OlympicsFan

1) Impressive that you can judge what rational predictions in all other sports are. 2) Which gymnastics predictions exactly in this thread aren’t rational?

Two for Kamminga, one for Kromowidjojo, one for Toussaint and two in open water.

I don’t know anything about the Dutch medal chances in new sports, but only looking at old sports, I could predict 61 medals for the Netherlands: (Open water) Swimming: 6 Athletics: 8 Archery: 3 Boxing: 1 BMX: 2 Mountainbike: 1 Road cycling: 5 Track cycling: 7 Equestrian: 5 Field hockey: 2 Football: 1 Handball: 1 Artistic gymnastics: 2 Judo: 5 Rowing: 6 Sailing: 5 Water polo: 1

Not sure about Hassan in the 10000 m, Van der Breggen in the time trial (what about the American girl?) and all the sailing golds. 5 golds in sailing would be really impressive given that no nation has won at least 5 golds since Norway did it in 1920 (7 golds) when there were 14 events. In 5 of the Events where they won gold, there were no other competitors ...

I don’t know what medals you already predicted, but in swimming/athletics a super optimistic prediction could look like this: Swimming: 2 x Kamminga (100 and 200 breast) Toussaint (100 back) Kromowidjojo (50 free) Weertman (10 km Open water) Van Rouwendaal (10 km Open water) Athletics: Schippers (200 m) 2 x Bol (400 m and 400 m hurdles) Women‘s 4x400 m relay 2 x Hassan (5000 m and 10000 m) Visser (100 m hurdles) Vetter (heptathlon)

Kind of sad that even I could make better predictions than French media. Your men’s 400 free relay 99.999 % won’t win silver. Olivier winning gold would also be a shock, given that both Wellbrock and Paltrinieri have far superior speed. Manaudou should win silver and maybe you will win a medal in men’s 800 free. You can justify predicting gold for Mayer, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable about it. Predicting medals in women’s hammer throw and for grandpa Diniz also seems questionable. I would rather predict a medal in men’s pole vault and/or men’s 110 m hurdles.

She could definitely medal in both, but obviously she doesn’t belong on that list. There are multiple other woman who could swim between 2:20 and 2:21. I guess you didn’t really get what my list was about.

I think 5-6 medals in swimming is only realistic if Hosszu gets back close to her best (sub 4:32 and sub 2:08). Other athletes should combine for 2-4 medals. 2 medals for Milak and then maybe 1-2 medals for Kesely, Kenderesi and maybe Rasovszky.

Not sure what your comment has to do with my comment? 1) In sports it doesn’t matter what you deserve. 2) He is far from a lock to medal in either event, so I didn’t include him. 3) He certainly is a medal contender in both events.

Let’s hope that you are right and that they will indeed not host it.

In swimming i feel pretty comfortable predicting the following medalists: Women: Ledecky (400/800/1500 free) Quadarella (1500 free) Titmus (400 free) MacNeil (100 fly) King (100 breast) Smith (100/200 back) McKeown (100/200 back) Ye Shiwen (200/400 IM) USA (all relays) Australia (all relays) Canada (medley relay/400 free relay) Men: Dressel (50/100 free/100 fly) Chalmers (100 free) Paltrinieri (800 free) Wellbrock (1500 free) Peaty (100 breast) Sato (200 breast) Chupkov (200 breast) Rylov (200 back) Milak (100/200 fly) Seto (200 fly/200/400 IM) USA (400 free relay/medley relay) Russia (all relays) GB (medley relay) Australia (800 free relay)

Yes and McKeown is a lock for another one, so there is only 1 medal left for the 2nd American, Atherton, the two Canadians and Panziera.

I think one of them having an off day wouldn’t be enough. At least 3 of them would need to have an off day (if you consider them better than Pignatiello on a normal day).

For female teenagers yes, for boys not so much.

Has anyone here googled an image of Masilingi? If they allow her to compete in the 400 m, they might as well allow Seyni and Semenya to compete there (and also Eid Naser).

Oh ... anyways, Botswana became really good all of a sudden a couple of years ago. Then Monthso was caught and it seemed to slow them down again, but now they seem to be back to their old ways (especially on the men’s side). I can’t really blame those athletes though. In some sense it would be stupid not to dope. They have zero perspective in life outside of sports and at best their nations do nothing to actually catch dopers (maybe they even actively try to „encourage“ it).

So Tanzania is the new Botswana?

Very interesting. I think Wellbrock won’t swim this in Tokyo, so the other two should be safe. Very encouraging PB for Wellbrock by over a second though. The battle in the 800 and 1500 free could be more interesting. Märtens should definitely be able to reach the standard in the 1500 and Schwarz could also do it. The same is true in the 800 free, but I am not sure if Märtens will even swim that event. Mühlleitner could maybe achieve the 800 free standard as well if he tried. Hopefully this is also good news for the men’s 800 free relay. So far there were no promising times, but those 3 should be able to swim some decent times now. I am especially interested to see what Märtens can do in the 200 free. At the end of last year he was at 1:47.2 and 3:48.2, so hopefully his improvement in the 400 free is a good sign for his 200 free as well, he might be able to qualify in the 200 free. Bernd Berkhahn is a true magician. He developed Märtens into a world class athlete within one year and Gose looks also improved, although I wish that she would have focused on her 200 free a little bit longer. Edit: Maybe Imoudu can get the 100 breast standard tonight, he was 1:00.16 in prelims (Eindhoven).

If you are interested in a discussion, then quote me, otherwise no reason to spam this thread. The time is ok and the fact that both her and Herkle improved their PBs this year is encouraging. In the past more often than not German talents, especially on the women’s side, stopped progressing after their junior years. You still shouldn’t make exceptions or you might as well get rid of standards. Vogelmann can compete at the European championships (and „prove“ herself there) and she is young enough to make the next three olympics. I think it can be good to still have a longterm goal (making the Olympics). For someone like her the goal shouldn’t just be to make the Olympics anyways, she has enough potential to medal in 2024 or 2028. I hope that many more German swimmers will reach the standards. I am especially interested to see what Gose and Märtens (both very young) can do (next weekend?).

Hopefully she won’t be nominated with this time. She should try again next weekend.

What is the point of a competition like this where most of the top nations (Italy, Hungary, Germany, Canada, Japan, China) don’t even compete?

Could you maybe Name all the medalists (if you already know them)?

Interesting statistic: This was only the third loss for Germany in World Cup qualification history. The previous two were against Portugal (0:1 in 1985) and England (1:5 in 2001). Both losses were at home too and both times (1986 and 2002) Germany made the World Cup Final afterwards.

Nooooooooooo!? You obviously have gigantic balls to wear a mullet. Please teach me how to reach that level of not giving a fuck!

Slightly off-topic: Is that you in your profile pic?