According to the results of this and last year, this is my (quite realistic for most sports, I think) prediction for Italy
Archery
Hopefully this time we won't miss out on the full team. 6 athletes
Artistic Swimming
Unfortunately, full team is a serious threat. 8 athletes
Athletics
Difficult to make projections right now, it depends a lot on the relays.
If we're gonna have all 4 (5, Mixed 4*400m included, which doesn't change the total number of specialists), it's already 26/28 people already (Hurdles specialists included, who might be used also for the relays).
Then, we could add about 10 track runners, 5/6 Race Walk specialists, at least a couple Marathon runners and 12/15 Field specialists. 52/60 athletes
Badminton
I think we're going to miss out completely, here. 0 athletes
Basketball
I fear we won't repeat the Tokyo miracle (when we had the men's 5*5 team and the women's 3*3's).
But I still hope the 5*5 men can pull out some more magic. 0/12 athletes.
Beach Volleyball
2 men's teams and 1 women's should be safe, maybe we have a chance for the second women's pair, too and make it a full set. 6/8 athletes
Boxing
4 girls should qualify easily (barred any political robbery, which is always behind the corner in this sport).
And this time I expect also the men taking their revenge after the Tokyo shame and qualify at least 3/4 guys. 7/8 athletes
Breaking
I don't care. But I know that at the last World Champs we had a girl in the top 4, so maybe she can do it again. 1 athlete
Canoeing-Sprint
Men's C1 & C2 should qualify. I hope we can get also the men's K1. Very difficult for the men's K2, no chance for the men's K4 and the women. 4/6 athletes
Canoeing-Slalom
Full set in the 4 traditional competitions should be no problem this time. I don't know if we can get an extra quota in the men's Extreme. 4/5 athletes
Cycling-Track
Full set of 5 in both the men and women's Endurance divisions. I don't know if an extra-man is allowed when also the Madison pair is in?
Miriam Vece in the women's Sprint division. And hopefully at least 1 guy in the men's Sprint division. 12/14 athletes
Cycling-Road
Full team or riots. Possibly an extra-man for the Time Trial event. 8/9 athletes
Cycling-BMX
Hopefully 1 or 2 men in the Racing division. Luckily, no chance in Freestyle. 1/2 athletes
Cycling-MTB
Full team , most likely. Unfortunately, these days, that only means 4 quotas. 4 athletes
Diving
2 men and 2 women (if Bertocchi can stay healthy) in the Springboard events. Only 1 man and 1 woman in the Platform events, I fear. 6 athletes
Equestrian
Hopefully the 3 guys in the Eventing competition. At least 1 in Show Jumping (hoping that this time it's Lorenzo De Luca); very small chance to have the full team.
No chance in Dressage (it looks that we don't even compete anymore on the international stage in this discipline, which isn't that bad for me). 4/6 athletes
Fencing
Full team or more than riots. 18 (24 with the reserves, even if they're not originally registered at the Olympic Village unless they actually play a part in the team events) athletes
Field Hockey
No chance among the men; very, very remote chance among the women. Realistic prediction, 0 athletes
Football
Super-slim chance for the girls; hopefully this time we can get back to the Olympics with the boys, as competition doesn't seem so strong. Realistic prediction, 18 athletes
Golf
2 men for sure; most likely also 2 women (1 should be a lock). 3/4 athletes
Gymnastics-Artistic
The women's team is a lock; hopefully this time also the guys can make it with the full team. 10 athletes
Gymnastics-Rhythmic
Full team or riots. 7 athletes
Gymnastics-Trampoline
I don't care, but I read that we have a new raising super-star among the women (she won this year's junior Europeans with scores that would have given her a place right behind the senior medallists). 0/1 athlete
Handball
Both teams are a joke. 0 athletes
Judo
Hopefully 5 men and 4 women, maybe 1 more athlete through the Continental repechage quota. 9/10 athletes
Modern Pentathlon
2 women should be safe; 1 or 2 men is possible (but not a lock at all). 2/4 athletes
Rowing
All the men's boats and at least 3 women's crews, maybe 4. 30/34 athletes
Rugby 7's
Let's be serious! 0 athletes
Sailing
Men and women's ILCA (only because of the very high number of quota places available), women's 49er FX, men and women's iQFoil, men and women's Kite, Mixed 470 and Nacra 17. 12 Athletes
Shooting
Full team in Shotgun or more than more than riots.
at least 3 men in the Pistol disciplines; at least 1 man and 1 woman in the Rifle discipline. At least 13 athletes
Skateboarding
If we get 1 representative in total we're lucky. 0/1 athlete
Sport Climbing
2 women and 1 man in the Combined event. At least 1 man in the Speed discipline. Hopefully, some more. 4-7 athletes
Surfing
If we get 1 representative in total we're lucky. 0/1 athlete
Swimming
Also here the relays play a big role in terms of number of athletes qualified. My guess is 4 (+ the Mixed sh*t) for Italy. And the women's 4*100m Freestyle just on the edge
Therefore, I think 21/22 men and 8/13 women are a safe bet. 29-35 athletes
Table Tennis
Hopefully we get 1 quota place among the women. 0/1 athlete
Taekwondo
2 men should be a lock. But I hope we can get 3 or 4. A single quota place among the women would be a huge success. 2/5 athletes
Tennis
Full team among the men (hoping that Sinner and Berrettini this time want to play the Olympic tournament). Hopefully 1 or 2 women, too (but it's gonna be difficult). 4/6 athletes
Triathlon
I think that in the end we'll get a quota place with the Mixed Relay, which means 2 men and 2 women in total. There's also a slim chance to get a 3rd man. 4/5 athletes
Volleyball
Both teams should be a lock. 24 Athletes
Waterpolo
Both teams should qualify this time. 26 athletes
Weightlifting
3 men (61kg, 73kg, 89kg) and 2 or 3 women (49kg, 59kg, maybe also 71kg) should be within our reach. 4-5 athletes
Wrestling
2 Greco-Roman and 2 men's Freestyle quota places are the max we can get, I fear. And it's already an optimistic prediction. 2/4 athletes
Total : 344 - 401 athletes