Ogreman

1 hour ago, dodge said:

If you lose in 3 separate qualifying competitions, you can’t blame bad draws IMO

I wish that were true with this boxing qualification system but like it isnt.

For example if you are the tenth best boxer in a given weighclass you could very easily lose to lets say the 2nd, 5th and 7th best boxers and fall short of qualifying despite being comfortably good enough to qualify. It is important to note that all these draws are unseeded and I'm assuming the world qualifying ones will be too. With unseeded draws you don't control when you box the best boxer in the draw or how many of the top 3 or 4 boxers are in your path to a qualifying position.

I've tried to explain (admittedly quite badly) the unseeded draw thing before but like again to keep it simple if the 2 finalists qualify. Then the boxer who loses the final and the boxer who lost to the eventual winner in the semis had basically the same result (I know this isn't quite true but for simplicity lets say it is). So we don't know who was better the losing finalist or the losing semi finalist because they lost to the same boxer, so in theory we can approximate that half of the time the boxing who lost to the winner in the semi final would have actually beaten the boxer who lost in the final and therefore with 2 qualifiers per weight roughly 25% of the qualifiers are 'incorrect' as in the worse boxer qualified just comparing the losing finallist to the losing semifinallist. This can be extrapolated backwards as well like the boxer who lost to the eventual champion in the quarter final or last 16 might actually be the second best boxer in the draw but because the draw was unseeded they have no control over whether they meet the best boxer so we don't know. The majority of the weightclasses on the mens side in Asia ended up like this where the likes of Chu En Lai and Chia Wei Kan qualified despite being nowhere near the level of Ruslan Abdullaev/ Bakhodur Usmonov and Asadhkuja Muydhinkujaev/Aslanbek Shymbergenov/ Nishant Dev.

This setup is also true for draws where the best four boxers qualify but the 'incorrect' percentage is much trickier to calculate. This error is why taekwondo has its convaluted way of awarding bronze medals and taekwondo starts from a point where it has a fairly accurate seeding and seeds every athlete in the draw. Seeding only somewhat corrects this error but obviously is limited by the accuracy of the seeding.

To explain it slightly differently the actual number for how often the second best boxer in a 2 to qualify draw qualifies is only slightly above 50% just based off the draw. Not even taking into account judging errors (To explain exactly what I mean by second best boxer is somewhat difficult but it is a theoretical second best boxer rather than "I think this guy was the second best boxer", just in theory there is one we don't need to actually know who it is) (This probably just confuses things further but sure). But anyway in an unseeded draw slightly under half of the time the best boxer and the second best boxer will get drawn on the same side of the draw. (I could explain why it is slightly under half and not half but it doesn't matter that much).To give you an example Jack Marley is one of the best heavyweights in the world and thoroughly deserves his spot at the Olympics but there was a slightly under 50% that he would have been drawn on the same side of the bracket as Aziz Abbes Mouhidiine and he wouldn't have qualified as a result. Same end result, same level of performance but whether or not he qualifed just came down to the draw. Again this means that in a two to qualify roughly 50% of the time one of the boxers is 'incorrect' and therefore 25% of the qualifiers are 'incorrect'.

Obviously this is a somewhat idealised and theoretical setup and it is an incomplete argument but I hope can convince you that the error produced by these draws is significant and significant to the point that just having 3 qualifying oppurtunities isn't going to correct for it. If not just trust me on this, I have thought a lot about these things.

(I've managed to confuse myself a bit here because this is roughly the same process but yet the first way I've explained would produce an error of 25% plus the error that the losing quarter finallists... was actually the one who 'should' have qualified, so an error of greater than 25% and yet the second more simplistic way gives you an error of slightly under 25%.)

(I've decided the first way probably needs some refining and the maths is more complex than I have laid it out but let me think about it)

(The conclusion is right though, roughly 25% of the qualifiers in a 2 to qualify unseeded draw system are 'incorrect', and that number would be higher for a 4 to qualify system.)

So quickly from a prediction perspective I got 12/13 which is a little dissapointing but well sure. It leaves me on 84/139 (60.4%) in total for all the continental events which is half decent I suppose.

In terms of the competition here I suppose the positive is that there were no major judging controversies but there were so few close fights that it would have been an embarrasment if there were any.

Look give Australia credit, Like by Australian standards this is a good squad and the thing is that Adrian Paoletti at 92kg the only Australian not to qualify actually isn't that far away in terms of qualifying at one of the world tournaments although I wouldn't bet on it. (It's going to be a very lonely trip for him though)

From a New Zealand perspective this was an unmitigated disaster. The IOC gave you a few free quotas in a sport you aren't particularly good at and you went nah thanks we're good. Aditionally to manage to lose 3 fights to non-Australian opposition (At least one of which could have been competing for you) is an indictment of their selection process.

Finally on the Oceanian quota thing 

23 hours ago, dodge said:

I don't really see a problem with geographical spread of quotas. So what if Australia gets 12 quotas? Not really an issue at all if the 5th best in Europe or Asia miss out. They still have 2 world events to qualify from 

It's not a geographical spread thing though Australian had 5 quotas last time Oceania had 9 boxers there was no issue with Oceania being represented at the Olympics when they competed along with Asian qualifying. Like why exactly is there a need to separate Asia and Oceania but lump North and South America together. I'm not arguing for two separate Americas qualifiers just why is that different.

Secondly yes it is an issue that Australia get 12 quotas. Australia are a roughly top 15/20 country in the world in boxing and yet they are going to have the most qualifiers for the Olympics. Also its not the 5th best in Asia and Europe, It was only top 2 in the majority of events, the draws were unseeded and add in some bad judging and it is far from a picture of the 5th best boxer in Europe/Asia missing out at this point, in a lot of cases it was much closer to 2,3,4 and 5 all missing out rather than just the 5th best.

A lot of boxers are going to miss out on qualifying despite being better than their Oceanian (Australian) equivalent and Oceania would have ended up with 6/7 or so quotas plus a universality/tri-partite quota or two anyway.

M51kg

Yusuf Chothia .

Zain Adams, New Zealand's entry appears to have withdrawn althoug I wouldn't have expected him to qualify anyway. Chothia has to go through Eriu Temakau  who is based in Australia and Charles Keama  before a final probably against Nehal Chand . Clinton Tetekana  is the other boxer in the draw. I would be somewhat surprised if any of Chothia's fights go the distance.

M57kg

Charlie Senior .

Charlie Senior should comfortably win here. His path to the final involves going through David Rounds , almost certainly Alex Mukuka  and likely Allan Aoike . Although Aoike does need to beat Boe Warawara  who did compete at the Rio Olympics.

M63.5kg

Harry Garside .

The only Olympic medallist in the draw although I would not expect him to get anywhere near repeating the feat. He should qualify though albeit the draw could have been kinder with Olympian John Ume  in the first round likely followed by Australian based Pemberton Lele  with Kalani Marra  waiting in the final assuming he beats Lautufa Lutu  and Elia Rokobuli .

M71kg

Wendell Stanley .

Finally I get to pick a non Australian. Shannan Davey  has to go through Tauwhiri Toheriri  and likely Taufu Lavemaau  before a final against Wendell Stanley who has a very straightforward path to the final. Stanley beat Davey on a split decision the previous time they met.

M80kg

Callum Peters   

Callum Peters isn't very good but its a pity that Emile Richardson  is worse. The top of this draw is actually pretty interesting with a quarter final of Richardson against Roman Viney  who met at the New Zealand national champs earlier this year where Richardson won a split decision. Jolando Taala  who is American based awaits in the semis and it is very possible that we don't see a New Zealand Australian final here despite them being on opposite sides of the draw. Peters will likely face Aminiasi Saratiba  in his semi.

M92kg

Ato Plodziki-Faoagali 

This is the most interesting weightclass here and might the only weight where I'm not entirely sure I made the right pick although one or two of the other ones will definitely prove incorrect for one reason or another. Ato Plodziki-Faoagali goes up against Peneteekosi Tatafu  and Michael Schuster  in his path to the final. The other semi will almost certainly see Adrain Paoletti  face Malcolm Matthes . Paoletti has beaten Matthes before. The loser of Plodzicki-Faoagali vs Paoletti will likely be the only boxer I didn't pick here who I might pick to qualify at one of the world qualifying tournaments although, emphasis on might.

M92+kg

Teremoana Jnr 

There was a fascinating story here as New Zealand champion Matt Mataika  elected to represent Tonga instead due to the self funding requirements of New Zealand boxing. So the real final here is actually the prospective semi between Mataika and Teremoana Jnr. Unfortunately for Tongan hopes Teremoana jnr is one of Australian's better boxers, maybe even their best male boxer here. The other side of the draw probably sees Patrick Mailata  who was born in Samoa face Elijah Mercury Leafa  who is based in New Zealand.

So my final tally is Australia-11, New Zealand-1, Samoa-1 and it is probably more likely Australia gets to 12 than falls to 10. This Australia squad is a half decent Australian squad but the fact that they will cruise to double digits with the likes of Kazakhstan on 2 qualifiers and GB on 3 after continental qualifying is ridiculous.

I should also note that the other non-Olympic weightclasses are being contested here with no Australia or New Zealand so there should be plenty of shinier medals to go around to the smaller nations plus all the bronze going around because the most entries in any of the weight classes is 8 and most have significantly fewer.

Not entirely sure if there is much point predicting these but for completeness lets do it. Very nearly missed this starting as well. Results site said this wasn't starting until Tuesday. There is one qouta up for grabs in all weightclasses. I don't understand why Oceania needed an automatic quota at all given that enough of them qualified through Asia. I believe 9 Oceanians qualified last time although in a few cases in the same weightclass so this automatic spot but only one per weightclass seems strange and unnecessary

W50kg

Monique Suraci 

Should be pretty clear cut. Will face Tasmyn Benny  in the final after Benny beats a home boxer.

W54kg

Tiana Echegaray 

Tiana Echegaray has beaten Christine Gillespie  before so should win the qouta spot. They face off in the semis before almost certainly meeting Hainite Tuitupou  in the final who is good enough to mention here given thats its not like either of the other two are any good. None of these would be anywhere near a quota globally.

W57kg

Tina Rahimi 

This one isn't a foregone conclusion but I would still back Australia here. Jennifer Peters  is her opponent and doesn't seem to have basically any international experience. Another Semi final matchup for the quota spot with Feofaaki Epenisa  the likely final opponent.

W60kg

Tyla Mcdonald 

I should pick Erin Walsh  here as she is the best New Zealander so far as in she has literally beaten the previous couple but well her international results are pretty hopeless. McDonald's aren't much better but well they are slightly.  McDonald has to go through the only women's quarter final against a home boxer before a semi final against Baby Nansen  who is a professional boxer and kickboxer in New Zealand albeit not a very good one. Walsh's semi is against Elizabeth Teapu . (Who mixed in with her very Tongan name has a random Quinn thrown in there so clearly has some sort of Irish connection. (Presumably as tangible a connection as Jaismine Camacho-Quinn who was very confused when an Irish interviewer asked her about it in Tokyo.) Erin Walsh has an actual Irish connection as she was born here.)

W66kg

Marissa Williamson 

Entry list has a bunch of entries but its a straight final on the draw sheet unfortunately. Marissa Williamson had a very impressive win beating out World silver medallist at 70kg Kaye Scott at Australian trials and should be way too good for Cara Wharerau .

W75kg

Caitlin Parker 

Probably the only true Olympic medal contender in Oceania prabably in either gender, Caitlin Parker should be much too good for her competition here. She faces Eseta Flint who is Australian but representing  having obviously failed to get the Australian selection in her semi. The other semi sees Deanne Read  face timolai lafaialii  .

So boxing national champs. Quick run through of the Olympic weights.

W50kg- Daina Moorehouse retains her title although there was a surprise in the semis with Shannon Sweeney beating Caitlin Fryers on a very close split decision- Moorehouse is almost certain to get the Irish selection for the world qualifying tournaments although while there still a couple of good boxers left globally I would expect Moorehouse to qualify at the first one.

W54kg- Jennifer Lehane overturns the result from the previous national champs and justifies her European games selection by beating Niamh Fay. Niamh Fay is talented but I reckon probably needs go up a weightclass in the future and still needs some serious cleaning up of aspects of her technique. Lehane has a good chance of qualifying but is by far the most vulnerable of the womens weights. If there a weight to hope for a good draw it is this one.

W57kg- Michaela Walsh is obviously already qualified and won a record 11th elite title here.

W60kg- Kellie Harrington is also obviously already qualified and also won a record 11th title.

W66kg- Right so Amy Broadhurst and Lisa O Rourke are both absent through injuries. Grainne Walsh retains her title with wins over Kaci Rock and Christina Desmond but I'll be honest I thought Desmond beat her although it was a very close fight.

W75kg- Aoife O'Rourke walkover I think, not much to say here.

M51kg- Sean Mari is still the clear cut number one domestically. Unfortunately internationally is unlikely to be good enough to make the Olympics.

M57kg- The deepest mens weight by a country mile. Jude Gallagher having missed the previous national champs justified is status as the Irish number one by winning here but his semi final against Dylan Eagleson was very close (I kind of thought Eagleson won to be honest). Eagleson had an impressive win against reigning champ Paul Loonam in the prelims and for me at least is still in contention. Adam Hession got a good win against reigning 60kg champion Davey Joyce but despite beating him in the past looked outclassed against Jude Gallagher. Jude Gallagher is obviously the massive favourite at this point but it wouldn't shock me at all if Dylan Eagleson gets the nod for the qualifiers. Either should qualify but it is close and there is a lot of talent left globally.

M63.5kg- Surprise win for Aaron O donoghue over international JP Hale in Dean Clancy's absence.

M71kg- Dissapointingly no Aidan Walsh so difficult to get a clear cut image from these champs. Dean Walsh did win but somewhat unconvincingly with two close fights against Jon McConnell (talented but not Olympic level good) and 67kg champion Eugene Mckeever. For me this should still be Aidan Walsh but he has only boxed three times all year. Dean Walsh is a decent boxer but he just likely isn't quite good enough to make it to the Olympics.

M80kg- What a fight! If you missed them you should defintely watch this one. (TG4 youtube). This fight was worhty of an Olympic medal fight. Kelyn Cassidy gets the win over Gabriel Dossen and likely shores up is status as Irish number one although it was close enough that the door is still ajar for Dossen. Either of them should qualify but if there is a weight where we might switch boxers between the two qualifying tournaments if we fall short at the first one it is probably this one.

M92kg- Jack Marley with a couple of comfortable wins to retain his title.

M92+kg- We probably have our super heavyweight selection. Relative newcomer to boxing Martin Mcdonagh backs up his intermediate title with a win here including a very impressive final win against former Georgian number one Ilia Mtsariashvili. Probably unlikely to qualify but he is talented enough to get a little bit excited about.

1 hour ago, mpjmcevoy said:

Quota : Women's Triathlon

 

Medal, Men's Sevens

I don't think the men's rugby sevens team is a particularly unlikely medal. We had a strange and somewhat transitional season last year but we are World cup bronze medallists and the core of that squad still remains, we have the best player in the world in Terry Kennedy and we now have better depth.

For me though 

Qualification: Adam Steele/ Eamon Montgomery- Artistic Gymnastics,

Medal: Rowing men's quad (Arguably could put them in the unlikely qualification category but still)

I have been watching the NFL since 2016. For context those are my entire years as a teenager. Today is the first time that I have witnessed the broncos beating the chiefs. This win has been a long time coming.

Olympic Qualifiers (My predictions in brackets)

 - 9 (8)

- 5 (4)

- 3 (5)

- 3 (4)

- 2 (2)

- 2 (1)

- 2 (1)

- 1 (1)

- 1 (1)

- 1 (1)

-1 (1)

-0 (1)

I'll probably do a more detailed breakdown after the finals tomorrow but Brazil go top of the global qualifiers standings after continental stage which just whatever ridiculous number Australia get to come. ( Brazil-9, China/ France-7, Turkey-6, Ireland/ USA/ Algeria-5). USA just about salvaged a solid total with that Josh Edwards win against Fernando Arzola which also condemned Cuba to what must be their worst ever panamerican games boxing performance.

Also if anyone cares I broke 60% on my qualifying predictions 20/30 (66%) and a miraculous 14/16 on the womens side of things and I kinda think I was unlucky to not get a couple more. It's bizarre how much easier predicting these becomes when there are less entries.

Wow shock of the tournament. 2021 world silver medallist Roscoe Hill  having done the hard work and beaten Alejandro Claro  and Yuberjen Martinez  loses to Yunior Alcantara  with an Olympic spot on the line. The flyweight world qualifying tournaments are going to be ridiculously stacked.

Here's my two cents. This may be the league, sporting event I follow the closest and yet I have never quite managed to figure out preseason predictions. This year is especially difficult because the middle tier in the league is huge. There were a lot of very similar teams around the middle last year and they are alll basically still there plus a couple of the high win total teams last year have regressed and all the teams from the bottom last year are trying to be better this year. For what its worth I think Denver will repeat and I'm not just saying that because I am a Nuggets fan.

Wow, Lazaro Alvarez  just got annihilated by Wyatt Sanford .

This really isn't a very strong Cuban squad and certainly nowhere near the standard they traditionally put out.

8 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

Are these rankings important?

No. Mostly useless. The reason Ivanusa Gomes Moreira is so high on them is mostly because she was one of only 2 entries at the African Championships in 2022. She lost that fight.

Boxrec's rankings are also flawed but they are more accurate than the IBAs so if thats what you were basing your picks off then I would probably use boxrecs or maybe an aggregate of the two.

4 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

I don't know much about boxing

It's boxing. It doesn't matter how much you know about it your predictions will be wrong either way. For what its worth I think most of your picks so far have been conceivable.

15 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

Ivanusa Moreira Gomes CPV (first ever olympic medal for Cape Verde - is it possible in real word???)

Uhm, No. Incredibly slim chance of even qualifying.

	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total	Olympic Qs
Brazil	3	5	2	9	8
Cuba	3	1	0	4	4
Colombia	2	2	3	7	5
USA	2	1	5	8	4
Canada	1	1	3	5	2
Puerto Rico	1	0	2	4	1
Mexico	1	0	1	2	1
Dominican Republic	0	1	1	2	1
Argentina	0	1	0	1	1
Panama	0	1	0	1	1
Venezuela	0	0	4	4	1
Ecuador	0	0	3	3	1
Barbados	0	0	1	1	0
Haiti	0	0	1	1	0

This would be a tremendous result for Brazil. It's strange to not see Cuba at the top of the medal table but honestly this about as good a result as possible for them here. Flip side of things for the US where this would be a very poor result but they are much more likely to outperform this than underperform further. They did definetely get a bit unlucky draw wise certainly compared to Brazil and Colombia. Other than that 5 medals would be a very good outcome for Canada although only an average one from an Olympic qualifying perspective and Ecuador and Venezuela would probably both be left quite disappointed if it plays out like this. (Although Venezuela have already lost a projected medal at 57kg).

Men's predictions part 2.

M51kg

Gold- Roscoe Hill , Silver- Ramon Nicanor Quiroga , Bronze- Oscar Castaneda , Jabali Breedy .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Yuberjen Martinez , Luis Delgado .

The top bracket of this draw is very let's say open. Justin Parina  fights Central American silver medallist Junior Alcantara  and the winner will face the unproven Oscar Castaneda. I'll take the unproven boxer against this calibre of opposition. The second bracket is pretty loaded though, 2021 world silver medallist Roscoe Hill meets Alejandro Claro Fiz  in the last 16. Claro Fiz doesn't have a whole lot going for him other than that he is Cuban and won their selection trials though. The winner will meet Central American champion and Rio silver medallist Yuberjen Martinez. Assuming we get Hill vs Martinez I am not sure which way this one will go although whoever wins will very likely go on to win gold here.

The third bracket is fascinatingly even, Michael Trindade  likely meets the winner of 2023 panam champ Keymberth Gonzalez  vs Jabali Breedy. Breedy is the most established but I honestly don't know. South American champion Luis Delgado got about as good a draw as he could have hoped for with a quarter final against the established Ramon Nicanor Quiroga and one of the above boxers in the semis standing between him and an Olympic spot. I'm going to pick the strandja silver medallist Quiroga though because his 2023 form is better.

M71kg

Gold- Marco Verde , Silver- Wanderson de Oliveira , Bronze- Jhonathan Arboleda , Christiann Palacio .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Omari Jones .

This draw is a bit lopsided as well. At the top Jhonathan Arboleda  should medal having to come through only Jhonny Fernandez  and Eduardo Beckford  who he beat in the semi finals of the Central American champs earlier this year. The secodn bracket here is stacked with 2022 panam champ and 2023 Central American champion Marco Verde taking on world quarter finallist Jorge Cuellar  and 2021 world silver medallist Omari Jones  taking on promisng youngster Angel Llanos . Verde beat Jones last year and we may well see them matchup again here. Christiann Palacio is very likely to make the semis here having gotten a very straightforward draw up until that point. World bronze medallist Wanderson de Oliveira's toughest fight before the final may well be his first one against 2022 panam silver medallist Jose Rodriguez .

M80kg

Gold- Arlen Lopez , Silver- Wanderley Pereira , Bronze- Keven Beasejour , Cedrick Belony-Duliepre .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Robby Gonzalez , Christian Pinales .

There could have been a really interesting question here of weighing two time Olympic champion Arlen Lopez' recent patchy form against his experience and nous for showing up when it really counts but the draw he got was very straightforward so the risk of him not qualifying is quite low. His quarter final against Central American silver medallist Jhojan Caicedo  should at least be somewhat interesting. The draw has opened up for  2023 panam champ Keven Beasejour to win a medal here with only a couple of experienced pros in Julio Alamos  and Abraham Buonnarigo  or Desmond Amsterdam  in his way. 

On the other side of the draw 2021 world champion Robby Gonzalez got about as tough a draw as posible here meeting Central American champ (including beating Arlen Lopez) Christian Pinales before a prospective quarter final against world middleweight silver medallist Wanderley Pereira in a quarter final. The final bracket of this draw has absolutely nobody. I have no idea who of Eliezer Brito , Charles Cox , Cedrick Belony-Duliepre  and Jaden Ecclestone  will medal but one of them has to. Cedrick Belony-Duliepre appears to be Canadian or at least based there so I guess I'll pick him. Very little chance any of them even last the full three rounds in the semis though. Despite having the 2021 world and Olympic champions, this really isn't a very strong field.

M92kg

Gold- Julio Cesar La Cruz ,Silver- Keno Machado , Bronze- Julio Castillo , Bryan Colwell .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Jamar Talley .

Julio Cesar La Cruz is not the dominant force he was for so long and he does have a couple of losses this year but he does start as the favourite here. He has got a tough draw meeting 2022 panam champ Jamar Talley in the last 16. The young American is talented but is unlikely to trouble La Cruz. After a quarter final against Andrews Salgado , La Cruz will then likely matchup against only man who can match his experience in Julio Castillo. Although, Castillo does have to beat 2023 panam champ Rogelio Romero  first. A potential Castillo vs La Cruz fight would be a battle where the winner would make it to their fourth Olympics. Then again La Cruz has 2 gold medals from those appearances and Castillo hasn't even won a fight. Both should ultimately make it though. Brazil got some good draws especially in the heavier weights and this one is no exception with only a quarter final against either Central American silver medallist Marlon Hurtado  or bronze medallist from the same event Daniel Guzman both of which Keno Machado has beaten before realistically standing in his way. Canada didn't get any great draws from an Olympic perspective but do have the opportunity to pick up a couple of cheap medals with a likely quarter final between Bryan Colwell and Emmanuel Pompey  deciding the last medal here.

I'm going to have to split the men up between the weights that are being fought today and the ones that don't start yet because otherwise I won't be finished in time.

Part 2 and projected medal table on next page.

M57KG

Gold- Luiz Oliveira  , Silver- Yilmar Gonzalez , Bronze- Jahmal Harvey , Yoel Finol  .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Saidel Horta .

This is one of the more interesting weightclasses. 2021 world champion Jahmal Harvey keeps his spot in the US team despite some mixed form recently and losing to Julius Ballo earlier this year. His path to the semis likely goes through Keevin Allicock  who made it to Tokyo with a tri-partite quota. Luiz Oliveira likely awaits in the semi finals in what could be one of the fights of the tournament. Oliveira does have to come through likely Lucas Fernandez Garcia  first who had a pretty impressive silver medal at panam championships earlier this year. Oliveira and Harvey have matched up 4 times in recent years and both have won twice although Oliveira as won the last 2.

World silver medallist Saidel Horta while he did avoid Oliveira and Harvey didn't exactly get an easy draw. His first fight is against Miguel Vega  before a likely matchup with Yilmar Gonzalez in the quarter finals who beat him on his way to winning the Central American championships earlier this year. Not picking Horta may come back to haunt me but lets back the recent form. The final bracket sees Yoel Finol have to come through against Jose de lo Santos  and Jean Caicedo . Finol has both beaten and lost to Gonzalez so this sem-final could go either way.

M63.5kg

Gold- Lazaro Alvarez , Silver- Alexy de la Cruz , Bronze- Yuri Dos Reis , Jose Viafara .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Emilio Garcia , Jesus Cova .

So with Olympic champion Andy Cruz having turned pro, the door is open in this division in a way it isn't been for a few year, Three time Olympic medallist Lazaro Alvarez can be pretty pleased with his draw here coming up against Canada's best male Olympic hopeful Wyatt Sanford  before a quarter final against Luciano Amayo  or Leodan Pezo . The other medal on this side of the draw should be Yuri dos Reis but he does have to come through a couple of fights against boxers I believe are based in the US in Tyshawn Jones  and probably Samuel Contreras  although it could be Alston Ryan .

Emilio Garcia got a difficult draw, first meeting 2023 panam champ Jesus Cova which if he can win he would then face 2022 60kg panam champ and current Central American champion Alexy de la Cruz. At the bottom of the draw South American champion Jose Viafara has a comfortable path to the semifinals where it might depend on who he comes up against. He has beaten Emilio Garcia in the past albeit in a close fight but has also lost to Alexy de la Cruz.

M92+kg

Gold- Abner Texeira , Silver- Fernando Arzola , Bronze- Christian Salcedo , Joshua Edwards .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Nigel Paul .

The top of this bracket should be decided in the last 16 fight between Christian Salcedo and Nigel Paul. Salcedo has won this matchup twice in the past. Abner Texeira should comfortably make the final with fights against Javier Cruz  and the winner of the above fight. Fernando Arzola is the world silver medallist but is far from a gaurantee to qualify here. He should cruise to the semis though with only 2023 panam champ Jerome Feujio  offering some sort of obstacle. Joshua Edwards will fight the winner the winner of South American silver medallist Gerlon Congo  and 2022 panam championships silver medallist Miguel Veliz .

Right prediction time, lets try and break 60% this time. I doubt it but this one should be the most straightforward so far.

Housekeeping so draws once again are unseeded although on initial viewing most of these turned out relatively even. 2 Olympic qualifiers per weightclass except W57kg and W60kg where there are 4.

W50kg

Gold- Ingrit Victoria , Silver- Jennifer Lozano , Bronze- Caroline de Almeida , Gracemarie Quiles Marti .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- (Might be a bit harsh on Gomez and Florencia Lopez to not put them here.)

Ingrit Valencia Victoria has made the podium of the last two world championships and the vastly experienced Colombian will be looking to make it to her third straight Olympics after winning bronze in Rio and losing in the quarters in Tokyo. She starts out as the comfortable favourite here. Her path to the final sees her face the winner of 2023 panamerican champ (not a strong field) Ingrid Gomez  and 2022 48kg world bronze medallist Aldana Florencia Lopez  before a likely semi final against 2022 52kg world bronze medallist Caroline de Almeida  who herself doesn't have an easy path against the experienced Kathreen Sterling  and probably world youth bronze medallist Novoanny Nunez . Their is a pretty cheap medal up for grabs here likely between Gracemarie Quiles Marti and McKenzie Wright . I don't rate Jennifer Lozano and I would have loved to pick against her here but the draw has just opened up for her and assuming she can come through relative unknown Susan Aguas Chala  in her first fight she should relatively comfortably make the final.

W54kg

Gold- Yeni Arias , Silver- Scarlett Delgado , Bronze- Johana Gomez , Estefany Almanzar  .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Yoseline Perez , .

The US had a variety of mediocre boxers to pick from here and well they seem to opted for potential and picked 57kg world youth champion Yoseline Perez. They will get to make this selection all over again though because she has drawn Yeni Arias in one of just 3 last 16 fights. The Tokyo Olympian and current world silver medallist is the favourite to win here although the draw could have been a little kinder. Johana Gomez likely awaits in the semis assuming she beats Sofia Robles . The last 16 fight between Estefany Almanzar and 2022 South American champion Tatiana de Jesus Chagas  will likely decide a medal and a realistic shot at Olympic qualification. Scarlett Delgado got about as good a draw as she could have hoped for having had prior wins against likely quarter final opponent Nicole Mattey  and Estefany Almanzar. She is unlikely to trouble Yeni Arias in the final though.

W57kg (top 4 to qualify)

Gold- Ashleyann Lozada , Silver- Jucielen Romeu , Bronze- Valeria Arboleda , Omailyn Alcala .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Alyssa Mendoza 

The top bracket here makes you seriously question why there are four qualifying places available as whoever qualifies here will very likely the weakest boxer in this weightclass at the Olympics. Home boxer Tamara Maturana  faces the winner of Miguelina Hernandez  and Valeria Arboleda. The second bracket of this draw is much tougher though with Ashleyann Lozada who has won a number of various American titles but has never really replicated that success globally and Alyssa Mendoza likely to meet in a quarter final although they both have somewhat challenging oppening fights against Minerva Montiel  and Marie Al Ahmadieh  beforehand. I'm backing Lozada to win this fight because Mendoza's form internationally this year was a bit hit or miss but she is still young and this was her first year boxing regularly outside of the US. 

On the other side of this draw we have a rematch of the semi final of this years panam championships between Omailyn Alcala and Leilany Reyes . Legnis Cala Masso  likely awaits in the quarter final stage. This is the first female Cuban as they begin their quest to replicate their men's dominance on the women's side of things. Don't expect that to happen anytime soon. Jucielen Romeu  is a Tokyo Olympian and reigning south american champion and should get the remaining qualifying spot here. She does have a somewhat interesting prospective quarter final agaisnt Daisy Bamberger  who is American but is here representing Peru. A prospective final between Romeu and Lozada would certainly be interesting as they have fought eachother twice and each have one win. Neither of them are exactly medal contenders for Paris though.

W60kg (top 4 to qualify)

Gold- Beatriz Ferreira , Silver- Angie Valdes , Bronze- Jajaira Gonzalez , Maria Palacios .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Camila Pineiro  (this is a complete guess but someone else will qualify here and I don't think it will be Falcon) 

(First of all does anyone know why the US haven't selected 2022 world champion Rashida Ellis here. I'm assuming it must be injury related but I can't find anything on it) (Also Chile have 1 boxer that had a legitimate chance of qualifying in Valentina Bustamante and she isn't here either.)

Even without Rashida Ellis this is one of the strongest womens weightclasses here. The top of the draw should see world silver medallist Angie Valdes cruise to the final. Her preliminary fights are against Tianna Guy  and Krisandy Rios  who with a different draw could have podiumed here. (I dont know she could be a legitamately good boxer but over the last 4 years she has 2 losses against Beatriz Ferreira, 2 against Angie Valdes  and 3 against Rashida Ellis with only 2 or 3 wins total in there to break them up.)

The second bracket here is quite weak with Tokyo Olympian and 2023 panam champ (against nobody relevant) Maria Palacios facing the winner of Carribean silver medallist Jessica Munoz  and Victoria Saputo . Assuming Rashida Ellis' absence is injury related it will very likely cost her a spot at the Olympics and may well cost the USA a chance at a medal. Jajaira Gonzalez is a decent boxer and did beat Angie Valdes last year. The only significant obstacle standing in her way is Camila Pineiro  who is a South American silver medallist. Beatriz Ferreira should win this tournament with minimal trouble with the absence of  Rashida Ellis. Her opening fight is agaisnt Tokyo Olympian Esmeralda Falcon .

W66kg

Gold- Morelle McCane , Silver- Barbara Dos Santos , Bronze- Charlie Cavanagh , Stephanie Pineiro .

Other Olympic calibre boxers-Lucia Noelia Perez , Maria Moronta 

The top half of this draw should be a battle between 2022 world silver medallist Charlie Cavanagh and Morelle McCane for a final spot and the Olympic quota. Charlie Cavanagh does have to come through a tricky quarter final against the inconsistent Lucia Noelia Perez first though. McCane beat Cavanagh on a split decision at the GeeBee tournament earlier this year. Stephanie Pineiro should medal although she does have to come through 2022 world youth medallist Yuliannys Alvarez  and Camila Bravo . The bottom of the draw sees Tokyo Olympian Maria Moronta almost cerrtainly face South American champion Barbara dos Santos who beat her last year in a quarter final setting up an interesting semi final with Stephanie Pineiro. There are 6 boxers with a realistic shot at the final here and as a result I doubt the actual results will look remotely like what I have predicted.

W75kg

Gold- Tammara Thibeault , Silver- Atheyna Bylon , Bronze- Naomi Graham , Viviane Peireira .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Citlalli Ortiz 

This was always going to be somewhat luck of the draw for Naomi Graham and Atheyna Bylon and unfortunately for Graham she has ended up on the same side of the draw as Tammara Thibeault while Bylon gets the easier side of the draw. Graham has a relatively tough quarter final against Citlalli Ortiz as well. Thibeault herself should be completely untroubled in her first two fights before the semis. Graham and Thibeault have fought many many times, as far as I can tell Graham has never won. Atheyna Bylon and Viviane Peireira should both comfortably win their first two fights before facing eachother in the semis. Bylon won when these two matched up last year.

30 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

what is the mood in IRL and NZL???

Confident based off recent form and the relative quality of both teams but fully aware that historically this is where things fall apart and our margin for error is razor thin given that it is New Zealand.

Basically rational side of the brain is having a fight with every other part of the body to try and get it to actually believe we will win this.

1 hour ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Great result for McClenaghan and it will give him a huge confidence boost ahead of next year's Olympics, but I do think that going into Paris, he will have to up his degree of difficulty towards 6.6-6.7.

 

He has stuck with his 6.4 DD routine through Tokyo, Liverpool WC and Antwerp largely because he knows that he can nail the execution score but in doing so, he is leaving the door open to his competitors. 

He performed a 6.6 difficulty routine at the Paris world cup a month ago. Pretty sure he only didn't break it out here because he didn't need to push for a 15.400/ 15.500. It is mostly the same routine just with one different element near the start as I understand it. Now at the same time he did only score 15.100 for that routine in Paris but just to point out that he does have 6.6 D score in him.

6 hours ago, phelps said:

 Khyzhniak and  Mouhiidine (and maybe even  JC La Cruz and  Andy Cruz) have just collapsed because they couldn't stop loughing 

Look Khyzhniak is great but he also would have fallen short of qualifying at European games if Kelyn Cassidy was just able to see out a fight. 

Mouhiidine has a case but l think Khalokov is better than him. Julio Cesar La Cruz is getting old, Still great but not p4p best in the world great and Andy Cruz is no longer an amateur boxer.

Khalokov is great like, why would the best featherweight in the world not at least be in contention to be top of a p4p ranking. If you disagree that he should be at the top thats fine but like he is undneniably there or there abouts.

So I hit 18/34 (52.9%) qualifiers which ye know isn't accurate but is pretty much bang on as accurate as I said I woul be. Hit 13/20 women and only 5/14 men but that trend has kinda been true of my previous predicitions as well and it is just much easier to predict semifinalists rather than finalists (or winners in Africa's case). After pan ams I will rank every boxer that has competed (I don't think I will bother to wait for oceanian games as they are unlikely to produce any qualifiers at the world qualfying tournaments.)

For completeness I got 31/52 (59.6%) of the podiums right.

If I had to guess right now I would say the world qualifiers will likely be around 40% European, 37.5% Asian 17.5% American and 5% African. Why am I trying to estimate this, this will obviously be wrong and these will vary wildly between men and women. Skewing towards Asia for the men and towards Europe (and the Americas) for the women. What's interesting though is especially for the men I had thought becuase of there being less continental qualifying spots available for Asia that the first qualifying tournament would qualify a disproportionate number of Asian boxers and then Europe's depth would prevail at the second tournament but obviously with the first one being in Italy and the second one being in Thailand that might correct for that and even shift things the other way. 

Anyway enough rambling this tournament. So first of all the judging and refereeing was atrocious. I would lean towards incompetence rather than anything else but after a relatively promising start at Europeans this and African qualifying have been a bit of a mess judging wise. I don't have the time to but I would be interested to see the ratio of split to unaminous decisions at this tournament because surely it must be skewed more so than normal towards split decisions. (Side note, I'm trying hard not to start a corruption conversation here but while yes some of the decisions China got here were outright ridiculous, Judges favouring home boxers in "close" fights is well established and even if was extreme here I'm not sure it was all that different to what India got at women's worlds or what Bulgaria get at Strandja.)

I will briefly go through weight by weight but I think Japan's men are a good example of the judging being incompetent rather than anything else. Japan had three men make the podium (1 gold, 1 silver, 1  bronze) and all of them are quite similar in that they jump around very stylishly, are very confident, celebrate wildly and occasionally leap in and throw a rally so end up throwing a decent volume of punches. The issue with them (especially Okazawa) is that none of their punches actually land. Basically they are exactly the type of boxers that fool a bad judge (and much to my annoyance commentators) into thinking they are having success when they just aren't.  

Women's 50kg- I don't want to say I called it because I literally didn't but I did warn you to not be surprised if Nikhat lost and lo and behold Chuthamat Raksat beat her. She is still a medal contender here for the Olympics but she is just a contender and certainly not the favourite or anything. Wu Yu is a decent champion but wouldn't exactly strike fear into me if I was from the rest of the world.

Women's 54kg- I'm not sure Yuan Chang deserved to win any of her four fights here (When I say I'm not sure I mean she didn't but I didn't see them all so I can't say for sure) but the look on her face when she wasn't gifted the final against Chol mi Pang made me chuckle. Hsiao Wen Huang, Jutamas Jitpong and Zhaina Shekerbekova all not qualifying here is a bit ominous given the quality also left in Europe. There are going to be some names who have a genuine case as a contender to medal here that ultimately won't qualify. (This is true in most of the men's weights but likely only this one on the women's side of things. Then again pound for pound the best boxers at this weight wouldn't compete with most of the other ones.)

Women's 57kg- This Lin Yu ting Karina Ibragimova matchup is kind of fascinating. It is two one to Lin now. Could easily end up being a medal fight at the Olympics. Well done to Parveen, I shouldn't have doubted her. I did not see Mijgona Samadova coming at all. Didn't actually beat anyone especially impressive here but given that she had barely won a fight internationally (albeit she kept getting tough draws) in recent years that is still a significant achievement. 

Women's 60kg- Won Ungyong ay, Who knew? If it wasn't for that one rogue North Korean I probably would have nailed this podium. (Wenlu Yang might have beaten Oh Yeonji but sure we will never know)

Women's 66kg- I simultaneously nailed this podium prediction wise and feel like I didn't deserve to because that Nien Chin Chen Liu Yang fight should have probably gone Chen's way although it certainly wasn't the most egregious decision.

Women's 75kg- I mean I got this right too but there were only nine entries so it shouldn't have been that hard. 

Men's 51kg- I mean my predictions ended up ok. I obviously didn't see So Chonryong coming but given the quality of his opponents maybe I should have just picked him. I don't like Tsuboi style but sure look he wins fights. I managed to not see any of Thitisan Panmot's fights so I'm not sure how good he is yet form an Olympic prospects perspective. There are only 16 qualifying spots available in total here so some big names will miss out.

Men's 57kg- First of all Abdumalik Khalokov has to be one of the best if not the best (Jalolov is already a pro so) pound for pound amateur boxers in the world right now. I still don't understand why Carlo Paalam is at 57kg but sure he might have qualified it he hadn't run into Khalokov. There were a couple of controversial decisions here so as they happened. Makhmud Sabyrkhan did not deserve to lose to O Taebom but he also should have won comfortably and not left it up to the judges to make a decision (It will be fascinating to see of he keeps his place ahead of Termizhanov and Assylkulov now). The way the Sachin Ping Lyu fight ended was unfortunate and while if three rounds had played out I would have expected Sachin to come through and win it there was nothing wrong with the decision here. And finally again Rujakron Juntrong absolutely did not deserve to lose to Shudai Harada but again he left it up to the judges when with both boxers at their best Juntrong should win comfortably. Such is the way with this qualifying system but that might have been his best chance.

Men's 63.5kg- Chinzorig Baatarsukh produced one of the best performances of anyone here going through a gauntlet to win and while Sofiane Oumiha is the favourite for gold in Paris, Baatarsukh looked good enough to beat him here. Chu En Lai rode the easy side of the draw surviving a scare when the judges just about managed to avoid robbing him against Wang Xiangyang. Again easy draw for Ali Qasim Al Sarray but you don't see Iraq winning boxing medals everyday. My predictions proved to be atrocious.

Men's 71kg- I was so close with the Nurmuhammedov pick so close. Chia Wei Kan and Chinese Taipei as a whole and a surprisingly good tournament here. I did not think their men would be as competitive as they were. I mentioned the Okazawa thing earlier. I just don't get it. If you were to slow mo his fights and carefully count how many punches actually land would you get past ten in any of his fights? I didn't see the the Okazawa Eashash fight, and look Nishant Dev hardly landed much himself against him either. Nishant Dev is a decent boxer but as a counterpuncher he seems to really struggle when he comes up against other counterpunchers. Shymbergenov should have won here but at the same time he was pretty unimpressive outside of a brilliant third round round to over turn a lost fight against Asindkhuja Muydinkhajaev. Kazakhstan had a bad tournament here but they did at least deserve to qualify here (They probably got robbed at 57kg and 80kg as well but they were in prelims so they might not have qualified anyway.) 71kg is a weird weightclass. I was unconvinced by the European qualifiers and nobody here exactly screamed Olympic medallist.

Men's 80kg- Tanglatihan Touhetaerbieke is a very good boxer but rode his luck big time to win here. All four of his fights could have gone the other way and I thought Turabek Khabibulllaev definitely deserved to beat him although like it was at least close. Turabek Khabibullaev is a major talent even if he fell short here. Eumir Marcial looked good here and a second Olympic medal could be on the cards in Paris. If the Oralbay Tuohetaerbieke fight and just been split the other way these predictions would have looked great.

Men's 92kg- I'm still confused as to how we ended with Davlat Boltaev beating Han Xuezhen in the final here. I should have picked Boltaev but Han Xuezhen being good enough to allow him to ride hometown decisions to the final is bonkers. I would bet a lot of money he loses his first fight in Paris. I would complain but this tournament has me gone from thinking Jack Marley was a decent but outside chance at an Olympic medal to a situation where he is probably a favourite to medal. Look there is a lot of talent in the Americas here though, and this is definitely one of the weakest weights in Asia. 

Men's 92+kg- No shocks and look I got this one right too. Only men's weight where I got both qualifiers right. Based on this it seems clear that if they only capped entries at 13 I wouldn't get a single predicition wrong .