Track Cycling UCI Nations Cup 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[Josh 5,728]

14 minutes ago, RussB said:

She has had many disappointing results in the event despite her successes in the individual sprint over the past 2 years, tactically she has appeared to get caught out so I don’t think a “favourite” tag can be said with any degree of certainty.

 

Come Paris this event could be really wide open. However, there is a chance that if she arrives in dominating form she could feasibly go for all 3 titles. 

Somehow got sprint and keirin confused.  

[heywoodu 13,561]

33 minutes ago, Josh said:

Personally, I’d say even more than a contender. Right now she’s the favourite for gold at Paris (very slightly), and even if she doesn’t win gold I don’t see her missing the podium. But who knows, the Olympics always tend to produce a lot of surprises 

Especially the keirin, few events have so many contenders, with the biggest 'favourite' probably still having only like 10% chance  

[Jinzha 529]

2 hours ago, heywoodu said:

Especially the keirin, few events have so many contenders, with the biggest 'favourite' probably still having only like 10% chance  

Careful study of the past two Olympic Keirin finals shows me a Dutch woman has a 100٪ chance of winning. Easy gold for Van der Wouw

[Nish 0]

On 3/17/2024 at 10:00 PM, Josh said:

Personally, I’d say even more than a contender. Right now she’s the favourite for gold at Paris (very slightly), and even if she doesn’t win gold I don’t see her missing the podium. But who knows, the Olympics always tend to produce a lot of surprises 

Ellesse Andrews returns in 3 weeks in 3rd round of Nations Cup. She’s aiming that Olympic gold. She’s worked hard for it. Dominated Keirin for past 2 years

Edited March 18 by Nish

[heywoodu 13,561]

12 minutes ago, Nish said:

Ellesse Andrews returns in 3 weeks in 3rd round of Nations Cup. She’s aiming that Olympic gold. She’s worked hard for it. Dominated Keirin for past 2 years

Yep, yet another one of many, many contenders for the medals.

[Nish 0]

Just now, heywoodu said:

Yep, yet another one of many, many contenders for the medals.

She’s done everything to be the top medal contender. World champ last year. Super leagues champs. CWG champ. She’s worked hardest for it. Very good contender for a medal in Sprint too. But Keirin looks to be what she’s worked hard for

[heywoodu 13,561]

16 minutes ago, Nish said:

She’s done everything to be the top medal contender. World champ last year. Super leagues champs. CWG champ. She’s worked hardest for it. Very good contender for a medal in Sprint too. But Keirin looks to be what she’s worked hard for

Yep, that's what I meant with her being very much a contender in the big mix. There's a whole bunch of contenders who have all worked super hard for it (presumably all of them 'want it the most', and that kind of thing), and if there's one unpredictable event, it's the keirin. Gonna be fun, at least 10-15 riders have a significant medal shot and the fight for gold is most likely going to be fantastically tight  

Edited March 18 by heywoodu

[Nish 0]

1 minute ago, heywoodu said:

Yep, that's what I meant with her being very much a contender in the big mix. There's a whole bunch of contenders who have all worked super hard for it (presumably all of them 'want it the most', and that kind of thing), and if there's one unpredictable event, it's the keirin. Gonna be fun, at least 10-15 riders have a significant medal shot and the fight for gold is most likely going to be fantastically tight  

10-15? That’s a bit too much mate. Genuinely Andrews, Bayona, Friedrich, Sato, Hinze are in the mix for medals. Have followed every major track cycling event in last 14 months 

[heywoodu 13,561]

27 minutes ago, Nish said:

10-15? That’s a bit too much mate. Genuinely Andrews, Bayona, Friedrich, Sato, Hinze are in the mix for medals. Have followed every major track cycling event in last 14 months 

Same here  And it's a matter of agreeing to disagree, which is of course fine. Anyway it's going to be good in Paris.

Edited March 18 by heywoodu

[Rafa Maciel 1,260]

14 minutes ago, Nish said:

10-15? That’s a bit too much mate. Genuinely Andrews, Bayona, Friedrich, Sato, Hinze are in the mix for medals. Have followed every major track cycling event in last 14 months 

To be fair I think we've all followed every major track cycling event in the last 14 months . I don't think @heywooduis too far out by saying there's 10-15 riders with significant medal chances - after all, all that means is that anyone who gets themselves into a semi-final is in with a medal shout.

 

And for what it's worth, here's my take on the 10-15 genuine medal chances and why I think they are in the mix:

 

 Emma Finucane & Katy Marchant - Finucane is European silver medalist, won the event in HK and is the cyclist probably in the best form whilst Marchant took silver in Adelaide. Could even make an argument in favour of Sophie Capewell.

 Emma Hinze & Lea Friedrich - Hinze took silver in Hong Kong whilst Friedrich is European Champions, was 8th in Hong Kong and 6th in Adelaide. 

 Mina Sato - Champion in Adelaide and 5th in Hong Kong.

 Mathilde Gros - 4th in the Europeans, 7th in Adelaide and 6th in Hong Kong - will also have home town advantage and unlikely to have the additional 3 rides from team sprint. 

 Hetty van de Wouw & Steffie van der Peet - van de Wouw was bronze medalist at Europeans and 4th at Worlds in Glasgow whilst van der Peet made the small final in Hong Kong and in Glasgow. 

 Ellesse Andrews - '23 World Champ and UCI TCL Champion. Will be interesting to see how she performs on her return from injury. 

 Nicky Degrendele - 5th at the Europeans, 4th in Hong Kong and made the small final in Adelaide. 

 Martha Bayona - silver medalist at last year's world champs and made the small final in Adelaide.

 Lauriane Genest - silver medalist at '23 PanAm champs and bronze medalist in Adelaide.

 

That's a fairly easy list of 12 names and there are more besides.