How Many Athletes will Your Nation Qualify for the Summer Olympic Games 2020?

[LDOG 2,418]

 

Tokyo Qualification Events have already begun and this year we have many of them.

Earlier we had a thread about Early Team Sports Qualification Predictions, but now with little less than two years to the beginning of the Games, it's time to open thread for official qualification predictions.

 

 

Here is a Template you can follow for a detailed prediction by Sport.

Copy, paste and edit the text inside the brackets.
 
 

Archery: add your text/number here

Artistic Swimming: add your text/number here

Athletics: add your text/number here

Badminton: add your text/number here

Baseball: add your text/number here

Basketball: add your text/number here

Beach Volleyball: add your text/number here

Boxing: add your text/number here

Canoeing - Slalom: add your text/number here

Canoeing - Sprint: add your text/number here

Cycling - BMX: add your text/number here

Cycling - Mountain Bike: add your text/number here

Cycling - Road: add your text/number here

Cycling - Track: add your text/number here

Diving: add your text/number here

Equestrian: add your text/number here

Fencing: add your text/number here

Field Hockey: add your text/number here

Football: add your text/number here

Golf: add your text/number here

Gymnastics - Artistic: add your text/number here

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: add your text/number here

Gymnastics - Trampoline: add your text/number here

Handball: add your text/number here

Judo: add your text/number here

Karate: add your text/number here

Modern Pentathlon: add your text/number here

Rowing: add your text/number here

Rugby Sevens: add your text/number here

Sailing: add your text/number here

Shooting: add your text/number here

Skateboarding: add your text/number here

Softball: add your text/number here

Sport Climbing: add your text/number here

Surfing: add your text/number here

Swimming: add your text/number here

Table Tennis: add your text/number here

Taekwondo: add your text/number here

Tennis: add your text/number here

Triathlon: add your text/number here

Volleyball: add your text/number here

Water Polo: add your text/number here

Weightlifting: add your text/number here

Wrestling: add your text/number here


Total Sports: add your text/number here

Optimistic Total Athletes: add your text/number here

Realistic Total Athletes: add your text/number here

Pessimistic Total Athletes: add your text/number here

[AlFHg 330]

Ok, I'll try giving out my predictions for Italy

 

 

Archery: 6 6 4

Artistic Swimming: 8 8 8

Athletics: 60 50 35

Badminton: 3 1 0

Baseball: 24 0 0

Basketball: 32 16 0

Beach Volleyball: 8 6 4

Boxing: 8 5 3

Canoeing - Slalom: 4 3 2

Canoeing - Sprint: 8 5 3

Cycling - BMX: 2 1 0

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 5 4 2

Cycling - Road: 9 8 7

Cycling - Track: 15 12 10

Diving: 6 4 2

Equestrian: 9 7 4

Fencing: 18 16 13

Field Hockey: 16 16 0

Football: 36 18 0

Golf: 4 3 2

Gymnastics - Artistic: 10 6 5

Gymnastics - Rhythmic:  7 6 6

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 1 0 0

Handball: 0 0 0

Judo: 10 8 4

Karate: 6 3 1

Modern Pentathlon: 4 3 2

Rowing: 48 40 30

Rugby Sevens: 0 0 0

Sailing: 15 12 10

Shooting: 20 14 10

Skateboarding: 2 1 0

Softball: 15 0 0 

Sport Climbing: 3 2 0

Surfing: 1 0 0 

Swimming: 50 35 25

Table Tennis: 2 1 0

Taekwondo: 2 2 0

Tennis: 6 4 3

Triathlon: 5 4 3

Volleyball: 24 24 12

Water Polo: 22 22 22 

Weightlifting: 4 2 2

Wrestling: 6 3 2


Total Sports: 41

Optimistic Total Athletes: 544

Realistic Total Athletes: 381

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 236

Edited July 30, 2018 by AlFHg

[Gianlu33 4,600]

Let's start

 

Archery: Italy will provabily qualify all athletes without big problems.

Artistic Swimming: We improve in the last 10 years, like in Rio the objective in archive the full quota.

Athletics: In London and in Rio we qualified 38 athletes, we can try to sent in Rio 45 athletetes.

Badminton: I will put my money on Caponio and Garino/Iversen, it will be hard.

Baseball: No chance here, Netherlands will win the european quota.

Basketball: With some luck our men's team can back at the games.

Beach Volleyball: Probabily 3 pairs (2 M +1 W)

Boxing: From 5 to 7 quotas

Canoeing - Slalom: We improve a lot in canoe slalom, 4 quotas can be a good result

Canoeing - Sprint: Around 6 athletes... I hope

Cycling - BMX: Maybe 1, maybe 0... who know

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 2/3 men and 1 woman.

Cycling - Road: Italy will easy qualify the max contigent

Cycling - Track: Italy is actually without a velodrome 

Diving: Let's hope that Cagnotto will back... 

Equestrian: It will be amazing if we reach to qualify the jumping and the eventing team. Our dressage is dead

Fencing: 24 athletes, why not?

Field Hockey: Women's team are our biggest hope

Football: I don't know... we'll host the U21 European championship, we can try to reach the semifinals.

Golf: 2 M + 1 W

Gymnastics - Artistic: Around 6 athletes

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Full quotas

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Our biggest athlete is a 37 years old and he will watch the Games on his sofa

Handball: Italian handball? What is?

Judo: From 6 to 8 quotas

Karate: Very strict qualification process, from 1 to 4.

Modern Pentathlon: We have a great women's team and a nice men's team.. 3/4 quotas I guess

Rowing: From 23 to 27 quotas

Rugby Sevens: What?

Sailing: Like in Rio, 13 quotas.

Shooting: I guess 13 quotas

Skateboarding: I know only Ivan Federico

Softball: Our team will fight against Netherlands for the spot

Sport Climbing: 2 quotas

Surfing: 1 or 0

Swimming: From 30 to 35

Table Tennis: 1 or 0

Taekwondo: Dell'Aquila is the biggest chance, maybe Rotolo

Tennis: 6 or 4

Triathlon: It's hard to say.. maybe 4 or 5.

Volleyball: Both teams

Water Polo: Both teams

Weightlifting: From 2 to 4

Wrestling: Chamizo is the only one that is sure to archive the qualification

Total Sports: 36

Optimistic Total Athletes: 406

Realistic Total Athletes: 297

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 241

[hoversaBR 441]

Brazil...

 

Archery: 2 Men's Individual and 1 Women's Individual.

Artistic Swimming:  0 or 2 

Athletics: 40-45

Badminton: 1 Men's Singles and 1 Women's Singles.

Baseball: 0

Basketball: It's almost impossible, but maybe our male team. The women's team with no chances.

Beach Volleyball: Full Team.

Boxing: 3-5

Canoeing - Slalom: 3

Canoeing - Sprint:  Full time in the canoe. Maybe 1 in the kayak.

Cycling - BMX: 2

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 2

Cycling - Road: 1

Cycling - Track: 1?

Diving: 1-2

Equestrian: Eventing and Jumping Teams. 1 or 2 in Dressage.

 

Fencing: 3 or 4 Individual and 1 Team.

Field Hockey: 0

Football: Both Teams or only the Women's Team

 

Golf: 1 or 2

Gymnastics - Artistic: Both Teams

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 1?

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0-1

Handball: Both Teams or only the Women's Team

Judo: 11-14

Karate: 3-5

Modern Pentathlon: 0-2

Rowing: 1/2?

Rugby Sevens: Women's Team

Sailing: 6 or 7

Shooting: 4 or 5

Skateboarding: 10/12

Softball: 0

Sport Climbing: With luck... Maybe 1.

 

Surfing: Full Team.

Swimming: 22-24

Table Tennis: Full Men's Team and 1 or 2 in Women's Singles.

Taekwondo: 2 or 3.

Tennis: 4 or 5

Triathlon: 1?

Volleyball: Both Teams.

 

Water Polo: If we play well at the Pan American Games, the men's team.

Weightlifting: 1-3

Wrestling: 2 or 3

Total Sports:  37

Optimistic Total Athletes: 280-300

Realistic Total Athletes: 240-265

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 215-225

[hckošice 14,880]

 

Archery: Hopefully Alexandra Longová will make it, she definitely has the capabilities to do it. It would be great to take part in this sport for the second time in a row.

1

Artistic Swimming: Jana Labáthová/Naďa Daabousová were in Rio and I am quite confident they will be in Tokyo as well.

2

Athletics: Hard to predict, but I guess the likes of Matej Tóth 50km RW, Ján Volko 100/200, Mária Czáková RW, Marcel Lomnický HT are the safest athletes + I guess we will somehow manage to qualify few more (M 40m H, HJ, Race Walk, Marathon / W 400m, 800m, 400m H, HT, LJ and TJ)

between 14

Badminton: We apparently have some juniors prospects but the level is too far from the required ones of the Olypics

0

Baseball: How is this at the Olympics ?

0

Basketball: pass

0

Beach Volleyball: our best ever pair we had in this sport Nata Dubovcová/Dominika Nestarcová split up after missing to qualify for Rio, so now we are without any chance to mark our debut in this sport under the five rings

0

Boxing: Jessica Triebeľová is our biggest talent we had, still a high school student is our only medal chance for the upcoming Youth Olympics, 3 years undefeated so far, her biggest dream is to qualify for Tokyo, so hopefully she will fulfill her dream, and SVK will finally sign it´s second participation in this sport since Atlanta 1996. Maybe one of the guys will qualify this time too..why not, especially the Europeans Games bronze medalist Viliam Tankó with some luck can do it

2

Canoeing - Slalom: Full team, otherwise Riots

4

Canoeing - Sprint: K4-500m M, K2-1000m should be safe, Ivana Mládková (Kmeťová) in W K1 will qualify as well I guess, maybe few more surprises will be added

8

Cycling - BMX: No way

0

Cycling - Mountain Bike: Hopefully we will qualify at least 1 guy (Martin Haring  is our biggest option) but it will be very hard

1

Cycling - Road: I sincerely hope this time we will avoid all bad lucks we had before Rio and qualify at least 3 guys. This is still the only major title Sagan is missing

3

Cycling - Track: Alžbeta Pavlendová is our hope, but again, she had to avoid injuries and have at least a small portion of luck, It was really sad how she missed Rio

1

Diving: Non-existent sport in the country

0

Equestrian: Impossible, too low level

0

Fencing: Zero interest in the country, never heard, saw or read even a single word about it outside the Olympics every 4 years. few athletes competing but only a la Coubertin

0

Field Hockey: No ice, no fun

0

Football: Unfortunately Rio 2016 generation was our brightest chance to qualify for the Olympics first time since Sydney, but a motherfucker son of a bitch referee decided otherwise, so we will have to wait at least another 20 years

0

Golf: Sport still only in it´s beginning here

0

Gymnastics - Artistic: I hope Barbara Mokošová will qualify, she deserve it, this time maybe even a man will accompany her hopefully but chances are much more lower than about Barbora

1

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: our girls are not even able to handle their apparatus for a half of their routine as I saw once in a video in this forum

0

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Non-existent sport in the country (Thankfully)

0

Handball: few years back we were quite good M and few years later W but still far from Olympic chances, now we are so extremely bad in this sport M and W so it´s impossible to even reflect about the Olympics participation even in the future

0

Judo: We are desperately bad in combat sports

0

Karate: Surprisingly we are not so bad in this combat sport lol, 1-2 girls should qualify

2

Modern Pentathlon: once again, Modern Pentawhat ?

0

Rowing: no wildwater ? no upstream gates ? so no quotas then. Easy as that

0

Rugby Sevens:

0

Sailing: we have no sea

0

Shooting: yep, hope not jinx it, but the mixed trap (Zuzana Rehák Štefečeková/Erik Varga or Marián Kovačócy) should be one of our biggest medal chances, Danka Barteková hopefully will qualify in Skeet too, I have hopes in few more quotas in Pistol events

7

Skateboarding: We have one guy from Košice who is really carefully and consistently collecting points, so maybe Richard Tury will be in Tokyo

1

Softball: Seriously, you remove C2 to add this ? this is not a sport...

0

Sport Climbing: Climbing ? yes, we have beautiful and majestic Tatras, I invite you all to visit them

0

Surfing: dude..

0

Swimming: Richard Nagy, Tomáš Klobučník among mens and few girls like Mišendová, Hájková and especially Podmaníková are our chances to qualify for Tokyo

5

Table Tennis: Barbora Balážová and Wang Yanag or Ľubomír Pištej should hopefully qualify, maybe some our current interesting junior will make it too

3

Taekwondo: even lower chances than Basketball..

0

Tennis: Cibulková, Rybáriková, Kužmová, Kližan, Lacko, Martin or Gomboš...there a lot of chances to qualify a solid amount of athletes...hopefully no Zika virus will be observed in japan in 2 years...

6

Triathlon: The best swimmer of the triathlon circuit can not be missed. Richard Varga for his 3rd Olympic in a row

1

Volleyball: Far of the required rankings level

0

Water Polo: we always play, we always learn but we always lost

0

Weightlifting: I think we will qualify one guy again, Matej Kováč maybe

1

Wrestling: Honestly I have no idea, we have a armada of former Russians competing for us, time by time some of them even won medals, like at last world champs Boris Makoev silver, so who know maybe he and/or someone else will qualify

1


Total Sports:  19

Optimistic Total Athletes: 64

Realistic Total Athletes: 59

Pessimistic Total Athletes: everything below 50

[intoronto 5,674]

10 minutes ago, hckosice said:

Baseball: How is this at the Olympics ?

0

That's like asking why is canoe slalom anywhere near the Olympic program? Finally a team sport that is not centred in Europe!

[hckošice 14,880]

4 minutes ago, intoronto said:

That's like asking why is canoe slalom anywhere near the Olympic program? Finally a team sport that is not centred in Europe!

 

yeah because in Rio only European teams won team sports apart Handball, W football, W Field Hockey and M water polo it was always another continent country winning gold

 

 

[intoronto 5,674]

3 minutes ago, hckosice said:

 

yeah because in Rio only European teams won team sports apart Handball, W football, W Field Hockey and M water polo it was always another continent country winning gold

 

 

Yes but one would argue all team sports on the current Summer Olympic program is heavily European based except basketball.

 

Also "Sport Climbing: Climbing ? yes, we have beautiful and majestic Tatras, I invite you all to visit them" 

[dcro 10,210]

26 minutes ago, hckosice said:

Equestrian: Impossible, too low level

 

Well, I assume Samorin will be the likely host of the Group C team jumping qualifications, so you never know. With quotas being increased from one to two and Ukraine (probably) not cheating anymore, there will be a room for a Slovakian surprise. Which would be really crazy.

[LDOG 2,418]

Archery: 0-1 (women individual)

Artistic Swimming: 0

Athletics: 13-16

Badminton: 0 - only core sport Argentina has never qualified.

Baseball: 0

Basketball: 0-12 (men, 50/50 chance)

Beach Volleyball: 0-4

Boxing: 1-2

Canoeing - Slalom: 0-1

Canoeing - Sprint: 2-10 (for sure K1 200 and 1000 in men, I don't know if there is still continental quota for K4)

Cycling - BMX: 1-2 (could be two men -difficult- or one each gender)

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 0-1 (men)

Cycling - Road: 1-3 (men)

Cycling - Track: 0-1 (omnium if he improves, but most likely nothing)

Diving: 0 - this sport is currently inexistent

Equestrian: 1-4 maybe we can qualify the jumping team again. 

Fencing: 2-3 (by ranking in women sabre/men epee, maybe  continental quota in Women epee) 

Field Hockey: 32

Football: 0-18 (men)

Golf: 1-2 (men only)

Gymnastics - Artistic: 2 (men&women individual)

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

Handball: 0-14 (maybe the men can qualify, 50/50 against Brazil)

Judo: 1-2 (Paula Pareto and... maybe someone else)

Karate: 0-1 (it's a long shot)

Modern Pentathlon: 1-2 (women for sure, men maybe)

Rowing: 2-8 (for sure the singles, maybe the lightweight doubles and maybe men double sculls if they can improve a bit)

Rugby Sevens: 12 (men)

Sailing: 11-13 (everything except the 470s -men with light chance-)

Shooting: 4-5 (10m air rifle m&w, skeet m&w and maybe we can qualify someone in trap or 3 positions)

Skateboarding: 0 - no idea, but I don't think we have much chance.

Softball: 0

Sport Climbing: 0 - no idea, we have good young climber girl for YOG but don't think she will have level to qualify for Tokyo.

Surfing: 0

Swimming: 7-10 (women breastroke 100 and 200, women freestyle all except 100, men freestyle 50, 100, 200, women medley 200, 400, men  butterfly 100, 200, open water women)

Table Tennis: 0-1 (maybe one men)

Taekwondo: 0-1 (maybe Lucas Guzmán can qualify this time)

Tennis: 4 (full men team, no women)

Triathlon: 1-2

Volleyball: 12-24 (men certainly and women depending on Brazil mostly)

Water Polo: 0

Weightlifting: 0 - we're pathetic

Wrestling: 1 - Bermúdez again in W freestyle.


Total Sports: 21-32

Optimistic Total Athletes: 214

Realistic Total Athletes: Around 150

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 112