Ogreman

14 hours ago, Josh said:

@Ogreman what did you think about the Sanford-Oumiha bout?

I thought it was a really good and enjoyable fight. It was the right decision though, Oumiha is ridiculously accurate and Sanford doesn't really move his head much so every single shot Oumiha threw landed. Second and third rounds were both close and Sanford landed some really good punches but while the French have gotten a couple of hometown decision, this wasn't one of them and I didn't have any issue with the scoring here.

 

14 hours ago, intoronto said:

Announcers: Sanford did much of the work! Majority of judges: let's give the round to his opponent!

 

I hope this sh*t is gone after Paris

There is an important distinction to be made here between doing more of the work and landing more/ landing better punches. Doing more work is just a means to an end, the latter is the scoring criteria.

15 hours ago, Oldira said:

I thought this forum would be hectic all week but a lot of Irish contributors have disappeared. Wonder are they actually at the games? I miss Ogreman and his boxing and rowing analysis.

Not at the games, just haven't posted much during the games so apologies for that. Just haven't had as much time as I would have needed to do some of the things I had kind of wanted to get done. On the boxing, I just haven't had that many sophisticated thoughts on it beyond erratic judging and a dissapointing Irish display that I haven't fully got my head around. I missed a few sessions that I haven't had the chance to catch up on and the majority of the rest with the exception of the Irish fights it has been my second/third screen and boxing kind of needs your full focus. (plus that boxing thread has descended into some form of madness I do not think I can tame.)

That said I do think my predictions/ rankings ultimately held up a little better than they were trending towards after the first few days but I won't have a full look back on them until after the boxing finishes and those first couple of days were just me wondering how I had spent so much time watching all of these fellas only to get so much so badly wrong.

This does remind me I need to do a wrap up of my rowing form rankings but I was planning to update them daily and just didn't in the end.

But yeah there were other things I wanted to do even smaller pieces of analysis on and just didn't get around to but I will post most of my thoughts once the games are over.

So apologies, but it's nice to know someone misses me when I go somewhat quiet on this forum.

Look at the replay of the start lads. For me the Brits and the Americans are also over the line early. No idea how they don't restart a race where four boats are called back and for me it looks like at least 2 more are also over the line early.

 

They slipped back because they took risks on the second and third leg which they didn't actually need to take. If they had just followed the Poles on the third leg, they would have medalled but they tacked early and try to go up the right hand side and it didnt work. Don't discredit their performance based on the medal race. They have been great all week and deserved a medal.

2 hours ago, Roamingrover86 said:

Did you watch Amit v Chinyamba bout? How did you score it as a neutral?

I had it on but wasn't fully focused on it so only saw bits and pieces. Didn't have an issue with Chinyemba winning based on what I saw but I didn't see the full fight so can't really comment on it. I will try to watch it later. There are a few other fights I need to properly rewatch as well.

On 7/27/2024 at 3:22 AM, Ogreman said:

Olympics form guide/ projections

 

M1X

W1X

M2-

W2-

M2X

W2X

LM2X

LW2X

M4-

W4-

M4X

W4X

M8+

W8+

1

GER

NED

GBR

NED

NED

ROU

IRL

GBR

USA

GBR

NED

GBR

GBR

ROU

2

NED

AUS

ROU

AUS

IRL

LTU

SUI

NZL

NZL

NED

POL

NED

NED

USA

3

NZL

NZL

SUI

ROU

ROU

USA

ITA

USA

GBR

ROU

ITA

CHN

USA

CAN

4

GRE

USA

CRO

IRL

ESP

AUS

FRA

ROU

AUS

USA

GBR

USA

ROU

AUS

5

AIN

AIN

ESP

DEN

GER

NOR

NOR

CAN

ITA

NZL

SUI

UKR

AUS

GBR

6

DEN

SRB

IRL

GRE

ITA

IRL

UKR

IRL

FRA

CHN

GER

GER

GER

ITA

7

CRO

GER

RSA

USA

NZL

NZL

ESP

FRA

NED

IRL

ROU

SUI

ITA

DEN

8

ROU

AUT

USA

LTU

FRA

FRA

GRE

GRE

ROU

AUS

NOR

ROU

9

USA

ESP

NZL

CZE

USA

CHN

CZE

CHN

SUI

DEN

EST

AUS

10

JPN

SUI

ITA

ESP

SRB

CZE

BEL

POL

11

BUL

LTU

AUS

NZL

NOR

NED

MEX

AUT

12

LTU

BUL

LTU

CHI

CHN

ITA

JPN

TUN

13

BEL

UZB

GER

GBR

CRO

GBR

UZB

JPN

14

BRA

AZE

CHI

IRI

15

SLO

RSA

ARG

PER

16

HUN

SLO

EGY

ARG

17

MON

MEX

18

URU

TUR

19

EGY

BRA

20

TUN

PAR

21

CUB

ALG

22

BER

IRI

23

IND

PER

24

PAR

UGA

25

KAZ

PHI

26

ALG

VIE

27

INA

CUB

28

ZIM

TOG

29

HKG

NCA

30

LBA

SGP

31

THA

MAR

32

SUD

KUW

33

ANG

Just updating these with early eliminated boats/ finalists. Apologies for the purple but I couldn't find a good colour, All the reds look like bronze. Lithuania's double obviously the big early loser but it was a complete lottery what kind of form they would show up with. Speaking of the women's double. The two semi-finals there are ridiculously lopsided, Romania, USA, Australia, Norway and the Brits who looked good in their heat, all in the semi final. Given Ireland's in the other one I'm not complaining. China LW2x caught a massive crab which is why they are gone and Italy's new men's double just didn't work. Quads have mostly gone roughly to form although China's women don't look they will medal.

Olympic Predictions (M92+kg, Predicted Medal Table)

 

M92+kg

 

Gold- Bakhodir Jalolov (1) , Silver- Kamshybek Kunkabayev (2) , Bronze- Joshua Edwards (4) , Bronze- Abner Texeira (6) .

 

	Seedings
1	Joshua Edwards (USA)	8	Mahammad Abdullayev (AZE)
2	Delicious Orie (GBR)	7	Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ)
3	Mourad Kadi (ALG)	6	Abner Texeira (BRA)
4	Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB)	5	Teremoana Jnr (AUS)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Joshua Edwards (4) .

 

Very interesting bracket to start off. Nelvie Tiafack (5)  and Mahammad Abdullayev (11)  reacquaint with each other after Abdullayev beat Tiafack to qualify for the Olympics back at European games. Tiafack had won when they met prior to that. Tiafack is inconsistent and both he and Abdullayev are quite similar being kind of traditional bruising powerful super-heavyweights that don’t move a whole lot. Diego Lenzi (10)  has taken a couple of quality scalps earlier this year (Orie and Ghadfa Drissi el Aissaoui) but has an uphill task against Panam champion Josh Edwards. Edwards is a tidy boxer but physically he is not as built as most heavyweights and whether it is Tiafack or Abdullayev, it will be interesting to see how he deals with that level of power. I like his chances though.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Bakhodir Jalolov (1) .

 

Defending champion Bakhodir Jalolov is the most clear cut favourite in boxing, last lost a fight in 2018 and has beaten most of his primary competition here including Teremoana Jnr (3)  who is his toughest opponent between him and a medal. Teremoana packs a serious punch and should be able to dispatch Dmytro Lovchynskyi (14)  in his opening fight. Omar Shiha (13)  enjoyed a stroke of luck to qualify with a cut ending Danabieke Bayikewuzi’s hopes but got no luck here and will do well to last 3 rounds against Jalolov.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Abner Texeira (6) .

 

On paper the weakest of the four brackets. Both last 16 fights should be fairly straightforward wins for Djamili Aboudou Moindze (12)  against Mourad Kadi (16)  who does have the odd good win on his resume and Abner Texeira against the tricky Gerlon Congo (15)  who Texeira has beaten before. That would set up an fascinating quarter final between Aboudou Moindze and Texeira with both boxers having beaten each other in the past, with the most recent contest going in favour of the home boxer. With home advantage I really feel like I should pick the Frenchman but I do think Texeira is the significantly more talented boxer and as such expect him to produce the goods when it counts.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Kamshybek Kunkabayev (2) .

 

Quality bracket this where all four of these boxers have significant pedigree. 2021 world silver medallist Davit Chaloyan (9)  meets European champion Delicious Orie (8) . Orie has had some bad losses of late and the Brits comparing him to Anthony Joshua is delusional but he is talented and for me should beat Chaloyan. World bronze medallist Ghadfa Drissi el Aissaoui (7)  faces Olympic bronze medallist Kamshybek Kunkabayev in what should be quite a close fight. Ghadfa Drissi el Aissaoui is a big man and consistent operator but I will back Kunkabayev although he is the boring pick. Kunkabayev against Orie should also be close but I’m not that convinced by Orie so let’s back Kunkabayev.

 

Medal Fights

 

Josh Edwards (4)  vs Bakhodir Jalolov (1) , Abner Texeira (6)  vs Kamshybek Kunkabayev (2) .

 

While I think Edwards is talented, he won’t get close to Jalolov. I’m close to certain the second semi-final will be different than this prediction but if this was the particular semi-final, I’ll stick with the boring pick of Kunkabayev. The final would then be a renewal of the Kunkabeyev vs Jalolov rivalry although calling it a rivalry is generous as Jalolov has always won this matchup comfortably consistently.

 

Gold- Bakhodir Jalolov , Silver- Kamshybek Kunkabayev , Bronze- Joshua Edwards , Bronze- Abner Texeira .

 

Predicted medal table
	Predicted Gold	Predicted Silver	Predicted Bronze	Total medals	Contenders (Top 8 in rankings)
Uzbekistan	3	1	1	5	8
Turkey	2	0	0	2	3
Kazakhstan	1	2	1	4	6
France	1	1	1	3	4
Ireland	1	0	2	3	7
Chinese Taipei	1	0	1	2	3
Italy	1	0	0	1	3
North Korea	1	0	0	1	2
Canada	1	0	0	1	1
Ukraine	1	0	0	1	1
China	0	3	0	3	6
India	0	1	3	4	4
USA	0	1	2	3	4
Cuba	0	1	1	2	5
Philippines	0	1	1	2	3
Thailand	0	1	0	1	3
Romania	0	1	0	1	1
Brazil	0	0	3	3	6
Bulgaria	0	0	2	2	4
Georgia	0	0	2	2	2
Australia	0	0	1	1	3
Colombia	0	0	1	1	3
Congo	0	0	1	1	3
Spain	0	0	1	1	2
Azerbaijan	0	0	1	1	1
Dominican Republic	0	0	1	1	1
South Korea	0	0	1	1	1
Great Britain and NI	0	0	0	0	3
Serbia	0	0	0	0	2
Algeria	0	0	0	0	1
Croatia	0	0	0	0	1
Denmark	0	0	0	0	1
Refugee team	0	0	0	0	1
Germany	0	0	0	0	1
Mexico	0	0	0	0	1
Norway	0	0	0	0	1
Panama	0	0	0	0	1
Poland	0	0	0	0	1
Tajikistan	0	0	0	0	1
Zambia	0	0	0	0	1

 

So I have Uzbekistan expected to top the medal table with Turkey in a very precarious second, Decent and successful games for Kazakhstan, Ireland, France and Chinese Taipei. I have India winning a miraculous four medals and while the USA and China would be happy with 4 and 3 medals respectively the lack of gold would frustrate them. I should note this is already wrong as Oh Yeonji  lost today to Wu Shih-yi .

Olympics Predictions (M71kg, M92kg)

 

M71kg

 

Gold- Aslanbek Shymbergenov (1) , Silver- Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (3) , Bronze- Omari Jones (6) , Bronze- Nishant Dev (7) .

 

	Seedings
1	Shannan Davey (AUS)	8	Kan Chia-wei
2	Marco Verde (MEX)	7	Jose Rodriguez (ECU)
3	Sewon Okazawa (JPN)	6	Vakhid Abbasov (SRB)
4	Nikolai Terteryan (DEN)	5	Omar Elawady (EGY)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Omari Jones (6) .

 

The most open division of all. Top 8 ranked boxers all probably have legitimate dreams of topping the podium. This top bracket is fairly predictable with 2021 67kg world silver medallist Omari Jones being the pick of the bunch. He opens his account against surprise Asian silver medallist Chia Wei Kan (18)  in the last 16. His likely quarter final opponent is Damian Durkacz (12)  although Durkacz who competed in Tokyo at 63kg does have a tough size mismatch against natural 75kg Rami Kiwan (14)  who used his height and reach advantage well to beat the similar in size and style Wanderson de Oliveira at the 1^st world qualifier and could do it again here against Durkacz. Shannan Davey (20)  is somewhat hilariously technically the number 1 seed while also being my lowest ranked boxer. He is tall and not the easiest opponent to hit but would be shocked if he beat Durkacz or Kiwan. Jones should be too quick and agile for Durkacz or Kiwan but he himself is also on the smaller side and could struggle a bit against the range of Kiwan.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (3) .

 

Really tough bracket to call. Olympic bronze medallist Aidan Walsh (8)  opens things up against Makan Traore (15) who he should be too good for but will have to overcome the French home advantage. 67kg world champion Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev meets African champion Omar Elawady (19)  in the most one sided fight in this bracket. Assuming Walsh wins his first fight, that would set a fascinating fight with European champion Nikolai Terteryan (4) . Terteryan is a quality operator but it will be interesting how he deals with Walsh’s counterpunching and defensive skills. The winner would then meet Muydinkhujaev who is mobile and difficult to hit. I tentatively would back Aidan Walsh to beat Terteryan although that is taking nothing away from Terteryan’s quality and then would pick Muydinkhujaev to take a narrow split decision in a scrappy fight against Walsh in the quarter finals but I really amn’t sure.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Aslanbek Shymbergenov (1) .

 

Another tricky one with 2021 67kg world champion Sewon Okazawa (5)  reacquainting himself with reigning 71kg world champion Aslanbek Shymbergenov. They met in the semifinal of Asian games and a very controversial decision went in favour of Okazawa. Both are counterpunchers so expect an ugly fight. Shymbergenov does have to beat the aggressive Zeyad Eashash (9)  beforehand but he has navigated that matchup before. The other side of this bracket sees an interesting matchup between two European medallists Lewis Richardson (11)  and Vakhid Abbasov (10) . Another massive size mismatch in favour of Richardson and on current form, I might back Richardson. Regardless the winner of Shymbergenov vs Okazawa fight should medal here although I really hope it is Shymbergenov because I don’t like Okazawa’s style or his nonsense showboating.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Nishant Dev (7) .

 

The final bracket should be fairly straightforward until the quarter finals. Firstly World bronze medallist Nishant Dev should be much too good for Jose Rodriguez (16) . Late entry Magomed Schachidov (13)  should also be comfortably able to beat Tiago Muxanga (17)  who is one of the better universality qualifiers. Panam Champ Marco Verde (2)  should then beat Schachidov although Schachidov is tough to beat and will make him work for it. Nishant vs Verde should be a close fight. Nishant won when they met at the 2021 world championships. Verde likes to come forward and Nishant is most effective when is opponent comes to him so while I think Verde is one of the best boxers in this draw, this matchup does suit Nishant.

 

Medal Fights

 

Omari Jones (6)  vs Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (3) , Aslanbek Shymbergenov (1)  vs Nishant Dev (7) .

Both semifinals will be close and I’m certain that my predictions up to this point won’t prove accurate so predicting the medal rounds here is a fool’s errand but anyway, Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev assuming he can beat Walsh or Terteryan would then be favoured against Omari Jones. Aslanbek Shymbergenov has beaten Nishant (and Marco Verde) before which would set up a rematch with Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev in the final. At Asian games Muydinkhujaev took a scrappy opening two rounds against Shymbergenov to take control of the fight before Shymbergenov unleashed hell in the final round to ultimately force 3 standing counts and the stoppage. So despite spending this entire cycle believing that while Shymbergenov is talented, not good enough to win and that I wouldn’t pick him for gold, I am picking him to win gold.

 

Gold- Aslanbek Shymbergenov , Silver- Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev , Bronze- Omari Jones , Bronze- Nishant Dev .

 

 

M92kg

 

Gold- Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (1) , Silver- Julio Cesar la Cruz (3) , Bronze- Georgi Kushitashvili (8) , Bronze- Enmanuel Reyes (7) c.

 

	Seedings
1	Ato Plodzicki Faoagali (SAM)	8	Han Xuezhen (CHN)
2	Davlat Boltaev (TJK)	7	Jack Marley (IRL)
3	Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (ITA)	6	Keno Machado (BRA)
4	Julio Cesar la Cruz (CUB)	5	Adam Olaore (NGR)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Enmanuel Reyes (7) .

 

So in theory this is quite a straightforward bracket. Enmanuel Reyes is by far the most talented of the boxers in this section but opens his account against the awkward and difficult to hit Han Xuezhen (13) . Meanwhile, the even more frustrating to box and 2021 world 86kg medallist Victor Schelstraete (12) meets Ato Plodzicki-Faoagali (15) . Schelstraete likes to draw boxers in with a low guard, poke out a jab with his long reach and then tie his opponent up and I suspect that strategy will work against the plodding Plodzicki-Faoagali who only knows how to come forward. I do really hope Plodzicki-Faoagali could sneak a win here after the news about his coach. Schelstraete will give Reyes some trouble but you would have to trust Reyes to produce when it counts. Schelstraete has a real shot though.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick-Julio Cesar la Cruz (3) .

 

So I’ve gone back and forth with my thoughts on two time Olympic champion Julio Cesar la Cruz over this Olympic cycle. He has lost a step and isn’t as agile as he once was but he does move quite well and the punch picking is still there. He has got an interesting first fight against former Cuban and fellow Olympic medallist Loren Alfonso (6) . I wouldn’t call this a fight to watch as it will likely more closely resemble a staring contest than a boxing fight. They last met in 2019 where naturally la Cruz won unanimously. In the other fight Adam Olaore (16)  faces 86kg Asian champion Aybek Oralbay (5)  in what should be a straightforward win for the Kazakh. Oralbay will test La Cruz and the Cuban will need to be on his game but you would have to back la Cruz.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick-Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (1) .

 

This bracket is absolutely stacked and world silver medallist Mouhiidine could not have got a tougher draw. The world bronze medallist Lazizbek Mullojonov (4)  is first up for Mouhiidine. Mullojonov is a very complete boxer with very few weaknesses but I do think Mouhiidine’s back foot boxing should prevail. I thought Keno Machado (2)  deserved to beat la Cruz last year but didn’t get the decision and now has a very tough path to a medal. He matches up against bruiser Patrick Brown (10) . He beat Brown in Finland at the end of 2022 although Brown has improved since, not enough to flip this fight though. We then should get one of if not the best fights in this division with Mouhiidine matching up against Machado. Talent wise you could make a case for Machado but Mouhiidine has been there and done it albeit not yet at the Olympics of course.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Georgi Kushitashvili (8) .

 

I wasn’t feeling great about Jack Marley’s (9)  medal hopes over the last couple of months but this draw brings him right into contention. European games silver medallist Marley has met counterpuncher Mateusz Bereznicki (14)  before having beaten him at European under 22s 2 years ago. Kushitashvili doesn’t have the easiest of opening fights against Asian champion and quality counterpuncher Davlat Boltaev (11) . 86kg world medallist Kushitashvili has looked really good since moving up to heavyweight having initially tried to qualify at 80kg but is not the fastest and has lost to counterpunchers before. Kushitashvili vs Marley is potentially a really interesting fight with Marley’s speed likely to give Kushitashvili some trouble but reluctantly I will back the experienced Kushitashvili.

 

Medal Fights

 

Enmanuel Reyes (7)  vs Julio Cesar la Cruz (3) , Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (1)  vs Georgi Kushitashvili (8) .

If Mouhiidine can get this far he will beat Kushitashvili and while I’m sure Enmanuel Reyes would love to avenge his Tokyo quarter final loss to la Cruz, I don’t see it happening. Mouhiidine vs la Cruz would be a fascinating final with neither boxer likely to want to take the initiative. There is logic in picking la Cruz to win a third Olympic title especially given how tough Mouhiidine’s path to the final is but at this point in their respective careers it seems to me like this is Mouhiidine’s to lose

 

Gold- Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine , Silver- Julio Cesar la Cruz , Bronze- Georgi Kushitashvili , Bronze- Enmanuel Reyes .

Olympic Predictions (M51kg, M57kg)

 

M51kg

 

Gold- Hasanboy Dusmatov (1) , Silver- Billal Bennama (3) , Bronze- Amit (5) , Bronze- Nijat Huseynov (10) .

	Seedings
1	Bilal Bennama (FRA)	8	Michael de Trindade (BRA)
2	Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB)	7	Samet Gumus (TUR)
3	Patrick Chinyemba (ZAM)	6	Thitisan Panmot (THA)
4	Junior Alcantara (DOM)	5	Yusuf Chothia (AUS)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Billal Bennama (3) .

 

So despite what others in this thread have tried to claim. No France did not get easy draws. About half of their boxers got tough draws and half of them got good draws. This for example is a tough draw when it was possible if not likely multi time European champion and two time world medallist Billal Bennama would have a fairly easy path to the medal fights. Instead he faces 2021 world silver medallist Roscoe Hill (4)  in the last 16 assuming Hill beats Omid Ahmadisafa (16) . Both Hill and Bennama’s form has been questionable of late with both suffering recent surprise defeats and style wise they are quite similar as well. Both look to box on the outside and are effective on the move and they may well cancel each other out so while I wouldn’t expect it to be a great spectacle, it should be one of the best fights in this division.

 

Alejandro Claro (6)  just has to navigate a fight with Michael de Trindade (15)  to await the winner of Bennama vs Hill. Claro is not quite in the top tier of boxers in this division and would have been hoping for a better draw. Hill edged past Claro at Panam games, Hill deserved to win but did not deserve the 10-8 final round one of the judges awarded him to flip the outcome of the fight. Bennama on the other hand faced Claro in  Cuba vs France match earlier this year. Claro technically won but only because the fight was in Cuba with Cuban judges. Bennama deserves to be favourite here but both Hill and Claro will fancy their chances and I expect 2 very close fights here.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Nijat Huseynov (10) .

 

Flyweight had some surprise qualifiers, some as a result of shock results, a couple as a result of weak brackets and some just a consequence of the parity in this weight class but the consequence of these is that flyweight lacks that many top tier medal contenders and it was always possible we get a bracket like this where my highest ranked boxer is 10^th. This one is tough to predict though. The fight I am very willing to call is 2022 world youth bronze medallist Rafa Lozano Jr (11)  against Yusuf Chothia (17) , with the Spaniard being a comfortable favourite.

 

Both Nijat Huseynov and Junior Alcantara (13)  upset Roscoe Hill in quota fights and having both gone into their respective fights as massive underdogs. Nijat Huseynov is a European under 22 champion and did also beat world bronze medallist Deepak Bhoria  at that first world qualifier. He is a decent counterpuncher, but doesn’t move as effectively or smoothly as you would expect given his style. Alcantara is somehow Panam champion and isn’t easy to box. You would have to back Huseynov to win this fight and while an impressive young boxer it is hard to see Lozano beating Huseynov either. They are all inexperienced though with Huseynov being the oldest of the 3 contenders for this medal at just 21.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Amit Panghal (5) .

 

So 2019 world silver medallist Amit Panghal having failed to medal as the top seed in Tokyo and then not be picked for the first two qualifiers, it seemed like his Olympic medal hopes were gone but now he is a favourite to medal. Patrick Chinyemba (8)  is a tricky opponent and one of the strongest African boxers here but Amit has beaten him before at commonwealth games. In the other last 16 fight Asian silver medallist Thitisan Panmot (7)  takes on the difficult to peg David de Pina (14) . De Pina is pretty impressive to watch, he moves and picks his shots very effectively but yet he has some atrocious losses on his resume. Panmot is a fairly talented boxer and is effective on the front foot which will be crucial for his chances against Amit who has struggled when put under pressure and doesn’t move as well as he used to. That said, I haven’t quite been convinced by Panmot and would be relatively confident in Amit’s chances

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Hasanboy Dusmatov (1) .

 

So just like at Asian games world champions Saken Bibossinov (2)  and Hasanboy Dusmatov look set to meet before the medal rounds. They have met 3 times with Bibossinov winning on his way to his 2021 world title before Dusmatov won the two more recent matchups at Asian champs in 2022 and Asian Games last year. For me Dusmatov is the better and more reliable boxer and I would be surprised if Bibossinov could overturn this one. Bibossinov is also vulnerable to surprise losses and does have a tricky enough last 16 fight against Samet Gumus (9) . Dusmatov should not have any trouble beating Juanma Lopez (12)  despite the young Puerto Ricon’s talents.

 

Medal Fights

 

Bilal Bennama (3)  vs Nijat Huseynov (10) , Amit (5)  vs Hasanboy Dusmatov (1) .

 

If these prove to be the medal fights, I can only really see them playing out one way. Bennama if he can navigate Hill and Claro should be able to beat the similar stylistically Huseynov unless he takes his eye off the ball. Amit does actually have a win against Dusmatov from 2018 albeit with 2 losses the previous year in 2017. Despite Dusmatov actually being the older of the 2, at this point in their career, their appears to only be one winner. Dusmatov and Bennama met in the world final last year and Dusmatov landed a KO in the first round so even with home advantage Bennama doesn’t appear to have path to winning this. That said I should add the caveat that this division incredibly unpredictable in qualifying so these medals and their respective colours could easily prove woefully inaccurate.

 

Gold- Hasanboy Dusmatov , Silver- Billal Bennama , Bronze- Amit , Bronze- Nijat Huseynov .

 

 

M57kg

 

Gold- Abdumalik khalokov (1) , Silver- Jahmal Harvey (2) , Bronze- Carlo Paalam (5) , Bronze- Javier Ibanez (4) .

 

	Seedings
1	Abdumalik Khalokov (UZB)	8	Jose Quiles (ESP)
2	Javier Ibanez (BUL)	7	Shudai Harada (JPN)
3	Jahmal Harvey (USA)	6	Saidel Horta (CUB)
4	Charlie Senior (AUS)	5	Dolapo Omole (NGR)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Abdumalik Khalokov (1) .

 

For me Abdumalik Khalokov is one of the best pound for pound boxers in the world and despite featherweight being one of the deepest and toughest divisions, I think he is a reasonably comfortable favourite to win outright here. He should have very little trouble with his opening fight against Nebil Ibrahim (14)  who himself should have no trouble with universality qualifier Wasim Abusal (17) . We will likely get a second Uzbekistan vs Kazakhstan quarter final with 54 kg world champion Makhmud Sabyrkhan (9) . Sabyrkhan doesn’t have the easiest opening fight in Jose Quiles (11)  and has struggled with the size of this weight class compared to 54kg in qualifying. Quiles is natural 60kg boxer who comes down to fight at 57kg, he is a finesse boxer though rather than a power puncher and as such the size mismatch might not matter as much. They haven’t met and are both world champions but it is hard to not pick Khalokov to beat Sabyrkhan in their likely matchup.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Carlo Paalam (5) .

 

Seeds wise, this was by far the most open bracket and could have led to a strange medal but 2 of the top unseeded boxers landed here so we avoided that eventuality. Commonwealth champion Jude Gallagher (7)  and 52kg Olympic silver medallist Carlo Paalam looked set to meet in a quota fight at the 1^st world qualifier only for an shoulder injury to force Paalam to pull out of his preceding fight. They will now meet here in the last 16. Gallagher is a little small for the division but will enjoy a significant height and reach advantage over the strongly built but tiny Carlo Paalam. Paalam looked good at the qualifiers but also has some strange losses in recent months. This is a fifty fifty fight for me but having watched Paalam end Brendan Irvines dreams in Tokyo, my default expectation is that Paalam will do it again to another Irish boxer. I do like Jude Gallagher’s chances though. Fascinating fight to watch anyway. Vasile Ustoroi (13)  was European champ in 2022 and has a very unorthodox counterpunching style, where he leaps and jumps in almost random directions and often get himself caught as a result. He should have too much for Charlie Senior (17)  but is unlikely to beat Paalam or Gallagher though.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Jahmal Harvey (2) .

 

2021 world champion is probably the big American hope for a gold at this tournament but he is going have to work for it if he wants to medal let alone win gold. He opens up with a rematch of the Pan American games semifinal against Luiz Oliveira (3)  who is awkward opponent and difficult to hit. Harvey managed to get the job done at Panam games but this fight is far from a foregone conclusion and Oliveira has won this matchup twice before. Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (12)  took the very last quota for this tournament but is a world bronze medallist and will face world silver medallist Saidel Horta (8)  in the last 16. Horta is good but not as accurate or precise as you would typically expect from Cuban boxers and I would regard this fight as a potential upset. Harvey beat Horta in the panam games final but it was level going into the last round. That said, I think Oliveira is the significantly tougher challenge for Harvey.

 

Bracket 4

 

 

My pick- Javier Ibanez (4) .

This is a tricky one. So the last 16 should be fairly straightforward.  Yilmar Gonzalez  (6)  should be able to land enough to beat the agile Shudai Harada (15)  and despite his impressive 2^nd world qualifier performance former European youth champion Aider Abduraimov (10)  is unlikely to push European champion Javier Ibanez too close. Javier Ibanez and Yilmar Gonzalez are both talented but haven’t quite yet produced the goods at a global championship. They met at the 2021 worlds with Ibanez getting the decision after a clash of heads caused the fight to be stopped midway through the second round. Gonzalez struggles under pressure but from range he is the better boxer. There were a number of contenders I would have been tempted to pick to beat Ibanez had they been drawn together but while I like Gonzalez, this matchup does suit Ibanez.

 

Medal Fights

 

Abdumalik Khalokov (1) vs Carlo Paalam (5) , Jahmal Harvey (3)  vs Javier Ibanez (4) .

 

If both Khalokov and Harvey get this far then it is hard to see them not ending up meeting in the final. Khalokov easily beat Paalam at Asian Games last year and Harvey shouldn’t have too much trouble with Ibanez. I think Khalokov’s counterpunching skills will prevail over Harvey but on paper this is one of if not the fight of the tournament if we get it.

 

Gold- Abdumalik khalokov , Silver- Jahmal Harvey , Bronze- Carlo Paalam , Bronze- Javier Ibanez .

Olympic Predictions (W66kg, W75kg)

 

W66kg

 

Gold- Busenaz Surmeneli (1) , Silver- Yang Liu (3) , Bronze- Grainne Walsh (7) , Bronze- Nien Chin Chen (4) .

 

	Seedings
1	Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR)	8	Janjaem Suwannepheng (THA)
2	Yang Liu (CHN)	7	Oshin Derieuw (BEL)
3	Barbara dos Santos (BRA)	6	Morelle McCane (USA)
4	Marissa Williamson (AUS)	5	Imane Khelif (ALG)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Busenaz Surmeneli (1) .

 

High quality last 32 fight to open up this bracket with Aneta Rygielska (5)  taking on Rosie Eccles (8) . I think this matchup should suit the rangy counterpuncher in Rygielska but I certainly would give Eccles a real shot here. Reigning Olympic and 2022 world champion Busenaz Surmeneli awaits the winner. She beat both on her way to her winning European games last year but Rygielska has beaten her before and as Surmeneli is not the tallest she is often vulnerable to counterpunchers with longer reaches. The other last 16 fight sees the powerful Brigitte Mbabi (17)  meet 2 time world medallist Janjaem Suwannepheng (10) . Suwannepheng should prevail there but from Surmeneli’s perspective the Rygielska or Eccles fight is really where this medal will be decided.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Grainne Walsh (7) .

 

So the quarter final here looks a near certainty to be 2022 63kg world silver medallist Imane Khelif (2)  against Grainne Walsh. Walsh has two handy enough fights against Luca Anna Hamori (18)  and Marissa Williamson (20) , while Imane Khelif should be much too good for Angela Carini (14) . Other than the very controversial manner in which Khelif was denied the 2023 world title, her two biggest fights in her career so far have been losses to Irish boxers. Kellie Harrington  in a Tokyo Olympic quarter final and Amy Broadhurst / in the 63kg world final in 2022 so there would be something almost poetic about this if Grainne Walsh was to become the third different Irish boxer to deny Khelif glory. That said Grainne Walsh is a very different boxer to Harrington’s stylish counterpunching or Amy Broadhurst’s precision and power. Walsh is a much more front foot aggressive boxer which could play into Khelif’s height and reach advantage. While the Grainne Walsh Amy Broadhurst selection controversy had mostly quietened down after their respective second world qualifier performances, they will make a return if a boxer Broadhurst comfortably beat is the one to deny Walsh an Olympic medal. Maybe I’m biased with this pick but I’m backing Walsh.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Nien Chin Chen (4) .

 

This is the most open of these brackets in this division. Former world champion Nien Chin Chen opens up the bracket against the aggressive but very undersized Maria Moronta (15)  where I can only see one winner. That would set up a massive fight with Panamerican champion Barbara dos Santos (6) . Chen and dos Santos are both solid boxers and this fight will come down to how effectively Chen can get on the inside and unleash her power advantage. Morelle McCane (9)  is a solid but flawed boxer although that should still be enough to beat Navbakhor Khamidova (16) . She lost to Dos Santos in the final of Panam games and I feel like Chen would get the better of her as well.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Yang Liu (3) .

 

This final bracket has a clear cut favourite in world champion Yang Liu but should still throw up some interesting fights. Veteran pro and European silver medallist Oshin Derieuw (12)  has an interesting opening test against the universality qualifier but somewhat successful Ivanusa Moreira (19) . The last 32 fight in this bracket sees recent European medallist Jessica Triebelova (13)  match up with 2022 70kg world silver medallist Alcinda dos Santos (11) . To be honest, I quite like Triebelova’s chances there although Dos Santos is more proven. The winner would then face Yang who is far from unbeatable and doesn’t move particularly well. That said she is the class of this particular bracket and should come through.

 

Medal Fights

 

Busenaz Surmeneli (1)  vs Grainne Walsh (7) , Nien Chin Chen (4) vs Yang Liu (3) .

These are two interesting fights, As successful as Surmeneli has been she is far from a shoe in here and whether it is Walsh or Khelif they will both potentially cause her problems. The default expectation though is that she will win. Yang has had the better of the head to head with Chen in recent years but Chen deserved to beat Yang at Asian games last year. Given their prior fights had also gone Yang’s way she will start as marginal favourite. Surmeneli would be favoured to beat Yang though, albeit Yang would have a significant reach advantage.

 

Gold- Busenaz Surmeneli , Silver- Yang Liu , Bronze- Grainne Walsh , Bronze- Nien Chin Chen .

 

W75kg

 

Gold- Tammar Thibeault (1) , Silver- Qian Li (3) , Bronze- Aoife O’Rourke (2) , Bronze- Caitlin Parker (7) .

 

	Seedings
1	Qian Li (CHN)	8	Michael de Trindade (BRA)
2	Aoife O'Rourke (IRL)	7	Atheyna Bylon (PAN)
3	Tammara Thibeault (CAN)	6	Davina Michel (FRA)
4	Khadija El Mardi (MAR)	5	Caitlin Parker (AUS)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Qian Li (3) .

 

I do think this is one of the more predictable divisions but this top bracket should at least throw up some interesting matchups. 2022 70kg world youth champion Sunniva Hofstad (8)  is an impressive but not quite yet fully developed up and coming talent. She will provide a stern opening test for the reigning world champion Lovlina Borgohain (5) . Olympic silver and Asian champion Qian Li has an easier fight against Hergie Bacyadan (15) . Li and Borgohain have met 3 times over the last year with Lovlina’s only win coming in India in the semi-final of worlds last year. Li is the better boxer of the two and I would be surprised if she doesn’t win here.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Caitlin Parker (7) .

 

By far the weakest bracket. Both opening fights should be quite straightforward. Citlalli Ortiz (16)  is better than she looks and picks her shots well but world silver medallist Caitlin Parker should be too skilled for her. I know Khadija El Mardi (9)  is technically a world champion (81+kg) but I have seen this perception of her as one of the favourites here and guys she is far from it. She should be able to overcome the much smaller Chantelle Reid (13)  but there is a medal here for Caitlin Parker if she wants it.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Tammara Thibeault (1) .

 

Canada vs a refugee athlete doesn’t typically stand out as being a great boxing match but this could be one of the fights of the games. Cindy Ngamba (4) has looked in great form since narrowly losing to Aoife O’Rourke at European games last year. Tammara Thibeault is 2022 world champion and for me has been the most impressive W75kg boxer of this cycle. Thibeault will have a significant height and reach advantage but Ngamba has shown an ability to overcome that against other boxers. I would expect Thibeault to win but it may well be close. The other fight here sees experienced Davina Michel (10)  face young Baison Manikon (14)  but Thibeault vs Ngamba will decide the medal here.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick-Aoife O’Rourke (2) .

 

I was quite nervous about Aoife’s chances here before the draw despite her 27-1 record this Olympic cycle but this is a straightforward draw. She has beaten Elzbieta Wojcik (12)  on four straight occasions although Wojcik kept it very close at European games. Atheyna Bylon (6)  should be too good for Valentina Khalzova (11)  on the other side of the bracket. Bylon and O’Rourke met in the final of Strandja in 2022 where O’Rourke ran out a comfortable winner. She tends to make her fights tougher than they need to be though so I’m sure this will be unnecessarily close.

 

Medal Fights

 

Qian Li (3) vs Caitlin Parker (7) , Tammara Thibeault (1)  vs Aoife O’Rourke (2) .

 

Qian Li will be way too good for whoever comes out of the second bracket. The Thibeault O’Rourke fight could be a cracker but while I would love O’Rourke to win I just think Thibeault is the more complete boxer. I think either Thibeault or O’Rourke would beat Li in a potential final.

 

Gold- Tammar Thibeault , Silver- Qian Li , Bronze- Aoife O’Rourke , Bronze- Caitlin Parker .

Boxing Olympic predictions part two (W50kg,W57kg)

 

 

Part one (W54,W60,M63.5,M80) are on the previous page. Seedings in the table at the top of each weightclass. My rankings in brackets.

 

W50kg

 

Gold- Buse Cakiroglu (1) , Silver- Nikhat Zareen (2) , Bronze- Wassila Lkhadiri (9) , Bronze- Ingrit Valencia (8) .

 

	Seedings
1	Wu Yu (CHN)	8	Chuthamat Raksat (THA)
2	Roumaysa Boualam (ALG)	7	Wassila Lkhadiri (FRA)
3	Buse Cakiroglu (TUR)	6	Jennifer Lozano (USA)
4	Caroline de Almeida (BRA)	5	Monique Suraci (AUS)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Nikhat Zareen (2) .

 

Probably the highest quality bracket of any division at these games. This one is ludicrously stacked and had you told me these two last 16 fights were the semi finals and I would have believed you. Anyway poor Maxi Kloetzer (17) , who could not have got a worse draw from her perspective. Twice world champion Nikhat should beat her comfortably. Then we get to the interesting fights Asian champion and 52kg world champion Wu Yu (3)  meets Nikhat (2) who has not quite been in the form that won her world titles in 2022 and 2023. This one is impossible to call but to my eyes Nikhat is marginally the better boxer. The other last 16 sees Asian bronze medallist Chuthamat Raksat (5)  meet recent Strandja champion Sabina Bobokulova (4)  (where she beat Wu and Nikhat). Bobokulova is a bit scrappy and wild for my liking but her recent form is better than the rapid Raksat and I would pick her to win here. To illustrate how close this bracket is both Bobokulova and Raksat have won their most recent fight against Nikhat and lost their most recent matchup with Wu. Having said all that, I personally do think Nikhat is the oh so marginally best boxer of the group and I’m not going to overthink this and will back her despite those recent defeats.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Ingrit Valencia (8) .

 

This second bracket is also very tricky to predict although nowhere near as high quality as the first bracket. Multi time European medallist Giordana Sorrentino (6)  has a tricky enough opener against 2022 Asian medallist Nazym Kyzaibay (14) .  The other last 32 fight sees two of the bigger flyweights multi time world medallist Ingrit Valencia face Yesugen Oyuntsetseg (13) . The winner would then face the smaller but powerful Monique Suraci (12) . Another world medallist and Panam champion Caroline de Almeida (11)  awaits for Sorrentino. De Almeida is solid but her punches are a bit one dimensional. Valencia should really beat Suraci but who she then faces could be crucial. She has had the better of the matchup with Sorrentino over the last couple of years but lost to De Almeida at last year’s Panam games. Both Sorrentino and Valencia have cases to be the pick here and De Almeida shouldn’t be discounted but I am going to pick the veteran Colombian.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Buse Cakiroglu (1) .

 

On paper this should be a cakewalk for 2022 world champion Buse Cakiroglu. Laura Fuertes (15)  is not guaranteed to beat the largely unknown quantity Fatima Herrera (21) . Meanwhile, Pihla Kaivo Oja (18)  should easily beat universality qualifier Margret Tembo (22)  although Tembo is not the easiest of opponents. Jennifer Lozano (20)  is the Panam silver medallist but is very inaccurate and Lozano vs Kaivo oja will not be a high quality fight. None of these boxers will get close to challenging Cakiroglu.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Wassila Lkahdiri (9) .

 

The last bracket is an interesting one. Aira Villegas (10)  should beat Yasmina Mouttaki (19)  first up before what should be a closer fight with African champion Roumaysa Boualam (16) . Boualam will test Villegas but Villegas should win. The big fight here is the other last 16 fight with a rematch of a European games quarter final between Daina Moorehouse (7)  and world bronze medallist Wassila Lkhadiri. Lkhadiri narrowly took that fight on the narrowest of split decisions but Moorehouse is young and still improving. For me Moorehouse is now the better boxer but I just can’t see this fight not being close and if its close the benefit of the doubt will likely go to the home boxer. Villegas will await the winner in what should also be a really close fight. Any of those 3 boxers could medal from this bracket.

 

Medal Fights

 

Nikhat Zareen (2)  vs Ingrit Valencia (8) , Buse Cakiroglu (1)  vs Wassila Lkahdiri (9) .

Regardless of who comes out of brackets 1,2 and 4 these semi-finals should be fairly predictable with Buse Cakiroglu winning and Nikhat/Wu/Bobokulova beating Ingrit Valencia. In this case we end up with a final between Buse Cakiroglu and Nikhat and while Nikhat did win this fight when they met in Strandja in 2022, Cakiroglu is the much safer pick here.

 

Gold- Buse Cakiroglu , Silver- Nikhat Zareen , Bronze- Wassila Lkhadiri , Bronze- Ingrit Valencia .

 

 

W57kg

 

Gold- Lin Yu-ting (1) , Silver- Nesthy Petecio (2) , Bronze- Jucielen Romeu (6) , Bronze- Karina Ibragimova (5) .

 

	Seedings
1	Lin Yu-ting (TPE)	8	Svetlana Staneva (BUL)
2	Tina Rahimi (AUS)	7	Karina Ibragimova (KAZ)
3	Amina Zidani (FRA)	6	Valeria Arboleda (COL)
4	Jucielen Romeu (BRA)	5	Khouloud Hlimi (TUN)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Lin Yu-ting (1) .

 

So 2022 world and current Asian champion Lin Yu-ting starts off this tournament as a very marginal favourite. She will have an easy enough fight to open up against Sitora Turdibekova (19)  assuming Turdibekova can beat Marcelat Sakobi (20) . Given their respective experience, it is remarkable Michaela Walsh (8)  and Svetlana Staneva (4)  have not met before. Staneva is reigning European champion and on current form should be a comfortable winner but Walsh could upset things if she can refind her form. Lin has beaten Staneva at world championships last year so while I would expect a couple of close fights, this bracket should just go to form and that is Lin.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Jucielen Romeu (6) .

 

Panamerican champion Romeu is the comfortable pick of the bunch here although she has not yet gotten over the line at a global championships. She will face the winner of a close fight between Alyssa Mendoza (15)  and counterpuncher Mijgona Samadova (13) . Mendoza has been very inconsistent but has a higher ceiling than Samadova. On the other side of the bracket Esra Yildiz (9)  should be able to comfortably beat Marine Camara (21)  but the agile back foot Khouloud Hlimi (18)  could provide some resistance. I think Romeu would be a solid favourite against Yildiz.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Nesthy Petecio (2) .

 

Irma Testa (3)  could make me look very silly for not picking her to win gold as she is world champion but Nesthy Petecio took this matchup in the Olympic semi-final in Tokyo and is the more accurate punch picker of the two. Petecio has to navigate a reasonably awkward opener against the taller Jaismine (11)  before a huge fight against European champion Amina Zidani (7) . Zidani is not as good as that title suggests and I trust Petecio to produce when it counts. Irma Testa also doesn’t have the easiest of openers against the solid Xu Zichun (10)  but Valeria Arboleda (17)  is unlikely to trouble her. This should all set up a quarter final between Testa and Petecio and without any conviction whatsoever I am going to back Petecio.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Karina Ibragimova (5) .

 

This bracket is on paper by far the most straightforward with two time world medallist Karina Ibragimova the massive favourite to medal here. There should be quite a close last 32 fight between Omailyn Alcala (12)  and Julia Szeremeta (14) . Either should be too good for Tina Rahimi (22) . Ibragimova has to beat the aggressive Ashleyann Lozada (16)  and either Alcala or Szeremeta but is comfortably the pick here

 

Medal Fights

 

Lin Yu-ting (1)  vs Jucielen Romeu (6) , Nesthy Petecio (2)  vs Karina Ibragimova (5) .

 

Two high quality fights here but Lin has beaten Romeu before and this might be the ceiling for Romeu. Petecio vs Ibragimova is an interesting style mismatch but for me Petecio is just comfortably the better boxer and Ibragimova would struggle against Petecio’s power. Lin and Petecio both have wins and losses against each other but I’m going to cheat slightly and pick Lin as she is the safer pick to get this far.

 

Gold- Lin Yu-ting , Silver- Nesthy Petecio , Bronze- Jucielen Romeu , Bronze- Karina Ibragimova . 

Olympic medal predictions (M63.5kg, M80kg)

 

M63.5kg

 

Gold- Sofiane Oumiha (4) , Silver- Bunjong Sinsiri (3) , Bronze- Ruslan Abdullaev (2) , Bronze- Lasha Guruli (4) .

	Seedings
1	Wyatt Sanford (CAN)	8	Miguel Martinez (MEX)
2	Chu-en Lai (TPE)	7	Lasha Gurul
3	Jugurtha Ait Bekka (ALG)	6	Bunjong Sinsiri (THA)
4	Sofiane Oumiha (FRA)	5	Harry Garside (AUS)

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Ruslan Abdullaev (2) .

 

This is one of the toughest division to predict and I have no confidence in my own predictions proving remotely accurate. Remember when I was saying because he was seeded Wyatt Sanford (13)  could medal if he got a good draw, well yeah, not anymore. So first up is a fascinating encounter between Radoslav Rosenov (8)  and world bronze medallist Bakhodur Usmonov (5) . Rosenov is a rangy boxer who took the scenic route qualifying wise but got there eventually. Usmonov is a very solid boxer who is tough to beat and doesn’t have many weaknesses. I would lean towards Usmonov but Rosenov has a real chance. Either should then have too much for the aggressive but a little unrefined Wyatt Sanford. Meanwhile world champion Ruslan Abdullaev has a relatively straigthforward opener against Miguel Martinez (14) . Abdullaev is still quite young and while very good coming forward he has a number of vulnerabilities and I’m sure would have been hoping to avoid the likes of Usmonov until the medal rounds. I think he will come through Usmonov or Rosenov but I’m not that confident in that prediction.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Sofiane Oumiha (1) .

 

Dean Clancy (11)  was always a pretty fringe medal hope amongst the Irish team so in some ways him being the one to get a bad draw is fine. He should beat the aggressive Obada Al Kasbeh (15)  but 60kg world champion and 2016 Olympic champion Sofiane Oumiha dispatched him handily enough at European games last year. Meanwhile the other European games bronze medallist Richard Kovacs (19)  is unlikely to put up much resistance against the 2021 Olympic bronze medal winner and quality counterpunching southpaw Harry Garside (7) . Garside is a little unfortunate with the seeding bracket as I would have been very tempted to pick him to medal against others in this division. That said Oumiha is not unbeatable and tall counterpuncher like Garside could give him serious trouble.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Bunjong Sinsiri (3) .

 

So Bunjong Sinsiri is a tricky one. In 2022 he beat Chinzorig Baatarsukh  (would have been the favourite here if not for a doping violation.) and world silver medallist Dulat Bekbauov  to win the 67kg Asian title and also beat 71kg world champion Aslanbek Shymbergenov  a couple of months prior. He then lost to Baatarsukh at Asian games and was bizarrely dropped by Thailand for the first world qualifier in favour of the good but not elite Somchay Wongsuwan  and then of course qualified after Baatarsukh’s doping suspension happened. He is a little slow but has a ludicrously long reach for the division and despite his impressive wins, at a global level he is completely unproven. He starts off with a tricky test against the small but effective Jesus Cova (12) . Meanwhile 60kg world silver medallist Erislandy Alvarez (6)  should navigate his first two fights against late call up John Ume (20)  and African champ Jugurtha Ait Bekka (18) . That will set up a third quality but tricky to predict quarter final between Alvarez and Sinsiri. Alvarez struggled to qualify and will have a significant size disadvantage here but I don’t yet quite trust Sinsiri to do the business. Sinsiri is tentatively my pick though.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Lasha Guruli (4) .

 

The weakest bracket on paper but will throw up some interesting fights. Oier Ibbareche (16)  came out of relatively nowhere to qualify at the second world qualifier with Spain having picked 2 completely different boxers for the preceding two qualifying tournaments. He meets Mukhammedsabyr Bazarabay Uulu (9) who is the weakest of the male Kazakh boxers but still a quality operator. The winner presumably Mukhammedsabyr would then face  technically the Asian champion in Chu-en Lai (17) . Lai did well to take advantage of a weak draw to qualify but the Kazakh should come through here as well. European silver medallist Lasha Guruli meets Malik Hasanov (10) . Both are taller boxers who like to control fights from range so I suspect this will be quite a standoffish fight. They are both inconsistent but Guruli has the higher ceiling and therefore should be expected to win here. Mukhammedsabyr would provide an interesting and different challenge to Guruli or Hasanov of course but I think Guruli’s ringcraft would allow him to prevail.

 

Medal Fights

 

Projected semis- Ruslan Abdullaev (2)  vs Sofiane Oumiha (1) , Bunjong Sinsiri (3)  vs Lasha Guruli (4) .

 

So I have zero confidence that the four boxers I have classified as favourites will actually all prevail but anyway, Oumiha should be able to pick the still developing Abdullaev off and make the final. Guruli would be safer pick but Sinsiri has beaten boxers who have beaten Guruli so you would have to provisionally back him in the semis as well. Like Garside, Sinsiri could then potentially cause some trouble for Oumiha but you would have to back the Frenchman at home in an Olympic final.

 

Gold- Sofiane Oumiha , Silver- Bunjong Sinsiri , Bronze- Ruslan Abdullaev , Bronze- Lasha Guruli .

 

M80kg

 

Gold- Oleksandr Khyzniak (1)  , Silver- Nurbek Oralbay (2) , Bronze- Arlen Lopez (4) , Bronze- Christian Pinales (7) .

	Seedings
1	Tuohetaebieke Tanglatihan (CHN)	8	Gabrijel Veocic (CRO)
2	Arlen Lopez (CUB)	7	Eumir Marcial (PHI)
3	Oleksandr Khyzniak (UKR)	6	Wanderley Pereira (BRA)
4	Abdelrahma Abdelgawwad (EGY)	5	Callum Peters (AUS)

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Christian Pinales (7) .

 

So most of these predictions line up with my rankings, because ye know my opinions on these boxers haven’t really changed much in the space of a week but I am going to gamble and go against my own rankings here. Christian Pinales is a massive boxer and very skilled but he is a bit lower in my rankings as a result of his inexperience and his lack of standout results. He has a tough opening fight against 2021 75kg world bronze medallist Weerapon Jongjoho (10)  who rode his hometown luck a bit to qualify. The winner gets rewarded with a fight against Asian champion and world silver medallist Tuohetaebieke Tanglatihan (3)  who is a skilled counter puncher but I like Pinales’ chances of causing an upset. The other last 16 fight is the technically sound European silver medallist Gabrijel Veocic (8)  against the front foot 2022 Asian champion Hussein Iashaish (11)  (who is competing in his third straight Olympics, in his third weightclass and uniquely has been moving down weight divisions as he ages). Veocic should win but has struggled against power boxers at points in his young career. Tanglatihan or Pinales would be favoured over Veocic in a quarter final though.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Nurbek Oralbay (2) .

 

So for some reason betting odds love Callum Peters (15)  and believe he is one of the medal favourites here. I don’t see it but what do I know? Reigning world champion Nurbek Oralbay is going to beat him anyway so I guess we will never know how well he could have done with an easier draw. The other fight in this bracket sees Murad Allahverdiyev (14)  facing African champion Abdelrahman Abdelgawwad (17) . Neither boxer would have really been expected to make the quarter finals so both now have a chance. Oralbay should cruise through this bracket.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Oleksandr Khyzniak (1) .

 

Not the easiest draw for European champion Oleksandr Khyzniak. The most front foot pressure fighter of all is looking to avenge his shock last gasp loss in the 2021 75kg Olympic final with gold here. He doesn’t have the easiest of openings with counterpuncher Pylyp Akilov (12) . Akilov is effective on the back foot but just doesn’t quite move well enough to evade Khyzniak for 3 rounds. Khyzniak will then face 75kg world and Panam silver medallist Wanderley Pereira (9) . Pereira has not been in great form of late and is not the type of boxer likely to trouble Khyzniak.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Arlen Lopez (4) .

 

After a couple of on paper quite straightforward brackets, we come to the most unpredictable one with 3 legitimate medal favourite here. First up Salvatore Cavallaro (13)  should beat Kaan Aykutsun (16)  before providing a fairly straightforward opening fight to reigning Olympic champion Arlen Lopez. Lopez has not looked in great shape of late but that was true before Tokyo as well. On the other side of this draw the very promising Turabek Khabibullaev (5)  faces 75kg Olympic medallist Eumir Marcial (6) . Khabibuallaev is more talented but may struggle with the power of Marical. Either would potentially cause Lopez trouble but at least for now, Lopez would start as marginal favourite to beat either in what I’m sure would be a quality fight.

 

Medal Fights

 

Christian Pinales (7)  vs Nurbek Oralbay (2) , Oleksandr Khyzniak (1) vs Arlen Lopez (4) .

 

Nurbek Oralbay would be favoured to beat Pinales but if it is a fight with Tanglatihan it would be a very close affair. They have fought 3 times, 2 going in favour of Oralbay but all were close decisions. Khyzniak vs Lopez should be one of the standout fights of the games, with I’m sure Lopez being a rare boxer willing to attempt to match Khyzniak’s punch output. In the unlikely event my predictions prove accurate that would set up a Khyzniak Oralbay final, Oralbay’s movement and counterpunching is usually the best path to beating Khyzniak but having left gold behind him in Tokyo, I will back Khyzniak to get over the line here.

 

Gold- Oleksandr Khyzniak  , Silver- Nurbek Oralbay (2) , Bronze- Arlen Lopez (4) , Bronze- Christian Pinales (7) .

Boxing Olympic predictions (W54KG, W60kg)

 

So having attempted to predict all the qualifying tournaments, might as well give the Olympics themselves a go. I really wanted to get this done in one part and not have to split this into two but I just ran out of time. So to keep things simple I will post the four weightclasses in action today now and the other 9 tomorrow. I will include a table of the seeds at the top of each weightclass and then my own rankings of these boxers in brackets.

 

I’m just going to keep emphasizing this because I’m sure it will come up again. Seeding draw was randomized and higher seeds are not inherently better than lower seeds. So look I don’t expect to be that accurate. If I push a 60% hit rate on medallists and pick 6 of the eventual champions, I would happy enough.

 

There were two late changes to the entry. As mentioned already in this thread losing European Games quarter finalist Magomed Schachidov replaces Tugrulhan Erdemir (doping suspension) and also disappointingly Pemberton Lele was unable to travel so the universality quota at 63.5kg goes to John Ume who also got a universality quota for Tokyo.

 

W54kg

 

Gold- Pang Chol-mi (1)  , Silver-Lacramioara Perijoc (7) ,Bronze- Stanimira Petrova (2) , Bronze- Preeti (11) .

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Stanimira Petrova (2) .

 

The toughest Women’s division to rank and also to predict and first up is the toughest bracket within it to project. Hsiao Wen Huang (6)  is world champion and an Olympic medallist but is probably the third most likely boxer to medal here. She has an easy opening fight against Bojana Gojkovic (18)  who she beat to qualify at the second world qualifier. She faces a huge fight against European champion Stanimira Petrova. On current form you have to back Petrova but it will be close. The other last 16 fight sees Asian silver medallist Yuan Chang (5)  has a tricky opener against the fast and agile Jennifer Lehane (12)  which is a fight I think has upset potential. Chang will be hopeful that Huang is the boxer she would then face in a quarter final as she has beaten her and lost to Petrova albeit the Petrova loss was in Bulgaria and the win over Huang was in China. I think I would back either Petrova or Huang though over Chang.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Pang Chol-mi (1) .

 

Pang Chol-mi was world champion in 2018 and Asian champion last year but still comes into this tournament somewhat unknown. She is nominally my highest ranked boxer but that is more out of a distrust of every other contender than a great belief in Pang. She has a Asian games semi final rematch with Nigina Uktamova (16)  in her opening fight. Meanwhile Sara Cirkovic (3)  meets world bronze medallist Jutamas Jitpong (9)  in the one of the better last 32 fights. Cirkovic has developed rapidly to be one of the favourites here having being world youth champion in 2022, European under 22 champion last year and European senior champion and of course Olympic qualifier this season. While Jitpong is decent mover, Cirkovic should be too strong for her. Cirkovic then has an easier fight against counterpuncher Widad Bertal (21)  to set up a fight with Pang which would probably go under the radar a bit but could decide the gold medal winner. I am very tempted to pick Cirkovic but I will trust Pang’s experience.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Lacramioara Perijoc (7) .

 

The most open of these brackets with a number of interesting fights. Charley Davison (4)  against 2022 world champion Hatice Akbas should be fascinating. Akbas has not managed to back up that home world championships win but she is a quality and difficult to beat counterpuncher. Davison has been in good form of late winning the US boxing invitational in April but this is a crucial fight for the comparably small British squad’s medal hopes. Tiana Echegaray (20)  waits to be beaten by the winner of the Akbas vs Davison in the last 16. World bronze medallist Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (15)  faces Sirine Charaabi (14)  in what should be an even fight with the winner being rewarded with a fight against the aggressive 2022 world silver medallist Lacramioara Perijoc. Perijoc has beaten Akbas on multiple occasions but a matchup with Davison would be interesting and likely would come down to Davison’s ability to maintain the distance and not allow Perijoc on the inside. Perijoc has won against opponents like Davison before so I would tentatively back her.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Preeti (11) .

 

So Yeni Arias (13)  is the reigning world silver medallist but she is also just not that good and yet the draw has been kind enough to give her a real shot here. First up quality young boxer Preeti meets Thi Kim Anh Vo (17)  in a fight she should win fairly comfortably. The winner then faces Arias and while Arias has the pedigree, as is clear from my rankings I would back Preeti to win here. Meanwhile the tall and rangy Im Aeji (10)  has a relatively straightforward last 16 fight against Tatiana de Jesus (19)  before what could be a fascinating fight with Preeti or Arias of course. I’m not quite sure how we got here but given Im has never managed to produce it when it counts somehow I’m picking Preeti to win a medal.

 

Medal Fights

 

Stanimira Petrova (2)  vs Pang Chol-mi (1) , Lacramioara Perijoc (7) vs Preeti (11) .

 

So the winner of the third bracket in this case Perijoc should beat whoever comes out of the bottom bracket. Petrova and Pang both have tough paths to medal but the winner of that semi final likely decides to gold medal. To be honest, I hae no idea what will happen in this division but I guess I’m picking Pang to beat Perijoc in the final.

 

Gold- Pang Chol-mi  , Silver-Lacramioara Perijoc ,Bronze- Stanimira Petrova , Bronze- Preeti .

 

W60kg

 

Gold- Kellie Harrington (1) , Silver- Wenlu Yang (4) , Bronze- Beatriz Ferreira (2) , Bronze- Oh Yeon-ji (8) .

 

 

	Seedings
1	Yang Wenlu (CHN)	8	Natalia Shadrina (SRB)
2	Beatriz Ferreira (BRA)	7	Won Ung-yong (PRK)
3	Kellie Harrington (IRL)	6	Angie Valdez (COL)
4	Cynthia Ogunsemilore (NGR)	5	Tyla McDonald (AUS)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Wenlu Yang (4) .

 

World bronze medallist and Asian champion got about as good a draw as she could have realistically hoped for with a straightforward opener against Thi Linh Ha (18)  who first will beat Feofaaki Epenisa (22) . Meanwhile newly crowned European champion Natalia Shadrina (7)  also has a straightforward opener against Hadjila Khelif (21) . 34 year old Shadrina has enjoyed somewhat of a late career peak with her performances recently but did lose to Yang at Strandja earlier this year but that will at least be an interesting matchup.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Oh Yeon-ji (8) .

 

So this bracket is wide open. Former Asian champion Oh Yeonji had not been in great form of late but stormed back into shape beating Amy Broadhurst  (that flag still looks wrong) at the final qualifier. She is somewhat more awkward than good but that might be enough to medal here. She beat her opening round opponent Wu Shih Yi (10)  on her way to winning the Asian championships in 2022 and should repeat the feat here. She then faces African champion and experienced pro Cynthia Ogunsemilore (17) . On the other side of the bracket Agnes Alexiusson (14)  should come through fights against Maria Palacios (19)  and Tyla McDonald (20) . Alexiusson and Oh met all the way back in 2018 where Oh won to take a world medal and while a lot of time has passed, I would expect to see the same outcome here.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Kellie Harrington (1) .

 

Kellie Harrington has never quite found her form this Olympic cycle despite it taking until this year’s Europeans for her to lose a fight. Typically though she produces her best when it matters most although she will need it just to medal here. She opens her account against the winner of Alessia Mesiano (13)  and Gizem Ozer (15) . In the other last 32 fight former world medallist Donjeta Sadiku (9)  should beat Thananya Somnuek (16)  but will likely struggle against world silver medallist Angie Valdez (3) . Valdez is a quality and powerful boxer and would likely have medalled in other brackets but will provide a very stern test for Kellie Harrington.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Beatriz Ferreira (2) .

 

There is a fair bit of quality in the bottom half of this draw. 2016 champion Estelle Mossely (6)  should beat Jajaira Gonzalez (12)  to set up an interesting fight with 2-time world champion Beatriz Ferreira. Asian silver medallist Won Ungyong (5)  is a complete unknown beyond that result and will be somewhat tested early by former 63kg world medallist Chelsey Heijnen (11)  before herself likely facing Ferreira. I would be surprised if Ferreira didn’t come through those 2 fights as her record at major championships is remarkably consistent but it isn’t the easiest path.

 

Medal Fights

 

Wenlu Yang (4)  vs Oh Yeonji (8) , Kellie Harrington (1)  vs Beatriz Ferreira (2) .

 

So Wenlu Yang starts as favourite to beat Oh Yeonji but that should be a close enough fight. The big fight though is the Tokyo Olympic final rematch between Kellie Harrington and Beatriz Ferreira. Despite Ferreira having acquired more silverware this Olympic cycle, Harrington should still be favoured here and her ability to pick Ferreira off as she comes forward was the deciding factor in Tokyo and very well could be the deciding factor again. While Wenlu Yang actually beat Harrington in the 64kg world final back in 2016, given how their respective careers have gone since I would be surprised if the winner of the Harrington Ferreira semi didn’t take the gold medal.

 

Gold- Kellie Harrington , Silver- Wenlu Yang , Bronze- Beatriz Ferreira , Bronze- Oh Yeon-ji .

Whitlock 15.166 and Nedoroscik 15.200 will both be safely through.

5 hours ago, intoronto said:

@OgremanDo you mean the eights or the whole rowing team with this statement "Canada’s squad have also been struggling badly of late"

Canada's rowing team as a whole, sorry if that was a bit ambigous.

 

 

1 hour ago, heywoodu said:

@Ogreman I dare say your prediction of not putting Angola up there for the M1x medals was accurate

Yeah, your just going to have to believe me that he was supposed to be 33rd in my rankings.

So I wanted to expand on my rankings a bit. Not my best work (and certainly not one my old English teacher would have proud of) but hopefully there is some useful shit somewhere in here

 

Women’s Singles

 

Everytime I look at this boatclass my heart just breaks for Sanita Puspure  and that FOQR race.

Anyway, this podium at least seems fairly set. Florijn  hasn’t lost all cycle and really the intrigue here is who wins the battle for silver between Emma Twigg  and Tara Rigney . Things go wrong in the singles though so and the battle behind is fierce. Kara Kohler  was fourth last year and seems the safest pick but hasn’t had the form this season missing the A final at world cup ii. Tatsiana Klimovich  has looked fairly impressive this season being the closest to the top 3 at world cup ii and Jovana Arsic  won Europeans and accordingly for me both rank in the top 6. You can make strong A final cases for Alexandra Foester , Magdalena Lobnig , Virginia Diaz Rivas  and even just about Aurelia Maxima Janzen  but results have been all over the place this season.

 

Men’s Singles

 

So Simon van Dorp  got the better of Oliie Zeidler  at world cup ii having lost to him at the first world cup but I would still have to back Ollie as favourite here. Tom Mackintosh  is a solid favourite for the podium as well. Ntouskos  is never the most consistent but second at Europeans was encouraging, world cup ii, not so much. Yaheni Zalaty  has impressed this season while Sverri Nielsen  and Damir Martin  as always have looked solid and safe bets for the A final. It will be interesting to see how Mihai Chiruta  and Jacob Plihal  go after an almighty battle to qualify from FOQR. Ryuta Arakawa  had a rough time of things at world cup iii and looks unlikely to improve or even replicate his 8th place from last year. Kristian Vasilev , Gedrius Beliauskas  and Tim Brys would all be disappointed to miss the semis but have a battle on their hands to make it that far.

 

Women’s Pair

 

In theory the most predictable of all these boat classes with Netherlands, Australia, Romania and Ireland fairly locked into the top four and in that order. That said it is rare than the script goes that smoothly and Netherlands will be only boat happy with the current status quo. Denmark had a disastrous world champs last year but have looked impressive this year winning FOQR relatively comfortably and bronzes at world cups i and iii. Greece are European silver medallists and if anyone breaks into the top four then it is probably them. The USA have changed and in theory weakened their combination here and but still sit at the top of the next tier albeit in what could be a very close battle for finishing positions in the B final. Lithuania haven’t raced this year as a combination since their 8^th place finish last year and there is nothing between Czechia, Spain, New Zealdand and GB’s new combination. Chile are the interesting ones having finished a surprise 5^th at worlds last year, they have largely struggled this year though. A repeat of their A final last year is tough to see but it would be disappointing if they don’t at least finish in the middle of the B final.

 

Men’s Pair

 

So for the third straight year this British combination starts off as favourites in this event. Both of the previous year they have ultimately been beaten, by Romania in 2022 and the Swiss last year. Romania have changed their pair since a disappointing fourth last year and took second at Europeans ahead of the Swiss who have been consistently on the podium this year but haven’t quite shown the form that led them to the world title last year. The Sinkovic’s gamble to move back into the pair does not appeared to have worked although we don’t know where they would be had they stayed in the double. If anything this ranking is generation to them. The Spanish only finished in the B final at Europeans but sprinted through the Swiss to take silver at world cup ii. Ireland are a strange one as they developed ahead of schedule to win bronze at the world championships last year but have had a very disrupted season, with their only race together being a disappointing 7^th at world cup i after an injury and illness affected build up. If they can regain their form though, they could jump back into medal contention in a hurry. South Africa were surprise finalists last year but potentially look capable of backing up that performance having nearly taken a medal at world cup iii. There is very little between the USA, New Zealand, Italy and Australia with all four having performances that hint at being capable of contending for spots in the A final but they also kind of have to be ranked down here. This is a rare boat class where I have the 2 FOQR boats ranked last. Lithuania have some pedigree over the last couple of years but the Germans came out of nowhere to upset the much more established combinations from Denmark and the Netherlands to qualify.

  

Women’s Double

 

So a boat class that wasn’t all that interesting coming into the season, all of a sudden is incredibly tough to predict. Romania lost for the first time since 2019 at Europeans although you would have to back them to be back in prime form for the Olympics. Lithuania have pushed them the closest over the last couple of years although they were pipped by Norway at Europeans and then finished towards the back of the B final at world cup ii so it’s very hard to know what Lithuania will show up. The US are bronze medallists from last year and look in reasonable shape to retain that status after narrowly coming through Australia and Norway to win the aforementioned second world cup. Australia and Norway have both flown up the rankings since moving Harriet Hudson and Inger Seim Kavlie respectively into this boat with Australia narrowly getting the better of the head to head at world cup ii and iii although Norway’s win at Europeans was the most impressive of the lot. Ireland’s young double came very close to medalling last year and come into this regatta a little under the radar after slipping in A finals to fifth at Europeans and fourth world cup ii. Having said that they had beaten Australia and Norway in the heats/semis at world cup ii and I would quietly fancy their chances of a medal here. New Zealand were fifth last year and performed significantly better at worlds than their prior form last year so shouldn’t be counted out of the medal picture. It’s very close beyond that with France having brought Elodie Scaramozzino into the boat after their A final combination from last year failed to fire earlier in the season. The other six boats could really all conceivably finish in any order and there have only been a second or two between them all season. China’s A final appearance at world cup ii and Czechia fourth place at Europeans means they rank slightly higher than Netherlands, Italy and GB.

 

Men’s Double

 

The Dutch are significant favourites but it is a very tough field to judge beyond that. Romania’s new combination of Cornea and Enache came out of their quad last year and won Europeans comfortably but actually lost in the heats there to Germany. Ireland won bronze last year and bronze this year at world cup i behind the Dutch and Italy although Italy beat Ireland early last season as well. Ireland then beat Germany and New Zealand at world cup iii. Speaking of Italy, they have moved Luca Rambaldi into there quad in place of Nicolo Carucci so despite their silver at world cup i and ii they probably are fielding a slightly weaker combination. Spain and Germany were within half a second of each other at Europeans and both have had successful medal winning seasons so far. France’s global champions in 22 and 23 have struggled this year with 5ths at world cups ii and iii. USA comfortably took FOQR and could push on towards an A final. Serbia’s combination with Pimenov in the double instead of the single has only raced FOQR but only narrowly beat an Australian boat who then struggled at world cup iii. Norway have thrown this double together with Kjetil Borch joining Martin Helseth, having moved their original double into a quad. Borch was just starting to find his form at FOQR so there is hope for this boat. China came 6^th in this boat class last year but with Sulitan Adilijiang now joining Zhiyu Lu in the boat in place of Zhang Liang, it’s hard to see this boat being successful. They both were part of the quad that came 9^th at FOQR. The Loncaric twins did really well to qualify the pair but have been forced into this boat by the wishes of the Sinkovic brothers and have unsurprisingly struggled.

 

Women’s Lightweight Double

 

This GB double are obviously the biggest favourites in any boat class at this regatta. New Zealand have impressed this season with silver at world cup ii and winning world cup iii. The US have won silver the last couple of years but struggled a bit at world cup ii. Romania have put their 2018 world champion combination back together and did win Europeans but no France/ Ireland and Emily Craig was missing from the British boat. France did well to win FOQR but have struggled at recent world champs compared with how they performed during the season. Ireland haven’t had a great season but part of me still believes they have a medal ceiling. Greece are good and young so could surprise and make the A final. Canada are solid but I wanted to rank them lower here. China didn’t have a great world cup ii and are unlikely to replicate their A final performance from last year. Poland should be competitive despite qualifying via the continental qualifiers. (This wasn’t exactly the smoothest written paragraph in the world, aye?)

 

Men’s Lightweight Double

 

So the most interesting race this year was world cup ii where the 5 times consecutive global champions Ireland were pushed narrowly into third by Switzerland and Italy. While this was an encouraging results for both the Swiss and Italians it should be noted that Ireland have typically significantly extended their margin of victory between there mid-season form and world championships over the last few years so are still significant favourites to win here. Although both Switzerland and Italy look like they will be tough to dislodge off the podium. France are an interesting one as they actually beat Ireland in a photo finish at world cup iii last year and then had a disastrous world championships. They recovered to narrowly win FOQR over the Greeks but their only other race this season was winning world cup iii where the only other Olympic boat in the field was Mexico. Norway have made multiple podiums this season and should really make it back to the A final. Ukraine won the European qualifying regatta in their only race of the season but look to have recovered from their bad form last year after winning world bronze in 2022. Spain, Czechia and Belgium have all beaten each other this year and will feel a bit hard done by to not be ranked in the top 6. 9^th is especially harsh on Czechia as they have made the last 3 global finals but its hard to rank them higher based off this year’s formguide. Greece stuck right with France at FOQR but having faded badly at world championships last year, I’m not falling for them again. Mexico had a very impressive seventh last year but based off this year alone just making the B final would be positive.

 

Women’s Four

 

GB take the favourites tag with wins over Romania at Europeans and Netherlands at world cup i and ii. Netherlands are reigning world champions though and were middle of the pack during the world cup season last year before coming through to win at worlds against a slightly different British crew so the Dutch could repeat that feat. That fact also gives them the benefit of the doubt over Romania who were a second closer to the Brits at Europeans than the Dutch were at world cup ii although inferring anything from that kind of margin is probably silly. On paper medals look fairly safe with new American and New Zealand combinations at least not yet showing the form to dislodge any of the three medallists from last year. On paper the US combination looks weaker than their fourth place last year but bronze at world cup ii sets them up to repeat that particular result. The Kiwis were 7^th last year but bring in former world and Olympic champion Kerri Williams and won world cup iii albeit against lesser competition.

Australia have shifted the focus to their eight and this boat is weaker as a consequence and they were way off the pace at world cup ii but edged out the Danes at world cup iii. The Irish combination has been narrowly ahead of the Danes at world cup I and FOQR but 7-9^th is a three way toss-up. All 3 though will hope they can topple China and sneak into an A final.

 

Men’s Four

 

Gb dominated this Olympic cycle but haven’t had a great season losing world cup i to Italy and then getting well beaten by last year’s silver and bronze medallists USA and New Zealand at world cup ii. Australia’s significantly changed combination were also close behind the Brits at world cup ii and marginally beat them in the heats. Italy qualified well at FOQR and having beaten the Dutch and the French earlier in the season but may have had an earlier peak so it is far from guaranteed they make the A final. Netherlands after finishing fourth last season have largely struggled. Romania have made one change to their Europeans crew with Sergiu Bejan coming in for Mugurel Semciuc. Bejan himself and Stefan Berariu are down to double up. The Swiss do rank last but are not that far behind the field here.

 

Women’s Quad

 

Potentially a very close race, GB’s world champions recovered from 4^th at world cup I to win both Europeans and world cup ii. The Dutch who only managed second at world cup i came second at world cup ii. China having lost their world title last year are marginal favourites for bronze. There is nothing between the boats ranked 4-7. Ukraine had a spectacular start to the year with 1^st at world cup i and second at Europeans but then lost to the US at FOQR. The US had changed their combination from the one that finished 11^th last year and the Canadians and French who missed at FOQR were competitive boats as well so I think putting the two FOQR qualifiers 4^th and 5^th is reasonable. Germany have edged out the Swiss at every regatta so far this year. Romania and Australia were both surprise qualifiers last year, Romania keep changing their combination so could surprise and repeat their A final appearance while Australia have taken Harriet Hudson out of this boat to prioritize a medal calibre double and as such have not been competitive this season.

 

Men’s Quad

 

On paper one of the most straightforward and likely boat classes to go to form. The Dutch are clear cut favourite here with the battle for silver being fascinating between Poland and Italy. Italy took Europeans but then Poland flipped that result at world cup ii, although Italy have since added powerhouse Luca Rambaldi to this boat. The Brits despite adding Graeme Thomes to last year’s boat seem stuck in fourth although not far behind. Switzerland and Germany have both beaten each other multiple times this season but Switzerland seem more reliable  and did medal at Europeans beating the Brits. Romania changed their 7^th place combination from last year for Europeans and then changed it again and are racing a new combination here so could cause an upset and make the A final. Norway’s FOQR tactic of combining 2 doubles they couldn’t decide selection between in many ways worked but they are unlikely to actually end up with a better result than where they would have roughly finished in the double but four athletes is better than two and they still have a double, just a less competitive one. Estonia and their multiple 40+ year olds did well to qualify but will likely finish last.

 

Women’s eight

 

Romania’s crew is almost entirely doubling up despite their strange initial entry list but regardless are the clear cut favourites here.

Confusingly the 2 other medallists from last year  USA and Australia both in theory strengthened their boats for this season but then lost to 4/5^th last year Canada and GBR at world cup ii although they did come first and second in the prelim race. Last year followed a somewhat similar pattern though with Canada and Gb having better form in season but the missing the medals at world championships. This is just a question of do you put more stock into last year’s worlds or world cup ii as a form guide. Canada’s squad have also been struggling badly of late which I think could be justification to fade them a little here. I feel a little sorry for them so let’s put them third. I think the US will take second but third is a toss-up between Canada, GB and Australia. Italy aren’t too far behind and did beat GB at world cup i.

 

Men’s eight

 

GB have been pushed this season and were beaten by the USA in the prelim race at world cup ii. The USA recovered from 6^th last year to look very impressive but their form was probably ahead of where the other boats were given they had to go to FOQR so the Dutch remain favourites for silver for me. The Australians were bronze medallists and rejigged their squad a bit in a move that was supposed to strengthen their eight but doesn’t appear to have. Romania were 2 seconds behind the Brits at Europeans and are well in medal contention here. Germany have been off the pace of the best crews all season apart from one spectacular European finals performance. Italy however have an outside chance at  pushing Germany out of the A final and beat them in the rep at the first world cup before being beaten in the final.

 

Projected Medal Table

 

	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Medals	Total Contenders (top 6)
Great Britain	5	0	1	6	8
Netherlands	4	4	0	8	8
Romania	2	1	3	6	8
USA	1	1	3	5	8
Ireland	1	1	0	2	6
Germany	1	0	0	1	5
New Zealand	0	2	2	4	5
Australia	0	2	0	2	6
Switzerland	0	1	1	2	3
Poland	0	1	0	1	1
Lithuania	0	1	0	1	1
Italy	0	0	2	2	5
Canada	0	0	1	1	2
China	0	0	1	1	2
Greece	0	0	0	0	2
Neutral athletes	0	0	0	0	2
Denmark	0	0	0	0	2
Spain	0	0	0	0	2
Norway	0	0	0	0	2
France	0	0	0	0	2
Ukraine	0	0	0	0	2
Croatia	0	0	0	0	1
Serbia	0	0	0	0	1

 

So as expected top spot is a fascinating battle between the Brits and the Dutch with the Romanians as comfortable favourites for third. The USA, Ireland and New Zealand could have an interesting battle for the rest of the top 5 depending on how good or bad their regattas go. As expected projections are not so good for traditional powerhouses Australia, Italy and Canada albeit that Australia and Italy do have the ceiling to overperform.

Olympics form guide/ projections

 

M1X

W1X

M2-

W2-

M2X

W2X

LM2X

LW2X

M4-

W4-

M4X

W4X

M8+

W8+

1

GER

NED

GBR

NED

NED

ROU

IRL

GBR

USA

GBR

NED

GBR

GBR

ROU

2

NED

AUS

ROU

AUS

IRL

LTU

SUI

NZL

NZL

NED

POL

NED

NED

USA

3

NZL

NZL

SUI

ROU

ROU

USA

ITA

USA

GBR

ROU

ITA

CHN

USA

CAN

4

GRE

USA

CRO

IRL

ESP

AUS

FRA

ROU

AUS

USA

GBR

USA

ROU

AUS

5

AIN

AIN

ESP

DEN

GER

NOR

NOR

CAN

ITA

NZL

SUI

UKR

AUS

GBR

6

DEN

SRB

IRL

GRE

ITA

IRL

UKR

IRL

FRA

CHN

GER

GER

GER

ITA

7

CRO

GER

RSA

USA

NZL

NZL

ESP

FRA

NED

IRL

ROU

SUI

ITA

DEN

8

ROU

AUT

USA

LTU

FRA

FRA

GRE

GRE

ROU

AUS

NOR

ROU

9

USA

ESP

NZL

CZE

USA

CHN

CZE

CHN

SUI

DEN

EST

AUS

10

JPN

SUI

ITA

ESP

SRB

CZE

BEL

POL

11

BUL

LTU

AUS

NZL

NOR

NED

MEX

AUT

12

LTU

BUL

LTU

CHI

CHN

ITA

JPN

TUN

13

BEL

UZB

GER

GBR

CRO

GBR

UZB

JPN

14

BRA

AZE

CHI

IRI

15

SLO

RSA

ARG

PER

16

HUN

SLO

EGY

ARG

17

MON

MEX

18

URU

TUR

19

EGY

BRA

20

TUN

PAR

21

CUB

ALG

22

BER

IRI

23

IND

PER

24

PAR

UGA

25

KAZ

PHI

26

ALG

VIE

27

INA

CUB

28

ZIM

TOG

29

HKG

NCA

30

LBA

SGP

31

THA

MAR

32

SUD

KUW

33

ANG

 

So I have done similar exercises to this before. It is not quite a pure form guide but its not quite predictions either, somewhere in between. Proved quite accurate at worlds last year but then not so hot for FOQR so we will see. I know its quite late as well and would have been more useful earlier this week but anyway, we got there. I didn't spend as much time as I would have liked on these so I don't think they will be as accurate as they were for worlds last year.

Anyway final thoughts on our individual medal chances, Still going to use favourites, contenders and outside chances but I think I will split contenders into two tiers just to add a bit more nuance. Most of my thoughts haven’t really changed (Are on page 16 of the qualification tracker, for my own reference more than anything else).

 

Athletics

 

Favourites

 

Rhasidat Adeleke- So third fastest in the field this year but that’s not including Marileidy Paulino. Nikisha Pryce obviously seems to be in tremendous form but I would be skeptical of her ability to produce a mid-48 run in an Olympic final. Adeleke before last year had never failed to run her best time at a major championships so look it will be close but my take at this point is she wins silver behind Paulino with Kaczmarek in bronze.

 

Mixed 4*400- I don’t understand the talk of Adeleke skipping this at all, why would you give up a medal chance for possibly an ever so slightly better chance at winning a different medal. I mentioned this before but the time of 3:09.9 we ran at Europeans has never failed to medal at a major championships and O’Donnell, Barr and Adeleke in theory should all be in better form. We start as comfortable favourites for bronze and could push the Dutch for silver. I’m sure the likes of Italy, the Brits and Belgium won’t be too far behind but we are comfortable medal favourites here and have the margin for error needed to potentially rest Adeleke for the heats if need be although I would tempted to race her and tell her to take it easy.

 

Good Contenders

 

W4*400- So at Europeans we ran 3:24.8 with no Adeleke which is basically what we need to do to make the Olympic final and 3:22.7 with a very tired Adeleke which probably would leave us just outside the medals but is not far off at all, probably sub 3:22 needed to medal. Now Mawdlsey, Becker and Phil Healy have all had to have been in form from the jump this season so I would be a bit concerned that particularly Mawdsley who could easily race five times before the heats in this event if she makes the semis individually via the rep. There are reasons to be sceptical here but like it absolutely is a medal chance.

 

Not so good Contenders

 

Ciara Mageean- form doesn’t seem to be there. She has said in interviews that she isn’t sure why it isn’t there and it was only a couple of months ago that she won Europeans so we shouldn’t be too pessimistic here. I haven’t given up yet but in the past when she has had good major champs she has had very good buildups to those championships as well.

 

 

Expectations Athletics-  Hopefully Sarah Healy and maybe one other athlete can make a final. Coscoran, O’Sullivan or Lavin probably our best hopes there. While I am predicting we will win 2, any medal is a good result, 5/6 finals appearances would be satisfactory and 10 or so top 15s should probably be in and around the expectation for this team.

 

 

Badminton- Realistically just a couple of wins for Nhat.

 

Boxing

 

This will all change when the draw happens but.

 

Favourites

 

Kellie Harrington- seeding draw went badly with a likely quarter final fight against world silver medallist Angie Valdez and a potential Tokyo Olympic final rematch to come in the semis if she gets there. Kellie has basically never failed to produce when it counts so despite never looking in great shape during this Olympic cycle I do think she is the favourite for gold.

 

Aoife O’Rourke- Avoid another fight with Cindy Ngamba and this should be quite a safe bronze medal but I don’t see her beating Tammara Thibeault in a semi-final. This is either a disaster, bronze or gold. Those for me are the 3 scenarios here.

 

Contenders

 

Grainne Walsh - So 66kg is a weird bracket, there aren’t any easy draws but only Busenaz Surmeneli properly scares me and even she is beatable. Grainne Walsh looked convincing at the second world qualifier and I’m a lot higher than I was originally on her chances but I think when it comes down to it she will come up short against a counterpuncher.

 

Jude Gallagher- 50% chance of drawing Jahmal Harvey or Abdumalik Khalokov which would make things tough. While this is a tough division, there is the potential for a very straightforward draw regardless of whether he gets one or not he is in with a chance.

 

Daina Moorehouse-  Seeding is all over the place so that means potential for extremely good or bad draws. Moorehouse will give anyone a tough fight but her narrow losses at the first two qualifiers are probably how this is destined to go

 

Aidan Walsh- I think he is going to medal again. There just isn’t a single boxer in this draw that I wouldn’t go in to a fight against liking Aidan’s chances. This division is full of counterpunchers who aren’t as good at counterpunching as Aidan is. That said there are only 4/5 potential opponents I wouldn’t at least be nervous against and he will make it so nerve-wracking to watch.

 

Jack Marley- Jack had a good seeding draw and is in this tier as a result but the unseeded boxers are as good as the seeded ones so even in the best case scenario it would still be at least one tough fight but he has a genuine chance.

 

Not so good contenders-

 

Michaela Walsh- I’ve come around a bit on Michaela Walsh as when I was doing my rankings I generally didn’t read too much into athletes who qualified early and then had some strange losses to start 2024. There isn’t a potential easy draw here and as such I still don’t think she has a great path to medal here but I think she will get closer than I thought she would a month or two ago.

 

Outside chances

 

Dean Clancy, Jennifer Lehane- Clancy is fine, he is a decent boxer just hasn’t yet shown the ceiling to medal here. There is one easier seeding bracket though so there is at least the potential for a lucky draw. Women’s bantamweight is wide open so Lehane has a chance like. She is a tier below the big contenders but you never know.

 

Boxing expectations- For me 3 medals, Harrington, O’Rourke and 1 other provisionally  Aidan Walsh. The main goal for me for the squad is just win more fights more fights we are underdogs in than lose fights in which we are favourites which I will measure using my rankings. Obviously it is boxing so can be incredibly volatile, could be glorious and win 4/5 or we could win 0/1 but the expectation is 3.

 

 

Canoe-slalom

 

Hopefully Liam Jegou or Noel Hendrick can make a final and let see how the kayak cross goes. Don’t really have many expectations here but excited to watch it.

 

Cycling

 

Contenders- Lara Gillespie in the omnium, interesting that she is racing the madison as it might have made sense for us to try and have her as fresh as possible for the omnium, look it will be tough but it is nice chance to have in the back pocket for the last day of the games to keep us dreaming all the way through whether we are having a good games or a bad one.

 

Not so good contenders- Ben Healy was sick in the last week of the Tour so it is very hard to know what kind of legs he will show up with. If he has the legs he had in the first 2 weeks of the tour then I genuinely think he will at worst be in the shake up at the end, although his lack of a sprint could cost him but impossible to know how good his legs will be now.

 

Cycling expectations- guaranteed a top 10 in the team pursuit, making the top 8 would be a great result, hopefully we at least finish the madison this time and given the TT field isn’t that strong maybe a top 15 for Ryan Mulllen there is on the cards.

 

 

Diving- Hopefully make a semifinal, at least get close in one of the 2 events.

 

Equestrian

 

Favourites

 

Team jumping- This is the one that I am confused that we aren’t more excited about. We are top of the league of nations, we won the nations cup in Aachen. I’m not sure what happened with Darragh Kenny’s top horse (Amsterdam 27) and Bertram Allen withdrawing from reserve as well stretches us a bit but we have possibly the best depth in the world. It is very easy for showjumping to go wrong and the Swedes, French, Dutch, Belgians, Americans etc will be strong as well but we are the form team here.

 

Not so good contenders-

 

Team eventing- I haven’t a good preview of this. I just want to know what the scores are expected to look like after dressage. Dressage is the key here, if we are in touch at that point, we have every chance but I just don’t know if we will be or not. Excited to find out.

Individual jumping- Cian O’Connor (Maurice), Daniel Coyle  (Legacy), Shane Sweetnam (James Kaan Cruz)- It is always tough but having 3 potentially in the mix increases our odds significantly.

 

Outside chances

 

Individual eventing- Austin O’Connor? As above with the team event, Be in touch after dressage and we have a chance.

 

Equestrian expectations- A medal and 4/5 top tens.

 

Field Hockey- Win a game, just one and it is a good tournament.

 

Golf

 

Contenders

 

Rory McIlroy- Can say the US open disappointment didn’t affect him as much as he wants, that was a devastating loss. It would quite Rory to win here though.

Shane Lowry- Good but frustrating open. Is clearly in form.

Leona Maguire- Not in great form but is good enough.

 

Outside chances

 

Stephanie Meadow- could easily be in contention

 

Golf expectations- Honestly we should expect a medal here but it is golf, 3 in the mix for me is the expectation. Hopefully it yields a medal but.

 

 

Gymnastics-

 

Rhys McClenaghan- Ok this is one I disagree with the skepticism about. Rhys McClenaghan is much more experienced than he was in Tokyo and seems to be over the falls that plagued him in 2021/2022. He has been here before and I know its pommel but most of the time gymnastics events go to form. Will need a near perfect routine to beat Whitlock but this is a safe medal.

 

Gymnastics expectations- Silver medal

 

 

Rowing

 

Currently in the middle of rankings all of the boats for this regatta so my thoughts are somewhat incomplete.

 

Favourites

 

LM2x- Don’t be fooled by the world cup ii result. They are comfortable favourites.

 

M2x- Dutch are comfortable favourites, Romania, Italy and us in some order behind although plenty of other potential protagonists with New Zealand, France, Germany etc. I think we win bronze here.

 

Contenders

 

W2- - Still think they are doomed to a fourth place finish behind the Netherlands, Australia and Romania.

 

W2x- Haven’t had a great season and probably come in ranked 5^th/6^th behind Romania, the USA, Australia and Norway with Lithuania being a significant wildcard. I do think there is a lot of reasons for optimism here though and I can see the general public being completely unaware of them and RTE barely acknowledge their existence only for them to pop up and medal.

 

M2- - The toughest one to know as we have no idea where their form is. They are world bronze medallists and if they replicate that final performance from last year they will medal again but obviously a very disrupted season. Rowing though, you don’t necessarily need that good a season, it just needs to come together at the right time.

 

Not so good contenders

 

LW2x – They rank somewhere from 5^th to 8^th with the Canadians, French and Greeks on form. I don’t know I feel optimistic about this boat and can see them beating New Zealand, the USA or Romania for a medal and I think they will at least make the Final. This may just be me being optimistic and I’m not sure the evidence really points to them having a medal chance.

 

Rowing expectations- I maintain that this season has looked very similar to the last 2 years where we ultimately won 3 global medals in Olympic events but I accept that we only have 2 favourites and one of those is quite tentative so 2 medals is probably the expected outcome. Anything less 6 finals is a disappointment though.

 

 

Rugby Sevens

 

Contenders-

 

I’m so nervous for this now, We have a really good chance. Crucial first game against South Africa but then its either beat New Zealand for a quarter final likely against South Africa or the USA or a lose to New Zealand and face a quarter final probably against France or possibly Fiji. We are absolutely good enough but I’m not brave enough to pick a medal here.

 

Not so good contenders-

 

Women’s sevens- Will need to either upset Australia in the pools or France/ New Zealand/ Australia in the quarter-finals to make the semis. If we can do that we could sneak a bronze, but it will be tough.

 

Sevens Expectations- Men- Make the semis, Women-  be competitive in a quarter final.

 

 

Sailing

 

Not so good contenders-

 

Finn Lynch (ILCA7)- Needs a lot to go right but has produced this calibre fo performance before

 

Outisde Chances-

 

Eve McMahon- Is this the tournament where she comes of age in the senior ranks, If not then not a medal chance. If so then could become a real chance in a hurry.

 

Men’s 49er- Have stagnated a bit, but will likely win a race or two, consistency is the question mark.

 

Sailing expectations- Is two medal races and optimistic projection? Maybe, maybe not.

 

 

Swimming

 

Favourites

 

Daniel Wiffen- Two really good chances, especially with no Hafnouai and Sam Short potentially not being in great form. It is possible he wins one medal but I think it is likely he either wins 2 or 0. I trust him, so let’s say silver in the 1500, bronze in the 800.

 

Contenders

 

Mona McSharry- Apparently her entire focus has been on these Olympics which explains a slightly disappointing world championships. Needs the swim of her life to medal but I would also expect her to have the swim of her life.

 

Swimming expectations- I’m willing to say 2 medals. Outside of the three potential medal events hopefully 3/4 other semi finals/ top 16s and maybe one additional final/top 8 (open water).

 

 

Taekwondo

 

Not so good contenders-

Jack Woolley- hopefully can beat Magomedov in the last 16, then have a go at Vito dell’Aquila but safe in the knowledge that there is decent chance of a rep even if he loses.

 

Taekwondo expectation- Win a round. See where that leaves us medal chances wise.

 

 

	Predicted medals	Favourites	Contenders	Tier 2 contenders	Outside chances	Total contenders (including favourites)
Athletics	2	2	1	1	0	4
Badminton	0	0	0	0	0	0
Boxing	3	2	5	1	2	8
Canoe Slalom	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling	0	0	1	1	0	2
Diving	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equestrian	1	1	0	4	1	5
Field Hockey	0	0	0	0	0	0
Golf	0	0	3	1	0	4
Gymanstics	1	1	0	0	0	1
Rowing	2	2	3	1	0	6
Rugby Sevens	0	0	1	1	0	2
Sailing	0	0	0	1	2	1
Swimming	2	2	1	0	0	3
Taekwondo	0	0	0	1	0	1
Total	11	10	15	12	5	37

 

Predicted medals (2 gold, 4 silver, 5 bronze)

Gold- Kellie Harrington (W60kg boxing)

Gold- Lightweight Men’s Double Sculls

Silver- Rhys McClenaghan (Pommel horse)

Silver- Team Showjumping

Silver- Daniel Wiffen (1500m freestyle)

Silver- Rhasidat Adeleke (400m)

Bronze- Aoife O’Rourke (W75kg boxing)

Bronze- Daniel Wiffen (800m freestyle)

Bronze- Men’s Double Sculls

Bronze- Aidan Walsh (M71kg boxing) (realistically subject to change after the draw)

Bronze- Mixed 4*400m relay.

 

I know, I know I am setting myself up for disappointment and we are Irish so everything will go wrong but these are what I honestly think will happen in each sport and hopefully my contenders thing is at least somewhat convincing. I ended up with 37 contenders which at a medal rate of 36% would be 13.5 medals. I don’t think we will do that well but I think it shows that predicting 11 is far from outlandish.

My Final thoughts on Ireland’s medal prospects.

 

So first of all, I thought it was interesting that everyone other than me had settled on expecting a figure of 5-7 medals, which look in historical is as good as our best ever Olympics but I do think undersells the quality of this Olympic team. So what I thought was interesting is that despite me being a lot higher on our medal hopes than others here we all generally seem to agree that we have mid 30s or so medal contenders. Now exactly how you define a contender is a bit ambiguous but I was interested to look at Tokyo and try to assess how many contenders countries had and what that translated to medal wise.

 

 

Now retrospectively defining contenders isn’t ideal particularly for sports I have very little knowledge of so there is a margin for error here but they should be similar to who we are now defining as contenders for Irelands. For example for Wrestling I just had a rule of if you medalled or lost a medal fight you were a contender and if not you weren’t so its not perfect but the error should cancel itself out ie. There are as many contenders included that weren't actually contenders as actual contenders that i didn't include. I left out the top 10 countries by number of athetes (and for some reason Brazil, I didn’t have that strict a rule.) as obviously the likes of the USA don’t have a skewed list of contenders as only their best athletes actually get to go to the Olympics. (Also it would have taken ages). I also didn’t include countries without at least 18 or so athletes but I did include countries that had chances but didn’t win any medals.

 

 

I can post the entire list of the 65 countries or so I looked at but the gist of it is that 40% of who I retrospectively defined as a contender for Tokyo were medallists. Now I do accept that these numbers are probably skewed a bit by countries that are strong in one/ two specific sports and therefore have a higher contenders to medal ratios. Just looking at Cuba (wrestling, boxing, Jumping events), Kenya, Ethiopia (distance running), Jamaica (Sprinting), and Georgia (Wrestling, Weightlifting). They do have a slightly higher medal to contender ratio but only marginally at 42%.

 

Anyway I accept there may be flaws with looking too generally so just looking at the 8 countries that profile as similarly to Ireland’s squad for Paris. (133 athletes 33-38 or so contenders)

Country	Athletes	Medals	Contenders
Hungary	169	20	41
New Zealand	220	20	40
Sweden	136	9	33
Switzerland	107	13	33
Belgium	123	7	30
Denmark	108	11	29
Ireland	116	4	26
Czechia	115	11	26

 

Now first thing that stands out is that we underperformed in Tokyo but we already knew that.

 

So just looking at these 8 countries from Tokyo, 36.8% of these contenders medalled in Tokyo. I believe the average number of contenders listed by myself, Dodge, and Cosmo a couple of months ago was 35.5 which would mean that this analysis would give us an expected medal total of 13. Now I accept that this analysis lacks nuance but like the primary reason this could be prove inaccurate is if Ireland’s medal contenders this time around were skewed towards being weaker medal contenders and I really don’t think that is true.

 

We have the 22^nd largest team and look I don’t have the knowledge to define contenders across the board for this Olympics for every country but I would assume we would rank similarly in terms of the number of contenders we have. So it is strange to me to not expect to at least finish in the 20s in the medal table/ number of total medals. That is not to say oh we are going to guaranteed to go and win 13, far from it. Just that I do think that our perceptions of medal chances are (understandably) quite influenced by past Irish failures and I think if a different country with a better history had this squad they would look at this squad and go easily 9/10 medals, how high into double figures can we go.

Now we don’t have that history and its very possible past failures bite us again but I think winning 6/7 medals is what that would be, I think that is the scenario where things go wrong. A lot more has to go wrong than right for us to not reach at least 8 or so medals.

 

 

Individual Events Table

 

Points	Athlete	Nation	Event	Won/Lost
30	Mondo Duplantis		Men's Pole vault	Won
29	Janja Garnbret		Sport climbing combined	Won
28	Katie Ledecky		Women's 1500m freestyle	Won
27	Simone Biles		Women's artistic gymnastics Individual All-around	Won
26	Qiu Qiyuan		Uneven bars	Lost
25	Summer McIntosh		Women's 400m IM	Won
24	Zou Jingyuan		Parallel bars	Won
23	Yaroslava Mahuchikh		Women's High jump	Won
22	Harrie Lavreysen		Track Cycling Men's Individual sprint	Won
21	Faith Kipyegon		Women's 1500m	Won
20	Bakhodir Jalolov		Boxing Men's 92+kg	Won
19	Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone		Women's 400m hurdles	Won
18	Liu Yang		Rings	Won
17	Leon Marchand		Men's 400m IM	Won
16	Karolien Florijn		Women's Single sculls	Won
15	Li Wenwen		Weightlifting Women's 81+kg	Won
14	Hou Zhihui		Weightlifting Women's 49kg	Won
13	Ryan Crouser		Men's Shot put	Won
12	Liu Huanhua		Weightlifting Men's 102kg	Won
11	Daiki Hashimoto		Men's artistic gymnastics Individual All-around	Lost
10	Li Fabin		Weightlifting  Men's 61kg	Won
9	Emma Finucane		Track Cycling Women's Individual Sprint	Lost
8	Ethan Katzberg		Men's Hammer	Won
7	Jakob Ingebrigtsen		Men's 5000m	Won
6	Sam Short		Men's 400m freestyle	Lost
5	Grant Holloway		Men's 110m hurdles	Won
4	Joshua Cheptegei		Men's 10000m	Won
3	Kayley McKeown		Women's 100m backstroke	Won
2	Tammara Thibeault		Boxing Women's 75kg	Lost
1	Nina Kennedy		Women's Pole Vault	Won

 

Duo Events Table

 

Points	Athlete	Nation	Event	Won/Lost
30	Emily Craig/ Imogen Grant		Women's Lightweight double sculls	Won
27	Lian Junjie/ Yang Hao		M10m synchro  platform	Won
24	Wang Zongyuan/ Long Daoyi		M3m sycnhro springboard	Won
21	Chen Yuxi/Quan Hongchan		W10m synchro platform	Won
18	Stefan Broenink/ Melvin Twellaar		Men's double sculls	Lost
15	Paul O'Donovan/ Fintan McCarthy		Men's Lightweight double sculls	Won
12	Ancuta Bodnar/ Simona Radis		Women's double sculls	Lost
9	Chang Yani/ Chen Yiwen		W3m synchro springboard	Won
6	Ymkje Clevering/ Veronique Meester		Women's pair	Won
3	Zheng Siwei/ Huang Yaqiong		Badminton mixed doubles	Won

 

Team Events Table

 

Points	Athlete	Nation	Event	Won/Lost
30	USA artistic gymnastics team		Women's team artistic gymnastics	Won
28	Australia swimming Women's 4*200 relay		Women's 4*200 freestyle relay	Won
26	China Men's table tennis		Men's team table tennis	Won
24	China Women's table tennis		Women's team table tennis	Won
22	Netherlands field hockey		Women's Field Hockey	Won
20	Great Britain Equestrian eventing team		Team Eventing	Won
18	USA athletics Women's 4*400m relay team		Women's 4*400m relay	Won
16	USA Men's basketball team		Men's basketball	Won
14	Netherlands Men's quad		Men's quadruple sculls	Won
12	Netherlands track cycling team sprint		Men's team sprint	Won
10	Romania Women's eight		Women's eight	Won
8	USA athletics Women's 4*100m relay		Women's 4*100m relay	Won
6	French triathlon mixed relay team		Triathlon mixed relay	Lost
4	New Zealand Women's rugby sevens team		Women's rugby sevens	Won
2	Japan's Judo team		Judo Mixed team event	Lost