Ogreman

avlar · February 14

Cairo World cup starts tomorrow. Cottbus is next week.

Cairo Entry list: https://www.gymnastics.sport/asset.php?id=fidb_15319

Somewhat unsurprisingly a massive entry list nearly 300 which is nearly double this world cups typical number of entries. No Russia as expected but Belarus as neutrals and North Korea interestingly are here.

Top 2 eligible gymnasts per apparatus to qualify based on the best 3 of 4 world cup results. Sharing the point allocation system because I found it difficult to find in the past.

Rank	Apparatus World Cup points
1	30
2	25
3	20
4	18
5	16
6	14
7	12
8	10
9	8
10	7
11	6
12	5
13	4
14	3
15	2
16	1

Anyone with a more extensive gymnastics knowledge want to try and preview/ predict these qualifiers?

February 14

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow:

Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals

Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*".

Women's Tournament

Knockout Stage
February 10th - February 16th, 2024

4 Nations, the 2 winning Nations will qualify for the Final. The 2 losing nations wil play the Third-Place Match.

Semifinals

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 14th 2023, h. 16:00	United States		1	Spain
February 14th 2023, h. 17:30	Hungary	1		Greece

February 11

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow:

Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals

Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*".

Men's Tournament

Knockout Stage
February 11th - February 17th, 2024

8 Nations, the 4 winning Nations will qualify for the Semifinals.

Quarterfinals

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 13th 2023, h. 16:00	Spain	5*		Montenegro
February 13th 2023, h. 17:30	Greece	1		Italy
February 13th 2023, h. 19:00	Serbia	1		Croatia
February 13th 2023, h. 20:30	Hungary	1		France

February 11

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow:

Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals

Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*".

Women's Tournament

Knockout Stage
February 10th - February 16th, 2024

8 Nations, the 4 winning Nations will qualify for the Semifinals.

Quarterfinals

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 12th 2023, h. 16:00	United States	6		Australia
February 12th 2023, h. 17:30	Spain	8		Canada
February 12th 2023, h. 19:00	Hungary		1	Netherlands
February 12th 2023, h. 20:30	Italy	2		Greece

February 11

"Captain"-points - Explained: Each user can select up to 5 "captains" for this contest. Each "captain" will double its' points for his, her's or the team's event.

Each user will have to mark their "captains" for each event with an "*".

Event & Date	Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze
Women's 400m Freestyle Day 1 February 11 2024	Kiah Melverton			x
	Valentine Dumont
	Any Brazilian Athlete
	Ella Jensen
	Li Bingjie		x
	Yang Peiqi
	Isabel Gose
	Ajna Kesely
	Simona Quadarella
	Erika Fairweather	x
	Eve Thomas
	Addison Sauickie
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 February 11 2024	Australia	x
	Brazil
	Canada
	China		x
	Hong Kong
	Italy
	Netherlands			x
	South Korea
	Sweden
	United States
	Any Other Nation
Men's 400m Freestyle Day 1 February 11 2024	Elijah Winnington
	Felix Auboeck
	Guilherme Costa
	Petar Mitsin
	Any Chinese Athlete
	Lukas Martens			x
	Sven Schwarz
	Kristof Rasovszky
	Daniel Wiffen		x
	Marco De Tullio
	Matteo Ciampi
	Danas Rapsys
	Kim Woomin
	Antonio Djakovic
	Ahmed Hafnaoui	x
	David Johnston
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 February 11 2024	Australia
	Canada
	China
	Great Britain	x
	Hungary
	Italy		x
	South Korea
	Sweden
	United States			x
	Any Other Nation
Women's 100m Butterfly Day 2 February 12 2024	Alexandra Perkins
	Brianna Throssell
	Lana Pudar		x
	Katerine Savard
	Gong Zhenqi
	Barbora Seemanova
	Angelina Kohler			x
	Anna Ntountounaki
	Chiharu Iitsuka
	Erin Gallagher
	Louise Hansson
	Claire Curzan	x
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 200m Ind. Medley Day 2 February 12 2024	Ashley McMillan
	Sydney Pickrem		x
	Yu Yiting
	Charlotte Bonnet
	Cyrielle Duhamel
	Abbie Wood
	Delma Sebestyen
	Anastasia Gorbenko			x
	Sara Franceschi
	Marrit Steenbergen
	Kim Seoyeong
	Kate Douglass	x*
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 100m Breaststroke Day 2 February 12 2024	Sam Williamson
	Bernhard Reitshammer
	Ilya Shymanovich
	Melwin Imoudu
	Lucas Matzerath
	Adam Peaty
	James Wilby
	Nicolo Martinenghi		x
	Ludovico Blu Art Viberti
	Denis Petrashov
	Casper Corbeau
	Arno Kamminga			x
	Berkay Ogretir
	Nic Fink	x
	Jake Foster
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 50m Butterfly Day 2 February 12 2024	Isaac Cooper
	Cameron McEvoy			x
	Simon Bucher
	Abdelrahman Sameh
	Benjamin Proud
	Stergios Marios Bilas
	Szebasztian Szabo
	Nyls Korstanje
	Diogo Matos Ribeiro	x
	Dylan Carter
	Mario Molla Yanes
	Michael Andrew		x
	Shaine Casas
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 1500m Freestyle Day 3 February 13 2024	Agostina Hein
	Madeleine Gough
	Beatriz Dizotti
	Kristel Kobrich
	Li Bingjie		x
	Yang Peiqi
	Anastasiia Kirpichnikova
	Isabel Gose
	Simona Quadarella	x
	Evie Thomas
	Kayla Han
	Kate Hurst			x
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 100m Backstroke Day 3 February 13 2024	Iona Anderson		x
	Jaclyn Barclay			x
	Anastasiya Shkurdai
	Ingrid Wilm
	Chen Xin
	Lauren Cox
	Kathleen Dawson
	Maike De Waard
	Kira Toussaint
	Adela Piskorska
	Carmen Weiler Sastre
	Claire Curzan	x
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 100m Breaststroke Day 3 February 13 2024	Macarena Ceballos
	Abbey Harkin
	Any Chinese Athlete
	Siobhan Haughey		x
	Mona McSharry			x
	Arianna Castiglioni
	Benedetta Pilato
	Ruta Meilutyte	x
	Kotryna Teterevkova
	Tes Schouten
	Dominika Sztandera
	Laura Van Niekerk
	Sophie Hansson
	En Yi Lettia Sim
	Any American Athlete
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 200m Freestyle Day 3 February 13 2024	Kai James Taylor
	Elijah Winnington
	Felix Auboeck
	Lucas Henveaux
	Fernando Scheffer
	Pan Zhanle			x
	Lukas Martens
	Rafael Miroslaw
	Duncan Scott	x
	Denis Loktev
	Marco De Tullio
	Katsuhiro Matsumoto
	Danas Rapsys
	Hwang Sunwoo		x
	Luke Hobson
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 100m Backstroke Day 3 February 13 2024	Bradley Woodward
	Miroslav Knedla			x
	Ole Braunschweig
	Apostolos Christou
	Adam Jaszo
	Benedek Bendeguz Kovacs
	Andrew Jeffcoat
	Ksawery Masiuk
	Pieter Coetze		x
	Lee Juho
	Hugo Gonzalez
	Roman Mityukov
	Jack Aikens
	Hunter Armstrong	x*
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 200m Freestyle Day 4 February 14 2024	Shayna Jack
	Brianna Throssell
	Valentine Dumont
	Ai Yanhan
	Li Bingjie
	Barbora Seemanova
	Abbie Wood
	Siobhan Haughey	x*
	Nikolett Padar
	Marrit Steenbergen		x
	Erika Fairweather			x
	Addison Sauickie
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 800m Freestyle Day 4 February 14 2024	Elijah Winnington
	Guilherme Costa
	Marwan Elkamash
	Damian Joly
	Sven Schwarz			x
	Florian Wellbrock
	David Betlehem
	Kristof Rasovszky
	Daniel Wiffen	x
	Luca De Tullio
	Gregorio Paltrinieri
	Kim Woomin
	Ahmed Hafnaoui		x
	Mykhailo Romanchuk
	Any American Athlete
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 50m Breaststroke Day 4 February 14 2024	Mikel Schreuders
	Sam Williamson
	Bernhard Reitshammer
	Ilya Shymanovich
	Melwin Imoudu
	Lucas Matzerath
	Adam Peaty		x
	Simone Cerasuolo
	Nicolo Martinenghi
	Any Dutch Athlete
	Peter Stevens
	Emre Sakci
	Michael Andrew			x
	Nic Fink	x
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 200m Butterfly Day 4 February 14 2024	Martin Espernberger
	Max Litchfield
	Ricardo Marton
	Federico Burdisso
	Alberto Razzetti			x
	Tomoru Honda	x
	Nao Horomura
	Krzysztof Chmielewski		x
	Michal Chmielewski
	Arbidel Gonzalez
	Chad Le Clos
	Matthew Sates
	Zach Harting
	Any Other Athlete
Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay Day 4 February 14 2024	Australia
	Canada
	China		x
	France
	Great Britain
	Hungary
	Ireland
	Italy
	Japan
	Netherlands			x
	South Africa
	Spain
	Sweden
	United States	x
	Any Other Nation
Women's 50m Backstroke Day 5 February 15 2024	Iona Anderson			x
	Jaclyn Barclay
	Anastasiya Shkurdai
	Roos Vanotterdijk
	Ingrid Wilm		x
	Chen Jie
	Lauren Cox	x
	Kathleen Dawson
	Constanza Cocconcelli
	Maaike De Waard
	Kira Toussaint
	Adela Piskorska
	Claire Curzan
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 200m Butterfly Day 5 February 15 2024	Lana Pudar	x
	Ma Yonghui
	Helena Rosendahl Bach			x
	Laura Stephens		x
	Georgia Damasioti
	Boglarka Kapas
	Delma Sebestyen
	Maria Jose Mata Cocco
	Anja Crevar
	Park Sujin
	Rachel Klinker
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 4x200m Free Relay Day 5 February 15 2024	Australia	x
	Brazil
	Canada			x
	China		x
	France
	Great Britain
	Hungary
	Italy
	Netherlands
	South Korea
	United States
	Any Other Nation
Men's 100m Freestyle Day 5 February 15 2024	Jack Cartwright
	Kai James Taylor
	Pan Zhanle	x
	Wang Haoyu
	Matthew Richards		x
	Nandor Nemeth
	Szebaszstian Szabo
	Manuel Frigo
	Alessandro Miressi
	Cameron Gray
	Diogo Matos Ribeiro
	Hwang Sunwoo			x
	Matt King
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 200m Ind. Medley Day 5 February 15 2024	Finlay Knox
	Duncan Scott
	Alberto Razzetti	x
	Riki Abe
	Daiya Seto
	Lewis Clareburt
	Matthew Sates
	Carles Coll Marti
	Hugo Gonzalez
	Jeremy Desplanches
	Shaine Casas			x
	Carson Foster		x
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 100m Freestyle Day 6 February 16 2024	Shayna Jack		x
	Stephanie Balduccini
	Ai Yanhan
	Charlotte Bonnet
	Anna Hopkin
	Siobhan Haughey	x
	Nagisa Ikemoto
	Marrit Steenbergen
	Kornelia Fiedkiewicz
	Michelle Coleman
	Sarah Sjoestroem
	Kate Douglass			x
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 200m Breaststroke Day 6 February 16 2024	Abbey Harkin
	Gabrielle Silva
	Sydney Pickrem
	Kristyna Horska
	Mona McSharry
	Francesca Fangio
	Kotryna Teterevkova			x
	Tes Schouten		x
	En Yi Lettia Sim
	Sophie Hansson
	Lisa Mamie
	Kate Douglass	x
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 200m Backstroke Day 6 February 16 2024	Bradley Woodward
	Luke Greenbank	x
	Broadie Paul Williams
	Apostolos Christou
	Apostolos Siskos
	Benedek Bendeguz Kovacs
	Lorenzo Mora
	Andrew Jeffcoat
	Ksawery Masiuk
	Pieter Coetze
	Lee Juho
	Hugo Gonzalez
	Roman Mityukov		x
	Oleksandr Zheltiakov			x
	Jack Aikens
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 200m Breaststroke Day 6 February 16 2024	James Dergousoff
	Dong Zhihao	x
	Matti Mattsson
	Ikuru Hiroshima
	Denis Petrashov
	Andrius Sidlauskas
	Miguel De Lara Ojeda
	Caspar Corbeau		x
	Arno Kamminga			x
	Carles Coll Marti
	Erik Persson
	Nick Fink
	Jake Foster
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 4x200m Free Relay Day 6 February 16 2024	Australia
	Brazil
	Canada
	China
	Great Britain	x
	Italy
	Lithuania
	Poland
	South Korea		x
	United States			x
	Any Other Nation
Women's 800m Freestyle Day 7 February 17 2024	Agosta Hein
	Madeleine Gough
	Kiah Melverton
	Yang Peiqi
	Anastasiia Kirpichnikova
	Isabel Gose		x
	Ajna Kesely
	Simona Quadarella	x
	Erika Fairweather			x
	Evie Thomas
	Kayla Han
	Kate Hurst
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 200m Backstroke Day 7 February 17 2024	Jaclyn Barclay		x
	Anastasiya Shkurdai
	Ingrid Wilm
	Freya Colbert			x
	Dara Molnar
	Eszter Szabo-Feltothy
	Laura Bernat
	Adela Piskorska
	Camila Rebelo
	Africa Zamorano Sanz
	Lilla Bognar
	Claire Curzan	x
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 50m Butterfly Day 7 February 17 2024	Any Australian Athlete
	Roos Vanotterdijk
	Katerine Savard
	Yu Yuting
	Farida Osman
	Melanie Henrique
	Angelina Kohler
	Anna Ntountounaki
	Maaike De Waard
	Neza Klancar
	Erin Gallagher			x
	Louise Hansson
	Sarah Sjoestroem	x
	Claire Curzan		x
	Kate Douglass
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 50m Freestyle Day 7 February 17 2024	Isaac Cooper
	Cameron McEvoy	x
	Pan Zhanle
	Benjamin Proud			x
	Stergios Marios Bilas
	Kristian Gkolomeev
	Ian Yentou Ho
	Szebasztian Szabo
	Leonardo Deplano
	Any Dutch Athlete
	Ji Yuchan
	Vladyslav Bukhov
	Michael Andrew		x
	Matt King
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 100m Butterfly Day 7 February 17 2024	Simon Bucher
	Josef Miladinov
	Wang Xizhe
	Tomoru Honda
	Katsuhiro Matsumoto
	Nyls Korstanje		x
	Jakub Majerski
	Diogo Matos Ribeiro			x
	Matthew Sates
	Chad Le Clos
	Shaine Casas	x
	Zach Harting
	Any Other Athlete
Mixed 4x100m Free Relay Day 7 February 17 2024	Australia	x
	Brazil
	Canada
	China
	Hungary
	Italy			x
	Japan
	Netherlands
	South Korea
	Sweden
	United States		x
	Any Other Nation
Women's 50m Freestyle Day 8 February 18 2024	Shayna Jack		x
	Florine Gaspard
	Julie Kepp Jensen
	Melanie Henrique
	Anna Hopkin
	Kim Busch
	Marrit Steenbergen
	Katarzyna Wasick
	Neza Klancar
	Michelle Coleman
	Sarah Sjostrom	x
	Claire Curzan			x
	Kate Douglass
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 50m Breaststroke Day 8 February 18 2024	Tang Qianting			x
	Yang Chang
	Veera Kivirinta
	Mona McSharry
	Anita Bottazzo
	Benedetta Pilato		x
	Ruta Meilutyte	x*
	Kotryna Teterevkova
	Dominika Sztandera
	Lara Van Niekerk
	Sophie Hansson
	Piper Enge
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 400m Ind. Medley Day 8 February 18 2024	Kiah Melverton
	Tessa Cieplucha
	Ella Jansen
	Cyrielle Duhamel
	Freya Constance Colbert	x
	Boglarka Kapas
	Anastasia Gorbenko
	Sara Franceschi		x
	Ichika Kajimoto			x
	Anja Crevar
	Lilla Bognar
	Kayla Han
	Any Other Athlete
Women's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 8 February 18 2024	Australia		x
	Canada
	China
	Hong Kong
	Hungary
	Italy
	Netherlands			x
	South Africa
	Spain
	Sweden	x
	United States
	Any Other Nation
Men's 1500m Freestyle Day 8 February 18 2024	Fei Liwei
	Marwan Elkamash
	David Aubry
	Damian Joly
	Sven Schwarz
	Florian Wellbrock
	David Betlehem
	Kristof Rasovszky
	Daniel Wiffen	x*
	Luca De Tullio
	Gregorio Paltrinieri			x
	Henrik Christiansen
	Ahmed Hafnaoui		x
	Mykhailo Romanchuk
	Charlie Clark
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 50m Backstroke Day 8 February 18 2024	Isaac Cooper		x
	Javier Acevedo
	Miroslav Knedla
	Ole Braunschweig
	Apostolos Christou
	Michele Lamberti
	Andrew Jeffcoat
	Ksawery Masiuk
	Andrei-Mircea Anghel
	Pieter Coetze			x
	Oleksandr Zheltiakov
	Michael Andrew
	Hunter Armstrong	x
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 400m Ind. Medley Day 8 February 18 2024	Lorne Wigginton
	Zhang Zhanshuo
	Max Litchfield
	Apostolos Papastamos
	Balazs Hollo
	Alberto Razzetti
	Tomoru Honda			x
	Daiya Seto		x
	Lewis Clareburt
	Matthew Sates
	Carson Foster	x
	David Johnston
	Any Other Athlete
Men's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 8 February 18 2024	Australia			x
	Canada
	China
	Greece
	Hungary
	Italy		x
	Japan
	Netherlands
	South Africa
	Spain
	United States	x
	Any Other Nation

February 9

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow:

Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals

Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*".

Men's Tournament

Knockout Stage
February 11th - February 17th, 2024

8 Nations, the 4 winning Nations will qualify for the Quarterfinals.

Playoffs

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 11th 2023, h. 12:00	Croatia	5		China
February 11th 2023, h. 16:00	Australia		5*	France
February 11th 2023, h. 17:30	Montenegro	1		Romania
February 11th 2023, h. 19:00	United States		3	Italy

February 9

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow:

Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals

Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*".

Women's Tournament

Knockout Stage
February 10th - February 16th, 2024

8 Nations, the 4 winning Nations will qualify for the Quarterfinals.

Playoffs

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 10th 2023, h. 12:00	Netherlands	20		China
February 10th 2023, h. 16:00	Kazakhstan		17	Greece
February 10th 2023, h. 17:30	Australia	13		Great Britain
February 10th 2023, h. 19:00	New Zealand		9	Canada

February 7

"Captain"-points - Explained: Each user can select up to 5 "captains" for this contest. Each "captain" will double its' points for his, her's or the team's event.

Each user will have to mark their "captains" for each event with an "*".

Event & Date	Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze
Mixed Relay Day 1 February 7th 2024	Austria
	Czechia
	Finland
	France		x
	Germany
	Italy
	Norway	x*
	Slovenia
	Sweden			x
	Switzerland
	Ukraine
	United States
	Any Other Nation
Women's Sprint Day 2 February 9th 2024	Justine Braisaz-Bouchet	x
	Lou Jeanmonnot
	Julia Simon
	Franziska Preuss
	Any Other German Athlete
	Lisa Vittozzi			x
	Karoline Knotten
	Ingrid Tandrevold		x
	Any Other Norwegian Athlete
	Anamarija Lampic
	Elvira Oeberg
	Any Other Swedish Athlete
	Lena Haecki Gross
	Any Other Athlete
Men's Sprint Day 3 Febrary 10th 2024	Quentin Fillon Maillet
	Emilien Jacquelin
	Any Other French Athlete
	Benedikt Doll			x
	Johannes Kuehn
	Philipp Nawrath
	Tomasso Giacomel
	Johannes Thingnes Boe	x
	Tarjei Boe		x
	Johannes Dale-Skjevdal
	Sturla Holm Laegreid
	Any Other Norwegian Athlete
	Martin Ponsilouma
	Sebastian Samuelsson
	Any Other Athlete
Women's Pursuit Day 4 Febrary 11th 2024	Justine Braisaz-Bouchet		x
	Lou Jeanmonnot
	Julia Simon	x
	Franziska Preuss			x
	Vanessa Voigt
	Lisa Vittozzi
	Juni Arnekleiv
	Karoline Knotten
	Ingrid Tandrevold
	Elvira Oeberg
	Hanna Oeberg
	Any Other Swedish Athlete
	Lena Haecki Gross
	Any Other Athlete
Men's Pursuit Day 4 Febrary 11th 2024	Quentin Fillon Maillet
	Emilien Jacquelin
	Any Other French Athlete
	Philipp Nawrath
	Any Other German Athlete
	Tommaso Giacomel
	Johannes Thingnes Boe	x*
	Tarjei Boe			x
	Johannes Dale-Skjevdal		x
	Sturla Holm Laegreid
	Any Other Norwegian Athlete
	Martin Ponsilouma
	Sebastian Samuelsson
	Any Other Athlete
Women's Individual Day 5 Febrary 13th 2024	Lisa Theresa Hauser
	Justine Braisaz-Bouchet
	Lou Jeanmonnot
	Julia Simon
	Janina Hettich-Walz
	Franziska Preuss
	Vanessa Voigt
	Lisa Vittozzi		x
	Dorothea Wierer
	Juni Arnekleiv
	Karoline Knotten
	Ingrid Tandrevold
	Elvira Oeberg
	Hanna Oeber			x
	Lena Haecki Gross	x
	Any Other Athlete
Men's Individual Day 6 Febrary 14th 2024	Quentin Fillon Maillet
	Emilien Jacquelin
	Any Other French Athlete
	Johannes Kuehn
	Roman Rees
	Justus Strelow
	Tommaso Giacomel
	Johannes Thingnes Boe	x*
	Tarjei Boe
	Johannes Dale-Skjevdal
	Any Other Norwegian Athlete		x
	Martin Ponsilouma
	Sebastian Samuelsson			x
	Sebastian Stalder
	Any Other Athlete
Single Mixed Relay Day 7 February 15th 2024	Austria
	Czechia
	Finland
	France			x
	Germany
	Italy
	Norway	x
	Slovenia
	Sweden		x
	Switzerland
	Ukraine
	United States
	Any Other Nation
Women's Relay Day 8 February 17th 2024	Austria
	Czechia
	Finland
	France		x
	Germany
	Italy			x
	Norway
	Poland
	Slovenia
	Sweden	x*
	Switzerland
	Ukraine
	Any Other Nation
Men's Relay Day 8 February 17th 2024	Austria
	Czechia
	Finland
	France		x
	Germany
	Italy
	Norway	x*
	Slovenia
	Sweden			x
	Switzerland
	Ukraine
	Any Other Nation
Women's Mass Start Day 9 February 18th 2024	Justine Braisaz-Bouchet
	Lou Jeanmonnot
	Julia Simon	x
	Franziska Preuss
	Vanessa Voigt
	Lisa Vittozzi
	Juni Arnekleiv
	Karoline Knotten
	Ingrid Tandrevold			x
	Elvira Oeberg
	Hanna Oeberg		x
	Lena Haecki Gross
	Any Other Athlete
Men's Mass Start Day 9 February 18th 2024	Quentin Fillon Maillet
	Emilien Jacquelin
	Any Other French Athlete
	Johannes Kuehn
	Justus Strelow
	Any Other German Athlete
	Any Italian Athlete
	Johannes Thingnes Boe	x
	Tarjei Boe		x
	Johannes Dale-Skjevdal
	Any Other Norwegian Athlete			x
	Martin Ponsilouma
	Sebastian Samuelsson
	Sebastian Stalder
	Any Other Athlete

mattiekav119 · February 4

Just posting a slight update on my qualification projections from a few weeks ago before diving qualification starts as the hockey teams were kinding throwing the numbers of the probabilistic approach off. 139 would have been the 22nd largest team in Tokyo and with basically no Russia it might not be that unrealistic that our team size for Paris could be in the top 20.

My projection	Probabalistic E(q)	Floor	Ceiling
139	138.7	127.75	147.15

February 3

*"Double-the-points" distributed as follow:

Each user will have 5 during the Group stage.
Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*".

Women's Tournament

Group Stage
February 4th - February 8th, 2024

16 Nations, 4 Groups, the 1st-placed Nation from each Group will qualify for the Quarterfinals. The 2nd-and 3rd-placed Nations from each Group will qualify for the Playoffs.

Group A

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 4th 2023, h. 09:00	Kazakhstan		5	Brazil
February 4th 2023, h. 10:30	United States		2	Netherlands
February 6th 2023, h. 19:00	Netherlands	25		Kazakhstan
February 6th 2023, h. 20:30	Brazil		18	United States
February 8th 2023, h. 16:00	Brazil		18	Netherlands
February 8th 2023, h. 17:30	United States	25		Kazakhstan

Group B

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 4th 2023, h. 12:00	China		10	Spain
February 4th 2023, h. 13:30	Greece	7		France
February 6th 2023, h. 09:00	France	3		China
February 6th 2023, h. 10:30	Spain	1		Greece
February 8th 2023, h. 19:00	Spain	9		France
February 8th 2023, h. 20:30	Greece	8		China

Group C

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 4th 2023, h. 16:00	Australia	30		Singapore
February 4th 2023, h. 17:30	Hungary	16		New Zealand
February 6th 2023, h. 12:00	New Zealand		17	Australia
February 6th 2023, h. 13:30	Singapore		28	Hungary
February 8th 2023, h. 09:00	Singapore		20	New Zealand
February 8th 2023, h. 10:30	Hungary	1		Australia

Group D

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 4th 2023, h. 19:00	Great Britain		10	Italy
February 4th 2023, h. 20:30	South Africa		13	Canada
February 6th 2023, h. 16:00	Canada	2		Great Britain
February 6th 2023, h. 17:30	Italy	23		South Africa
February 8th 2023, h. 12:00	Italy		4	Canada
February 8th 2023, h. 13:30	South Africa		8	Great Britain

Top 3

Place	1st	2nd	3rd
Nation	USA	Netherlands	Spain

Men's Tournament

Group Stage

February 5th - February 9th, 2024

16 Nations, 4 Groups, the 1st-placed Nation from each Group will qualify for the Quarterfinals. The 2nd-and 3rd-placed Nations from each Group will qualify for the Playoffs.

Group A

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 5th 2023, h. 09:00	Croatia	4*		Australia
February 5th 2023, h. 10:30	South Africa		27	Spain
February 7th 2023, h. 19:00	Spain	3*		Croatia
February 7th 2023, h. 20:30	Australia	18		South Africa
February 9th 2023, h. 16:00	Australia		8	Spain
February 9th 2023, h. 17:30	South Africa		24	Croatia

Group B

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 5th 2023, h. 12:00	China		11	Greece
February 5th 2023, h. 13:30	Brazil		8	France
February 7th 2023, h. 09:00	France	8		China
February 7th 2023, h. 10:30	Greece	11		Brazil
February 9th 2023, h. 19:00	Greece	3*		France
February 9th 2023, h. 20:30	Brazil		1	China

Group C

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 5th 2023, h. 16:00	Japan		7	Serbia
February 5th 2023, h. 17:30	Montenegro	1		United States
February 7th 2023, h. 12:00	United States	2		Japan
February 7th 2023, h. 13:30	Serbia	3		Montenegro
February 9th 2023, h. 09:00	Serbia	5*		United States
February 9th 2023, h. 10:30	Montenegro	6		Japan

Group D

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 5th 2023, h. 19:00	Italy	18		Kazakhstan
February 5th 2023, h. 20:30	Romania		7	Hungary
February 7th 2023, h. 16:00	Hungary	1		Italy
February 7th 2023, h. 17:30	Kazakhstan		7	Romania
February 9th 2023, h. 12:00	Kazakhstan		15	Hungary
February 9th 2023, h. 13:30	Romania		7*	Italy

Top 3

Place	1st	2nd	3rd
Nation	Spain	Hungary	Italy

Prakash_k · January 21

14 hours ago, Prakash_k said:

Anyone have idea about boxing seeding at olympic?

I spent a while going down a rabbit hole of trying to figure this out a couple of months ago and I think my conclusion was that they just haven't announced it either way yet although that may have since changed.

They haven't seeded any of the qualification tournaments so maybe they just don't although that would gaurantee some very strange medals. My guess is they probably do include seeds and just end up seeding the European/ Asian and American champions along with either the African or Oceanian champion but I don't really have anything to base that on.

mattiekav119 · January 13

https://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/boxing/walsh-duo-earn-surprise-spots-on-ireland-boxing-team-for-olympic-qualifiers/a1253315537.html

Well there is good news and bad news. Rest of the squad is as expected.

Grainne Walsh has to win an Olympic medal now. You can't get picked ahead of two world champions including the one who beat both of the world finalists last year and not medal.

I have to say I'm dissapointed. I feel great about Broadhurst's or O'Rourke's medal hopes and not very good about Walsh's. I do hope I'm proven wrong.

I hate that to an extent I will root against her but I was semi relieved when Dean Walsh lost during European games and I suspect I will find myself in the same frame of mind with Grainne Walsh.

An interesting note with this squad is apart from the Tokyo Olympians. We haven't picked anyone who won a European or World championships medal in 2022. (Sweeney, Fryers, Broadhurst, O'Rourke, Desmond, Dossen, Eagleson).

January 13

1 hour ago, dodge said:

Our most likely chance in gymnastics is unfortunately injury to those individuals who qualified at the world champs. They’re personal, not national, quotas and would be reallocated

Bro, Get your hopes up for the world cup series qualifiers. There are a couple like pommel and rings where the standard required to qualify will be ridiculously high but some of them are definitely attainable. Like I wouldn't pick us to get any of them but we will be in the shake up. Also on review I think Russia won't be allowed at Europeans so that all-around quota is not quite as but still mostly out of the question. There are five or so gymnasts between Halle Hilton and a reallocated quota. It's not impossible if some of them qualify through other means but Hilton getting an actually quota herself is much more likely than picking up a reallocated one.

We seem to be looking at different badminton rankings but I'll believe you and yeah I probably should have put Rachael Darragh down as a safe qualifier.

mattiekav119 · January 12

Right,I feel like it is an apt time (well it was last week but this took a while) to revisit this thread as at this point we should be able to relatively accurately project the remaining Irish qualifiers. This was a much trickier exercise than I thought it would be. I guess a lot of the could go either way qualifiers are still in play plus some of the more ambiguous qualification systems haven’t come to their conclusion yet.

Safe qualifiers (S) (>90%), Likely qualifiers (L) (>65%), 50-50 (F) (35-65%) , Still in with a chance (C) (5-35%), Very unlikely but still possible (V) (<5%). I also just went through and put who I actually think will qualify. To simplify things an athlete’s potential relay quota is only included in the relay’s qualification likelihood and not the individuals, Also not counting injury risk in my probabilities unless a given athlete is particularly injury prone or currently injured. I’ll try to keep my thoughts fairly brief. (Update I failed)

Athletics- Men’s Sprint/ hurdles- Israel Olatunde (F) (q), Mark Smyth (L) (q), Marcus Lawler (V), Robert McDonnell (F) (L if he was ever not injured), Chris O’Donnell (L) (q), Thomas Barr (S) (q), Fintan Dewhirst (V), Jack Raftery (V), Cillín Greene (V), Calum Baird (V).

Israel Olatunde probably needs to pb to be in with a chance of qualifying in addition to running five races faster than he did last year but in reality only needs to replicate his indoor form from last year outdoors. It will be interesting to see how much he focuses on indoor world championships or if he puts all his eggs in the Olympics basket. Mark Smyth just needs to continue to improve from last year, Somewhat similar to Israel in terms of his indoor form last year never translating to an equivalent time outdoors. McDonnell should qualify if he just has an injury free season but that would his first. O’Donnell (45.00) and Barr (48.70) both should get close to running qualifying times but should qualify regardless.

Men’s middle distance- Mark English (S) (q), John Fitzsimons (L) (q), Cian McPhillips (F), Conor Murphy (C), Mark Milner (V) (Only 3 can qualify). Luke McCann (L) (q), Nick Griggs (F) (q), Cathal Doyle (C- Only 2 plus Andrew Coscoran).

English and Fitzsimons have been recent major champs regulars so that shouldn’t change. McPhillips should be in with a great chance of qualifying barring injury trouble. Luke McCann and Nick Griggs both could run the qualifying time (3:33.5) but are likely rankings qualifiers regardless although given recent 1500m times there may not be many rankings quotas on offer. Cathal Doyle is actually in a qualifying position currently ahead of McCann but is probably unlikely to stay there.

Men’s Long distance- Darragh McElhenney (F) (q), Cormac Dalton (V), Barry Keane (V), Efrem Gidey (C), Peter Lynch (V), Stephen Scullion (L) (q), Ryan Creech (C), Ryan Forsyth (V), Hiko Haso (F), Darragh Kenny (L) (q), Brendan Boyce (V), Oisin Lane (V).

Darragh McElhenney is another one of the many young improving athletes who may or may not qualify on this list. I reckon he will make it though. Efrem Gidey also fits into that category but would need a significant bounce back season to make it. Stephen Scullion seems like our most likely marathon qualifier after running 2:11:51 at the Dublin marathon. That is 3:40 off the qualifying time (2:08:10) but after taking significant time off after Tokyo I think he is on pace to either run it or get close enough to get a rankings spot. Hiko Haso was on pace to run the qualifying time in Valencia for most of the race before fading towards the end. 65 of the marathon qualifiers will be decided in February (right?) but only 3 I think of them will be rankings quota so shouldn’t effect things too much. Darragh Kenny is very likely to qualify in the 20k race walk. Brendan Boyce I think is focused on the mixed relay.

Men’s field events- Eric Favors (S) (q), Reece Ademola (L) (q), Sean Mockler (V).

Shot put isn’t very deep so Eric Favors should qualify comfortably. Reece Ademola is one of a few athletes who ended last year very strongly and so starts in the year in a decent ranking position albeit currently outside a quota spot. He is definitely good enough to qualify. (It’s kind of sad that potentially qualifying 2 men’s field event athletes would be a massive improvement for us.)

Women’s sprint- Molly Scott (C), Gina Akpe Moses (C), Lauren Roy (V), Lucy May Sleeman (V), Sharlene Mawdsley (S)(q), Sophie Becker (F), Roisin Harrison (C), Phil Healy (F)(q), Cliodhna Manning (V), Kelly McGrory (V).

Molly Scott is back after becoming a barrister but would need a career season to qualify. I’ll be honest, I hadn’t realised Gina Akpe-Moses was racing at all last year but she was running 11.50 by the end of the year so maybe still has a shot at an Olympic appearance. Sharlene Mawdsley is in a very strong position to qualify. I’d be somewhat surprised if none of Sophie Becker, Roisin Harrison or Phil Healy qualified in the 400. It will be interesting to see if Phil Healy can resurrect a career that has fallen apart a bit over the last couple of years when in theory she should be hitting her peak. Also I do wonder if the 200 is her best event and her recent focus on the 400 for relays purposes has hurt her individual career.

Women’s middle distance- Louise Shanahan (S)(q), Jenna Bromell (V), Geogie Hartigan (V).

Shanahan is very likely to qualify, is a pb away from running the entry standard. 3 already qualified in the 1500 so this is a short list as a result.

Women’s Long distance- Roisin Flanagan (C), Eilish Flanagan (C) Ide Nic Domhnaill (V), Michelle Finn (F), Ava O’Connor (V), Kate Veale (V), Anne Marie McGlynn (V), Aoife Cooke (V).

Eilish Flanagan obviously is already an Olympian but it is tough to see her qualifying this time around. Roisin Flanagan would need a significant pb to make it in the 5000 or the 10000. Michele Finn making her third Olympics would be some achievement and is currently in a rankings spot. Narrowly missed out for world championships last year so it is possible that happens again. It currently looks like Fionnuala McCormack will likely be alone in the marathon field which would be the first time since 2008 that we didn’t qualify multiple athletes for that race.

Women’s field events- Sommer Lecky (V), Ava Rochford (V), Ellie McCartney (V), Elizabeth Ndudi (F), Ruby Millet (V), Nicola Tuthill (C), Kate O’Connor (S)(q).

Sommer Lecky and Ava Rochford would both need to start jumping 10cm higher at least to put themselves in contention to qualify. Ellie McCartney is also 20cm away from contention in the Pole Vault. Obviously none of them are likely to make that big a leap (pun intended) but they might be more realistic than some of the athletes I have included here. If Elisabeth Ndudi can replicate and improve slightly on her 6.56 pb from the end of last year, she could easily qualify. She is still very young though. Tuthill is currently in a quota spot but it will be tough to keep it. Development ark for hammer throwers tends to be a slower so having recently turned 20, Paris is probably too soon. Kate O’Connor ended up being very close to not qualifying for worlds last year but hopefully one good heptathlon off the back of worlds should see her comfortably qualify this time around. She might already be safe but one good performance would probably secure it.

Relays- Mix 4*400 (S)(q), Men’s 4*400 (F) (O’Donnell, Baird, McDonnell/Greene, Raftery), Women’s 4*400 (L)(q) (Becker, Mawdsley, Healy/Harrison, Adeleke), Men’s 4*100 (V) (Smyth?, Akinola, Swinner, Olatunde) Women’s 4*100 (C) (Sleeman, Lavin, Scott, Akpe-Moses). Mixed race walk (Boyce + Veale) (L) (2q).

Right so these will be decided almost in their entirety at world relays in May. Deciding these all at the same time makes qualifying the mixed and the Men’s/ Women’s 4*400 a bit tricky. Then again every country is in the same boat and honestly our 400m depth is really good so this may end up helping us. There are 2 world rankings quotas per relay which the W4*400 and the Mixed 4*400 could get but obviously depends on what other countries opt to do. Obviously we may decide to just focus on the mixed 4*400 or maybe even trust the M4*400 to qualify enough that we ignore the mixed event (There is a medal available for some country behind Netherlands and the USA now that Fiordaliza Cofil was found to have high testosterone and knocked out the Dominican challenge in the process. It could maybe be us). Qualifying the mixed and Women’s 4*400 would raise a number of selection headaches particularly regarding Adeleke but sure we can cross that bridge if we come to it. I would assume we would put out 4*100 squads and there are maybe the makings of decent times in both squads. The women somehow managed to qualify for 2022 worlds so maybe they can repeat the feat. (The big brain move might be to use Adeleke to help qualify the 4*100 with no intention of using her at the Olympics in the event). The world racing walking team championships will decide 13 of the 16 mixed relay (4*10km with 2 athletes) quotas with 3 additional rankings spots. We are currently 7^th in the rankings and it is only 1 qualifier per country so unless I am missing something, I think we will qualify here.

Badminton- Nhat Nguyen (S) (q), Rachael Darragh (L) (q), Men’s Double (2C).

Nguyen could probably miss the rest of the qualifying window and still qualify. Rachael Darragh I believe has a 10 spot buffer in the rankings at the moment but does still have work to do to secure her spot. The men’s double is currently ranked 58^th in the world with Brazil and Mexico sitting between us and the current 16^th qualifier the USA in 51^st. It’s roughly a 2000 point gap which I think is closable but I’m not sure. If they make it, it will be by the skin of their teeth.

Boxing- Women’s- Daina Moorehouse- W50kg (S)(q), Jennifer Lehane (Niamh Fay)- W54kg (L) (q), Amy Broadhurst (Lisa O’Rourke, Grainne Walsh)- W66kg (S) (q).

I have Daina Moorehouse fourth of the remaining unqualified boxers and kind of think she is more likely to beat those ahead of her than lose to someone behind her so I feel very comfortable about her chances. There are about 10 or so bantamweight boxers all of a relatively equal standard left in the draw so Lehane’s task is a bit tougher but still fairly doable. A lot of these weight have one or two nightmare draws left in the qualifying tournaments. At 66kg we are the nightmare draw whether it is Amy Broadhurst or Lisa O’Rourke. I have no idea which we will select but I don’t think it should be Grainne Walsh. Her Olympic medal chances just aren’t good enough compared to the other two.

Men’s- Sean Mari- M51kg (V) , Jude Gallagher (Dylan Eagleson)- M57kg (F) (q), Dean Walsh (Aidan Walsh, Eugene McKeever)- M71kg (F), Kelyn Cassidy (Gabriel Dossen?)- M80kg (L) (q), Martin McDonagh- M92+kg (V)

Sean Mari would need the performance of his life and a favourable draw just to be in with a chance of qualifying. I have Jude Gallagher projected as the last qualifier at featherweight so it is possible the draw decides whether or not he makes it. It will be interesting if he doesn’t make it at the first one if we would then pick Eagleson. I have no clue what 71kg ends up looking like. Aidan Walsh did a podcast in December with Cavan gaa which seemed to suggest (along with his absence at national champs) that he had stepped away from the high performance setup for mental health reasons but apparently he is back in the squad (if he ever actually left that is). Dean Walsh I have talked about before but he falls into the could qualify for the Olympics but is realistically unlikely to category. Eugene McKeever’s inclusion in the training squad is interesting as first of all I thought Jon McConnell was ahead of him in the pecking order and secondly probably not a great sign for a. the coaching staff’s confidence in Dean Walsh or b. Aidan Walsh definitely being available. Kelyn Cassidy is in theory our most secure male remaining qualifier but has been inconsistent at times in the past and I do have some concern about his ability to go through the rounds as he would likely need four wins to make the Olympics especially given his propensity to get on referees nerves for whatever reason. Gabriel Dossen was surprisingly not included in the training squad. The reason for that is unclear but I would be shocked if it was performance related. (Turning pro?, Injured?, Caught selling weed again?). I think Martin McDonagh has impressed enough to get a shot so I would expect to see him get selected for the qualifiers. Expecting him to qualify is probably optimistic although superheavy is a pretty shallow division.

Strandja is the first week of February before the first qualifier in the first week of March. It will be interesting whether we send the entire squad to Strandja or rest the ones who will picked for the qualifiers. An extension of this is whether we select (perhaps have already selected) the squad before Strandja or in particular at W66kg and M71kg do we wait for Strandja’s results and pick the team afterwards.

Canoe sprint- C2 (Jennifer Egan, Éabha Ni Drisceoil) (V).

Europeans are in May, It would be a massive shock if they managed to qualify.

Cycling BMX- Ryan Henderson (V).

Cycling Mountain Biking- Chris Dawson (V).

If only downhill mountain biking was the Olympic discipline.

Cycling Track - Women’s team pursuit (4S) (Gillespie, Griffin, Sharpe, Murphy, (Creighton)).

Should have done this before Europeans but position looks even safer now. I think should get a madison spot if we did inexplicably fall out of a quota position.

Diving- Clare Cryan (L) (q), Jake Passmore (F) (q), Ciara McGing (C).

Don’t have much analysis to add here. Clare Cryan just needs to replicate last year’s worlds performance this time and she will be safely qualified, Jake Passmore and Ciara McGing both need significant improvements but especially in Passmore’s case that are well within them. It would be disappointing if we don’t get two qualifiers here albeit it is still possible we get none.

Equestrian- Dressage- Anna Merveldt (S).

See Oldira's post below

Field Hockey- Men (16C), Women (16C).

The next big qualifier on the list. Both teams in similar situations where they are underdogs but absolutely capable of qualifying. If either team makes it we will set a significant new record qualified athletes total otherwise it will be close in terms of beating the total we got in Tokyo. It would be a bit of a momentum killer for Irish hockey if both teams fall short but that is the most likely scenario.

Golf- Rory McIlroy (S), Shane Lowry (S), Leona Maguire (S), Stephanie Meadow (S).

Seamus Power’s form fading as last year went on has really any intrigue out of this from a qualifying perspective. The one thing I would mention is Olivia Mehaffey who is our third ranked woman I think wouldn’t currently be in a qualifying position in the event of an injury, just something to keep an eye on just in case.

Gymnastics- Women’s- Emma Slevin (C), Halle Hilton (C).

So in terms of what is still available there are 2 apparatus (can compete all-around at Olympics) per apparatus at the world cup series (best 3 results of 4, top 16 score points although the big points are for podiums) and then one all-around quota at Europeans that is, well gone if the Russians decide they want it. So I spent a while trying to figure this out (Helpful table below). I think Halle Hilton’s most likely route is floor which at least last year seemed to be the easiest event to get a quota from. Beam and vault are also possible but less likely. Vault is likely Emma Slevin’s most likely path to a quota spot but if last years results are replicated it would be very difficult to secure a quota. (Last thing is I’m not entirely sure whether one country can qualify multiple athletes through the world cups provided they remain under 3 total qualifiers or if there is only one quota per gender per country available. If it is the latter which I think it is, it might help our chances ever so slightly).

Men’s- Eamon Montgomery (C), Adam Steele (V), Dominick Cunningham (C).

So Eamon Montgomery would have qualified on floor if it was based off last years world cup series rankings but obviously the degree of difficulty will increase this time around with the Olympics on the line. Realistically he needs to make 3 finals and then score high 13s/14s to put himself in with a chance. At his peak he has shown himself to be capable of that but hasn’t done it consistently. Rhys McClenaghan’s floor plans also come into this. He won trials last November and so has earned the right to compete on floor at the world cups but we are restricted to two entries per event so it would mean neither Dominick Cunnigham or Adam Steele could try to qualify on floor. Vault is likely their best chance and Dom’s scores don’t leave him too far away. If he consistently scores in the 14s which he is capable of he won’t be too far away. Adam competed on pommel at last year’s world cups but there is zero chance he can get a quota there. His best chance is probably to hope the Russians don’t show up at Europeans and then try to nail all-around there but that is very unlikely to yield a quota spot. There were 5/6 athletes who would have qualified ahead of him if it was last year’s Europeans.

	Score required to make final
	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor	Men's Floor	Men's Vault
Cottbus	12.55	12.7	12.833	13	13.933	14.166
Doha	12.599	12.4	12.9	12.233	13.466	14.099
Baku	12.599	12.933	12.733	12.4	13.633	14.183
Cairo	12.583	12.5	12.233	12.2	13.4	13.933
	Would be qualifiers last year
	3rd (41 points)	8th (25 points)	6th (30 points)	12th (21.5 points)	5th (32 points)	4th (53 points)

Judo- Rachael Hawkes (C)?, Joshua Green (V).

Rachael Hawkes has slipped significantly in the rankings down to 54^th in the W70kg. She would need to move up about 20 places to put herself in with a chance but she was in that range midway through last year. Josh Green is ranked similarly in 53^rd in the M73kg but would need to get all the way into the top 25 to have a shot. I don’t think we are getting a judo quota.

Modern Pentathlon- Sive Brassil (V)

Would need a massive improvement in 2024 to put herself in contention

Rowing- Women- Women’s four (S) (4q), Women’s single (V)

The four should be a selection battle between last years four (Natalie Long, Sanita Puspure, Imogen Magner, Eimear Lambe) plus the injured Emily Hegarty and always the odd woman out Tara Hanlon (Plus possibly Aisling Hayes/ Holly Davis). I reckon it will end up being (Magner, Puspure, Lambe, Hegarty) although it is possible that Lambe forces her way into the pair. Anyway this boat should qualify. Denmark will also be strong but Canada will likely the boat we need to beat and it is their secondary boat behind their eight. The scenarios where we try to qualify a single are Siobhan McCrohan can’t force her way into the lightweight double and gets a shot here instead, Sanita decides to end her career where she spent most of it or junior world silver medallist Holly Davis is way ahead of schedule. Unfortunately I can’t see a scenario where we try to qualify a quad. An eight might just be doable if the pair doubled up but I don’t think we would consider it.

Men- Men’s quad (F) (4q), Men’s four (C), Men’s single (V).

A few months removed from a disappointing world champs for the quad (Konan Pazzaia, Ronan Byrne, Andrew Sheahan, Brian Colsh) and the four (Adam Murphy, Fionnan McQuillan Tolan, Jack Dorney, John Kearney), I feel better about both boats chances. I’m not sure we got the combination right for worlds in the quad but I do think there is a fast quad in this squad that is not only good enough to qualify but can be competitive at the Olympics. I do wonder if Brian Colsh will force his way into the double over Daire Lynch although the Philip Doyle, Colsh double was possible in 2022 and they went with Colsh in the single and Pazzaia in the double so they may have already decided Doyle and Colsh aren’t a good combination. Then again I think of all the potential changes to the already qualified combinations (and given how much Maurogiovanni has liked to tinker over the past couple of years there will be one or two) this is the most obvious. The four had a miserable worlds but is certainly capable of rapid improvement given the age profile and pedigree of the athletes in the boat. I do wonder if we would sacrifice the four in favour of just focusing on a quad and potentially moving Kearney or Dorney into that boat. I do hope we don’t operate with stringent sweep and sculling squads this year because allowing movement between the four and the quad could optimise both. The only scenario where we utilise a single is if we give up on the four or the quad.

Finally as a bold prediction for the year, I think we might out of choice race a new combination together at the Olympics. We have done it relatively successfully at two consecutive worlds so why not the Olympics.

(This is the short version, Originally I wrote 1500 words on rowing)

Shooting- Aoife Gormally (C)?, Jack Fairclough (V), Derek Burnett (V).

This is the qualification system I understand the least. There are I think 4 potential quota spots still available to us in trap (Gormally and Burnett) and skeet (Fairclough). 1 at Europeans, 2 at a final qualification event and 1 via rankings. Aoife Gormally is the only one who seems remotely likely to get a rankings spot but likely won’t.

Swimming- Women- Danielle Hill (L) (q), Victoria Catterson (V), Maria Godden (V), Grace Davison (V), Erin Riordan (V), Niamh Coyne (V), Ellie McCartney (V).

So it is still quite unclear how many athletes will qualify via consideration times (OCT) but my quick (not very thorough) calculations suggest not very many (2/3 per event maybe). So I think to qualify individually a swimmer will need to either hit the qualifying time or get very close to it. I’m not sure why Danielle Hill isn’t at worlds but I would be fairly confident she can swim a qualifying time in the 100 back at Irish champs. I wouldn’t completely rule out Catterson or Godden but they both seem very unlikely. Davison and Riordan’s qualification likely depends on the freestyle relay qualifying.

Men- Tom Fannon (F) (q), Calum Bain (V), Shane Ryan (F), Darragh Greene (C), Eoin Corby (V), Conor Ferguson (F), Max McCusker (V), Evan Bailey (V) John Shortt (F) (q), Nathan Wiffen (L) (q).

The picture on the men’s side of things is quite murky. Tom Fannon showed he was capable of swimming the 50m OQT but has to do it again. (Unless we change our selection policy, which we 100% definitely have never done in the past). Calum Bain isn’t that far behind him. Shane Ryan needs to get back in pb shape to qualify but you wouldn’t put it passed him. Darragh Greene also needs pb shape but is probably less likely to get back to it than Shane. Safer selection for the relay though. Conor Ferguson was unfortunate not to swim an OCT in the 100 back but probably needs to take a couple of tenths off his pb to qualify. I do like his chances though. It should be noted that we can only get 1 OCT qualifier per event so Ryan and Ferguson couldn’t both make it in the 100 back unless they both get the OQT. I think John Shortt will qualify. A 1.1 second pb to the OQT for a 16 year old in year feels very doable. Nathan Wiffen is slightly hindered by not being selected for worlds but if his short course form is anything to go on it would surprising if he didn’t get either of the 800 or 1500m OQTs.

Relays- Men’s medley (2q) (L) (WCs Ferguson, Greene, McCusker, Ryan), Women’s medley (q) (S) (Hill, Mcsharry, Walshe, Catterson), Womens 4*100 freestyle (F) (McSharry, Hill, Riordan (Davison), Catterson).

The women’s medley relay should be safe and means that Hill and Catterson should qualify regardless of their individual fortunes although not being able to improve on the time at this years worlds will lead to a nervous watch this year. The women’s freestyle 4*100 is obviously in a very precarious position in 15^th but it is possible that there will only be 18 or so entries this time around as well. We can improve our time too so it is a bit of a wait and see. I do wonder if we would use both quotas if we do qualify ie Riordan and Davison or use Hill and only use one of the additional relay quotas. The men’s medley is more up in the air. Obviously we are currently 13^th and would be pretty hopeful of swimming a faster time at this worlds although I think our attitude going in needs to be that we need a faster time to qualify. Then if we do qualify then we need two individual quotas (although the qualification document mentions scope for potentially a third one being granted). I somewhat doubt that 2 of the relay we put out last year will qualify although I hope we can get there. However if I am right that Tom Fannon and John Shortt both qualify then the relay picks would very likely be Greene and McCusker in that scenario.

Taekwondo- Jack Woolley (S) (q), Leroy Nsilu Dilandu (V).

It’s annoying that Jack narrowly missed out on a rankings quota but he will be the massive favourite at the European qualifiers. It would be a major shock if Dilandu got close to qualifying.

Triathlon- Russell White (C) (135 in the rankings) James Edgar (V) Erin McConnell (V).

Russell White has made it up to 135^th in the rankings off the back of a series of races towards the end of last year. 85^th is currently the last quota spot so it certainly is still possible he could make his second Olympics. Edgar and McConnell are very unlikely to qualify.

Weightlifting- Thammy Nguyen (C), Sean Browne (V)

Thammy Nguyen it appears would need a 17kg pb to qualify. That seems unlikely to me but I have no idea how the weightlifting quotas will end up looking so it possible she is actually much closer than that. Sean Browne would need an even bigger pb.

	Very unlikely qualifers	In with a chance	Fifty-fifty	Likely qualifers	Safe qualifiers	My picks	Already qualifed	Total
Athletics	31	14	12	9	7	20	8	28
Badminton	0	2	0	1	1	2	0	2
Boxing	2	0	2	2	2	5	5	10
Canoe- slalom	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Canoe- sprint	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- BMX	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- Mountain Biking	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- Road	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Cycling- Track	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	4
Diving	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	2
Equestrian	0	0	0	0	1	1	6	6
Field Hockey	0	32	0	0	0	0	0	0
Golf	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	4
Gymnastics artistic	1	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
Judo	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Modern Pentathlon	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rowing	2	4	4	0	4	8	12	20
Rugby Sevens	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	24
Sailing	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
Shooting	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Swimming	10	1	6	3	2	7	3	10
Taekwondo	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
Triathlon	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Weightlifting	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
	58	62	25	16	26	54	69	123

My projection	Probabalistic E(q)	Floor	Ceiling
123	129.1	113.35	139.15

So there are lots of flaws with the probabilistic approach including some double counting and also for example a hockey team for example can either qualify 16 or 0 and can never actually qualify the 6 or so hockey qualifiers that that approach projects. Ceiling and Floor are both just me shifting the probabilities up or down for the different categories. I would take them with a grain of salt but I just thought it was an interesting thing to do.

Anyway 120 qualifers feels pretty secure although a bad athletics summer is probably the most likely cause if we do fall short of that. A similar exercise that I did last March projected 118 qualifers so seemingly we are at worst on track for the qualifiers that have been decided so far. The one negative is in terms of spread of sports qualified in we look likely to be significantly behind Tokyo.

I am fully prepared for a disastrous couple of early season events in rowing/ boxing/ swimming to change this but right now I must say I am very optimistic with where we are both from a qualification and medal perspective.

rafalgorka · January 6

1. Denmark

2. Johannes Thingnes Boe

3. Kaori Sakamoto

4. Rory McIlroy (Surely he will win another major this year - Me for the 10th year in a row)

5. Canada

6. Spain (I actually think England but I can't bring myself to predict it)

7. USA

8. USA

9. Iga Swiatek

10. Atlanta Braves

11. Carlos Alcaraz

12. Max Verstappen

January 5

On 1/3/2024 at 5:29 PM, rafalgorka said:

This is awfully lot of quota for POL in W boxing (5). Well, I would love it if it works like that but I seriously doubt it.

I agree, Poland is unlikely to actually get 6 qualifiers from the 2 qualifying tournaments and the likes of Rok and Durkacz fell just on the right side of the quota line and aren't necessarily that likely to qualify. To be honest I suspect most countries where these rankings have them qualifying 5/6 more boxers will fall short of that number in reality.

On 1/3/2024 at 8:01 PM, Gagaska93 said:

In Polish national team I think that the biggest chance has Damian Durkacz as you wrote. But in my opinion Mateusz Bereźnicki (92 kg) is underrated, he is polish numeber 2 IMO.

It would be great if 5 POL W qualify, but I agree with rafalgorka that it would be hard. But I am sure about Wójcik and Rygielska. Szeremeta is a big talent and I also think she can make it.

I agree that Wojcik and Rygielska should be safe bets to qualify. Most of the best 57kg women have already qualifed and it isn't a particularly deep weight so I do like Szeremeta's chances even if she is only narrowly inside the quota line. Also as I mentioned at the start W54kg was an absolute nightmare to rank and there really isn't much at all between the top 18 or so at one point I had Drabik in the top 10 so certainly not a gauranteed qualifier but I'd feel pretty good about her chances too.

Look Bereznicki is a talented boxer and can absolutely beat the boxers just ahead of them in the rankings. I do think he is a tier below the likes of Nanitzanian, Okafor and Kartsan so for me it is tough to see him qualifying but absolutely he has a case to be in the top 25/26. I am just a little bit lower on him.

23 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

Do you mind if I use these rankings for my quota simulation? The current version is based on the IBA rankings but as you said, I found it incredibly unreliable.

Absolutely, work away.

Josh · January 3

50 minutes ago, Josh said:

@Ogreman where would Sara Kali be in the women’s 66kg rankings? She actually won the Canadian Boxing Trials for the first World Qualifier, although if she can’t book her ticket there, Cavanaugh will have another chance in a head-to-head battle for a spot at the second World Qualifier.

I did actually see this result, It was just an error that she wasn't listed at the bottom of the rankings. I put her 29th but obviously beating Cavanagh merits putting her higher but at the same time her historic results aren't very good.

16 minutes ago, Illya said:

Here are some insights from Ukrainian squads (not confirmed yet, but 70% possible according to the Trials-National Champs):

Thanks, Wasn't aware of any of that.

January 3

Finally I wanted to do a similar thing the country ranking above but for continents. Last time I brought like this up on this site I managed to start a very circular and aimless debate about the merit of continental quotas so to be clear this is much more about comparing Europe, Asia and the Americas than the merit of Oceania's quotas. Also the continental quotas were assigned based off performances in Tokyo where Russia won six medals so while Asia matches Europe in some of the men's weights points wise. It doesn't necessarily mean the quota allocations were wrong.

Continental Breakdown [Ranking points (Number of boxers)]	Africa	Americas	Asia	Europe	Oceania
W50kg	7 (1)	25 (2)	97 (8)	81 (9)	0 (0)
W54kg	0 (0)	10 (2)	112 (9)	88 (9)	0 (0)
W57kg	3 (1)	36 (4)	77 (6)	94 (9)	0 (0)
W60kg	4 (1)	45 (4)	72 (6)	89 (9)	0 (0)
W66kg	30 (2)	58 (6)	45 (4)	77 (8)	0 (0)
W75kg	14 (2)	55 (4)	43 (4)	82 (9)	16 (1)
Women's Continental Quotas	11	16	20	22	6
Projected Qualifing Tournaments Quotas	1	7	14	22	0
Women's Total	58 (7)	229 (22)	446 (37)	511 (53)	16 (1)

M51kg	8 (1)	34 (3)	95 (8)	73 (8)	0 (0)
M57kg	0 (0)	61 (4)	82 (8)	67 (8)	0 (0)
M63.5kg	0 (0)	62 (7)	65 (4)	72 (8)	11 (1)
M71kg	0 (0)	48 (5)	67 (5)	95 (10)	0 (0)
M80kg	0 (0)	51 (4)	81 (6)	78 (10)	0 (0)
M92kg	0 (0)	73 (6)	34 (4)	100 (9)	3 (1)
M92+kg	5 (2)	44 (4)	49 (4)	101 (9)	11 (1)
Men's Continental Quotas	7	14	14	22	7
Projected Qualifing Tournaments Quotas	0	17	17	22	0
Men's total	13 (3)	373 (33)	473 (39)	586 (62)	25 (3)

Continental Quotas	18	30	34	44	13
Projected Qualifing Tournaments Quotas	1	24	31	44	0
Total	71 (10)	602 (55)	919 (76)	1097 (115)	41 (4)

▪ Ranking points system used here is a linear ranking of the top 20 (20, 19, ..... , 2, 1) in each weightclass.

▪ Rankings cells show: Cumalative ranking points (Number of boxers in top 20)

Gagaska93 · January 3

	Country	Total Ranking points	Women's ranking points (Ranking)	Men's rankings points (Ranking)	Boxers (W,M)	Projected Qualifiers (Qualified)	Realistic qualification ceiling	Projected Olympic medallists	Olympic Medal ceiling
1	Uzbekistan	623	131 (19)	492 (1)	13 (6,7)	8 (4)	10	6	8
2	Kazakhstan	593	219 (10)	374 (2)	13 (6,7)	9 (2)	11	5	6
3	Ireland	583	355 (2)	228 (10)	12 (6,6)	10 (5)	11	5	6
4	USA	540	172 (14)	368 (3)	13 (6,7)	11 (5)	13	3	5
5	China	516	357 (1)	159 (21)	13 (6,7)	9 (7)	10	5	6
6	France	505	245 (5)	260 (6)	13 (6,7)	8 (7)	11	2	6
7	Brazil	504	228 (9)	276 (5)	13 (6,7)	11 (9)	11	2	6
8	Colombia	471	234 (6)	237 (8)	13 (6,7)	9 (3)	10	1	4
9	Great Britain	465	231 (8)	234 (9)	13 (6,7)	7 (3)	11	0	4
10	India	448	267 (3)	181 (18)	13 (6,7)	6 (4)	9	2	6
11	Turkey	436	256 (4)	180 (20)	13 (6,7)	8 (6)	8	2	4
12	Thailand	419	233 (7)	186 (16)	11 (6,5)	7 (4)	9	2	4
13	Italy	400	213 (12)	187 (15)	13 (6,7)	6 (4)	8	2	3
14	Ukraine	384	140 (18)	244 (7)	13 (6,7)	4 (1)	10	2	3
15	Bulgaria	358	155 (17)	203 (14)	10 (4,6)	4 (3)	8	2	4
16	Cuba	313	11 (68)	302 (4)	10 (3,7)	5 (3)	7	1	3
17	Spain	302	86 (27)	216 (13)	10 (3,7)	6 (2)	7	0	1
18	Chinese Taipei	280	219 (10)	61 (40)	8 (4,4)	6 (4)	7	2	2
19	Armenia	266	85 (28)	181 (18)	13 (6,7)	4 (0)	7	0	2
20	Germany	263	79 (33)	184 (17)	12 (5,7)	3 (0)	9	1	1
21	Mongolia	254	131 (19)	123 (27)	13 (6,7)	4 (2)	6	1	1
21	Poland	254	174 (13)	80 (35)	13 (6,7)	6 (0)	7	0	0
23	Azerbaijan	250	29 (55)	221 (12)	12 (5,7)	3 (2)	6	0	1
24	Canada	247	170 (15)	77 (36)	13 (6,7)	3 (2)	6	1	1
25	Australia	245	119 (24)	126 (25)	13 (6,7)	12 (12)	12	0	1
26	Philippines	243	90 (26)	153 (22)	10 (4,6)	3 (1)	5	0	3
27	Georgia	230	7 (77)	223 (11)	8 (1,7)	3 (1)	6	1	2
28	Serbia	225	128 (21)	97 (32)	11 (6,5)	2 (2)	6	0	0
29	Japan	224	106 (25)	118 (28)	10 (5,5)	5 (2)	7	0	2
30	Mexico	208	68 (37)	140 (24)	11 (5,6)	3 (2)	4	1	1
31	North Korea	202	165 (16)	37 (52)	9 (5,4)	2 (2)	3	1	2
32	Algeria	193	120 (23)	73 (37)	12 (5,7)	5 (5)	5	1	1
33	Dominican Republic	189	38 (46)	151 (23)	13 (6,7)	3 (1)	5	0	2
34	Venezuela	184	121 (22)	63 (39)	9 (6,3)	2 (1)	5	0	0
35	Tajikistan	148	34 (52)	114 (30)	12 (5,7)	3 (2)	4	0	1
36	Croatia	143	33 (53)	110 (31)	8 (3,5)	2 (1)	3	0	1
37	Ecuador	140	23 (59)	117 (29)	11 (4,7)	3 (2)	4	0	0
38	Hungary	129	36 (51)	93 (33)	11 (4,7)	2 (2)	5	0	0
39	Jordan	127	3 (90)	124 (26)	8 (2,6)	1 (0)	3	0	0
40	Morocco	123	81 (31)	42 (46)	13 (6,7)	3 (3)	3	0	0
40	Mozambique	123	85 (28)	38 (48)	10 (5,5)	2 (1)	3	0	0
40	Argentina	123	82 (30)	41 (47)	10 (6,4)	1 (0)	4	0	0
43	South Korea	117	80 (32)	37 (52)	13 (6,7)	1 (0)	1	0	0
44	Denmark	113	28 (56)	85 (34)	5 (2,3)	1 (1)	3	1	1
45	Romania	98	70 (35)	28 (62)	6 (3,3)	1 (1)	3	0	1
46	Norway	97	45 (44)	52 (44)	5 (2,3)	1 (0)	3	0	0
47	Sweden	85	70 (35)	15 (83)	4 (3,1)	2 (1)	3	0	0
48	Nigeria	84	55 (41)	29 (60)	9 (6,3)	3 (3)	3	0	0
49	Vietnam	80	71 (34)	9 (97)	8 (5,3)	1 (0)	1	0	1
50	Puerto Rico	79	57 (39)	22 (71)	6 (3,3)	2 (1)	3	0	0
51	Slovakia	76	38 (46)	38 (48)	6 (3,3)	0 (0)	2	0	0
52	Czech Republic	73	55 (41)	18 (79)	12 (6,6)	0 (0)	1	0	0
52	Finland	73	65 (38)	8 (101)	5 (4,1)	1 (0)	2	0	0
54	Zambia	71	13 (67)	58 (42)	8 (4,4)	1 (1)	1	0	0
55	Kyrgyzstan	70	0 (116)	70 (38)	7 (0,7)	0 (0)	1	0	0
56	Panama	68	57 (39)	11 (92)	5 (2,3)	1 (1)	1	0	1
57	DR Congo	67	21 (60)	46 (45)	12 (6,6)	1 (1)	2	0	0
57	Belgium	67	38 (46)	29 (60)	3 (2,1)	2 (2)	2	0	0
57	New Zealand	67	42 (45)	25 (64)	12 (6,6)	0 (0)	0	0	0
60	Egypt	66	9 (73)	57 (43)	11 (4,7)	3 (3)	4	0	0

Country	Global Ranking (points)	Women's rankings (points)	Men's rankings (points)	Boxers (W, M)	Projected Qualifiers (Qualified)	Realistic qualification ceiling	Projected medallist	Medal ceiling
Russia (WC squad)	586 (3)	220 (10)	366 (4)	13 (6,7)	12	13	3	5
Belarus (WC squad)	142 (37)	36 (52)	106 (32)	7 (4,3)	1	3	1	1

● Ranking system is a scale starting at 77 and then declining at declining intervals down to 6 points for the 40th ranked boxer in each weight class. Beyond the top 40 boxers in a weightclass the points assigned are a function of the total number of boxers in a given weightclass.

● It's a predominantly arbitrary point allocation system.

● Country rankings are a cumalative total of their respective indivual boxers ranking points. Highest possible country score is a 1000.

● Projected qualifiers refers to the number of boxers already qualified per nation plus the boxers that would fill the world qualifying tournament quota places based on my rankings. Naturally, they do not include the nine universality quota places.

● Realistic qualification ceiling is the number of boxers I perceive to be above a given threshold in every weight class below which I think a boxer would need a very lucky draw or favorable judging decisions to be in with a chance of qualifying at the world qualiying tournaments.

● Projected medallists are just the top four in every weightclass although it should be noted that these rankings are an assesment of how I would rank things now and not necessarily a projection for how I see the Olympics playing out.

● Medal ceiling is the total number of boxers who I would consider medal contenders. Medal contenders are roughly the top 8/9 ranked boxers in every weightclass but some weightclasses do differ slightly from that (High of 10, low of 6). Boxers outside this threshold will obviously win some medals at the Olympics given how volatile and unpredictable boxing can be but the vast majority of Olympic medals will be won by boxers inside these thresholds.

So I designed a ranking system outlined in part above to look at which countries had the strongest Olympic squads. This is not an assesment of the best boxing countries just how good they're Olympic squad is. Most of the results line up with what I expected but obviously there are a few strange ones.

Roamingrover86 · January 3

	M80kg (Light-Heavyweight)	M92kg (Heavyweight)	M92+kg (Super-Heavyweight)
1	Oleksandr Khyzhniak (UKR)	Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (ITA)	Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB)
2	Turabek Khabibullaev (UZB)	Jack Marley (IRL)	Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ)
3	Tuohetaerbieke Tanglatihan (CHN)	Keno Machado (BRA)	Nelvie Tiafack (GER)
4	Arlen Lopez (CUB)	Lazizbek Mullojonov (UZB)	Joshua Edwards (USA)
5	Eumir Marcial (PHI)	Julio Cesar La Cruz (CUB)	Delicious Orie (GBR)
6	Nurbek Oralbay (KAZ)	Enmanuel Reyes (ESP)	Marko Milun (CRO) <
7	Kelyn Cassidy (IRL)	Narek Manasyan (ARM)	Mahammad Abdullayev (AZE)
8	Wanderley Pereira (BRA)	Julio Castillo (ECU)	Nikoloz Begadze (GEO)
9	Taylor Bevan (GBR)	Loren Alfonso Dominguez (AZE)	Abner Teixeira (BRA) >
10	Christian Pinales (DOM)	Jamar Talley (USA)	Teremoana Teremoana Jnr (AUS)
11	Robby Gonzales (USA)	Berat Acar (TUR)	Fernando Arzola (CUB)
12	Georgi Kushitashvili (GEO)	Marlon Hurtado (COL)	Ayoub Ghadfa (ESP)
13	Hussein Iashaish (JOR)	Davlat Boltaev (TJK)	Danabieke Bayikewuzi (CHN)
14	Gabrijel Veocic (CRO)	Sagyndyk Togambay (KAZ) ?	Davit Chaloyan (ARM)
15	Murad Allahverdiyev (AZE)	Rogelio Romero (MEX)	Djamili Aboudou Moindze (FRA) >
16	Weerapon Jongjoho (THA)	Lewis Williams (GBR)	Christian Salcedo (COL)
17	Mindaugas Gediminas (NOR)	Soheb Bouafia (FRA)	Yousry Hafez (EGY)
18	Pylyp Akilov (HUN)	Ato Plodzicki-Faoagali (SAM)	Yordan Hernandez (BUL)
19	Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA)	Sanjeet Kumar (IND)	Danis Latypov (BHR)
20	Gazimagomed Jalidov (ESP)	Vagkan Nanitzanian (GRE)	Mourad Kadi (ALG)
21	Andrei Arodoaie (ROU)	Alexander Okafor (GER)	Omar Shiha (NOR)
22	Kevin Schumann (GER)	Arkadii Kartsan (UKR)	Dmytro Lovchynski (UKR) >
23	Vladimir Mironchikov (SRB)	Toufan Sharifi (IRN)	Vladan Babic (SRB)
24	Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (KGZ)	Han Xuezhen (CHN)>	Diego Lenzi (ITA)
25	Jhojan Caicedo (COL)	Marko Calic (CRO)	Amato Mataika (TGA)
26	Abraham Buonnarigo (ARG)	Adrian Paoletti (AUS)	Nigel Paul (TTO) <
27	Hambardzum Hakobyan (ARM)	Adam Olaitan Olaore (NGR) <	Diarga Balde (SEN)
28	Keven Beausejour (CAN)	Artyom Yordanyan (GEO)	Narendar Berwal (IND)
29	Ahmad Ghossoun (SYR)	Mohamed Houmri (ALG) <	Gerlon Congo (ECU)
30	Abdelrahman Oraby (EGY)	Mateusz Bereznicki (POL)	Zacharie Serge Mvogo Amougou (CMR)
31	Mathieu Bauderlique (FRA)	Erkin Adylbek Uulu (KGZ)	Alexei Zavatin (MDA)
32	Gradus Kraus (NED) ?	Yan Zak (ISR) <	Keddy Agnes (SEY)
33	Kim Jin-jea (KOR)	Albino Julio Gabriel (MOZ)	Byeknur Khali (MGL)
34	Gebhard Ipinge (NAM)	Gelian Rojku (ALB)	Elijah Mercury-Leafa (SAM)
35	Lakshya Chahar (IND)	Daniel Guzman (DOM)	Stan Bertens (NED)
36	Nikita Nystedt (FIN)	Levente Kiss (HUN)	Jonas Jazevicius (LTU)
37	Peter Pita Kabeji (COD)	Odai Al-Hindawi (JOR)	Miguel Veliz (CHI)
38	Callum Peters (AUS)	Karamba Kebe (SEN)	Partick Mailata (NZL)
39	Ganzorig Dalai (MGL)	Jeong Jae-min (KOR)	Jerome Feujio (CAN)
40	Kristyan Nikolov (BUL)	David Michalek (SVK)	Davilson dos Santos Morais (CPV) <
41	Kaan Aykutsun (TUR)	Andrews Salgado (CHI)	Oomatbek Elchoro Uulu (KGZ)
42	Shabbos Negmatulloev (TJK)	Ayoub Maanni (MOR) <	Stylianos Roulias (GRE)
43	Michail Tsamalidis (GRE)	Malcolm Matthes (NZL)	Iman Ramezanpour (IRN)
44	Anauel Ngamissengue (CGO)	Peter Alwanga (KEN) <	Javier Cruz (MEX)
45	Arjen Iseni (MKD)	Andrei Zaplitnii (MDA)	Muhammad Abroridinov (TJK)
46	Julio Alamos (CHI)	Maroy Sadiki (COD)	Ugur Aydemir (TUR)
47	Stiven Aas (EST)	Dorjiin Bariakhaan (MGL)	Mohamed Firisse (MOR)
48	Mohamed Assaghir (MOR)	Johnathan Tetteh (GHA) >	Martin Pinc (CZE)
49	Yusuf Changalawe (TAN)	Dzemel Bosnjak (BIH)	Jure Simunovic (SLO)
50	Seyidshahin Mousavi (IRN)	Hazem Nader Kandil (EGY)	Radoslaw Kawczak (POL)

	Imam Khataev (RUS) (2)	Muslim Gadzhimagomedov (RUS) (2)	Aleksey Dronov (RUS) (4)
	Aleksei Alfiorau (BEL) (3)	Aybek Oralbay (KAZ) (11)	Ahmed Hagag (AUT) ?? (15-20)
	Andrej Csemez (SVK) ?? (21)	Uladzislau Smiahlikau (BLR) (17)	Martin Mcdonagh (IRL) (28-32)

Roamingrover86 · January 3

	M57kg (Featherweight)	M63.5kg (Light-Welterweight)	M71kg (Light-Middleweight)
1	Abdumalik Khalokov (UZB)	Sofiane Oumiha (FRA)	Yurii Zakharieiev (UKR) <
2	Javier Ibanez Diaz (BUL)	Chinzorig Baatarsukh (MGL)	Aslanbek Shymbergenov (KAZ) <
3	Jahmal Harvey (USA)	Ruslan Abdullaev (UZB)	Marco Verde (MEX)
4	Makhmud Sabyrkhan (KAZ)	Lasha Guruli (GEO)	Nikolai Terteryan (DEN)
5	Luiz Oliveira (BRA)	Bunjong Sinsiri (THA)	Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (UZB)
6	Carlo Paalam (PHI)	Alexy de la Cruz (DOM)	Tugrulhan Erdemir (TUR)
7	Yilmar Gonzalez (COL)	Radoslav Rosenov (BUL)	Omari Jones (USA)
8	Saidel Horta (CUB)	Jose Viafara (COL)	Nishant Dev (IND)
9	Artur Bazeyan (ARM)	Bakhodur Usmonov (TJK)	Vakhid Abbasov (SRB)
10	Rujakron Juntrong (THA)	Harry Garside (AUS)	Makan Vie Traore (FRA)
11	Jude Gallagher (IRL)	Emilio Garcia (USA)	Sewon Okazawa (JAP)
12	Jose Quiles (ESP)	Dean Clancy (IRL)	Zeyad Eashash (JOR)
13	Muhammed Abu Jajeh (JOR)	Jesus Cova (VEN)	Magomed Schachidov (GER)
14	Umid Rustamov (AZE)	Wyatt Sanford (CAN)	Wanderson de Oliveira (BRA)
15	Daniyal Shahbaksh (IRN)	Lazaro Alvarez (CUB) ?	Damian Durkacz (POL)
16	Vasile Ustoroi (BEL)	Reese Lynch (GBR)	Jorge Cuellar (CUB)
17	Sachin Siwach (IND) ?	Viliam Tanko (SVK)	Jose Rodriguez (ECU)
18	Artyush Gomstyan (GEO) <	Miguel Ramirez (MEX)	Sarkhan Aliyev (AZE) <
19	Jaroslaw Iwanow (POL) <	Yaroslav Khartysz (UKR) < ?	Harris Akbar (GBR) ?
20	Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ)	Malik Hasanov (AZE)	Rami Kiwan (BUL)
21	Jose de los Santos (DOM)	Gianluigi Malanga (ITA)	Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (TKM)
22	Asror Vokhidov (TJK)	Jugurtha Ait Bekka (ALG)	Steve Kulenguluka Mbiya (COD)
23	Yoel Finol (VEN)	Louis Richarno Colin (MRI)	Angel Llanos (PUR)
24	Frederick Lundgaard Jensen (DEN) <	Richard Kovacs (HUN)	Tuguldur Byambatsogt (MGL) >
25	Murat Yildirim (GER)	Narek Hovhannisyan (ARM)	Eskerkhan Madiev (GEO)
26	Nebil Ibrahim (SWE)	Lai Chu-en (TPE)	Dean Walsh (IRL)
27	Shudai Harada (JAP)	Bilge Kagan Kanli (TUR) ?	Tiago Muxanga (MOZ)
28	Roland Veres (HUN)	Andrew Chilata (ZAM)	Junior Petanqui (CAN)
29	Dolapo Omole (NGR)	Yuri Falcao dos Reis (BRA)	Alban Beqiri (ALB)
30	Batuhan Ciftci (TUR)	Abdelhaq Nadir (MOR)	Jhonathan Arboleda (COL)
31	Jean Caicedo (ECU)	Jospeh Commey (GHA)	Christiann Palacio (VEN)
32	Ping Lyu (CHN)	Assan Hansen (GER)	Bruno Fernandes de Barros (CPV)
33	Lucas Fernandez (URU)	Fiston Mbaya (COD)	Youba Sissokho (ESP)
34	Miguel Vega (MEX)	Khursand Imankuliyev (TKM)	Peerapat Yeasungnoen (THA)
35	Michele Baldassi (ITA) ?	Adrian Thiam (ESP)	Davron Bozorov (MDA)
36	Jack Dryden (GBR) ?	Aleksej Sendrik (SRB)	Kan Chia-wei (TPE)
37	Fikremariyam Leta (ETH)	Alexandru Paraschiv (MDA)	Stephen Zimba (ZAM)
38	Lundaa Gantumur (MGL) ?	Yertugen Zeinnullinov (KAZ) ?	Merven Clair (MRI)
39	Taras Bondarchuk (UKR)	Chol Man Choe (PRK)	Wang Peicheng (CHN)
40	Alen Rustemovski (MKD)	Shiva Thapa (IND)	Shannan Davey (AUS)
41	O Tae Bom (PRK)	Arsen Chabyan (AUT)	Nuradin Rustambek Uulu (KGZ)
42	Armando Sigauque (MOZ)	Bartlomiej Roskowicz (POL)	Ryang Jang-thae (PRK)
43	Van Duong Nguyen (VIE)	Obada Al Kasbeh (JOR)	Omar Elawady (EGY)
44	Soulaimane Samghouli (MOR)	Ahmad Shtiwi (ISR)	Miroslav Kapuler Ischenko (ISR)
45	Abdul Wahib Omar (GHA) ?	Josh Tukamuhebwa (UGA)	Marjon Pianar (PHI)
46	Matvejs Prokudins (LAT)	Ali Qasim Hamdan Al-Sarray (IRQ)	Arena Pakela (LES)
47	Charlie Senior (AUS)	Askat Kultaev (KGZ)	Nidal Foqahaa (PLE)
48	Riad Labidi (FRA) ?	Petr Novak (CZE)	Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA)
49	Alain Christian Sangue (CMR)	Alseny Sylla (GUI)	Hamza Ghazouani (TUN)
50	Samuel Wairimu (KEN)	Samuel Contreras (ESA)	Albert Mengue Ayissi ((CMR)

	Mohamed Hussamudin (IND) (12)	Erislandy Alvarez (CUB) (3-5)	Igro Sviridchenkov (RUS) (14)
	Eduard Savvin (RUS) (15)	Gabil Mamedov (RUS) (10)	Aliaksandr Radzionau (BLR) (29)
	Samuel Kistohurry (FRA) (28)	Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbayuly (KAZ) (11)
		(Manny Pacquaio (PHI))

Roamingrover86 · January 3

	W66kg (Welterweight)	W75kg (Middleweight)	M51kg (Flyweight)
1	Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR)	Tamarra Thibeault (CAN)	Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB)
2	Amy Broadhurst (IRL) ?	Qian Li (CHN)	Saken Bibbosinov (KAZ)
3	Imane Khelif (ALG)	Lovlina Borgohain (IND) <	Billal Bennama (FRA)
4	Yang Liu (CHN)	Aoife O'Rourke (IRL)	Roscoe Hill (USA) <
5	Morelle McCane (USA)	Caitlin Parker (AUS)	Tomoya Tsuboi (JAP)
6	Janjaem Suwannepheng (THA)	Cindy Ngamba (EOR) (REF)	Deepak Bhoria (IND)
7	Rosie Eccles (GBR)	Atheyna Bylon (PAN)	Samet Gumus (TUR)
8	Charlie Cavanagh (CAN) ?	Davina Michel (FRA)	Martin Molina (ESP)
9	Alcinda Panguane (MOZ)	Elzbieta Wojcik (POL)	Thitisan Panmot (THA)
10	Barbara dos Santos (BRA)	Citlalli Ortiz (MEX) <	Yuberjen Martinez (COL) <
11	Chen Nien-chen (TPE)	Naomi Graham (USA)	Kiaran McDonald (GBR)
12	Camila Camilo (COL)	Busra Isildar (TUR)	Federico Serra (ITA)
13	Aneta Rygielska (POL)	Khadija El-Mardi (MOR)	Patrick Chinyemba (ZAM) >
14	Oshin Derieuw (BEL) <	Ani Hovsepyan (ARM) <<	Po Wei Tu (TPE)
15	Stefanie von Berge (GER)	Rady Gamane (MOZ)	Alejandro Claro Fiz (CUB)
16	Lucia Noelia Perez (ARG)	Sunniva Hofstad (NOR)	Aaron Jude Bado (PHI)
17	Stephanie Pineiro (PUR)	Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) <	Daniel Asenov (BUL)
18	Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB)	Kerry Davis (GBR)	Attila Bernath (HUN)
19	Emilie Sonvico (FRA)	Baison Manikon (THA)	Dmytro Zamotayev (UKR)
20	Milena Matovic (SRB)	Love Holgersson (SWE) >	So Chonryong (PRK)
21	Luca Hamori (HUN)	Anastasia Chernokolenko (UKR)	Sakhil Alakhverdovi (GEO)
22	Marissa Williamson (AUS)	Gabriele Stonkute (LTU) >	Jiamao Zhang (CHN)
23	Maria Moronta (DOM) >	Melissa Gemini (ITA)	Yunior Alcantara Reyes (DOM)
24	Assunta Canfora (ITA)	Maryelis Yriza (VEN)	Salah Ibrahim (GER)
25	Madeleine Angelsen (NOR)	Patricia Mbata (NGR)	Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (ARG)
26	Luna Beeloo (NED)	Deanne Read (NZL)	Rudolf Garboyan (ARM)
27	Arundhati Choudhary (IND)	Jessica Triebelova (SVK)	Azat Makhmetov (BHR)
28	Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV) >	Vivianne Pereira (BRA)	Masud Yusifzada (AZE)
29	Oumayma Bel Ahbib (MOR)	Irina Schonberger (GER)	Sean Mari (IRL)
30	Maria Bova (UKR) ?	Eseta Flint (TGA)	Ala Eddine Zidi (TUN)
31	Natalya Bogdanova (KAZ) ?	Nikolina Gajic (SRB)	Luis Delgado (ECU)
32	Beatrise Rozentale (LAT)	Monika Langerova (CZE)	Michael de Trindade (BRA)
33	Shoira Zulkaynarova (TJK)	Elizabeth Andiego (KEN)	Unabold Orkhontungalag (MGL) ?
34	Cara Wharerau (NZL)	Aziza Zokirova (UZB)	Nurzhigit Diushebaev (KGZ)
35	Hwang Hyo-sun (PRK)	Timea Nagy (HUN)	Jo Se-Hyeong (KOR)
36	Yuliannys Alvarez (VEN)	Enkhbaatar Erdenetuya (MGL)	Said Mortaji (MOR)
37	Tsetsegdari Myargmarsuren (MGL)	Lorena Balbuena (ARG)	Omer Ametovic (SRB) >
38	Shahla Allahverdiyeva (AZE)	Seong Su-yeon (KOR)	Yusuf Chothia (AUS)
39	Austeja Auciute (LTU)	Vasiliki Stavridou (GRE)	Mohamed Moziane (ALG)
40	Seon Su-jin (KOR)	Luisa Vasquez (COL)	Keymberth Gonzalez (ECU)
41	Brigitte Mbabi (COD)	Aynur Rzayeva (AZE)	Theophilus Allotey (GHA)
42	Paraskevi Mavrommati (GRE)	Marie-Joelle Mwika (COD)	Sinovuyo Mtintelwa (RSA)
43	Mireille Biindzi (CAM) >	Molka Ben Mabrouk (TUN)	Jakub Slominski (POL)
44	Sona Harutyunyan (ARM)	Ingrith Maldonado (ECU)	David Karanja Macharia (KEN)
45	Friza Asikoh (KEN)	Diem Quynh Luu (VIE)	Oscar Castaneda (MEX)
46	Mai Kito (JAP)	Yakelin Estornell (CUB)	Mohamed Otukile (BOT)
47	Francinah Kasemang (BOT)	Milena Jimenez (DOM)	David Alaverdian (ISR)
48	Marketa Tojnarova (CZE)	Kimberly Gittens (BAR)	Abdallah Mohamed Abdallah (TAN)
49	Olawunmi Shodipe (NGR)	Saraswati Rana (NEP)	Trofimus Johannes (NAM)
50	Sedja Sanogo (CIV)	Ornella Sathoud (GHA)	Yassine Nordine Issufo (MOZ) >

	Azalia Amineva (RUS) (10)	Anastasia Shamonova (RUS) (14)	Vasiliy Egorov (RUS) (7)
	Aryna Danilchyk (BLR) (42)	Alina Veber (BLR) (27)
	Sara Kali (CAN) (29)

Roamingrover86 · January 3

Right so here goes, W54kg was by far the trickiest weight to rank by a mile, lots of good but no great boxers.

Index

Example : Qualified boxer.
Example : Projected qualifier at the 2 world qualifying tournements.
First underline : Number of qualifiers in a given weightclass.
Second underline :Threshold for realistic qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments.
>/< Boxer could/ should be ranked higher (>) or lower (<) than they are.
? Boxer may be replaced for the world qualifying tournaments/ may not be their country's best boxer.
?? Boxer didn't compete at continental qualifiers for reasons I am unaware of.
(F)/ (L) - This is just a note that Tugsjargal Nomin-Erdene and Monkhor Namuun seemingly have swapped weightclasses as they both competed in differetn weight classes from where they commpeted at Asian Games at the Koln boxing cup.
These rankings include every boxer that competed at any of the continental Olympic qualifying tournaments.
I've listed the Russian and Belarussian world championships squads here under the rankings and an approximate ranking for them. The majority of these boxers as I understand are affiliated with their respective militaries and will not be eligible to qualify for the Olympics.
I've also added an approximate ranking for boxers who missed their continental qualifiers or are clearly more talented than the boxer that competed for their country at the continental qualifying tournaments and who would be in with a chance of qualifying for the Olympics. This could have been a more extensive list and I would expect lots of countries to tinker with their squads for the world qualifyiers but for simplicity I opted to restrict them to only clear cut cases

	W50kg (Flyweight)	W54kg (Bantamweight)	W57kg (Featherweight)	W60kg (Lightweight)
1	Buse Naz Cakiroglu (TUR)	Pang Chol-mi (PRK)	Lin Yu-ting (TPE)	Kellie Harrington (IRL)
2	Nikhat Zareen (IND)	Stanimira Petrova (BUL)	Irma Testa (ITA)	Beatriz Ferreira (BRA)
3	Wu Yu (CHN)	Huang Hsiao-wen (TPE)	Karina Ibragimova (KAZ)	Yang Wenlu (CHN)
4	Chuthamat Raksat (THA)	Jutamas Jitpong (THA)	Michaela Walsh (IRL)	Angie Paola Valdes (COL)
5	Thi Tham Nguyen (VIE) <	Yuan Chang (CHN)	Svetlana Staneva (BUL)	Won Ung-yong (PRK)
6	Ingrit Valencia Victoria (COL)<	Charley Sian Taylor Davison (GBR)	Nesthy Petecio (PHI)	Estelle Mossely (FRA)
7	Giordana Sorrentino (ITA)	Nigina Uktamova (UZB)	Amina Zidani (FRA)	Natalia Shadrina (SRB)
8	Wassila Lkhadiri (FRA)	Preeti (IND)	Jucielen Romeu (BRA)	Shona Whitwell (GBR)
9	Tsukimi Namiki (JAP)	Anastasia Kovalchuk (UKR)	Parveen Hooda (IND) >	Oh Yeonji (KOR)
10	Daina Moorehouse (IRL) >	Lacramioara Perijoc (ROU)	Jennifer Fernandez (ESP)	Rimma Volossenko (KAZ)
11	Caroline de Almeida (BRA) >	Hatice Akbas (TUR)	Valeria Arboleda (COL)	Agnes Alexiusson (SWE)
12	Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ)	Jennifer Lehane (IRL)	Omailyn Alcala (VEN)	Donjeta Sadiku (KOS)
13	Tetyana Kob (UKR)	Zhaina Shekerbekova (KAZ) >	Elise Glynn (GBR)	Wu Shih-yi (TPE)
14	Roumaysa Boualam (ALG)	Yeni Arias (COL) >	Monkhor Namuun (MGL) < (L?)	Nomin-Erdene Tugsjargal (MGL) (F?)
15	Pihla Kaivo-oja (FIN) <	Sirine Charaabi (ITA)	Julia Szeremeta (POL)	Jajaira Gonzalez (USA)
16	Laura Fuertes (ESP)	Sandra Drabik (POL) >	Xu Zichun (CHN)	Lenka Bernardova (CZE)
17	Yesugen Oyuntsetseg (MGL) >	Rinka Kinoshita (JAP)	Asleyann Lozada (PUR)	Cynthia Ogunsemilore (NGR)
18	Natalia Rok (POL)	Johana Gomez (VEN)	Khouloud Hlimi (TUN) >	Krisandy Rios (VEN)
19	Sabina Bobokulova (UZB)	Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (MGL)	Vilma Viitanen (FIN) <	Alessia Mesiano (ITA) ?
20	Zlatislava Chukanova (BUL)	Sara Cirkovic (SRB)	Claudia Nechita (ROU)	Elida Kocharyan (ARM)
21	Aldana Florencia Lopez (ARG)	Scarlett Delgado (CAN)	Melissa Mortensen (DEN)	Thananya Somnuek (THA)
22	Monique Suraci (AUS)	Bojana Gojkovic (MNE)	Marianna Basanets (UKR)	Jaismine (IND)
23	Aira Villegas (PHI)	Yoseline Perez (USA) ?	Mijgona Samadova (TJK)	Miroslava Jedinakova (SVK)
24	Nina Radovanovic (SRB)	Delphine Mancini (FRA)	Asya Ari (GER)	Sara Beram (CRO)
25	Maxi Klotzer (GER)	Sofia Robles (ARG)	Satsuki Yoshizawa (JAP) >	Hadjila Khelif (ALG)
26	Demie-Jade Resztan (GBR) > ?	Nikolina Cacic (CRO)	Marie Al-Ahmadieh (CAN)	Ayaka Taguchi (JAP)
27	Yasmine Moutaqui (MOR)	Mary Romero (ESP)	Alyssa Mendoza (USA) ?	Camila Pineiro (URU)
28	Anush Grigoryan (ARM)	Ekaterina Sycheva (ARM)	Aysen Taskin (TUR)	Chelsey Heijnen (NED)
29	Ingrid Gomez (MEX)	Widad Bertal (MOR)	Paek Jin-hyang (PRK)	Gizem Ozer (TUR)
30	Bak Cho-rong (KOR)	Tatiana de Jesus (BRA)	Sitora Turdibekova (UZB)	Raykhona Kodirova (UZB)
31	Jennifer Lozano (USA)	Estefani Almanzar (DOM)	Tina Rahimi (AUS)	Anna Jenni (SWI)
32	Susan Aguas (ECU)	Sara Haghighat-Joo (SLE)	Olga Papadatou (GRE)	(Rizwa Pasuit (PHI))
33	Tayonis Cedeno (VEN)	Antonia Giannakopoulou (GRE)	Porntip Buapa (THA)	Hanna Okhrei (UKR)
34	Kang Su-hyang (PRK) <	Zehra Milli (SWE)	Mahsati Hamzayeva (AZE)	Tyla McDonald (AUS)
35	Sofie Vinther Rosshaug (DEN)	Im Aeji (KOR)	Lucie Sedlackova (CZE)	Sandra Kruk (POL)
36	Thandolwethu Mathiba (RSA) <	Zeynab Rahimova (AZE)	Legnis Cala (CUB)	Maria Palacios (ECU)
37	Mckenzie Wright (CAN)	Irish Magno (PHI)	Ana Milisic (SWI)	Felistars Nkandu (ZAM)
38	Tasmyn Benny (NZL)	Ana khunjua (GEO)	Andjela Brankovic (SRB)	Esmeralda Falcon (MEX)
39	Rita Soares (POR)	Emma Jokiaho (FIN)	Marcelat Sakobi (COD)	Loredana Marin (ROU)
40	Nicole Durikova (SVK)	Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen (VIE)	Daisy Bamberger (PER)	Erin Walsh (NZL)
41	Wafa Hafsi (TUN)	Mayssen Lambot (BEL)	Keamogetse Kenosi (BOT)	Ana Starovoitova (LTU)
42	Aylin Jamez (GUA)	Hanna Lakotar (HUN)	Milagros Herrera (ARG)	Nisrine Amine (MOR)
43	Valeria Cardenas (CRC)	Claudia Totova (CZE)	Joy Ojo Nene (NGR) >	Victoria Saputo (ARG)
44	Danisha Mathialagan (SGP)	Denisse Bravo (CHI)	Jennifer Peters (NZL)	Teresa Makinen (FIN)
45	Benedicte Diyoka (COD)	Tiana Echegaray (AUS)	Chandrakala Thapa (NEP)	Islem Ferchichi (TUN)
46	Yuliett Hinestroza (PAN)	Iulia Coroli (MDA)	Tatevik Khachatryan (ARM)	Naomie Yumba (COD)
47	Adeola Oyesiji (NGR)	Yomna Ayyad (EGY)	Leilany Reyes (GUA)	Aslahan Mehmedova (BUL) >
48	Christine Ongare (KEN) >	Gloria Fernandez (MEX)	Laela El Ksiri (MOR)	Lena Buchner (GER)
49	Petra Mezei (HUN)	Fatma Abdelkader (ALG)	Miguelina Hernandez (DOM)	Mariam Sidibe (CIV) >
50	Gracemarie Quiles Marti (PUR)	Helen Sanchez (ECU)	Jennifer Carillo (MEX) < ?	Huswatun Hasanah (INA)

	Ekatarina Paltseva Kuts (RUS) (15)		Karina Tazabekova (RUS) (17)		Liudmila Vorontsova (RUS) (8)		Nadezhda Golubeva (RUS) (12)
	Yana Byrum (BLR) (30)						Ala Ivashkevich (BLR) (35)

Makedonas · January 3

So I decided to try and figure out who would be the likely qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments and well many many hours, lots of procrastinating and a contender for the ugliest excel file ever created later I ended up ranking every boxer who competed at the continental qualifying tournaments and doing well some other stuff too.

Obviously these are just my rankings and well I will fully admit aren't especially accurate even if I did spend a significant amount of time thinking about every position but they should at least be the most accurate boxing rankings out there.

Just quickly in terms of boxing rankings that already exist the IBA have a ranking which is based on points system based on how far you get into their competitions. Even in a normal cycle where everyone was competing in the IBA's competitions they would still be woefully inaccurate because of the way they are calculated. They are also self perpetuating given that these rankings determine seedings which then effect how far into competitions boxers get. Anyway they are completely useless.

Then boxrec has a ranking system which is accurate enough and as I understand based on the quality of your opponents you beat/ lose to. It does fall into weird pitfalls where sometimes it overrates/ underrates one group of boxers and then when they keep beating/ losing to eachother and it gets stuck in a cycle and ends up with some weird rankings as a result. Also if you keep losing to good boxers without fighting bad ones or only beat bad boxers without ever fighting good ones it can end up with weird rankings. Finally while boxrec results database is very good it is still missing a lot of competitions particularly outside of Europe.

And then finally Taylor O'Higgins (worth a follow on twitter) used to do an amateur boxing rankings on the Fight site and he is a boxing coach so obviously knows a lot more about the actual boxing side of things than I would. He has mentioned doing the rankings again a couple of times on twitter but as far as I know hasn't posted them.

So ye hopefully these fill a bit of a hole and help with some of the qualifying/ medal projections on this site where some of the boxing related projections have been a bit hit and miss.

I'll only post the top 50 boxers in each weightclass and the top 60 or so in my country rankings but I have linked an Excel file with the complete rankings of every weight class and ranked every country plus the same stuff but broken down by continental if anyone wants to look at them.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RN05tE5ipfkwHf_7c4vNLpV89zaHfMWw/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113545580127855067750&rtpof=true&sd=true

(To be clear this is not the ugly Excel file I referred to earlier)

Josh · December 4, 2023

Is there not a scale here though, I don't think anyone is advocating for an Olympics where only the best athletes compete regardless of the country/ continenent they represent. But at the same time the Olympics should primarily have the best athletes.

Again to reiterate there has been no issue at recent Olympics with Oceania being represented in boxing. If that automatic continental quota had been reallocated to Asia/ (in the womens weights where 4 qualified in Asia to one of the world qualifying tournaments ) you still would have your global spread and a number of boxers representing Oceania but the overall standard of the tournament would also be higher.

I'm not going to convince you on the three chances thing am I? I just don't like how much a role random chance plays in deciding these quotas. Obviously, there will always be an element of random chance in any qualification system and sport without any chance involved is very boring but like for me at least that number is way too high in boxing.

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