[OlympicsFan 783]

On 16.4.2016 at 6:49 AM, Gianlu33 said:

Joao Gomez was the ex doped? Or He was another people?

I think Cielo, De Paula and Santos also have been caught before. De Paul made the team, but i am not sure if Cielo and Santos also will be on the team. It would be really funny if Brazil would compete with 4 cheater in Rio, even Russia will have less cheaters on the team.

[OlympicsFan 783]

6 hours ago, uk12points said:

Wow, your analysis is amazing. I agree with you about the overall results, they are dissapointing, but I think the selectors have made it clear over the years that if you are close enough you will qualify, therefore many athletes won't have peaked and swam similar times to the Aussies in their trials. Honestly, I doubt there will be many suprises when the team is revealed, and most people on your list will probably be on the plane to Belo Horizonte (the Gb training camp). One positive sign is that people seem to be saving themselves for Rio, building their season steadily with 1 ultimae goal, the Olympics.

 

I agree with your medal predictions but a lot will rely on how well the Aussies and Americans perform on the big stage and whether China up their game as to how many medals we can achieve. The traget for all sports is to equal/beat London 2012 and with 3 medals in London swimming should exceed London 2012 and help to compensate for the anticipated loss of medals in Cycling. Overall I would rather have a rubbish trials and a brilliant games than the other way round, if they put in the effort from here we could have some fantastic results come Rio 2016.

Its very well possible that Guy, Peaty, SMOC, CWH, Carlin or Halsall will perform better at the olympics. They knew that no one would be able to beat them at the trials and that they would come very close to the standard, so they didnt need to be at 100%. On the other hand athletes like Shuttleworth, Tutton or Litchfield might have peaked for this and they might be slower in Rio. I think Australia has shown at the last world championships that they learned how to perform at their best when it matters. I see at least 8 gold medals for Australia, USA will be clearly better than last year. I think 3 medals should be safe for you (2 x Guy + Peaty). All your other medal contenders will have to perform at their best for a medal. Carlin (Ledecky, Boyle, Ashwood, Van Rouwendaal, McLean), Halsall (C. Campbell, B. Campbell, Kromowidjojo, Sjöstrom), your mens 800 free relay (Australia, USA and France) and SMOC (Hosszu, Watanabe, DiRado) all have at least 3 very strong opponents. I think you can be very optimistic that you will win at least 4 medals. I think your goal of winning as many medals as in 2012 is extremely optimistic, i think you should be happy with 50 medals overall and i would really like to hear how you want to win more than 60 medals?

[OlympicsFan 783]

Womens 50 free: I expected at least 24.3 from Halsall, i thought she would win bronze in Rio, but now i am not so sure anymore, both Campbell sisters, Sjöstrom and Kromowidjojo should be ahead of her.

My prediction: Halsall will reach the final but not finish better than 5th.

Womens 100 free: No sub 54 time, i wouldnt nominate a 400 free relay, so no prediction needed.

Womens 200 free: Disappointing times overall, especially for Carlin, only one girl sub 1:58. Great time from Coates.

My prediction: I think Carlin should focus on 400/800 free. Your relay could reach the final, i think your federation should allow Coates to compete in the individual event.

Womens 400 free: The best race for Carlin, but also a bit slower than expected.

My prediction: Carlin will fight against Ahwood, Van Rouwendaal, Boyle and maybe the second american girl for silver and bronze.

Womens 800 free: Extremely disappointing time from Carlin, i dont see how she wants to challenge for a medal in Rio.

My prediction: Carlin reaches the final, but wont win a medal.

Womens 100 breast: Good time from SMOC, disappointing time from Tutton and Renshaw, no girl sub 1:07.

My prediction: SMOC should focus on 200 IM and maybe 200 free. Renshaw and Tutton should focus on 200 breast, so no british girl in womens 100 breast.

Womens 200 breast: Great times from Tutton and Renshaw, both have to be safed.

My prediction: Both british girls could reach the final and Tutton might have a tiny chance for a medal.

Womens 100 fly: One of the most disappointing events, no girl should be nominated. I dont think that your medley relay could come close to a medal, so i wouldnt safe anyone for the medley relay only.

My prediction: No british girl in womens 100 fly.

Womens 200 fly: Great time from Large, but not a very good winning time, i still think that Lowe should be safed.

My prediction: Lowe will reach the semifinal.

Womens 100 back: Great time from Davies, but pretty slow from all other girls.

My prediction: Davies will reach the final, but no chance for a medal.

Womens 200 IM: Very solid time from SMOC, the rest about as fast as expected.

My prediction: SMOC will win a minor medal in Rio with sub 2:09.

Womens 400 IM: Good times from Miley and Willmott. Especially Rudin was very disappointing.

My preciction: Both reach the final, but probably no medal. Willmott might have a very small chance for bronze.

 

Disappointing times: Mens fly/back/IM, womens fly, womens 200 back, womens 100 breast, womens 50/100/200/800 free

Ok/as good as expected times: Mens breast, mens free, womens 400 free, womens IM

Good/better than expected times: Womens 200 breast, womens 100 back

 

My medal predictions:

Gold for Peaty and Guy (200 free)

Good chance for silver or bronze for Guy (400 free), Carlin (400 free), SMOC (200 IM), mens 800 free relay

Small chance for silver or bronze for Proud (50 free), mens medley relay (very small chance), Willis (200 breast), Halsall (50 free), Carlin (800 free), Tutton (200 breast), Willmott (400 IM)

I think overall 6 medals and two of them in gold would be a realistic goal for british swimming in Rio.

 

[OlympicsFan 783]

55 minutes ago, uk12points said:

Automatic Qualifiers (100% going to Rio 2016): 

• James Guy, 400 freestyle, 200 freestyle
• Adam Peaty, 100 breaststroke
• Hannah Miley, 400 IM
• Max Litchfield, 400 IM
• Andrew Willis, 200 breaststroke
• Jazmin Carlin, 400 freestyle
• Siobhan-Marie O’Connor, 200 IM
• Ben Proud, 50 freestyle

Possible Consideration (1st or 2nd place and within 2% of consideration standard):

• Ross Murdoch, 100 breaststroke
• Stephen Milne, 400 freestyle
• Aimee Willmott, 400 IM
• Georgia Davies, 100 back
• Chloe Tutton, 200 breast
• Molly Renshaw, 200 breast
• Fran Halsall, 50 freestyle
• Craig Benson, 200 breaststroke
• Timothy Shuttleworth, 1500 freestyle

Relay athletes:

• Men's 4x100m Freestyle - Duncan Scott, Ben Proud, Adam Barrett, James Disney-May
• Men's 4x200m Freestyle - James Guy, Stephen Milne, Robert Renwick, Duncan Scott
• Men's 4x100m Medley - James Guy, Chris Walker-Hebborn, Adam Peaty, Duncan Scott
• Women's 4x200m Freestyle - Jazmin Carlin, Eleanor Faulkner, Georgia Coates, Camilla Hattersley
• Women's 4x100m Medley - Alys Thomas, Georgia Davies, Siobhan Marie O'Connor, Siobhan Marie O'Connor (Fran Halsall)

 

This is just a projection and we will have to wait a couple of weeks to find out the official team. The only 100% qualifiers are the first 8 athletes.

Overall disappointing results in my opinion.

 

Mens 50 free: Good time for Proud, but i dont think he can challenge for a medal in Rio and he was faster in the prelims ...

My prediction: Proud will finish 5th in Rio.

Mens 100 free: Great time for Scott, but a bit disappointing for Proud, no other guys sub 49. I wouldnt nominate Barrett and Disney-May for the relay only. I think it would be pretty hard for the 400 free relay to reach the final.

My prediction: Your relay wont reach the final, but i can see Scott surprising everyone to reach the final. On paper the final should consist of McEvoy, Chalmers, Stravius, Mignon, Adrian, Zetao, Condorelli and Morozov. In my opinion there are about 20 guys who could reach the final, i think no other event has the same depth.

Mens 200 free: Great time for Guy, he will swim sub 1:45 in Rio, also amazing time for Scott, but only one guy sub 1:47 ...

My prediction: I dont think that you can beat the australian 800 free relay, USA and France also might be dangerous. I am pretty sure that you will win silver or bronze.

Mens 400 free: Another great time for Guy, but the rest was pretty disappointing.

My prediction: Safe medal for Guy, but i dont see him beating Yang or Horton.

Mens 1500 free: Insane improvement from Shuttleworth, but no one sub 14:55 and only one other guy (barely) sub 15:00.

My prediction: No chance for a medal, but both guys could reach the final. On paper the final should consist of Yang, Paltrinieri, Detti, 2 american guys, 2 australian guys and Akram.

Mens 100 breast: Good time for Peaty, but clearly slower than last year, pretty disappointing time for Murdoch.

My prediction: Gold for Peaty, silver for Van der Burgh, bronze is pretty open, Murdoch will at least finish 8th.

Mens 200 breast: Great time for Willis, but no one else sub 2:09 ...

My prediction: I dont see a medal for GB in Rio, but both guys could reach the final.

Mens 100 fly: Even weaker than expected, no one sub 52.

My prediction: No final for GB in Rio and this might cost you a medley relay.

Mens 200 fly: As slow as expected, no qualified athlete, so no prediction needed.

Mens 100 back: Very disappointing times from CWH and Tancock, very bad news for your medley relay.

My prediction: CWH will still reach the final, but no chance for a medal.

Mens 200 back: Disappointing time from Greenbank, but i still think that he should be nominated.

My prediction: Greenbank will reach the semifinal.

Mens 200 IM: Might have been the most disappointing event, no one sub 1:59.

My prediction: No final for GB in Rio. I think only Litchfield should be nominated for this event, because he will be in Rio for the 400 IM anyway ...

Mens 400 IM: Finally some improvement from Litchfield, the rest was very disappointing.

My prediction: This event has been pretty weak recently, Litchfield might reach the final.

 

I wouldnt nominate the following athletes from your list: Disney-May, Barrett, Thomas and maybe Faulkner/Hattersley.

 

Edited April 18, 2016 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 hour ago, james89 said:

 

Ryan Cochrane won medals in those events at last year's world championship. Even though his times from the trials may not sound like a winning times, he is known to perform at key events. He is certainly a contender for medals in both events and clearly does have a chance. 

And thats CLEARLY only your opinion and not a fact. Cochrane wont win a medal unless the following happens:

400 free: Yang, Guy or Horton drown/get caught before Rio

1500 free: Yang, Horton, Paltrinieri, Detti, Jaeger drown/get caught before Rio

It would be an amazing result for Cochrane to reach the final in both events. I believe in the old man, he can do it!

 

Edited April 11, 2016 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

I think Canada could potentially win 5 medals.

Mens 400/1500 free: No chance

Mens open water: Very small chance

Mens 100 free: McEvoy, 1 or 2 french guys, Chalmers, Zetao, Adrian

Womens 100 free: Sjöstrom, 2 x Campbell, Kromowidjojo

Womens 400/800 free: Ashwood, Carlin, Ledecky and Van Rouwendaal are all better than McLean

Womens 100 back: Nielsen, Seebohm and Wilson are the clear favorites, maybe Franklin can challenge for a medal

Womens 200 back: Seebohm, Hosszu, Franklin and probably the second australian girl

Womens 200 breast: Maybe a small chance, but 2 japanese girls + Solnceva + Pedersen + 1 or 2 american girls should win the medals

Womens 100 fly: I bet on Sjöstrom, Ottesen and either the chinese girl or one of the australian/american girls

Womens 200 IM: Hosszu, SMOC and one of the american girls

Womens 400 IM: Hosszu, 2 british girls, 1 or 2 american girls, Belmonte

Womens 4 x 100 free: Australia, USA, China and Netherlands

Womens 4 x 100 medley relay: USA, Australia and China

 

I think Canada's best chances are mens 100 free, womens 100 back, womens 100 fly, womens 400 IM and womens medley relay. 5 medals would be an amazing result for Canada, but i dont see any gold medal:

Condorelli (bronze), Oleksiak (silver or bronze), Masse (bronze), Overholt (silver or bronze) and womens medley relay (bronze).

It should be pretty hard for all canadian athletes to repeat their times in Rio. Countries like USA, China or GB often overperform at olympic games, so i wouldnt be surprised if those nations clearly raise their level in Rio.

 

 

[OlympicsFan 783]

I am absolutely not surprised about those sick times in Australia, everyone knew that it would happen after they hired the dutch coach.

Considering the recent doping case of Kylie Palmer, no one can trust australian swimmers. Swimming is at least as dirty as athletics and cycling.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Some really important news:

Agnel (France) will be allowed to defend his olympic title in mens 200 free, Pothain "gave" up his spot.

Park (South Korea) probably wont be allowed by his federation to compete in Rio, because he was caught doping last year. 

Edited April 7, 2016 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

If we do this for all nations, then we have at least 4 or 5 posts for every nation just to name the qualified athletes, so we will end up with more than 50 posts that are just about naming the qualified athletes. There is no need to post the names of the qualified athletes immediately after the end of each session, because everyone who cares will look it up and discuss about it on swimming websites like Swimswam, all other people will have no problem to wait until the end of the event to know the names of the qualified athletes. Of course i cant tell you what to do, but if other people follow your example, then we will end up with tons of comments in the swimming/athletics thread that basically have no value, because you couldve said the same with just one comment. 

Edited April 6, 2016 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

@JoshMartini007 and Near:

Do you guys plan to update the qualifier list every day? I think most (non-canadian) people dont really care about those results (and if they care, they can look it up on other sites like Swimswam), so why not wait until the end of the canadian trials to post the names of all the qualified athletes?

Edited April 6, 2016 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

54 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

As long as he qualifies for the 50 free, which is his event, I see no problem  

 

Really? He wont be able to swim the individual mens 100 free, although many people saw him as a gold medal contender. I think this is quite a big upset. On the other hand he will probably win 2 gold medals, so this wont hurt him too much. I think that athletes like Grangeon, Santamans or Joly all will be selected in the end, so no need for all the stress, in addition to that many athletes will be selected for the relays, so France will probably have about 20 athletes in swimming at the olympics.

[OlympicsFan 783]

5 hours ago, Guest said:

 

phhh .. I'm sure that if instead Efimova would be a German swimmer, you'd like it very much

Why should i like it if a german athlete gets caught for the 2nd time and probably will be banned for ever?

She wouldve had a good chance for 2 medals in Rio, so i would be pretty sad if she would be a german athlete.

I think there is no doubt that she deserves to get banned, she has been caught two times at just 23 years of age, so she obviously doesnt want to play fair. The same is true for Kulizhnikov. I am really surprised how stupid/careless many russian athletes seem to be. I dont think that german athletes are necessarily "cleaner", but at least they hide it better ...

Its really interesting that so many russian swimmers have been caught in the last couple of years, although Russia isnt very good in swimming. On the other hand chinese/japanese/british/french/american/australian/hungarian athletes are (almost) never caught, but i doubt that they are any better.

[OlympicsFan 783]

I am happy that Efimova finally is gone. She shouldnt have been allowed to compete in Kazan anyway. I dont understand why someone like her (who has been banned before) isnt more careful ...

Why bother to read WADA mails, if you have been banned before and cant afford another positiv test ...