How Many Athletes will Your Nation Qualify for the Summer Olympic Games 2020?

[Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo 142]

10 ore fa, Gianlu33 ha scritto:

Let's start

 

Archery: Italy will provabily qualify all athletes without big problems.

Artistic Swimming: We improve in the last 10 years, like in Rio the objective in archive the full quota.

Athletics: In London and in Rio we qualified 38 athletes, we can try to sent in Rio 45 athletetes.

Badminton: I will put my money on Caponio and Garino/Iversen, it will be hard.

Baseball: No chance here, Netherlands will win the european quota.

Basketball: With some luck our men's team can back at the games.

Beach Volleyball: Probabily 3 pairs (2 M +1 W)

Boxing: From 5 to 7 quotas

Canoeing - Slalom: We improve a lot in canoe slalom, 4 quotas can be a good result

Canoeing - Sprint: Around 6 athletes... I hope

Cycling - BMX: Maybe 1, maybe 0... who know

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 2/3 men and 1 woman.

Cycling - Road: Italy will easy qualify the max contigent

Cycling - Track: Italy is actually without a velodrome 

Diving: Let's hope that Cagnotto will back... 

Equestrian: It will be amazing if we reach to qualify the jumping and the eventing team. Our dressage is dead

Fencing: 24 athletes, why not?

Field Hockey: Women's team are our biggest hope

Football: I don't know... we'll host the U21 European championship, we can try to reach the semifinals.

Golf: 2 M + 1 W

Gymnastics - Artistic: Around 6 athletes

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Full quotas

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Our biggest athlete is a 37 years old and he will watch the Games on his sofa

Handball: Italian handball? What is?

Judo: From 6 to 8 quotas

Karate: Very strict qualification process, from 1 to 4.

Modern Pentathlon: We have a great women's team and a nice men's team.. 3/4 quotas I guess

Rowing: From 23 to 27 quotas

Rugby Sevens: What?

Sailing: Like in Rio, 13 quotas.

Shooting: I guess 13 quotas

Skateboarding: I know only Ivan Federico

Softball: Our team will fight against Netherlands for the spot

Sport Climbing: 2 quotas

Surfing: 1 or 0

Swimming: From 30 to 35

Table Tennis: 1 or 0

Taekwondo: Dell'Aquila is the biggest chance, maybe Rotolo

Tennis: 6 or 4

Triathlon: It's hard to say.. maybe 4 or 5.

Volleyball: Both teams

Water Polo: Both teams

Weightlifting: From 2 to 4

Wrestling: Chamizo is the only one that is sure to archive the qualification

Total Sports: 36

Optimistic Total Athletes: 406

Realistic Total Athletes: 297

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 241

Pessimistic prediction.

Baseball:  "No chance here, Netherlands will win the european quota." Why? It depend for roster, if many italo-american's player will be in national team, we can go to tokyo. Poss. 45%
Cycling - Track: "Italy is actually without a velodrome" Its' totally crazy, but we can qualify 10-12 bikers easily
Equestrian: Both jumping and -propably-eventing team will qualify.

Football: men's team have a big chance. Womens' team can qualify with some lucky

.
Field Hockey: Women's team are our biggest hope More than a hope. 51% today.
Skateboarding: I" know only Ivan Federico" Asia LAnzi in female street


In think that realistic prevision is 370-380 qualifiers. 400 is optimistic, less than 360 a tragedy

 

[EselTheDonkey 824]

Archery: 4 (Women's Team and one man. Though it isn't impossible that men's Team will qualify as well)

Artistic Swimming: 0

Athletics: Maybe About 60

Badminton: 4 to 6

Baseball: 0

Basketball: Maaaaybe the men's team

Beach Volleyball: 6 (to female Teams and one male)

Boxing: No idea. 6 Maybe?

Canoeing - Slalom: A starter in all Events. Makes 5.

Canoeing - Sprint: Again, a boat in each category

Cycling - BMX: 1

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 4

Cycling - Road: 7 or 8

Cycling - Track: 13

Diving: 8 to 10

Equestrian: 9

Fencing: 9

Field Hockey: Both teams

Football: At least one Team, hopefully

Golf: 4

Gymnastics - Artistic: 8 to 10

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Women's Group and one individual athlete

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 1, maybe

Handball: Hopefully both Teams. But 1 Team is probably more realistic.

Judo: 12-14

Karate: No idea

Modern Pentathlon: 3-4

Rowing: I hope for all of the boats

Rugby Sevens: The men's Team has a tiny chance

Sailing: Most boats, because we Always do. I really don't know enough About sailing to be more precise

Shooting: About 20

Skateboarding: Probably none

Softball: No chance

Sport Climbing: 2 or 3

Surfing: 0

Swimming: 20-30

Table Tennis: Both teams

Taekwondo: 3 to 5

Tennis: 5 to 7

Triathlon: 4 to 6

Volleyball: Both Teams have a chance to qualify, though it won't be easy for either.

Water Polo: 0

Weightlifting: 4 to 6

Wrestling: About 6  

[hckošice 14,835]

8 hours ago, dcro said:

 

Well, I assume Samorin will be the likely host of the Group C team jumping qualifications, so you never know. With quotas being increased from one to two and Ukraine (probably) not cheating anymore, there will be a room for a Slovakian surprise. Which would be really crazy.

 

Man, even in a obscure Sci-Fi movie this would be a real miracle

[Gianlu33 4,574]

27 minuti fa, Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo ha scritto:

Pessimistic prediction.

Baseball:  "No chance here, Netherlands will win the european quota." Why? It depend for roster, if many italo-american's player will be in national team, we can go to tokyo. Poss. 45%
Cycling - Track: "Italy is actually without a velodrome" Its' totally crazy, but we can qualify 10-12 bikers easily
Equestrian: Both jumping and -propably-eventing team will qualify.

Football: men's team have a big chance. Womens' team can qualify with some lucky

.
Field Hockey: Women's team are our biggest hope More than a hope. 51% today.
Skateboarding: I" know only Ivan Federico" Asia LAnzi in female street


In think that realistic prevision is 370-380 qualifiers. 400 is optimistic, less than 360 a tragedy

 

I know, but i'm a little pessimistic  You know

[phelps 7,678]

13 ore fa, hckosice ha scritto:

Field Hockey: No ice, no fun

0


Sailing: we have no sea

0

 

the first one...

p.s. I agree, but only in part (it could be fun also without ice, even if on the ice it's definitely a lot better)...

 

 

the last one...also Hungary, Switzerland and Austria have no sea...

so, you can always hope even for a medal...

sooner or later...later more than sooner, I fear...

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 14 Stunden schrieb intoronto:

That's like asking why is canoe slalom anywhere near the Olympic program? Finally a team sport that is not centred in Europe!

I would say its rather like asking why womens ice hockey is at the olympics. Besides that i dont see how rugby, basketball, field hockey or even volleyball can be called euro-centric. The same is true for curling and ice hockey at the winter olympics.

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 5 Stunden schrieb EselTheDonkey:

Archery: 4 (Women's Team and one man. Though it isn't impossible that men's Team will qualify as well)

Artistic Swimming: 0

Athletics: Maybe About 60

Badminton: 4 to 6

Baseball: 0

Basketball: Maaaaybe the men's team

Beach Volleyball: 6 (to female Teams and one male)

Boxing: No idea. 6 Maybe?

Canoeing - Slalom: A starter in all Events. Makes 5.

Canoeing - Sprint: Again, a boat in each category

Cycling - BMX: 1

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 4

Cycling - Road: 7 or 8

Cycling - Track: 13

Diving: 8 to 10

Equestrian: 9

Fencing: 9

Field Hockey: Both teams

Football: At least one Team, hopefully

Golf: 4

Gymnastics - Artistic: 8 to 10

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Women's Group and one individual athlete

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 1, maybe

Handball: Hopefully both Teams. But 1 Team is probably more realistic.

Judo: 12-14

Karate: No idea

Modern Pentathlon: 3-4

Rowing: I hope for all of the boats

Rugby Sevens: The men's Team has a tiny chance

Sailing: Most boats, because we Always do. I really don't know enough About sailing to be more precise

Shooting: About 20

Skateboarding: Probably none

Softball: No chance

Sport Climbing: 2 or 3

Surfing: 0

Swimming: 20-30

Table Tennis: Both teams

Taekwondo: 3 to 5

Tennis: 5 to 7

Triathlon: 4 to 6

Volleyball: Both Teams have a chance to qualify, though it won't be easy for either.

Water Polo: 0

Weightlifting: 4 to 6

Wrestling: About 6  

Athletics: My current prediction is 63, so it should be something between 60 and 70.

Basketball: I think the men's team has a good chance, i would say only Spain, Serbia and France are stronger. Lithuania, Latvia, Greece, Turkey, Italy, Slovenia are all about on the same level at best.

Boxing: I think 6 is too optimistic. On the womens side i would say only Apetz has a chance and on the mens side there are 5 guys with a chance, but only if you count Harutyunyan who became a pro last year. My guess would be 3-4 (Apetz, Baraou, Ibrahim and maybe Harutyunyan).

Fencing: I dont see Germany qualifying 9 athletes. I think 6 or 7 would be the best possible outcome.

Football: I think the mens team will struggle to say the least, the guys born in 1997 or later are very weak.

Judo: 12-14 is definitely too optimistic in my opinion, i think 8 would be good.

Rowing: The situation is pretty promising, but i for example dont see Germany qualifiying a boat in womens eight.

Sailing: I think you are too optimistic, but lets see, my guess would be 4-6 boats (Buhl, Jurczok/Lorenz and 2 out of the remaining categories).

Taekwondo: I think 3 would be very good given the current situation.

Volleyball: I think no team qualifying is definitely more realistic than both qualifying. I think the mens team is clearly stronger, but they have a more difficult path to qualify.

 

So what would be your conclusion? How many german athletes realistically in Tokyo? Will it be a bigger team than in Rio (athletes in new sports excluded)?

[EselTheDonkey 824]

vor 3 Stunden schrieb OlympicsFan:

Athletics: My current prediction is 63, so it should be something between 60 and 70.

Basketball: I think the men's team has a good chance, i would say only Spain, Serbia and France are stronger. Lithuania, Latvia, Greece, Turkey, Italy, Slovenia are all about on the same level at best.

Boxing: I think 6 is too optimistic. On the womens side i would say only Apetz has a chance and on the mens side there are 5 guys with a chance, but only if you count Harutyunyan who became a pro last year. My guess would be 3-4 (Apetz, Baraou, Ibrahim and maybe Harutyunyan).

Fencing: I dont see Germany qualifying 9 athletes. I think 6 or 7 would be the best possible outcome.

Football: I think the mens team will struggle to say the least, the guys born in 1997 or later are very weak.

Judo: 12-14 is definitely too optimistic in my opinion, i think 8 would be good.

Rowing: The situation is pretty promising, but i for example dont see Germany qualifiying a boat in womens eight.

Sailing: I think you are too optimistic, but lets see, my guess would be 4-6 boats (Buhl, Jurczok/Lorenz and 2 out of the remaining categories).

Taekwondo: I think 3 would be very good given the current situation.

Volleyball: I think no team qualifying is definitely more realistic than both qualifying. I think the mens team is clearly stronger, but they have a more difficult path to qualify.

 

So what would be your conclusion? How many german athletes realistically in Tokyo? Will it be a bigger team than in Rio (athletes in new sports excluded)?

 

About Fencing: I am slightly more optimistic, because this time there will be team events for all weapons. Men's sabre and Women's foil at the very least have a good chance to qualify, which would make already six competitors. And three more individual athletes seems possible, IMO.

 

As I said, I really don't know about sailing (Sailing bores me, to be honest). I was just guessing based on the last few Olympics. Therefore I certainly won't contradict you.

 

Yeah, I was probably a bit too optimistisc at Judo, but everything under 10 competitors would seriously disappoint me.

 

And I avoided a specific number on purpose.  But I think it will be less starters than in Rio, unless we qualify in a lot of team sports. The National Athletics and Swimming Federations will probably be much less generous, to begin with.

Edited July 26, 2018 by EselTheDonkey

[Dragon 1,844]

4 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

Athletics: My current prediction is 63, so it should be something between 60 and 70.

Basketball: I think the men's team has a good chance, i would say only Spain, Serbia and France are stronger. Lithuania, Latvia, Greece, Turkey, Italy, Slovenia are all about on the same level at best.

Boxing: I think 6 is too optimistic. On the womens side i would say only Apetz has a chance and on the mens side there are 5 guys with a chance, but only if you count Harutyunyan who became a pro last year. My guess would be 3-4 (Apetz, Baraou, Ibrahim and maybe Harutyunyan).

Fencing: I dont see Germany qualifying 9 athletes. I think 6 or 7 would be the best possible outcome.

Football: I think the mens team will struggle to say the least, the guys born in 1997 or later are very weak.

Judo: 12-14 is definitely too optimistic in my opinion, i think 8 would be good.

Rowing: The situation is pretty promising, but i for example dont see Germany qualifiying a boat in womens eight.

Sailing: I think you are too optimistic, but lets see, my guess would be 4-6 boats (Buhl, Jurczok/Lorenz and 2 out of the remaining categories).

Taekwondo: I think 3 would be very good given the current situation.

Volleyball: I think no team qualifying is definitely more realistic than both qualifying. I think the mens team is clearly stronger, but they have a more difficult path to qualify.

 

So what would be your conclusion? How many german athletes realistically in Tokyo? Will it be a bigger team than in Rio (athletes in new sports excluded)?

With boxing it is almost impossible to predict until we know the rules for qualification.

If professionals are allowed to compete and some of the German pros attempt to reach Tokyo it could as much as 10.

[MHSN 3,621]

I have to read all the qualification rules carefully to have a better prediction. for examples in sports like Table Tennis or Cycling it will depend on the qualification rules. for example I know we won't get 3 free quotas in Cycling anymore. so I prefer to wait after the Asian Games (where we bring all we have to the competition) to have a better prediction.

 

btw I see some users expect few quotas in Karate, you guys should really read the qualification rules. this is a world wide sport and only 10 spots available for each event. it will be extremely hard to qualify. Iran is a powerhouse in this sport but still I will be VERY happy with only 3 quotas.