the OQT? I think he swam 14:49 at the italian championships. Neither Van Rouwendaal nor Beck have the OQT and i am not really sure if they will try. I don't see either of them competing in the pool next year. On the women's side Jungblut and Tadeucchi missed the OQT by less than a second.

I don't think that i ever said the Hungary has a bad "conversion rate". I don't think that many other countries are doing a better job. I just didn't agree with your take that basically none of your top talents flop. What you did is basically define "top talent" as talents that became successful at senior level and of course with a definition like that no top talent ever flops. If they don't do anything at senior level, you can just say that they weren't top talents. Mihalyvari-Farkas (and Kesely) could still do good things at senior level. Someone like Steenbergen was an amazing talent before disappearing for 3 or 4 years just to come back stronger than before out of nowhere. I also think that Szilagyi is a special case and you can't blame her, considering all the "trouble" she had with her father. Personally i don't like it when someone who tries to improve things (with positive criticism) just gets told that he/she can go elsewhere if he/she doesn't like the status quo. With an approach like that you stop yourself from improving. I think the hungarian federation should also ask themselves if they can (still) allow to lose some of their best athletes relatively early. Gyurta was pretty much cooked at 25 and we will see what happens with Milak. With a bit less pressure/more cooperation they might actually be able to "get more medals out of their athletes". In addition to that it might not be a good sign when two of your best athletes (Hosszu and Kos) feel the need to "flee" to another country ... (Germany has the same problem with athletes like Artem Selin, Rafael Miroslaw or Anna Elendt)

[hide] Event & Date Athletes Gold Silver Bronze Men's 400m Freestyle Day 1 July 23 2023 Samuel Short X Elijah Winnington Felix Auboeck Guilherme Costa Olivier Klemet Lukas Martens X Daniel Wiffen Marco De Tullio Kim Woomin Antonio Djakovic Ahmed Hafnaoui X Kieran Smith Any Other Athlete Women's 400m Freestyle Day 1 July 23 2023 Lani Pallister Ariarne Titmus X Summer McIntosh X Li Bingjie Any Other Chinese Athlete Isabel Gose Siobhan Haughey Simona Quadarella Miyu Namba Erika Fairweather Katie Ledecky X Bella Sims Any Other Athlete Men's 400m Ind. Medley Day 1 July 23 2023 Brendon Smith Shun Wang Leon Marchand X Duncan Scott Any Hungarian Athlete Alberto Razzetti Tomuru Honda Daiya Seto Lewis Clareburt Carson Foster X Chase Kalisz X Any Other Athlete Women's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 July 23 2023 Australia X Canada China X France Great Britain Italy Japan Netherlands Sweden United States X Any Other Nation Men's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 July 23 2023 Australia X Brazil China France Great Britain X Hungary Italy Japan United States X Any Other Nation Men's 100m Breaststroke Day 2 July 24 2023 Zac Stubblety-Cook Qin Haiyang X Yan Zibei Lucas Matzerat James Wilby Nicolo Martinenghi X Federico Poggio Ippei Watanabe Arno Kamminga Berkay Ogretir Nic Fink X Josh Matheny Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Butterfly Day 2 July 24 2023 Emma McKeon Brianna Throssell Lana Pudar Margaret McNeil X Wang Yichun Zhang Yufei X Marie Wattel Angelina Kohler Louise Hansson Sarah Sjoestroem Torri Huske X Gretchen Walsh Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Butterfly Day 2 July 24 2023 Maxime Grousset Luca Armbruster Jacob Peters Benjamin Proud Szebasztian Szabo Thomas Ceccon Takeshi Kawamoto Nyls Korstanje Diogo Matos Ribeiro Dylan Carter Dare Rose Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Ind. Medley Day 2 July 24 2023 Jenna Forrester Kaylee McKeown X Summer McIntosh Sydney Pickrem Yu Yiting Katie Shanahan Abbie Wood Anastasia Gorbenko Sara Franceschi Marrit Steenbergen Kate Douglass X Alex Walsh X Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Freestyle Day 3 July 25 2023 Felix Auboeck Pan Zhanle X Lukas Martens Tom Dean Matthew Richards Katsuhiro Matsumoto David Popovici X Hwang Sunwoo X Antonio Djakovic Luke Hobson Kieran Smith Any Other Athlete Women's 1500m Freestyle Day 3 July 25 2023 Moesha Johnson Lani Pallister X Beatriz Dizotti Li Bingjie Gao Weizhong Anastasiia Kirpichnikova Isabel Gose Viktoria Mihalyvari-Farkas Simona Quadarella Katie Grimes X Katie Ledecky X Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Backstroke Day 3 July 25 2023 Mollie O'Callaghan Kaylee McKeown X Kylie Masse Ingrid Wilm Wan Letian Wang Xueer Medi Eira Harris Margherita Panziera Kira Toussaint Katharine Berkoff X Regan Smith X Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Backstroke Day 3 July 25 2023 Xu Jiayu X Yohann Ndoye-Brouard Mewen Tomac Ole Braunschweig Apostolos Christou Thomas Ceccon X Ryosuke Irie Ksawery Masiuk Robert Glinta Hunter Armstrong X Ryan Murphy Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Breaststroke Day 3 July 25 2023 Tang Qianting Anna Elendt Mona McSharry Lisa Angiolini Benedetta Pilato Reona Aoki Ruta Meilutyte X Tes Schouten Tatjana Schoenmaker Lara Van Niekerk Lydia Jacoby X Lilly King X Any Other Athlete Men's 800m Freestyle Day 4 July 26 2023 Samuel Short X Elijah Winnington Felix Auboeck Guilherme Costa Lukas Martens Sven Schwarz Daniel Jervis Daniel Wiffen Gregorio Paltrinieri X Mykhailo Romanchuk Bobby Finke X Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Freestyle Day 4 July 26 2023 Mollie O'Callaghan X Ariarne Titmus X Summer McIntosh X Li Bingjie Yang Junxuan Freya Anderson Siobhan Haughey Marrit Steenbergen Erika Fairweather Bella Sims Claire Weinstein Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Butterfly Day 4 July 26 2023 Ilya Kharun Chen Juner Leon Marchand X Ricardo Marton Alberto Razzetti Tomoru Honda X Teppei Morimoto Krzysztof Chmielewski Noe Ponti Carson Foster X Thomas Heilmann Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Breaststroke Day 4 July 26 2023 Sam Williamson Bernhard Reitshammer Joao Gomes Junior Qin Haiyang Sun Jiajun Lucas Matzerath Simone Cerasuolo Nicolo Martinenghi Yuya Hinomoto Arno Kamminga Nic Fink Any Other Athlete Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay Day 4 July 26 2023 Australia X Canada China X France Great Britain Hungary Italy Japan Netherlands Sweden United States X Any Other Nation Women's 200m Butterfly Day 5 July 27 2023 Elizabeth Dekkers Lana Pudar X Summer McIntosh X Zhang Yufei Helena Rosendahl Bach Emily Large Laura Stephens Hiroko Makino Airi Mitsui Lindsay Looney Regan Smith X Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Freestyle Day 5 July 27 2023 Kyle Chalmers X Flynn Southam Guilherme Caribe Joshua Liendo Edwards Pan Zhanle X Maxime Grousset Lewis Edward Burras Nandor Nemeth Alessandro Miressi Katsuhiro Matsumoto David Popovici X Jack Alexy Chris Guiliano Any Other Athlete Women's 50m Backstroke Day 5 July 27 2023 Kaylee McKeown Mollie O'Callaghan Kylie Masse Ingrid Wilm Wan Letian Wang Xueer Analia Pigree Medi Eira Harris Maaike De Waard Katharine Berkoff Regan Smith Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Ind. Medley Day 5 July 27 2023 Finlay Knox Qin Haiyang Wang Shun X Leon Marchand X Tom Dean Duncan Scott Hubert Kos Alberto Razzetti So Ogata Daiya Seto Lewis Clareburt Shaine Casas Carson Foster X Any Other Athlete Women's 4x200m Free Relay Day 5 July 27 2023 Australia X Brazil Canada China X France Great Britain Italy Japan United States X Any Other Nation Women's 100m Freestyle Day 6 July 28 2023 Mollie O'Callaghan X Emma McKeon X Cheng Yujie Any French Athlete Freya Anderson Anna Hopkin Siobhan Haughey Marrit Steenbergen X Sarah Sjoestroem Kate Douglass Abbey Weitzeil Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Breaststroke Day 6 July 28 2023 Ye Shiwen Thea Blomsterberg Rena Aoki Runa Imai Any Italian Athlete Kotryna Teterevkova Tes Schouten X Kaylene Corbett Tatjana Schoenmaker X Lisa Mamie Kate Douglass Lilly King X Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Backstroke Day 6 July 28 2023 Bradley Woodward Xu Jiayu Yohann Ndoye-Brouard Luke Greenbank Broadie Paul Williams Apostolos Christou Hubert Kos X Benedek Bendeguz Kovacs Ryosuke Irie Roman Mityukov Destin Lasco X Ryan Murphy X Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Breaststroke Day 6 July 28 2023 Zac Stubblety-Cook X Dong Zhihao Qin Haiyang Leon Marchand X James Wilby Anton Mckee Shoma Sato Ippei Watanabe Caspar Corbeau Arno Kamminga Erik Persson Matt Fallon X Josh Matheny Any Other Athlete Men's 4x200m Free Relay Day 6 July 28 2023 Australia X Brazil China Germany Great Britain X Hungary Italy Japan United States X Any Other Nation Women's 50m Butterfly Day 7 July 29 2023 Yu Yuting Zhang Yufei Farida Osman Melanie Henique Marie Wattel Angelina Kohler Anna Ntountounaki Rikako Ikkee Ai Soma Maaike De Waard Sara Junevik Sarah Sjoestroem Torri Huske Gretchen Walsh Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Freestyle Day 7 July 29 2023 Cameron McEvoy X Guilherme Caribe Joshua Liendo Edwards Kregor Zirk Maxime Grousset Florent Manaudou X Lewis Edward Burras Benjamin Proud X Kristian Gkolomeev Szebasztian Szabo Any Italian Athlete Thomas De Boer Jack Alexy Ryand Held Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Butterfly Day 7 July 29 2023 Simon Bucher Joshua Liendo Edwards X James Guy Jacob Thomas Taylor Peters Tomel Frankel Katsuhiro Matsumoto Naoki Mizunuma Jakub Majerski Noe Ponti Thomas Heilmann Dare Rose X Any Other Athlete X Women's 200m Backstroke Day 7 July 29 2023 Kaylee McKeown X Kylie Masse Summer McIntosh Liu Yaxin Peng Xuwei Freya Constance Colbert Katie Shanahan Any Hungarian Athlete Anastasia Gorbenko Margherita Panziera Regan Smith X Rhyan White X Any Other Athlete Women's 800m Freestyle Day 7 July 29 2023 Lani Pellister Ariarne Titmus X Summer McIntosh Li Bingjie Yang Peiqi Anastasiia Kirpichnikova Isabel Gose Simona Quadarella X Erika Fairweather Any Turkish Athlete Jillian Cox Katie Ledecky X Any Other Athlete Mixed 4x100m Free Relay Day 7 July 29 2023 Australia Brazil Canada China France Great Britain Hungary Japan Netherlands United States Any Other Nation Men's 50m Backstroke Day 8 July 30 2023 Isaac Cooper Xu Jiayu Ole Braunschweig Apostolos Christou Thomas Ceccon Andrew Jeffcoat Marcin Goraj Ksawery Masiuk Robert Glinta Hunter Armstrong Justin Ress Any Other Athlete Women's 50m Breaststroke Day 8 July 30 2023 Jhennifer Conceicao Tang Qianting Eneli Jefimova Anna Elendt Imogen Louise Clark Mona McSharry Arianna Castiglioni Benedetta Pilato Reona Aoki Ruta Meilutyte Lara Van Niekerk Lydia Jacoby Lilly King Any Other Athlete Men's 1500m Freestyle Day 8 July 30 2023 Samuel Short Guilherme Costa Fei Liwei Damian Joly Lukas Martens Florian Wellbrock X Daniel Jervis Kristof Rasovszky Daniel Wiffen X Gregorio Paltrinieri Henrik Christiansen Mykhailo Romanchuk Charlie Clark Bobby Finke X Any Other Athlete Women's 50m Freestyle Day 8 July 30 2023 Shayna Jack Emma McKeon X Cheng Yujie Zhang Yufei Any French Athlete Anna Hopkin Marrit Steenbergen Katarzyna Wasick Michelle Coleman Sarah Sjostrom X Gretchen Walsh Abbey Weitzeil X Any Other Athlete Women's 400m Ind. Medley Day 8 July 30 2023 Jenna Forrester Kaylee McKeown Summer McIntosh X Yu Yiting Freya Constance Colbert Katie Shanahan Sara Franceschi Yui Ohasi Ageha Tanigawa Katie Grimes X Alex Walsh X Any Other Athlete Men's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 8 July 30 2023 Australia Brazil Canada China X France Great Britain Hungary Italy X Japan Netherlands United States X Any Other Nation Women's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 8 July 30 2023 Australia X Canada China X France Great Britain Hungary Italy Japan Netherlands Sweden United States X Any Other Nation [/hide]

How would they be favored over the US? Everyone knows that Canada has by far the second best guard rotation, but their wings (without Wiggins) and bigs are not too impressive ...

I think you have an interesting definition of "top talent". Szilagyi won gold at the 2014 youth olympics as a 17 year old with 2:06.5, which was a junior world record if i remember correctly. You know who finished 1.5 seconds behind her in silver position? Zhang Yufei ... Mihalyvari-Farkas also won gold at the 2022 european championships in the 400 IM as an 18 year old. Kesely won 2 silver medals and a bronze at the 2018 european championships as a 16 year old. Gabor Zombori won gold at the 2019 junior world championships in the 400 free as a 16 year old with a time of 3:46.0. Not sure what Hosszu did as a junior that was (much) more impressive?

Very weird take ... 1) "He still should EASILY take gold" + "Sotero being only true CONTENDER" ...? 2) How can you call Sotero a contender but not Richter? (Personally i think that neither of them is a contender for gold)

That might be the explanation, although she already was going backwards in the 200 free way before the pandemic. Maybe she focused too much on distance and lost her speed. It looks as if she might have "rediscovered" some of her speed recently, so there might very well still be hope for her. Her progression in the 200/400/800/1500 free: 200 free: 2016: 1:57.96 2017: 1:57.10 2018: 1:57.88 2019: 1:58.14 --- 2020: 2:00.13 2021: 2:00.15 2022: 1:58.78 400 free: 2016: 4:08.10 2017: 4:05.75 2018: 4:03.57 2019: 4:01.31 --- 2020: 4:09.05 2021: 4:05.35 2022: 4:07.74 800 free: 2016: 8:34.37 2017: 8:30.62 2018: 8:22.01 2019: 8:24.25 --- 2020: 8:37.45 2021: 8:26.20 2022: 8:35.74 1500 free: 2016: 16:45.15 2017: 16:11.25 2018: 16:03.22 2019: 15:54.48 --- 2020: 16:34.43 2021: 15:59.80 2022: 16:22.89 I remember that we had a similar discussion some years ago about Mihalyvari-Farkas, where i asked whether she would keep progressing or end up like many (female) hungarian talents before her. Back then you were optimistic and didn't agree that (too) many hungarian talents fade out too quickly. Sadly it looks as if Mihalyvari-Farkas might be heading in the same direction, but maybe she will surprise us/me at worlds. Also not sure how optimistic we can/should be about the future of other talents like Veres, Fabian, Gyurinovics, Nyiradi, Molnar, Ugrai, Flück, Komoroczy, Hathazi, Abraham, Jackl and Padar? Hopefully att least Padar and Jackl will become world class. On the men's side Kovats, Magda and Betlehem look promising.

4 medals seems like an insane expectation, 1 might be possible. More interesting question would be: How many top 8 finishes do you expect (individual olympic events only)? Maybe Kapas (200 fly) Maybe Mihalyvari-Farkas (400 IM + maybe 1500 free) Maybe Szabo (50 free) Maybe Nemeth (100 free) Kos (200 back + maybe 200 IM) Maybe Kovacs (200 back) Maybe Hollo (400 IM) Maybe Marton (200 fly) I wouldn't be shocked if you wouldn't have a single top 8 finish on the women's side. I think 6 top 8 finishes would already be a good result for Hungary based on the entry lists. The US and Australia are probably the only nations that could lose athletes like Milak, Cseh and Hosszu and still have multiple medal contenders. Of course it doesn't help that many of your promising talents haven't progressed as expected (Kesely, Szilagyi, Mihalyvari-Farkas, Zombori).

Diejenigen die bei der WM die Top 4 erreichen werden deutlich mehr Zeit haben sich gezielt auf Olympia vorzubereiten. Märtens und Wellbrock sollten es schaffen, eventuell auch Gose und/oder Matzerath. Miroslaw, Klemet, Köhler und leider auch Elendt dürften keine realistische Chance haben. Was passiert eigentlich, wenn 2 Athleten im gleichen Event (Wellbrock und Märtens über 800/1500 m Freistil) die Top 4 erreichen? Wird dann kein anderer Athlet (Schwarz/Klemet) mehr die Möglichkeit haben sich über diese Strecke zu qualifizieren? Wäre extrem bitter für Klemet/Schwarz, beide haben sich in letzter Zeit stark verbessert und könnten nächstes Jahr besser als Wellbrock/Märtens über die 800/1500 m Freistil sein. Edit: Es könnte theoretisch sogar sein, dass über alle Strecken ab 400 m Freistil beide Startplätze bereits nach der WM vergeben sind. In der Realität dürfte es vor allem an Klemet (400 m Freistil) scheitern, aber trotzdem gefällt mir diese Regelung nicht. Wenn Sven Schwarz nächstes Jahr Weltrekord über 800/1500 m Freistil schwimmen würde, könnten man ihn trotzdem nicht nominieren ... Wenn auch im Freiwasser beide Startplätze nach der WM vergeben sein sollten, hätte er nicht einmal mehr diese theoretische Ausweichmöglichkeit. Ich hoffe, dass dadurch nicht seine Entwicklung "abgewürgt" wird.

That's a win for France.

I just read that VVD wants to nominate Yesilgöz. I can't believe it, this must be a very bad joke. A right-wing party nominating someone born in Turkey ... Also after recently watching an interview with her, i am absolutely convinced that she is heavily "influenced" by drug cartels. It would be by far the best for the Netherlands to not allow her in any important position, otherwise they might as well just officially hand over the country to the cartels.

Not sure how this is your conclusion. As far as i know he resigned because he couldn't agree on a more strict immigration strategy with the other parties. If anything i would assume/hope that their immigration strategy will get more strict. Also i think that Austria is also blocking Bulgaria and Romania.

Gold for Alekna is a lock, he has no competition. 3000 m SC is a different topic, she might very well only win a minor medal.

We could really use someone like her. She would be by far our best hurdler.

In a vacuum she should definitely swim the 400 free and the 400 IM. She is the clear favorite in both. I think of the remaining 3 events (200 free, 200 fly, 200 IM), the 200 IM is the one where she has the worst chance of winning a medal, but the best chance of winning gold, while the 200 fly is the one where she probably has the worst chance of winning gold. It sounds crazy to drop an event where she is the world leader (while keeping 2 events (200 free and 200 fly) where she isn't the world leader), but it probably is the smart decision. Not sure how much influence the relays should have on her decision. Don't really see the point of her swimming any relays. In the men's 4 x 100 m free relay there are at least 7 stronger nations, maybe Canada can upset Japan for the 8th spot. In the men's 4 x 100 m medley there are also at least 7 stronger nations and i think even Germany is better on paper.