OlympicsFan

Seems like one of the most implausible events to have a slovakian athlete as number 1, given that Afrifah (who ran 19.96 s last year) is also entered.

Not sure how much sense that makes, given that the entry list was released some time ago (and therefore doesn't include performances from last weekend).

Would be amazing, but I don’t see any indication that it will happen. I think they almost beat Poland during the group stage, but beating Poland and China/Brazil back-to-back would be a huge surprise for this team. I think they are well coached and have some promising players, but I don’t think that they have the quality to consistently perform at the highest level. Not sure what happened with Serbia (maybe they played with their second team?), but Germany wouldn’t have made it past the group stage if Serbia would have been remotely close to their normal level.

Don’t see how this is comparable. France is and always will be lightyears away from the US in basketball. They have been producing a lot of promising players for a long time. If they keep their production up they could overtake Canada in terms of talent. When you talk about their talent pool/junior results you also have to mention that in the past 10 years or so pretty much all their elite talents (Ntilikina, Hayes, Doumoubya) have been complete busts at NBA level. They produce tons of great athletes that lack skill and therefore only/mainly dominate at European/junior level when they face lesser athletes.

I think the US might be even more dominant in the future than they are right now. On both sides they have multiple „freak talents“. Men: Heilman, Winkler, Casas, Foster, Williamson, Diehl … Women: Douglass, Walsh, Sims, Grimes, Weinstein, Hayes, Curzan, Huske, Jacoby, Smith … Also interesting to „finally“ see an American teen phenom in the longer freestyle events on the men’s side. Recently the track record of teen phenoms in those events hasn’t been great (Grgic, Galossi). I guess as a Canadian you are probably hoping for a Mijatovic vs. Kim rivalry?

Did you only look at the times in the final (for both Australia and the US)? I think there were some faster times in prelims. Also: a) O’Callaghan might not compete at worlds. b) I think the US relays might look „a bit“ different at worlds. I expect at least Ryan Held and Torri Huske to swim in the final. c) Too bad that we didn’t get to see Heilman at 100 % in the 100 free (he swam the 200 fly earlier in the same session). d) Too bad that teen phenom Kaii Winkler (who sadly decided against representing Germany internationally) got injured shortly before trials. He might have had a shot at making the team.

Yes, I think the German federation is very lucky to have him. Without him the German federation also wouldn’t have been able to hire Lisa Thomaidis for the women’s team (it was him who made her aware of the job opening), which very likely would have meant no qualification for the OQT. In general Germany should hire more foreign coaches, especially in sports where German coaches have proven again and again that they don’t know how to coach athletes to compete at world level. For example Germany used to be elite in pole vault and shot put, but nowadays German coaches have no clue how to develop world class athletes in those disciplines. Herbert did a great job at the Euros last year, hopefully he will be able to again coach the team to the same level at Worlds this year. On paper the team (so far … ) is certainly better than it was last year (addition of Kleber/Bonga/M. Wagner + F. Wagner being one year older). Germany is missing athletic wings (like pretty much all other nations except the US/Canada) and maybe one more elite ball-handler (of course having a more physical big like Hartenstein also would have helped). I think the roster justifies considering Germany at least a top 8 team (behind the US, Canada, Australia, Spain, France, Serbia and maybe Greece). The US and Canada are obviously better on paper if they play at full strength, but in my opinion all the other teams I mentioned aren’t lightyears ahead of Germany in terms of individual quality.

Apparently Paolo Banchero has committed to play for at the World Cup this year. Unexpected decision, but unlike Reaves I actually see him as good enough to make the Olympic team for the US in the future.

Agreed. Reminds me of the situation in Turkey some years ago. At least Putin now has a better idea of who is/isn’t loyal to him.

Interesting situation from the perspective of the Ukrainian military: They can’t afford to become too careless/take too much risk (in case this is all a trap/ploy), but on the other hand they can’t afford to waste this chance (in case it isn’t a trap/ploy).

Can we be sure that Hungary is on a different level than Serbia/Germany? I don’t know who Hungary could add, but Germany was missing their two best players here (including Satou Sabally, who might be the best European player at the moment). Hungary also „only“ narrowly beat the Czech Republic here, who then lost to Germany. If Hungary won’t add any elite players, then they might be roughly on the same level as Germany/Serbia. I think Japan and Puerto Rico are also on the same level or maybe even better.

1) I don’t think that it would be smart for him to (publicly) switch sides just now. 2) Not sure if his own people seem him as a traitor. Sadly he has a lot of leverage/NATO allows him to have a lot of leverage, so he can play both sides without having to fear a lot of consequences.

It is really interesting that Wagner „suddenly“ has so many „soldiers“. As someone who doesn’t know much about the military, I wonder how it took them so long to take Bakhmut when they apparently had such a large reserve?

Is there any chance that Prick isn’t backed/payed by the US? Always seemed like the „easiest“ way to „defeat“ a country/Russia to me. During WW1 Germany „sent“ Lenin to Russia and I am not sure what happened with Gorbachev …, so there are some precedents.

Very happy that I was wrong. Maybe the Czech Republic was still not at 100 % after a gut-punching loss against Hungary. Now Germany has a very realistic/good chance to qualify. The OQT will be during the WNBA offseason, so the Sabally sisters should be able to play. Satou already said that she plans to participate. Hopefully the German federation will find a way to keep coach Thomaidis at least until after the Olympics. Without her they probably wouldn’t have been able to pull this off.

1) Why do you have Serbia as a lock? Won’t they have to beat Montenegro to qualify? 2) It looks to me as if the biggest hurdle for the European teams is finishing top 6 at the European championships. In order to qualify you only have to finish top 3 at the OQT. All European teams have a realistic chance to qualify. Japan should be the easiest opponent from pot 2 and South Korea and Brazil should be the easiest opponents from pot 3. 3) I don’t like the fact that the European championships take place during the WNBA season, it is a clear disadvantage for nations with WNBA players.

Agreed, seems absurd that they can influence which other teams will qualify. They could lose on purpose against weaker teams in order to help them qualify.

So Germany will have to beat the Czech Republic to qualify for the OQT? Doesn’t seem very likely (looking at the way both teams played against Slovakia). Maybe Germany could have had a chance against Montenegro or Serbia, but the draw wasn’t in favor of Germany this time. I still think that Germany would be at a much higher level if the Sabally sisters would play.

Had to happen at some point. Hungary producing one star after an other (Egerszegi, Cseh, Gyurta, Hosszu, Kapas, Milak) was very impressive while it lasted. Kos could win gold or maybe even miss the final. The men’s 200 back seems very open this year (Especially looking at the absence of the Russians, Greenbank and Edwards-Smith) and easily looks like the weakest event on the men’s side. There are a lot of guys who could take gold if they step up at the right time. I thought that Ndoye-Brouard would do it, but he has been underwhelming this year so far. Kos training under Bowman probably means that you have to trust him as much as anybody to step up at worlds. Going forward I am not sure where Hungary will find new medal contenders. Their biggest talents seem to be on the women’s side (Padar, Mihalyvari-Farkas, Jackl), but unfortunately for them the level on the women’s side is very strong and not many European women are currently able to fight for medals.

I am not an expert for women’s basketball, but I still have hope that Germany will seriously challenge for a spot IF both Sabally sisters play at the qualifying tournament.

Really weird comment. 1) There is no reason to consider Titmus the favorite in the 400 free. 2) You say that you trust McIntosh more than Smith but not enough to beat Titmus in the 400 free (despite swimming a world record this season and being much younger)? In 2021 and 2022 McIntosh improved by more than 2 seconds from trials to worlds/Olympics. I would almost be shocked if she wouldn’t go 3:54 at worlds.

1) Why don’t you wait with your predictions until the end of the American trials? 2) Franceschi (and to a lesser degree Colbert) winning a medal in the 400 IM would be one of the biggest surprises in the history of swimming.

Still rather disappointing that they only have one male medal contender in non-freestyle events (ZSC in the 200 breast). No medal contenders in men’s 100 breast, men’s 100/200 back, men’s 100/200 fly and men’s 200/400 IM. The US, GB, Italy, China and France might all win at least as many medals as them on the men’s side. They might walk away without a single gold medal on the men’s side (although McEvoy in the 50 free, Chalmers in the 100 free, Short in the 400/800 free and ZSC in the 200 breast could all win gold).

Probably the best roster „we“ ever had. Too bad that Hartenstein, Olinde, Jallow and Reaves aren’t part of the roster. Completely understandable that Reaves decided to compete for the US instead, but I don’t really see any chance for him to make the Olympics next year (while he easily would have made the German team for Paris, should they qualify). Personally I would cut Wohlfarth-Bottermann, Kratzer, Sengfelder, Da Silva, Hollatz and Krämer/Obst.

Extremely impressive time, I absolutely didn’t think that he would be this fast. Now we know that he can medal/win gold in at least 4 different individual events (200 IM/breast/fly + 400 IM). The question is whether he will also become a medal contender in the 100 fly/200 free. I don’t really see it (given how competitive those two events are), but after tonight I probably shouldn’t doubt him. Personally I think that he might have a better shot in the 100 breast/200 back. It will be interesting to see which events he will swim at the Olympics. 200 breast and 200 fly are in the same session, so he will probably drop one of them. The schedule probably also won’t allow him to swim the 100 breast or 200 back, so he might go for the 200 IM, the 400 IM, the 100 fly (which doesn’t collide with any of his other events) and the 200 breast or the 200 fly. It might sound crazy, but maybe he would be better off dropping the 200 fly. I think he has a better chance for gold in the 200 breast than in the 200 fly.