Ogreman

57 minutes ago, dodge said:

There’s plenty of speculation in that post and I’m not going to argue point by point

Why not? Let's have the conversation. Is that not what this thread is for?

57 minutes ago, dodge said:

I’ll just say specifically on Moorhouse, she’s had 9 fights against non Irish women in the last year and lost 4 of them. I’m not saying she has no chance, but she needs a very good draw.

She has 8 international fights and 3 losses in the past year. What's the fourth? All of the losses split decisions. She lost to 2022 European champion 52kg Tetyana Kob at Usti Nad Labem and then reversed that and beat her at European games. Then lost to World bronze medallist Wassila Lkhadiri in a very close fight at European games and then "loses" a fight here that for me she deserved to win against a boxer who just beat the World and Asian champions at Strandja. I guess your refering to the Nikolina Cacic fight at European under22s in 2022. Yeah that was a bad loss but I would make the observation that Nikolina Cacic is in fact an Olympian at 57kg and that Moorehouse is miles better now than she was a couple of years ago. She is young, young boxers improve.

Only counting international fights is also a weird way of counting this when Caitlin Fryers is a 2022 European silver medallist in this weightclass and Shannon Sweeney is also a European medallist. You don't stop being an Olympic calibre boxer just because you lose split decisions against some of the best boxers in the world.

Like Jude Gallagher had 3 international fights last year and lost all 3. You add in the context that one was against they were against the European champion (Javier Ibanez Diaz), the panam and 2021 world champion (Jahmal Harvey) and Strandja silver medallist (Orazbek Assylkulov)(lost to Ibanez Diaz and beat two other now qualified Olympians including the now World champion plus the reigning European champ at the time at the same tournament.) He qualified here and looks a decent outside bet for an Olympic medal. 

I just think this a very reductive way of looking at Moorehouse. Her results are consistent with a comfortably top 8-10 boxer in the world. I had her 10th when I ranked them in December. I would move her up a couple of spots now having beaten Thi Tham Nguyen. Boxrec currently has her 9th with one per nation. (10th with double Japan.)

Lastly there are 22 spots at W50kg (well 21 plus a universality spot). Even if you are a bit lower on Moorehouse you should still expect her to qualify. There really isn't a bad draw left other than maybe Namiki as I said.

57 minutes ago, dodge said:

FWIW I don’t think Aidan Walsh will go to Thailand. Just a bunch

He seemed happy enough here. Certainly possible but I think if he is in a good place mentally which he seems to be he will go.

1 hour ago, dodge said:

We need a little luck with them too but the others need a lot of luck. Moorehouse included

Who do you think would beat Moorehouse? 

She has beaten Thi Tham Nguyen  and Tetyana Kob . She looked a lot stronger than the likes of Alua Balkybekova , Natalia Kuczewska  and Pihla Kaivo Oja  at this tournament. Maybe if Olympic medallist Tsukimi Namiki  comes back into the Japan squad but even then I think I would back Moorehouse. Probability doesn't work like this but there is a bit of she has to get a good draw eventually right?

I would be more worried about Cassidy given there are only three quotas left and a just under 25% chance he draws Alfiorau  before the semis. Cassidy has improved a lot since he lost to Alfiorau in 2021 and got a lot closer to beating Oralbay than Alfiorau did so it certainly wouldn't be a gauranteed loss but I'm sure Cassidy is sick of having to beat world champions just to qualify. (I know Alfiorau is technically only a world silver medallist but still)

I think a lot of luck for the others is a bit strong. It would help but like there is no one left that Aidan Walsh or Jennifer Lehane can't beat. Walsh, I think would love a second go at Wanderson  but Wanderson would start as favourite. He has beaten Nishant Dev  before. Zakhareiev , Eashash and Schachidov  would all be close fights but I think Walsh would start as the favourite. He would definitely be favoured against Durkacz , Cuellar  or Richardson . Obviously ideally he would only have to beat 1 maybe 2 of these boxers but he certainly doesn't "need" a lot of luck with the draw. Plus there are five quotas so a little bit of extra scope draw wise. There will probably be one weird one like Kiwan  this time around but like probably at least 4 of the 9 boxers I mentioned will qualify and Walsh is at worst in the middle of that pack.

Lehane admittedly has it a bit tougher but like, for me at least she is better than Sirine Charaabi  and Thi Kim Anh Vo  who qualified here. Obviously don't really know exactly what happened against Romane Moulai  and if she can't beat Moulai or that kind of calibre of boxer again ye she probably isn't making the Olympics. Hsiao wen Huang  and Anastasia Kovalchuk  losing here doesn't help although Kovalchuk's recent form has been terrible so maybe that fight would be winnable. Zhaina Shekerbekova , Sandra Drabik , Johana Gomez , Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg  (assuming Mongolia show up to the second qualifier), the aforementioned Moulai, Im Aeji  (who beat Hsiao Wen Huang and deserved to beat Charaabi) and maybe Scarlett Delgado  would all be tough. She beat Sara Cirkovic  which in hindsight was a really good win and obviously outclassed Niamh Fay at nationals who I think has beaten 4 boxers who are now qualified for the Olympics (in 3 different weightclasses) over the last couple of years. (If only Niamh Fay was in any way consistent ay.) Like she is capable of this calibre of win. Also the draw obviously could be very kind (Kovalchuk had a kind draw here and then bottled it losing to Islem Ferchichi . I have no idea why Ukraine did so poorly here. Yeah I know, there is a war on but like this was still a remarkably awful performance from Ukraine.) but when you have a situation where you have 8/9 fairly evenly matched boxers for 4 quotas you kind of know on balance you will have to beat 1 or 2 of said boxers. I think she is good enough but let's see.

Martin McDonagh obviously is still a long shot but he is rapidly improving. Took 2 really good wins here and had the closest fight of the tournament against a Tokyo Olympian. Obviously with the likes of Fernando Arzola  and Danabieke Bayikewuzi  still in the mix qualifying is very unlikely but Omar Shiha  managed to ride his luck a bit here and get a quota and I don't think he is much better than McDonagh. There are still probably 9 or so boxers definitely ahead of McDonagh so he would need to cause possibly multiple upsets but they happen especially at super heavyweight.

The optimistic way of looking at things for Sean Mari is well Juanma Lopez  came out of nowhere and through a weak bracket to qualify here. You need to be very optimistic to convince yourself that Mari still has a chance though. I just kind of hope he gets a straightforward draw in his first couple of fights. Losing his first fight at all 3 qualifying tournaments would be harsh on the man.

Just for completeness W66kg whether it is Walsh/ Broadhurst/ O'Rourke (I think O'Rourke is unlikely at this point. Feel like if she was going to get picked it would have been here. Hopefully she gets her chance in LA.). Getting Stefanie Von Berge  again wouldn't be ideal but us qualifying at W66kg has to be the safest pick of any of the 51 quotas available at the second world qualifer.

So for me disregarding injury risk, surprise selections or a robbery worse than the Grainne Walsh one today our chances look roughly like.

So I am still at should get 3 (9 in total), hopefully get 4 (10), Not out of the question we could get 5 (11) but at this point that is unlikely. Then again, Unfortunately the risk of falling even of the IABA's original taget of 8 still exists when we really could (and should) have been going into the final qualifier mostly playing with house money.

10 minutes ago, dodge said:

I think we’ll add 2 at the next one

Why just 2?

Something will have to have gone very wrong if Daina Moorehouse, Grainne Walsh/ Amy Broadhurst or Kelyn Cassidy don't secure a quota at the last one. I would rank us 1st of the remaining boxers at W50kg and W66kg (regardless of who we pick). Cassidy just needs to avoid Alfiorau although he could absolutely beat him even if he did draw him. 

Aidan Walsh and Jennifer Lehane are both in the mix maybe a little bit more dependent on the draw but still very much in with a shout. Wouldn't entirely rule out Niamh Fay coming into the squad but its unlikely. 

McDonagh impressed here, qualifying is a tough ask but boxers worse than him managed to get a quota here. Mari would need a miracle.

Besides how many 3-2 split decisions in quota fights can we possibly lose? 3 at European games (counting the Cassidy Khyzniak 3-0), 2 here plus the Moorehouse Bobokulova fight which was effectively for the quota in that bracket. (I mean there was the McDonagh one as well but Lenzi would have been tough even if he had got that decision.)

I thought all three of the big ones at this tournament should have gone our way. The Cassidy Oralbay fight was genuinely 50-50 so ye know you'll lose some of them but still fuming about the Grainne Walsh and Daina Moorehouse decisions.

Like if you had told me before our nine European games quarter finals that we would only have six qualified after the first world qualifying tournament.

Look we can still get 10 and 9 should still be the baseline but man I feel like we should already have 9.

Anyway delighted for Jude Gallagher. Carlo Paalam getting injured against Andrey Bonilla and subsequently having to withdraw obviously helped but the form Gallagher is in. May well have beaten him anyway. His win against Mohamed Hussam uddin was worthy of a quota anyway. 

20 hours ago, hckošice said:

Never heard in my life about boxing judges which would favour a Slovak boxer over USA (especially a former world champion and kinda USA poster boy.)

 

+ I watched the bout life on Olympic Channel, and you know, when even both their announcers (usually USA biased) called it fair call I am quite surprised to read this from you. but, Sure, ok, it is your oppinion and you are entitled to have it.

 

Bandi won both first 2 rounds fairly (again both OC commentators admitted it), in the last Gonzalez was clearly much much better but it came too late for him and Bandi knew after the 2 rounds he do not need to risk anymore and at the end he did the job and kept his win.

 

Only Gonzalez is here to blame for being extremely passive in both first rounds and underestimated Bandi, definitely not the judges, which in opposite were surprisingly pretty fair and not "fall" under the name of the favorite and stronger/more important country.

Yeah ok, I rewatched this fight. Still think Gonzalez probably deserved to win but it was very close and wasn't clearly wrong. 

To be clear my macro take on the judging throughout qualifying is that (other than host country bias which has existed at every boxing tournament ever) the judging has been remarkably unbiased. It just hasn't been very good. 

On the commentary thing I don't think yer man is that good a judge of boxing fights. I have watched many a fight where it feels he seems to be commentating on an entirely different fight to what I'm watching. To be fair I have thought Nicola Adams has been fairly insightful, the other three of them I'm not so sure about.

Lastly my own judging abilities aren't very good, I mentioned the Csemez Gonzalez fight because I had been surprised by the decision and then I had also seen others elsewhere be surprised by the decision. It is completely fair to disregard my opinion on judging decisions in specific fights.

I mostly agree that the current scoring system doesn't work effectively. For me I would just change the default score for a round to 10-8 and then only close rounds be scored 10-9 and one sided rounds 10-7 rather than the current system where unless you batter the shit out of someone for three minutes straight, the score will be 10-9. This would obviously deviate from pro boxing and make the sytem more complex and being simple to understand is the primary logic behind the current scoring system but I think it would make fights more interesting and should make judging decisions more accurate

Yes, the judges here are just bad, but there were only probably a couple of decisions they actually got wrong today though (Csemez  3-2 Gonzalez  and Ovezov  3-2 Shahbakhsh  are the two that spring to mind but I would need to watch them again to be sure). Obviously I only saw half of a lot of fights and missed some entirely but this was the sense I got. I think the IOC is kind of using the qualifying tournaments to figure out who the bad judges are so hopefully by the Olympics the judging will be closer to competent but obviously using the qualifying tournaments to do this is far from ideal.

2 hours ago, dodge said:

That and a warning being too big of a punishment.

Anyway this is what I actually wanted to address because the comentators made this mistake too. This statement is sort of true but also not really true at all. In actuality one warning (point deduction) can almost never change the result of a fight. Two and ye you have to win all three rounds for at least 3 judges to win the fight which is obviously pretty devastating but one deduction doesn't really do anything because of how ties are scored. 

So disregarding 10-8s typically the possible scores are 30-27, 29-28, 28-29 and 27-30. If a judge gives all three rounds to the same boxer points deductions can never effect anything (3rd points deduction is a disqualification) so the score changes to 30-26 or 27-29 (30-25 and 27-28 with 2 warnings) not effecting the result at all. If a boxer loses 28-29 and has a points deduction then it just changes to 27-29 and again no impact on the outcome of the fight. The confusing one is when a boxer wins two rounds and has a points deduction in which the score does indeed change to 28-28 but whats crucial here is the rules regarding tied scorecards.

I don't think this is widely understood very well but the rule regarding tied scores is if the judges who have it tied can effect the outcome, then they go back to those judges and they pick a winner. Basically if the tied scores matter the relevant judges pick a winner and as such you can never end a fight with the score being 2-0, 2-1 or 1-0. 

I'll use an actual example to explain this. So lets look at one of today's 57kg fights Carlo Paalam  vs Andrey Bonilla . This fight ended 3-1 to Paalam after Bonilla got a point deduction for what was basically a body slam. (Paalam seemed to hurt his shoulder so hopefully he is ok) (Also its a while since I have seen a boxer as dirty as Bonilla. Would not want to have to box him.) So the judges scores ended up being 29-27 (29-28), 29-27 (29-28), 27-29 (27-30), 28-28 (28-29), 29-27 (29-28) (score with no deduction in brackets) where judges 1,2 and 5 had Paalam winning two rounds and losing one. Judge 3 having Bonilla winning all three and judge 4 having Bonilla winning 2 and losing one round. With the points deduction obviously meaning that judge 4's score was tied. All the other judges results were unaffected by the deduction. Because judge 4's score couldn't change the outcome of the fight his scorecard was simply left as a tie. If he was asked he almost certainly would have given Bonilla the fight given that he gave him 2 rounds and Paalam only one but that would still only make the score 3-2 so it is just left as a tie and the fight's score is 3-1.

If for example one more judge went in favour of Bonilla the scores in the Paalam Bonilla fight would therfore be 29-27, 29-27, 27-29, 28-28, 28-28. This fight would not end 2-1 in favour of Paalam. The two tied scores, in this hypothethical case judge 4 and 5, could cumalatively change the winner of the fight so they go back to judge 4 and 5 and they both pick a winner. Again, crucially for a fight to be 28-28 the boxer who received a points deduction has to have won two rounds for that judge and therefore that judge logically would almost always pick that boxer to win. In this scenario the score with a points deduction would be 2-3 in favour of Bonilla assuming judge 4 and 5 are logical and if the points deduction never happened the score would also be 2-3 in favour of Bonilla.

To emphasize this any fight where with tied scores the fight initially is scored 2-0, 2-1 or 1-0 the tied judges choose a victor and because the only way to have a points deduction and a tied score (not including 10-8 scenarios) is where the boxer who received a deduction won 2 rounds for the tied judge/ judges. Logically one point deduction should never change the outcome of a fight. 

Unfortunately for my argument and the reason I had to caveat everything above with almosts is there are occasionally counter examples and one actually happened today. In the Susan Aguas  vs Marjona Savrieva  fight at W50kg, Savrieva picked up a points deduction in the third round and the scores ended up being 30-26, 29-27, 28-28, 28-28 and 28-28 as a result. As explained above Aguas doesn't win the fight 2-0, the three tied judges could and should have changed the final outcome so judge 3,4 and 5 choose their winner. Judge 3 and 5 of course chose Savrieva having both given her 2 rounds. Whats strange though is on this occasion judge 4 despite giving Savrieva the first 2 rounds and Aguas only the third decided that Aguas won the fight which as I say doesn't really make much logical sense. If judge 4 believed Aguas was that dominant in the third round then that round should have been scored 10-8 by said judge. I think I have only ever seen this scenario of illogical tied decisions happen once or twice.

Apologies for probably overexplaining this a bit but it is quite counterintuitive and the morale of the story is barring stupidity or a second non standard score ( second points deduction/ 10-8 round) one solitary warning despite seemingly changing the scores a lot should never change the ultimate outcome of a fight.

Just finally there is funny quirk of this system where if you win a fight for 3 judges and 2 have it tied (be it a points deduction or a 10-8 round) you would win a split decision 3-0. However if you win a fight for just 1/2 judges and the other 3/4 have it tied. The tied judges are then evaluated again and if they all give you the fight you would then win a unanimous decision 5-0.

Obviously this doesn't effect the result or anything but I just think its funny that potentially winning one less round for 1/2 judges in rare cases can actually turn a split decision win into a unanimous win.

This happened in the Maud Van der Toorn  vs Jennifer Fernadez  fight where after Van der Toorn had a points deduction 1 judge had her winning (having given her all three rounds) and the other 4 judges had it tied but having given her 2 rounds gave her the fight. If she had convinced two more judges to give her all 3 rounds (Not that she deserved 3 rounds, Fernandez deservedly won round 2) she would have the fight 3-0 and it would have been a split decision and not a unanimous one.

37 minutes ago, Illya said:

She is already out and I see this is coming for Zakhareiev

Yeah fair enough. Its panic time now.

13 minutes ago, Illya said:

Disastrous tournament for Ukraine, I really doubt if we are able to win 1 quota

Relax man. You still have Anastasia Kovalchuk and Yurii Zakhareiev who were the boxers who were likely to win a quota in the first place. Sure the draw had opened up for Zamotayev with Molina losing and you have had a couple of dissapointing loses but this tournament is still young. If you end up with 2 quotas thats a good result and how the rest of it went doesn't matter that much. (Zakhareiev does still has a very tough path of course)

3 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

 Dev Nishant def.  Lewis Richardson (3-1)

Well they couldn't both lose. They are having a good early battle for who can have a more disastrous tournament.

Then again they both could salvage this. Hussamuddin, Nishant and Ankushita for India. Brits still have 5 or so in contention just their favourites are out.

Australia announce their squad for 2024

https://rowingaustralia.com.au/trio-of-olympic-champions-bolster-mens-eight-as-2024-team-unveiled/

• Headline news is that they have opted for the Men's eight as their priority sweep boat instead of attempting to defend their Olympic title in the Men's four. Olympic champions Alexander Purnell, Spencer Turrin and Jack Hargreaves come into that boat.
• Paddy Holt moves from the eight into the pair with Simon Keenan.
• Angus Widdicombe and Tim Masters move from the eight to the four with Fergus Hamilton from the pair joining two time Olympic medallist Alexander Hill.
• The pair was 8th and the old four 6th at worlds so chances are the net result of all this rejigging of the pair and the four is a couple of B final appearances but maybe they can sneak into an A final. Then again obviously the idea is mostly to try an upgrade from bronze in the eight.

• On the sculling side of things opted to focus on the double instead of a quad despite the quad being close to Olympic qualification last year. They select a double of David Bartholot who most recently was in the quad and newcomer Marcus della Marta. They will consider and presumably select a quad for FOQR in a few weeks time.

• For the women their world silver medal winning pair is of course unchanged and they opt to not yet commit to selections in the eight or the four. Hard to know which one they should prioritise.
• The only change to their women's sculling squad seems to be Laura Gourley swapping the double for the priority quad and Harriet Hudson going the other way.
• The women's lightweight double sees Giorgia Miansarow replace Lucy Coleman joining Anneka Reardon although they haven't commited to sending the boat to FOQR after its 13th place finish at last year's worlds. It's competitive enough that I would absolutely send it.

They also announced they would race a b squad at World cup 1.

45 minutes ago, Cinnamon Bun said:

Will be overwhelming favourite in the 2nd qualifier I'd assume.

Not sure that he will get picked again. The Brits were very liberable with changing their squad after the first qualifier with just 4 of their 10 remaining unqualified boxers after European games keeping their spot in the team albeit there was a couple of injuries. Ramtin Musah and George Crotty are both good boxers and had a case to be selected for this one. Plus two of Kelyn Cassidy, Nurbek Oralbay and Aleksei Alfiorau won't qualify here so whoever is the British selection would still be vulnerable to a bad draw plus they could of course lose to someone like Akylov again.

This table would have been more useful pre tournament as I think 2 of my picks have already being knocked out. I have this obviously being profitable for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan after underwhelming Asian games performances and have them moving to joint 3rd on the total number of qualifiers list. Ukraine and Poland should recover from poor European performances here although I would have expected to have GB in this category too but I have them only taking 2 quotas which is still decent just not where they expect themselves to be. Thailand, Colombia, USA and Spain (Molina lost though so one is already gone) all add to already good continental totals. Ireland, Italy India, Japan, Armenia, France and Georgia would all be dissapointed not to add more to their quotas but all are capable of outperforming this projection. I think Germany, Ghana and the Netherlands are probably the most notable countries that would still not have a quota. Germany could easily get one here I just didn't personally didn't pick Tiafack or Von Berge.

Interestingly I have Asia picking up 21 quotas Europe 18 (counting Ngamba) and 10 for the Americas. Unfortunately none for Africa although that is largely because a lot of the best boxers aren't competing here I would assume predominantly for funding reasons. Mozambique, Zambia and DR Congo to name a few could all have been in contention for quotas here.

W66kg

Bracket 1

My Pick- Navbakhor Khamidova (7) , Other contenders- Emilie Sonvico (8) , Ani Hovsepyan (9) , Ankushita Boro (12) , Maria Moronta (14) . 

I tend to regard Emilie Sonvico as a good guage for this weightclass. If you're good you will beat her, If you're not you won't. She faces Ankushita Boro in the first round. Ankushita replaces Arundhati Choudhary  in the Indian team who beat Sonvico at Strandja so we will get an immediate guage on if they got their selection right. Luna Beeloo (19)  awaits the winner before a "semi final" against Navbakhor Khamidova. Khamidova has beaten Ankushita before and would also be the favourite against Sonvico. The other half of the bracket will be decided in a "quarter final" between Ani Hovsepyan who moves down from middleweight and Olympian Maria Moronta. Both are more natural light-middleweights than welterweights. Hovsepyan lost on the previous occasion she matched up with Khamidova and I suspect Moronta would struggle too.

Bracket 2

My Pick- Nien Chin Chen (1) , Other contenders-  Milena Matovic (11) , Anastasia Chernokolenko (15) .

Should be pretty straightforward this one. Nien Chin Chen has a couple of fairly straightforward fights against Jessica Triebelova (21)  and either Krista Kovalainen (17)  or Saida Lahmidi (18) . Meanwhile another of the considerable number who have move down from 75kg Anastasia Chernokolenko has a tough ask to beat Milena Matovic. (The 75kg to 66kg jump isn't as big as you might think as a lot of the top middleweights box close to 70kg than 75kg.) The winner would likely face Marianna Soto (24) . Chen should comfortably win but you never know.

Bracket 3

My Pick- Camila Camilo (2) , Other contenders- Angela Carini (10) , Ivanusa Moreira (13) , Sara Kali (16) .

This should be Camila Camilo's quota to lose but she is young and still fairly inexperienced. She will be tested straight off the bat against Tokyo Olympian Angela Carini who interestingly comes back into the Italian team over Assunta Canfora who "lost" in the most bizarre RSC decision possibly ever against Camilo at last years worlds. The Italians will be out for retribution here. Whoever wins that fight would likely go on to meet Sara Kali in a "semi final" who not for the first time managed to impressivley beat 2022 world silver medallist Charlie Cavanagh CAN at Canadian trials. Unfortunately you have to go back to 2017 to find a win for her against non Canadian opposition. Ivanusa Moreira always seems to get a favourable draw for her first couple of fights. Here she meets Emily Nakalema (23) UGA who did beat her back in the Tokyo qualification tournament and likely Yulianny Alvarez (25) VEN. Nakalema or Moreira could threaten Camilo or Carini but I suspect Camilo will get the job done here.

Bracket 4

My Pick- Aneta Rygielska (3) , Other contenders- Stefanie Von Berge (4) , Grainne Walsh (5) , Stephanie Pineiro (6) .

Far and away the toughest bracket here. First up Aneta Rygielska will be tested against Stephanie Pineiro who is good but not that good. Rygielska then meets Seon Su-jin (28)  followed by the winner of Natalya Bogdonava (20)  vs Loren Balbuena (22)  who strangely moved down from middleweight to replace Lucia Noelia Perez . On the other side of the draw we see 2022 European champion Stefanie Von Berge meet controversial Irish selection Grainne Walsh. Amy Broadhurst was injured during the selection process but may have been available here and that still leaves 2022 70kg world champion Lisa O'Rourke who beat Walsh in Poland last November. It is a strange pick but make no mistake Walsh is a very good boxer and multi European medallist, she just doesn't have the same Olympic medal threat as the other 2 well certainly not as much of a medal hope as Broadhurst. Anyway, this should be a very good fight but I would lean towards Walsh winning. (I ranked them the other way around though before they drew eachother so I clearly amn't sure). Anyway, whether it is Walsh or Von berge, Rygielska has won and lost against both of them in this Olympic cycle. I think Rygielska is the most reliable but any of the three of them could take the quota here.  

W75kg

Only thirty entries so surprisingly there are 2 boxers who start the tournament just 2 fights away from a quota.

Bracket 1

My Pick- Cindy Ngamba (1) , Other contenders- Busra Isildar (5) , Veronkia Nakota (6) , Naomi Graham (4) .

Strong first bracket with 5 of my top 10 in the rankings all here especially given the lack of depth in this weightclass. Cindy Ngamba had an impressive GB open in January but is yet to break through with a major medal albeit her loses have come against elite opposition. She has a very tough path here though with the powerful but past her best Naomi Graham. We then shift to the other end of the age bracket with 2022 70kg youth world champion Veronika Nakota who already has a couple of impressive results at senior level. On the other side of the draw Busra Isildar meets one time world champion (2016) Valentina Khalzova KAZ. The likely outcome is a qualifying fight between Ngamba and Isildar which should be a fight worthy of an Olympic quota.

Bracket 2

My Pick- Baison Manikon (8) , Other contenders- Karolina Makhno (9) , Hergie Bacyadan (11) , Chantelle Reid (12) .

The draw has opened up for 2022 European under 22 champion Karolina Makhno although that isn't to say she won't be tested. At the top of this bracket Asian bronze medallist Baison Manikon who will meet Makhno in a "semi final". That fight could go either way. Meanwhile Hergie Bacyadan will meet Chantelle Reid provided Bacyadan can beat Viviane Pereira . Chantelle Reid is a strange selection by the British and I think Kerry Davis who she replaced would have qualified from this bracket. I have Bacyadan slightly ahead of Reid but we shall see. If Makhno could come through Manikon and Bacyadan/ Reid they would be the best two wins of her career. I'm going to pick the in form Manikon though. (If you couldn't tell, yes I changed my pick halfway through writing this)  

Bracket 3

My Pick- Citlalli Ortiz (3) , Other contenders- Sunniva Hofstad (7) , Love Holgersson (13) , Gabriele Stonkute (14) .

Hmm a very northern European heavy bracket. 2022 81kg world champion Gabriele Stonkute meets Elizabeth Andiego (21) in her first fight before matching up against Sunniva Hofstad in the second round. There one previous meeting went Stonkute's way although it was a split decision and in Lithuania. The other side of the draw sees Citlalli Ortiz meet the experienced and very tall Love Holgersson. I mention the height thing because Ortiz is very short for a middleweight and will struggle reach wise. Then again if she can get on the inside she should win. Ortiz vs Hofstad or possibly Stonkute should be a decent fight but I am backing the Mexican.

Bracket 4

My Pick- Elzbieta Wojcik (2) , Other contenders- Melissa Gemini (15) .

Draw could not have been kinder to Elzbieta Wojcik. She does have to come through against Melissa Gemini. They uhm drew at an Italy vs Poland international last year although presumably with Italian judges. One of Eseta Flint (19) , Patricia Mbata (18) , Keidy Guevara (17)  and Monika Langerova (20) will meet Wojcik in a qualifying fight. All four of them are fairly evenly matched but won't threaten Wojcik

Predictions part 4 

W50,W57,M51,M71,M92+ bottom page 5/ page 6 in that order

W54,W60 on page 9

M57,M80 on page 11

Top 30 rankings per weightclass on the boxing Olympic rankings thread.

Right finally after many many hours and only three boxing sessions late but with every individual weight class in time of course these predictions are done. They better end up being accurate enough or I will be fuming. Honestly though with the number of entries if I hit over 50% we should be doing ok 60% would be great.

M63.5kg

Bracket 1

My pick- Somchay Wongsuwan (8) , Other contenders- Jose Viafara (5) , Jesus Cova (10) , Viliam Tanko (11) , Gianluigi Malanga (15) .

A very open draw here with some quality first round matchups Jesus Cova meets Viliam Tanko and Jose Viafara meets home boxer Gianluigi Malanga. The two south americans are both stong boxers but Malanga did beat Viafara back in 2021 and I think Tanko will get the better of Cova. Watch both of those picks be wrong. The winner of Tanko vs Cova will then face Somchay Wongsuwan. Wongsuwan is a talented boxer but picking him over 2022 Asian 67kg champion Bunjong Sinsiri is bizarre and could cost them a quota. The winner of that fight should then meet the victor of Malanga va Viafara in a "semi final" effectively for the quota. One of Bartlomiej Roskowicz (28) , Mizan Aykol (27)  or Saparmyrat Odajev (33)  will be the matchup in the qualifying fight but won't pose any threat. Honestly you could pick a number between 1 and 5 here to decide this. I'll reluctantly pick Wongsuwan but I don't know.

Bracket 2

My pick- Alexy de la Cruz (3) , Other contenders- Yuri Falcao (19) , Salvador Flores (17) , Assan Hansen (21) .

The draw would have struggled to be kinder to Alexy de la Cruz after he kind of butchered it against Miguel Ramirez  at Panams. His toughest fight may well be his first one against Yuri Falcao before fights against Obada al Kasbeh (29)  and then probably Joshua Tukamuhebwa (31) . In the other half of the bracket Salvador Flores fights Ali Qasim al Sarray (32)  and Assan Hansen faces Alexandru Paraschiv (24)  or Wang Xiangyang (NR) . Hansen and Flores should come through to set up a finely balanced "semi final". Neither are likely to push de la Cruz.

Bracket 3

My pick- Ruslan Abdullaev (1) , Other contenders- Radoslav Rosenov (4) , Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (7) .

This bracket will produce some good fights. At the top 2023 world champion Ruslan Abdullaev faces Shiva Thapa (25)  in his opening fight followed by a very easy fight and then likely meets Mirzokhid Imamnazarov (26)  in a "semi final". Meanwhile Radoslav Rosenov and new and improved Kazakh selection Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu who plugs a whole in what was by far their weakest men's weightclass meet in their respective second bouts. For me Rosenov edges out Bazarbay Uulu. Danylo Zamorylo (13)  or Aleksej Sendrik (22)  would then be next opposition ahead of meeting Abdullaev. Abdullaev may not be the favourite for gold in Paris but he is still a world class operator and should beat his opponent here.

Bracket 4

My pick- Erislandy Alverez (2) , Other contenders- Bakhodur Usmonov (6) , Emilio Garcia (9) .

60kg world silver medallist Erislandy Alvarez correctly gets selected over multi Olympic medallist Lazaro Alvarez  (no relation). He opens his account with a tough fight against Emilio Garcia before his toughest challenge against Bakhodur Usmonov in the following round provided Usmonov can beat the experienced Louis Richarno Colin (18) . Usmonov vs Alvarez could be one of the fights of the tournament but it is tough to pick against the Cuban. The other half of the bracket likely Tayfur Aliyev (12)  meet Tokyo featherweight bronze medallist Samuel Takyi (16)  with the winner likely facing Patris Mughalzai (14)  who replaces the injured Reese Lynch . Any of the three could come through but none are in the same tier as Alvarez or Usmonov. I'm going to guess Takyi ends up being Alvarez' quota match opponent

M92kg

Bracket 1

My pick- Lazizbek Mullojonov (1) , Other contenders- Georgi Kushitashvili (7) , Berat Acar (9) .

Mullojonov deserved to qualify at Asian games but has a tricky enough path to secure his quota here albeit he won't be tested at all until qualification is on the line. On the other side of the bracket we have two fascinating opening round fights with Georgii Kushitashvili who looks much more comfortable at 92kg than 80kg meeting Berat Acar and in form Vagkan Nanitzanian (14)  matching up with the one remaining unqualified Australian Adrian Paoletti (18) . Kushitashvili and Nanitzanian should be slight favourites and would then face Victor Schelstraete (22)  and Marko Calic (17)  respectively. If they come through those tests we would then get a rematch of the recent Strandja final which Kushitashvili won. Kushitashvili would be a tough opponent for Mullojonov but you would have to back Mullojonov's power.

Bracket 2

My pick- Enmanuel Reyes (2) , Other contenders- Loren Alfonso Dominguez (5) , Sadam Magomedov (11) .

An interestingly poised bracket with a heavyweight matchup between Enmanuel Reys and Loren Alfonso Dominguez two former Cubans competing against eachother for 2 countries that a very much not Cuba. Alfonso Domniguez does have to beat Yan Zak (23)  first who shockingly beat him at European games.  The winner would then face Carlos Rodriguez (15)  who could provide a tricky test. At the bottom of the bracket Experienced Sadam Magomedov faces Tyron Amo (24)  (who strangely is here ahead of Alexander Okafor ) followed by the winner of Erkin Adylbek Uulu (21) and 2022 86kg Asian champion Jakkapong Yomkhot (19) . If Magomedov does indeed come through Reyes has beaten him before. I trust Reyes to produce when it counts more than Alfonso Dominguez so I think he gets the quota here.

Bracket 3

My pick- Aibek Oralbay (6) , Other contenders- Narek Manasyan (3) , Julio Castillo (4) , Jamar Talley (8) .

A fascinatingly balanced draw with likely "semi finals" in Narek Manasyan vs Jamar Talley and Aybek Oralbay vs Julio Castillo with only Sanjeet (13)  who faces 2022 Asian champion Oralbay (who regains the Kazakh number 1 spot at this weightclass). Both of the above fights should be terrific but I think Manasyan will be slightly too good for the still inexperience Talley and Oralbay may deny Castillo this shot at a third Olympics. Oralbay vs Manasyan could then legitimately go either way but I'm going to pick Oralbay despite ranking him lower. 

Bracket 4

My pick- Marlon Hurtado (10) , Other contenders- Soheb Bouafia (12) , Patrick Brown (16) .

With so many quality fights above we were always going to end up with a lower quality bracket albeit one with still some interesting fights. Surprise British selection Patrick Brown has a very easy path to a quota fight. Marlon Hurtado has to go through Mateusz Bereznicki (20)  and Soheb Bouafia (12) . The young Colombian will be tested against Bouafia and Brown and may prove a misguided pick but I'm going to back the young boxer here.

Predictions part 3

W50,W57,M51,M71,M92+ on page 5

W54,W60 on page 9

Top 30 rankings per weightclass on the boxing Olympic rankings thread.

M57kg

Bracket 1

My pick- Makhmud Sabyrkhan (1) , Other contenders- Artur Bazeyan (5) , Umid Rustamov (9) , Asror Vokhidov (16) .

Really tough bracket to call. At the top Makhmud Sabyrkhan has a deceptively tough opening fight against African finalist Fikremariyam Leta (25)  before meeting Sarawet Sukthet (17)  who he beat in the 2023 Asian under 22 championship final. I don't understand why Sukthet got picked here ahead of Rujakron Juntrong . Artur Bazeyan should navigate his first couple of fights to set up a blockbuster of a "semi final" with Sabyrkhan. Umid Rustamov has struggled of late and will be sternly tested against Asror Vokhidov. I think Vokhidov might win that one. Either should pose a significant threat to the somewhat undersized Sabyrkhan but talent wise their should only be one winner. 

Bracket 2

My pick- Yilmar Gonzalez (4)  , Other contenders- Mohamed Abu Jajeh (8) , Jaroslaw Iwanow (13) , Batuhan Ciftci (20) , Jean Caicedo (21) .

The bottom half of this draw is where the action all is with a standout opening fight between Yilmar Gonzalez and Mohamed Abu Jajeh which could decide the quota. Jaroslaw Iwanow and the winner of the very evenly matched Batuhan Ciftci and Jean Caicedo would still stand between Gonzalez or Abu Jajeh and a qualifying fight. That fight though would be very easy though with Ping Lyu (23)  inexplicably on his way to another qualifying fight after he lucked his way into a semi final at Asian games.

Bracket 3

My pick- Carlo Paalam (3) , Other contenders- Jude Gallagher (6) , Mohamed Hussamuddin (7) .

This bracket is fascinatingly poised with Carlo Paalam starting as the slight favourite. His path to a qualifying fight sees him needing to beat the winner of Andrey Bonilla (22)  vs Murat Yildirim (19)  followed by probably Daniyal Shabaksh (10) or Yoel Finol (18)  although both are well capable of a surprise loss. Jude Gallagher has an annoying habbit of losing very tough opening round fights. He avoids that here by drawing Hichem Maouche (NR)  only to run into Mohamed Hussamuddin in the second round. I had a very tough time ranking Gallagher and Hussamuddin relative to eachother. They should have met at the commonwealth games but Hussamuddin suffered a shock semi final loss to Joseph Commey  who then withdrew to hand Gallagher the gold. Maybe I am biased but I think Gallagher wins this one. The winner will very likely go on to face Carlo Paalam and I'd be surprised if that fight had a unaminous winner.

Bracket 4

My pick- Luiz Oliveira (2) , Other contenders- Owain Harris-Allan (11) , Artyush Gomstyan (12) , Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (14) , Jose Luis de los Santos (15) .

Luiz Oliveira is the standout boxer here and should get Brazil's 10th quota for Paris. He does have an awkward first fight against Munarbek Seitbek Uulu. A second potential banana skin comes in his "semi final" against Artyush Gomstyan. The other half of the draw sees Owain Harris-Allan face Jose de los Santos. The Brits lucked into selecting their best boxer with Jack Dryden getting injured but the tenacious de los Santos who impressed at Panam games is a tricky opening fight. The winner should face Lucas Verthein Ferreira (24)  for a shot at beating Oliveira. Ferreira does have to be Oleh Chuliacheiev (30)  first and notably has beaten de los Santos before. Regardless I would expect Luiz Oliveira to qualify here without too much difficulty.

M80kg

Bracket 1

My pick- Aleksei Alfiorau (2) , Other contenders- Nurbek Oralbay (3) , Kelyn Cassidy (4) .

This bracket is absolutely stacked. 2021 world silver (Deserved to win gold) medallist Aleksei Alfiorau returns to the fray and will surely be one of the authorized neutral athletes from Belarus best shots at a medal at the Olympics. He has got a very tricky draw though meeting Shabbos Negmatulloev (31)  and Kevin Schumann (16)  before one of the fights of the tournament 2023 world champion Nurbek Oralbay who himself has to beat experienced pro Carlos Gongora (28) . My money is very tentatively on Alfiorau. Kelyn Cassidy does have to probably beat Rafayel Hovhannisyan (12)  or Keven Bausejour (20) and despite being the best boxer on his side of the draw I have concerns about his ability to put performances on top of eachother. Alfiorau and Cassidy met in the quarter final of the aforementioned 2021 worlds and I kind of hope Oralbay comes through as I think he may prove more vulnerable to Cassidy's counterpunching style. Whatever happens we should get 2 tremendous high quality fights here.

Bracket 2

My pick- Robby Gonzalez (6) , Other contenders- Weerapon Jongjoho (8) , Andrei Arodoaie (15) , Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (17) .

Robby Gonzalez has largely struggled since winning the world championships in 2021 but the draw has broken in his favour here. He is unlikely to be troubled at all until his qualification fight. On the other side of the bracket Weerapon Jongjoho has a tricky enough path facing either Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu or Georgi Gutsaev (20)  (who comes in for Georgi Kushitashvili who has moved up to 92kg) and likely Andrei Arodoaie. All three could beat Jongjoho. Regardless Gonzalez will be the favourite for the quota especially given his easy path up to that point.

Bracket 3

My pick- Turabek Khabibullaev (1) , Other contenders- Hussein Iashaish (7) , Yojerlin Cesar (9) .

Turabek Khabibullaev has avoided any of the major potential challengers and should book his spot at the games here. He does have a difficult opener against the experienced Hussein Iashash although he did beat him at Asian games. Yojerlin Cesar is the other major hurdle on the path to a quota although he himself has a tricky opener against Gebhard Ipinge (24) . Gazi Jalidov (13)  meets Juan Ortiz (18)  in the opening round on the other side of the bracket which may decide who faces Khabibullaev for the quota although Nikita Nystedt (26)  may cause a surprise assuming he beats Nuryagdy Nuryagdyev (NR) . Nuryagdyev isn't a threat or anything I just wanted to mention him because I think he has a cool name.

Bracket 4

My pick- Taylor Bevan (5) , Other contenders- Mindaugas Gediminas (10) , Pylyp Akilov (11) , Hector Aguirre (14) .

The draw has been kind to Taylor Bevan after he got the nod in a tough domestic selection battle ahead of Ramtin Musah  and George Crotty . He does have a tough opening fight against Pylyp Akilov before meeting likely either Mindaugas Gediminas or Abraham Buonnarigo (19) . Hector Aguirre has limited international experience but may well prove capable of beating either Meysam Gheshlaghi (30)  or Chahar Lakshya (25)  and either Gradus Kraus (22)  (Don't be fooled by his IBA champions night results.) or Kristyan Nikolov (27) . Bevan is the standout boxer here though and should win the quota.

Predictions- Part 2 (W50,W57,M51,M71,M92+ on page 5)

W60KG

Only three quotas here but I will stick with the same format as the other ones and pick the four semi-finalists and then predict who misses out at the end.

Bracket 1

My pick- Rimma Volossenko (3) , Other contenders- Miroslava Jedinakova (10) , Camila Pineiro (14) .

The draw has been kind to Rimma Volossenko and she should make the semi finals here. Her first couple of fights are very easy before meeting Camila Pinerio in her third fight. 2022 63kg European under 22 champion Miroslava Jedinakova should be waiting in a quarter final provided she beats Hanna Okhrei (19) . Jedinakova is an tricky opponent and I wouldn't rule out an upset here.

Bracket 2

My pick- Oh Yeon-ji (2) , Other contenders- Krisandy Rios (6) , Chelsey Heijnen (15) .

Interesting opening round fight here between Krisandy Rios and Riza Pasuit (18) . Should be prove a good test for Rios before meeting former Asian champion Oh Yeonji in the last 16. Oh has the pedigree to cruise to a quota here but her recent form has been a bit dodgy. If she can come through against Rios then the winner of Laura Akram (29)vs Anna Jenni (17)  who are both capable boxers. Chelsey Heijnen should cruise through her first couple of fights but has struggled with consistency of late. I think Oh will come through here but both Rios and Heijnen could push her close.

Bracket 3

My pick- Agnes Alexiusson (4) , Other contenders- Alesia Mesiano (7) , Elida Kocharyan (8) , Jaismine (9) .

Not the strongest bracket but should throw up some fascinating fights as a result. The closest fight will likely be Agnes Alexiusson vs Alesia Mesiano in the last 32 although Alexiusson does need to beat Kiria Tapia (21)  first. I'd give the slight edge to Alexiusson but stylistically they are quite similar and this is the type of fight that home advantage could proves crucial. The winner will then face Elida Kocharyan which should also be a close fight. The top half of the bracket sees an opening fight between Jaismine and Ayaka Taguchi (13) with Sara Beram (12)  awaiting the winner. I don't know which of the three will come through but after a test against Loredana Marin (24) , they would then face a quarter final against Alexiusson, Mesiano or Kocharyan. There are too many evenly matched boxers in this bracket so not a chance do I get this one right but for me Alexiusson is the most talented.

Bracket 4

My pick- Shona Whitwell (1) , Other contenders- Donjeta Sadiku (5) ,Lenka Bernardova (11) .

European heavy final bracket with the marquee matchup being Donjeta Sadiku against Whitwell. These two also matched up in their opening fight at European games and I picked Whitwell. Sadiku won a split on that occasion but I'm stubborn so I'm picking Whitwell again.  The winner should reach the quarter finals. 2022 European silver medallist Lenka Bernardova has a challenging path to be the other half of that quarter final with fights against Felicitas Ganglbauer (22) and the one of Sheila Martinez (20)  and Raykhona Kodirova (16) .

Quota Fights

Rimma Vollosenko vs Oh Yeon-ji,

Agnes Alexiusson vs Shona Whitwell.

There is no way these four end up being right but for me Oh should win if she gets this far and Whitwell is slightly more talented than Alexiusson. Vollosenko has multiple wins against Alexiusson in the past so I guess have the quotas as Oh Yeon-ji (2) , Shona Whitwell (1) and Rimma Vollosenko (3) . However there isn't much between the top 10 or so boxers here and a different set of matchups could lead to very different results. 

W54kg

Bracket 2

My pick- Sara Cirkovic (8) , Other contenders- Jennifer Lehane (4) , Zhaina Shekerbekova (5) , Romane Moulai (10) , Scarlett Delgado (12) .

I've mentioned before how the top 20 or so bantamweights in the world are all of a very similar standard and we see that manifested straight off the bat. Romane Moulai comes into the French squad and has a very tough fight against Jennifer Lehane. I would expect Lehane to win but Sara Cirkovic awaits the winner in the next round. Lehane beat Cirkovic on a 3-2 split at Europeans but Cirkovic has added a European under 22 title to her 2022 youth world championship. 2022 Asian champion Zhaina Shekerbekova meets the winner in what also should be a standout fight. Scarlett Delgado should be waiting in the qualifying fight as long as she can beat Sara Svennson (21)  in her opening fight. There is very little between Lehane, Cirkovic and Shekerbekova but I'm going to pick the youth to come through.

Bracket 2

My pick- Jutamas Jitpong (2) , Other contenders- Johana Gomez (9) , Shera Mae Patricio (13) , Sofia Robles (14) .

This one really shouldn't be in doubt. Jutamas Jitpong should be far too good for the various Americas heavy opposition that stands between her and the Olympics. Her first fight is against Johana Gomez who she beat at world champs last year. Former kickboxer Claudine Veloso (20) or Mikoto Harada (17)  then await before a qualifying fight against Sofia Robles, Shera Mae Patricio or Asya Ari (23) . 

Bracket 3

My pick- Hsiao Wen Huang (1) , Other contenders- Sirine Charaabi (6) , Sandra Drabik (7) .

World champion Hsiao Wen Huang looks to right the wrongs of a very controversial exit to Yuan Chang  at Asian games. Draw could have been kinder but she is unlikely to be challenged by Denisse Bravo (29) or whichever she meets of Melissa Mortenson (15)  or Im Aeji (22) . The other side of the bracket sees a highlight matchup between Sandra Drabik and Sirine Charaabi. Drabik comes into this competition with impressive early 2024 form but lost to Charaabi last November albeit that fight was in Italy, then again of course so will this one. Marta Lopez del Arbol (16)  would then stand between them and a qualifying fight. Drabik is more talented and more likely to beat Huang but Charaabi is at home and I can feel like will win again here. I can't see her beating Huang though.

Bracket 4

My pick- Anastasia Kovalchuk (3) , Other contenders- Thi Kim Anh Vo (11) .

Anastasia Kovalchuk has struggles since winning 2022 Europeans but has got as good a draw as she could have asked for. She won't be challenged at all until a qualifying fight almost certainly against Thi Kim Anh Vo provided Vo can beat Estefani Almanzar (18) .

Right, Updated top 30 in each event who are competing at the first world qualifying tournament. You can assume that their position relative to the already qualified boxers is unchanged (although there are a few I would change). Apologies for the weird order but startlists came out late so still updating as the competition starts in some weightclasses.

M92+kg

Bracket 3

My pick- Fernando Arzola (2) , Other contenders- Danabieke Bayikewuzi (4) , Omar Shiha (12) .

This one should be fairly clear cut. Arzola has an awkward opening fight against Diarga Balde (16)  before facing his main rival for the quota Danabieke Bayikewuzi. He beat Bayikewuzi comfortably at worlds last year. Meanwhile Omar Shiha just has to come through against Mohamed Firisse (30) , Muhammad Abroridinov (27)  and probably Thomas Mboua (28) . Shiha occasionally springs a surprise but this is very much Arzola's to lose.

Bracket 4

My pick- Davit Chaloyan (6) , Other contenders- Djamili Aboudou Moindze (7) , Yordan Hernandez (9) .

This is a close one. Davit Chaloyan has a very simple path to a qualifying fight with just Gerlon Congo (18)  in his path. Djamili Aboudou Moindze has a tougher route needing to beat Yordan Hernandez and one of Iman Ramazenpour (25)  or Keddy Agnes (19) . Chaloyan beat Aboudou Moindze when they met in 2022 although their recent form is pretty similar. This one could go either way.

W51kg

Bracket 1

My pick- Alua Balkibekova (6) , Other Contenders- Maxi Kloetzer (15) , Anush Grigoryan (16) .

The draw has really opened up for Alua Balkibekova who gets picked ahead of Nazym Kyzaibay . She has a bye before likely facing Aylin Jamez (27)  followed by Anush Grigoryan or the unknown Jung Joo-Hyung (20) . Maxi Kloetzer should await in a qualifying fight with her toughest test being either against Rita Soares  (25)  or Guo Yi Xuan  (23) neither of which should cause her any trouble.

Bracket 2

My pick- Thi Tham Nguyen (1) , Other Contenders- Sabina Bobokulova (3) , Daina Moorehouse (4) , Rinka Kinoshita (8), Aldana Florencia Lopez (12) , Savannah Stubley (13) .

By far the toughest bracket and a difficult one to call Thi Tham Nguyen meets Daina Moorehouse in what should be one of the most interesting fights in the division. The winner gets rewarded with a fight against Tayonis Cedeno (19)  before another mouthwatering matchup with Sabina Bobokulova who recently won Strandja beating Asian champion Wu Yu  and world champion Nikhat Zareen  albeit both on questionable split decisions. I have no idea which of Nguyen, Moorehouse or Bobokulova will come through. The other side of the draw isn't easy either Aldana Florencia Lopez has a rematch from panam games with Ingrid Gomez (17)  while Rinka Kinoshita who moves down from bantamweight to replace the presumably injured Tsukimi Namiki has a straightforward fight against Nicole Durikova before another interesting fight against Savannah Stubley who regains her spot as the top British flyweight. Its unlikely that Stubley, Kinoshita or Lopez will beat whoever comes through the top half but it still should be a quality decider.

Bracket 3

My pick- Tetiana Kob (5) , Other contenders- Zlatislava Chukanova (10) , Aira Villegas (11) .

The draw has been fairly kind to the uber experienced former European champion Tetiana Kob. Her first fight against Zlatislava Chukanova may prove her toughest fight with Nina Radovanovic (14)  likely waiting in effectively a semi final. Aira Villegas meanwhile has to navigate fights against Mckenzie Wright (22)  and probably Sofie Rosshaug (21). She comes into the tournament in good form with a couple of impressive wins at the BOXAM tournament in Spain in January but is still unlikely to beat Kob.

Bracket 4

My pick- Natalia Kuczewska (7) , Other contenders- Ingrit Valencia Victoria (2), Pihla Kaivo-Oja (9) .

An interesting youth vs experience battle in the fourth bracket. Multi-time world medallist Ingrit Valencia Victoria gets a favourable but far from guaranteed draw which sees her face Antonia Giannakopoulou (28)  before a battle with the inconsistent Pihla Kaivo-Oja. Susan Aguas (18)  provides the penultimate test before a qualifying fight against Natalia Kuczewska who faces a whole lot of nothing on her side of the bracket. Kuczewska is very inexperienced but has produced some impressive wins of late and absolutely is capable of beating Valencia. I am going to back the underdog here.

W57kg

Only the top two to qualify here so just 2 brackets instead of 4. It is strange that there are 2 quotas here and 4 at the second one. They could just have added the host quota that France didn't need here instead of at the second qualifying tournament. Additionally, with the exception of Tokyo silver medallist Nesthy Petecio  all of the top boxers in the world have already qualified so the field isn't very strong here.

Bracket 1

My pick- Nesthy Petecio (1) , Other contenders- Jennifer Fernandez (2) , Elis Glynn (3) , Xu Zichun (5) , Maud Van der Toorn (7) .

Unfortunately a very uneven draw between the top and bottom brackets. The top half of this bracket sees Nesthy Petecio have a couple of straightforward fights against Andela Brankovic (25)  and Claudia Nechita (15)  before a "semi final" against the winner of Jennifer Fernandez an 2022 60kg youth world champion Maud Van der Toorn. The bottom half of the top bracket sees a couple of intersting fights with 60kg Olympian Esra Yildiz (10)  facing former bantamweight Bojana Gojkovic (8)  with the winner meeting Preedakmon Tintabthai (18) . Elise Glynn will have an interesting fight against Xu Zichun provided Xu can beat Nikolina Cacic (14) . Petecio should be a level above all of her opposition here.

Bracket 2

My pick- Julia Szerezmeta (4) , Other contenders- Vilma Viitanenen (6) , Satsuki Yoshizawa (9) , Marie Al-Ahmadieh (12) , Alyssa Mendoza (13) .

The second half of this draw is much weaker than the first but still some interesting fights. Julia Szerezmeta should at least reach a "semi final" with just the young Anastasia Molochko (11)  in her path. There she will likely meet Vilma Viitanen provided Viitanen can beat Sitora Turdibekova (17)  and Szabina Szucs (19) . The bottom half of this bracket sees an interesting early fight between Satsuki Yoshizawa and Alyssa Mendoza before a likely "semi final" for the winner against Marie Al-Ahmadieh provided she can navigate the awkward Olga Papadatou (16) . On paper this will come down to the Szeremeta vs Viitanen fight which Szeremeta took on a split decision at Europeans but any of Yoshizawa, Al-Ahmadieh or Mendoza could pose a threat in the qualifying matchup.

Right, let's have a go at predicting these. The lack of a stream and some tough Irish draws have dampened my excitement for this competition considerably but sure look. I'll post an updated rankings for the top 30 per weightclass who are competing here and I'll include where I rank each boxer in my analysis. This is the first big test of their accuracy as well.

Draws here are unseeded like the other qualifying competitions and the competition ends in every weightclass once qualification has been decided so with the exception of W57kg and W60kg there are effectively four separate competitions for a quota spot in each weightclass.

Obviously majority of countries are here but some exceptions include Mongolia, North Korea and DR Congo.

Also going to have to do this in multiple parts based on which weightclasses start on day one because doing these in one night is tough. (Also the 75 emoji limit is giving me trouble)

M51kg

Bracket 1

My pick- Tomoya Tsuboi (3) , Other contenders- Yuberjen Martinez (6) , Alejandro Claro (12) , Ari Bonilla (13) .

I'm not the biggest fan of Tomoya Tsuboi's style but he should start as the favourite for the quota here against a very Americas heavy bracket. He has  a straightforward first fight before a likely clash of styles with the front foot Yuberjen Martinez provided Martinez beat Keymberth Gonzalez (32) . The other side of the bracket sees a couple of potentially intriguing (quarter finals) with Alejandro Claro Fis likely meeting Omid Ahmadisafa (22)  who has a couple of impressive wins on his resume and 2022 youth world champion Ari Bonilla meeting Luis Delgado (26) . Claro should come through though which would set up a fight with Tsuboi for the Olympic quota in a fight I wouldn't expect to be a classic.

Bracket 2

My pick- Roscoe Hill (2) , Other contender- Deepak Bhoria (4).

Some interesting fights here but this will almost certainly end up being Hill vs Deepak for the quota. Deepak has the tougher path meeting Nijat Huseynov (19) , Sakhil Alekhverdovi (16)  and Rudolf Garboyan (21) although he should be comfortably too good for all of them. Hill won't be tested until his third fight against Jiamao Zhang (17) . Hill vs Deepak should a tremendous fight and will be one of the few we will actually get to watch. I lean towards Hill but it will almost certainly be very close.

Bracket 3

My pick- Martin Molina (5) , Other contenders- Po Wei Tu (11) , Kim In-Kyu (15) , Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (18) , Dmytro Zamotayev (14) .

I know I have him pretty high in my rankings but I didn't really expect to be picking Martin Molina for a quota here and despite his favourable draw, I still wouldn't entirely trust him. He has a straightforward opening fight before meeting Kim In-Kyu who seemingly hasn't boxed internationally since 2021 but had some impressive results in the previous Olympic cycle. Po Wei Tu should then await in effectively a semi final as long as he can beat Theophilus Allotey (33) . The bottom half of the draw sees Ramon Nicanor Quiroga and Dmytro Zamotayev have to navigate tough early fights against Nurzhigit Diushebaev (28)  and Juanma Lopez (27)  respectively. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here, not sure who it is coming from though.

Bracket 4

My pick- Saken Bibossinov (1) , Other contenders- Kiaran MacDonald (7) , Federico Serra (8) , Roger Ladon (9) , Istvan Szaka (10) .

Well after a couple of lighter draws, that was going to leave some serious talent in the bottom bracket. There are two heavyweight first round fights with Kiaran MacDonald meeting Istvan Szaka and Federico Serra meeting Roger Ladon. The respective winners then have a slightly more straightforward fight before meeting eachother. Serra has had a couple of big wins since losing in a quota fight to Samet Gumus  at European games and being at home might be the slight favourite to come through but MacDonald did beat him at 2022 Europeans. Meanwhile Bibbosinov shouldn't have much trouble reaching the quota fight with his toughest fight likely to be against the winner of Cosmin Girleanu (19)  vs Azat Makhmetov (23) . The 2022 world champion should book his Olympic spot here but he will be tested whoever he ends up meeting in the quota fight.

M71kg

Bracket 1

My pick- Aidan Walsh (4) , Other contenders- Wanderson de Oliveira (9) , Rami Kiwan (14).

Ah the extremely rare last 128 fights, Draw sheet doesn't even fit on one page. Anyway, the one draw where things broke nicely for the Irish boxers. There isn't a ton to say here world bronze medallist Wanderson and Olympic bronze medallist Aidan Walsh meet in their second fight. Whoever wins becomes the massive favourite for the quota and should cruise to a qualifying fight. Rami Kiwan meets Merven Clair (24)  and the winner of that should end up facing Syrgak Abdyzhapar Uulu (25) in a semi final before probably losing to Walsh or Wanderson. I am pretty confident Aidan Walsh should come through to win here. 

Bracket 2

My pick- Yurii Zakhareiev (1) , Other contenders- Asadkhuja Muydhinkhujaev (3) , Zeyad Eashash (7) , Magomed Schachidov (8) .

This is a tricky bracket with two world champions. 2023 world champion at 67kg Asadkhuja Muydhinkhujaev (although there was a bit of a question mark over whether he should be selected ahead of Khavasbek Asadullaev ) starts off with a straightforward fight but will be severely tested against Magomed Schachidov in his second fight. Yurii Zakhareiev meanwhile also has an interesting second fight against either Rattapol Kadamduan (23)  or Alexander Rangel (27)  who are both unknown quantities. Muydhinkhujaev and Zakhareiev (jesus, they  couldn't have made their names much trickier to type could they?) would then meet in a "semi final". The bottom half of the draw sees Zeyad Eashash have the navigate a couple of tough fights against former Russian Shokhobzhon Shukurov (30)  and the winner of Bruno Fernandes de Barros (22)  vs Ronald Chavez Jr (32) . Navigating tricky but winnable fights is not something Eashash always manages to do. He would then face Jorge Cuellar (11)  who doesn't really pose the threat that typically accompanies a Cuban flag. Eashash could easily lose his first fight or beat one of the world champions and pick up the quota. I think a still improving Zakhareiev is the horse to back here.

Bracket 3

My pick- Aslanbek Shymbergenov (2) , Other contenders- Damian Durkacz (10) .

I am skeptical about 2023 world champion Aslanbek Shymbergenov's medal prospects for the Olympics but the draw was kind to him and even if it wasn't he should still qualify. His toughest fight will likely be his second one against Damian Durkacz  who has an ability box up and well also down to the quality of his opponent. Durkacz does have to navigate an opening fight against Angel Llanos (17) . Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (15)  likely awaits Shymbergenov if Nurmuhammedov can beat Virgilio de los Santos (33) . The bottom half of the bracket should see an interesting "semi final" between Sarkhan Aliyev (13)  and Sergio Martinez (21)  although Aliyev does have to beat Junior Petanqui (20)  to get that far.

Bracket 4

My pick- Nishant Dev (6) , Other contenders- Omari Jones (5) , Lewis Richardson (12) .

Omari Jones has a fairly straightforward path to a qualifying fight with just his opening bout against Tokyo Olympian Aliaksandr Radzionau (19)  who is one of just 2 Belarussian neutral athletes here. There he should face the winner of Nishant Dev vs 2022 European 75kg silver medallist Lewis Richardson. Richardson came somewhat out of nowhere to get the British spot ahead of Harris Akbar and Garan Croft. I have Omari Jones ahead of Nishant in my rankings but I feel like stylistically this fight suits Nishant so I'm going to pick him.

M92+kg

Bracket 1

My pick- Ayoub Ghadfa el Drissi (3)  , Other contenders- Danis Latypov (10) , Diego Lenzi (11) , Ali Feliz (15) .

The draw kind of opened of for Ayoub Ghadfa to make his second Olympics. His "semi final" fight against home and in form Diego Lenzi should be interesting. On the other side of the bracket should see American based Ali Feliz face off against Danis Latypov provided Feliz can come through against the inexperienced Martin McDonagh (22). There isn't all that much between Ghadfa, Latypov and Lenzi.

Bracket 2

My pick- Luka Pratljacic (5) , Other contenders-  Nelvie Tiafack (1) , Christian Salcedo (8) .

This is a pretty tough bracket. Dusan Veletic (14)  faces off against Christian Salcedo in a fight that will test the Colombian. He should make it through his subsequent fight to set up a "semi final" against the winner of Luka Pratljacic (who impressively beat Marko Milun  to get selected) and Dmytro Lovchynskyi (13). Meanwhile former European champion Nelvie Tiafack was somewhat fortunate to keep his spot in the German selection ahead of the up and coming Nikita Putilov  (for me they should have picked Putilov). His toughest fight before the qualifying fight is likely to be against Narender Berwal  (17). Tiafack's recent form has not been great so I'm going to pick Pratljacic here although I certainly would not rule out Salcedo.

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow:

• Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals

Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*".

Men's Tournament

Third-Place Match

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 17th 2023, h. 16:00	Spain	1		France

Final

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 17th 2023, h. 17:30	Italy	1		Croatia

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow:

• Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals

Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*".

Women's Tournament

Third-Place Match

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 16th 2023, h. 16:00	Spain	2*		Greece

Final

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 16th 2023, h. 17:30	United States	2		Hungary

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow:

• Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals

Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*".

Men's Tournament

Semifinals

Date & Time (GMT +3)	Nation 1	T1	T2	Nation 2
February 15th 2023, h. 16:00	Spain	1		Italy
February 15th 2023, h. 17:30	Croatia		1	France