Oldira

It has never been about the “strongest athletes/teams” competing.
 
If it was the marathon would be 40 Ethiopians deep. The track 100m would have 15 Jamaicans and 15 from the USA. The swimming 100m freestyle would have 8-10 Australians
 
There would be no African representation in more than half the sports. 
 
It’s fine if you think that’s a better Olympics, but it sounds awful to me. A global spread is far more enjoyable to watch for me. For some just reaching the Olympics is a goal. That’s good enough 

So Jack Woolley  narrowly misses at 58kg and has to qualify at European qualifier? 

1. There's no money in boxing and 2. Those that partake in combat sports and with NZ's relative success in the UFC and MMA they'd rather be Israel Adesanya instead (not the greatest role model to follow however).

Not entirely sure if there is much point predicting these but for completeness lets do it. Very nearly missed this starting as well. Results site said this wasn't starting until Tuesday. There is one qouta up for grabs in all weightclasses. I don't understand why Oceania needed an automatic quota at all given that enough of them qualified through Asia. I believe 9 Oceanians qualified last time although in a few cases in the same weightclass so this automatic spot but only one per weightclass seems strange and unnecessary
W50kg
Monique Suraci 
Should be pretty clear cut. Will face Tasmyn Benny  in the final after Benny beats a home boxer.
W54kg
Tiana Echegaray 
Tiana Echegaray has beaten Christine Gillespie  before so should win the qouta spot. They face off in the semis before almost certainly meeting Hainite Tuitupou  in the final who is good enough to mention here given thats its not like either of the other two are any good. None of these would be anywhere near a quota globally.
 
W57kg
Tina Rahimi 
This one isn't a foregone conclusion but I would still back Australia here. Jennifer Peters  is her opponent and doesn't seem to have basically any international experience. Another Semi final matchup for the quota spot with Feofaaki Epenisa  the likely final opponent.
 
W60kg
Tyla Mcdonald 
I should pick Erin Walsh  here as she is the best New Zealander so far as in she has literally beaten the previous couple but well her international results are pretty hopeless. McDonald's aren't much better but well they are slightly.  McDonald has to go through the only women's quarter final against a home boxer before a semi final against Baby Nansen  who is a professional boxer and kickboxer in New Zealand albeit not a very good one. Walsh's semi is against Elizabeth Teapu . (Who mixed in with her very Tongan name has a random Quinn thrown in there so clearly has some sort of Irish connection. (Presumably as tangible a connection as Jaismine Camacho-Quinn who was very confused when an Irish interviewer asked her about it in Tokyo.) Erin Walsh has an actual Irish connection as she was born here.)
 
W66kg
Marissa Williamson 
Entry list has a bunch of entries but its a straight final on the draw sheet unfortunately. Marissa Williamson had a very impressive win beating out World silver medallist at 70kg Kaye Scott at Australian trials and should be way too good for Cara Wharerau .
 
W75kg
Caitlin Parker 
Probably the only true Olympic medal contender in Oceania prabably in either gender, Caitlin Parker should be much too good for her competition here. She faces Eseta Flint who is Australian but representing  having obviously failed to get the Australian selection in her semi. The other semi sees Deanne Read  face timolai lafaialii  .

M51kg
Yusuf Chothia .
Zain Adams, New Zealand's entry appears to have withdrawn althoug I wouldn't have expected him to qualify anyway. Chothia has to go through Eriu Temakau  who is based in Australia and Charles Keama  before a final probably against Nehal Chand . Clinton Tetekana  is the other boxer in the draw. I would be somewhat surprised if any of Chothia's fights go the distance.
 
M57kg
Charlie Senior .
Charlie Senior should comfortably win here. His path to the final involves going through David Rounds , almost certainly Alex Mukuka  and likely Allan Aoike . Although Aoike does need to beat Boe Warawara  who did compete at the Rio Olympics.
 
M63.5kg
Harry Garside .
The only Olympic medallist in the draw although I would not expect him to get anywhere near repeating the feat. He should qualify though albeit the draw could have been kinder with Olympian John Ume  in the first round likely followed by Australian based Pemberton Lele  with Kalani Marra  waiting in the final assuming he beats Lautufa Lutu  and Elia Rokobuli .
 
M71kg
Wendell Stanley .
Finally I get to pick a non Australian. Shannan Davey  has to go through Tauwhiri Toheriri  and likely Taufu Lavemaau  before a final against Wendell Stanley who has a very straightforward path to the final. Stanley beat Davey on a split decision the previous time they met.
 
M80kg
Callum Peters   
Callum Peters isn't very good but its a pity that Emile Richardson  is worse. The top of this draw is actually pretty interesting with a quarter final of Richardson against Roman Viney  who met at the New Zealand national champs earlier this year where Richardson won a split decision. Jolando Taala  who is American based awaits in the semis and it is very possible that we don't see a New Zealand Australian final here despite them being on opposite sides of the draw. Peters will likely face Aminiasi Saratiba  in his semi.
 
M92kg
Ato Plodziki-Faoagali 
This is the most interesting weightclass here and might the only weight where I'm not entirely sure I made the right pick although one or two of the other ones will definitely prove incorrect for one reason or another. Ato Plodziki-Faoagali goes up against Peneteekosi Tatafu  and Michael Schuster  in his path to the final. The other semi will almost certainly see Adrain Paoletti  face Malcolm Matthes . Paoletti has beaten Matthes before. The loser of Plodzicki-Faoagali vs Paoletti will likely be the only boxer I didn't pick here who I might pick to qualify at one of the world qualifying tournaments although, emphasis on might.
 
M92+kg
Teremoana Jnr 
There was a fascinating story here as New Zealand champion Matt Mataika  elected to represent Tonga instead due to the self funding requirements of New Zealand boxing. So the real final here is actually the prospective semi between Mataika and Teremoana Jnr. Unfortunately for Tongan hopes Teremoana jnr is one of Australian's better boxers, maybe even their best male boxer here. The other side of the draw probably sees Patrick Mailata  who was born in Samoa face Elijah Mercury Leafa  who is based in New Zealand.
 
So my final tally is Australia-11, New Zealand-1, Samoa-1 and it is probably more likely Australia gets to 12 than falls to 10. This Australia squad is a half decent Australian squad but the fact that they will cruise to double digits with the likes of Kazakhstan on 2 qualifiers and GB on 3 after continental qualifying is ridiculous.
I should also note that the other non-Olympic weightclasses are being contested here with no Australia or New Zealand so there should be plenty of shinier medals to go around to the smaller nations plus all the bronze going around because the most entries in any of the weight classes is 8 and most have significantly fewer.
 
 
 

gets its second boat qualified for Paris 2024! Dickson and Waddilove were one place outside of qualifying at the World Championships so nice to see them get the job done this time

So boxing national champs. Quick run through of the Olympic weights.
W50kg- Daina Moorehouse retains her title although there was a surprise in the semis with Shannon Sweeney beating Caitlin Fryers on a very close split decision- Moorehouse is almost certain to get the Irish selection for the world qualifying tournaments although while there still a couple of good boxers left globally I would expect Moorehouse to qualify at the first one.
W54kg- Jennifer Lehane overturns the result from the previous national champs and justifies her European games selection by beating Niamh Fay. Niamh Fay is talented but I reckon probably needs go up a weightclass in the future and still needs some serious cleaning up of aspects of her technique. Lehane has a good chance of qualifying but is by far the most vulnerable of the womens weights. If there a weight to hope for a good draw it is this one.
W57kg- Michaela Walsh is obviously already qualified and won a record 11th elite title here.
W60kg- Kellie Harrington is also obviously already qualified and also won a record 11th title.
W66kg- Right so Amy Broadhurst and Lisa O Rourke are both absent through injuries. Grainne Walsh retains her title with wins over Kaci Rock and Christina Desmond but I'll be honest I thought Desmond beat her although it was a very close fight.
W75kg- Aoife O'Rourke walkover I think, not much to say here.
 
M51kg- Sean Mari is still the clear cut number one domestically. Unfortunately internationally is unlikely to be good enough to make the Olympics.
M57kg- The deepest mens weight by a country mile. Jude Gallagher having missed the previous national champs justified is status as the Irish number one by winning here but his semi final against Dylan Eagleson was very close (I kind of thought Eagleson won to be honest). Eagleson had an impressive win against reigning champ Paul Loonam in the prelims and for me at least is still in contention. Adam Hession got a good win against reigning 60kg champion Davey Joyce but despite beating him in the past looked outclassed against Jude Gallagher. Jude Gallagher is obviously the massive favourite at this point but it wouldn't shock me at all if Dylan Eagleson gets the nod for the qualifiers. Either should qualify but it is close and there is a lot of talent left globally.
M63.5kg- Surprise win for Aaron O donoghue over international JP Hale in Dean Clancy's absence.
M71kg- Dissapointingly no Aidan Walsh so difficult to get a clear cut image from these champs. Dean Walsh did win but somewhat unconvincingly with two close fights against Jon McConnell (talented but not Olympic level good) and 67kg champion Eugene Mckeever. For me this should still be Aidan Walsh but he has only boxed three times all year. Dean Walsh is a decent boxer but he just likely isn't quite good enough to make it to the Olympics.
M80kg- What a fight! If you missed them you should defintely watch this one. (TG4 youtube). This fight was worhty of an Olympic medal fight. Kelyn Cassidy gets the win over Gabriel Dossen and likely shores up is status as Irish number one although it was close enough that the door is still ajar for Dossen. Either of them should qualify but if there is a weight where we might switch boxers between the two qualifying tournaments if we fall short at the first one it is probably this one.
M92kg- Jack Marley with a couple of comfortable wins to retain his title.
M92+kg- We probably have our super heavyweight selection. Relative newcomer to boxing Martin Mcdonagh backs up his intermediate title with a win here including a very impressive final win against former Georgian number one Ilia Mtsariashvili. Probably unlikely to qualify but he is talented enough to get a little bit excited about.

Quota : Women's Triathlon
 
Medal, Men's Sevens

If thee was a choke it was in the first 20 minutes.again. Grand Slam match v England..por fist 20 mins where we went 6.0 dow, South Africam match...poor fist 20 minues with lineout in severe bother and finally on Saturday...13 0 down after another poor start. IAew we just poor starters or does neveres hit us at start? The vthree big games this year and we tank in the first quarter. Definitely a pattern.

FWIW Ireland’s Mia Griffin earned 270 points in the last week, 260 on the last day and means we will leap from “borderline out” to “comfortable one spot”
 
No changes in the men’s 

Here’s the full list.  If I’ve made any mistakes, feel free to correct me.
 
Archery- Top NOC in the mixed team event will earn one men’s and one women’s quota for Paris. Top two athletes in the men’s and women’s individual events will earn one quota for Paris, providing their NOC has not already secured a quota in that gender.  (USA and Mexico will be ineligible in the women’s event, while Canada and Brazil will be ineligible in the men’s event)
 
Artistic Gymnastics- Top ranked athlete in the men’s and women’s individual all-around events qualify their NOC to Paris. (USA, Canada, and Brazil will be ineligible in the women’s event, while USA, and Canada will be ineligible in the men’s event)
 
Artistic Swimming- Top ranked NOC in the team event will earn an Olympic quota in both the team and duet events. Top ranked NOC in the duet event which has not already qualified will also book their ticket to Paris. 
 
Boxing- Top two athletes in all weight classes (Except women’s 57kg and 60kg, where it’s top four) qualify themselves to Paris. 

Breaking- Top ranked B-Boy and B-Girl qualify for Paris. (USA is ineligible for a quota on the men’s side, as B-Boy Victor already qualified through World Championships, and the second slot can only be obtained through the OQS)
 
Diving- Top ranked athlete in all four individual events will earn a Paris quota for their NOC, as long as the divers have not already secure a quota at the World Aquatic Championships. 
 
USA and Mexico are ineligible in men’s 3m springboard, along with Colombia’s Daniel Restrepo. In men’s 10m platform, Canada’s Rylan Wiens, Brazil’s Issac Souza and Mexico’s Randal Willars are ineligible. USA is also ineligible in women’s 3m springboard, along with Canada’s Pamela Ware. In women’s 10m platform, Mexico is ineligible, along with USA’s Delaney Schnell, Brazil’s Ingrid Oliveira and Canada’s Caeli McKay. 
 
Equestrian- Dressage- Top two NOCs in the team event will qualify for Paris. Top two eligible athletes (having not qualified a team) in the individual event will secure a quota for their NOC. (If USA places within the top two, the quota would go to the third highest ranked NOC, as they’ve already qualified a team)
 
Equestrian- Eventing- Top two NOCs in the team event will qualify for Paris. Top two eligible athletes (having not qualified a team) in the individual event will secure a quota for their NOC. (If USA places within the top two, the quota would go to the third highest ranked NOC, as they’ve already qualified a team)

Equestrian- Jumping- Top three NOCs in the team event will qualify for Paris. Top three eligible athletes (having not qualified a team) in the individual event will secure a quota for their NOC. (Brazil has already qualified a team, so if they place within the top three, the quota would go to the Mexico, as the highest ranked nation at the Jumping Nations Cup)
 
Field Hockey- Men’s and women’s gold medalists earn Olympic tickets for their country. 
 
Handball- Same as above. 

Modern Pentathlon- In the men’s and women’s individual events, the highest ranked athlete, the top two highest ranked athletes from the North America/Caribbean region, and the top two highest ranked athletes from South America/Central America region all qualify themselves to Paris. (Mexico’s Emiliano Hernandez will be ineligible for a quota in the men’s event, as he already booked his ticket at the Modern Pentathlon World Championships)
 
Rhythmic Gymnastics- Top ranked gymnast in the individual all-around event will qualify themselves to Paris, as long as the NOC has not already earned a quota at either the 2022 or 2023 Rhythmic Gymnastics World Championships. Top ranked NOC in the group event will also qualify for Paris. (Brazil will be ineligible for a quota, as they’ve already qualified a team at the 2023 Rythmic Gymnastics World Championships)
 
Sailing- Quotas for North America/Caribbean are allocated separately from quotas for Central America/South America. Men’s and women’s windsurfing, men’s and women‘s kite, men’s and women’s skiff, and mixed multihull award one quota per region. In men’s and women’s dinghy, two quotas are available. 
 
Brazil is ineligible for a quota in men’s windsurfing, and men’s kite. Argentina is ineligible for a quota in women’s dinghy, and mixed multihull. Canada is ineligible for a quota in women’s dinghy. Mexico Is ineligible for a quota in women’s windsurfing. USA is ineligible for a quota in men’s skiff, women’s kite, women’s dinghy, and women’s skiff. 
 
Shooting- Athletes who have already earned a quota for their NOC cannot qualify more spots. One spot is available in each of the men’s and women’s 10m air rifle, men’s and women’s rifle 3 positions, and men’s and women’s 10m air pistol. Two spots are available in men’s 25m rapid fire pistol, women’s 25m pistol, men’s and women’s trap, and men’s and women’s skeet.

USA has qualified a full team (will be ineligible) in men’s trap, men’s skeet, women’s 10m air rifle, women’s 50m rifle 3 positions, and women’s skeet. They’ve also qualified individuals in men’s 10m air rifle, men’s 50m rifle 3 positions, women’s 25m pistol, women’s 10m air pistol, and women’s trap. Chile’s Francisca Crovetto has already secured a quota in women’s skeet, along with Brazil’s Philipe Chateaubrian in men’s 10m air pistol, and Leuris Pupo in men’s 25m rapid fire pistol. 
 
Sport Climbing- Top ranked eligible athlete in the men’s and women’s boulder & lead, and men’s and women’s speed events will qualify themselves to Paris. USA’s Emma Hunt (women’s speed) and Collin Duffy (men’s boulder & lead) will be ineligible for a quota as they’ve already qualified through the Sport Climbing World Championships.
 
Surfing- Top ranked eligible athlete in men’s and women’s shortboard will qualify themselves to Paris. Brazil, USA, and Mexico’s Alan Cleland are ineligible on the men’s side, while USA, and Costa Rica’s Brianna Hennessy are ineligible on the women’s side. 
 
Table Tennis- Top two NOCs in the mixed doubles event will qualify the competing pairs to Paris.
 
Tennis- Finalists of the men’s and women’s singles events will qualify themselves to Paris, providing they are within the top 400 of the ATP/WTA singles rankings, and their NOC has not already reached the quota limit of four athletes (rankings end June 2024)
 
Waterpolo- Men’s and women’s gold medalists earn Olympic tickets for their country. 

Right, Only two weeks after the event finished, here is my final update. I was going to include the next two best boats in each boat class but it looked chaotic and at least in 2019 although probably mostly pandemic related very few boats that narrowly missed out at worlds actually ended up qualifying for the Olympics.
Hit rates Semi finals Finals Podium Winners Olympic qualifiers 122/144 (84.1%) 63/84 (75%) 32/42 (76.2%) 9/14 (64.3%) 91/114 (79.8%) So it held up quite well in terms of predicting medallists and winners so a similar type of ranking may well prove fairly accurate at least at predicting the podium at the Olympics next year. I fell one boat short of hitting my 80% target on qualifiers but sure we will round it up and say we sort of got there. Overestimating Greece's early season form and underestimating New Zealand probably were predictable errors and therefore incorporable into this ranking that probably cost me an extra one or two correct qualifiers.

Meanwhile 3 from the slalom canoeists?  Don't think many of us saw that coming
 
I thought one (C1) and hoped for men's K1 (as there was 15 spots) but didn't see a women's spot popping up. Great stuff

Wow 3 quotas here for is more than I had hoped for!  I was hoping for at least 1 and that we might sneak 2 so to get 3 is wonderful  

Three quotas for  ! Thats beyond all expectation! Yipee!

Three quotas for  ! Thats beyond all expectation! Yipee!

I am hoping @Ogremanstill gives his final summary on rowing.
 
Just noticing that our Badminton team could reach 4. Womens singles and Mens Doubles now in qualifying spots.

If the men's K1 heats are repeated, the quotas would go to
 
 
 
The European games spot would go to  (12th placed nation in European Games)
 
 has the host nation quota
 
If the above happened, the Oceania spot might be re-allocated which would see  get it.
 
20 nations are into the semi final so far (including France)

New Zealand , who have strict select guidelines did not send anyone to the FQR for 2020. Other countries that may do similar are Netherlands, Canada, South Africa.

Not a thing. I missed him during the Summer alright but have no information on him at all. Hope all is ok with him.

Not a thing. I missed him during the Summer alright but have no information on him at all. Hope all is ok with him.

I wouldn't rule out the womens four. You never know if conditions get a bit easier or something. While I would be hopeful of a spot at FOQR if they miss out. I certainly wouldn't be calling it this early.
Also wouldn't rule France out tomorrow in the lightweight double. B finals can get weird. What you have outlined are the most likely outcomes but I just wouldn't be so sure we actually see them.

Tentatively Canada and New Zealand. Look it is a very close semifinal where five different boat could all conceivably win it. France might miss out. Ireland might miss out. The US and their new combination could easily miss out. Technically the US was the slowest in the heats even if they did win theirs. Lets see what happens.

I have said seven before I'll stick with it even if the women's four is very close at this point. I'm pretty confident in the women's lightweight double even if it will be close. The semi final is against switzerland, Canada, USA, New Zealand and France. Its annoying to get France who ended up in the rep but still it could be worse. It is a bit of a everyone could beat anyone else semi-final apart from Switzerland.
The womens four are up against Canada, Denmark, USA, GB and China. Honestly that is a pretty good draw. We are unlikely to beat USA and GB but Canada, Denmark and China are all beatable. Only makes it more dissapointing if we miss out though. Our heat time was pretty slow but I don't know if we should read into that too much.
The other 5 boats should definetely qualify. Our three quarter finals tomorrow are all fairly straightforward draws and obviously the womens pair and womens double are basically home and dry in terms of Olympic qualification.
The quad looked a lot better today than yesterday. This boat has potential but it is tricky to row and just throwing four athletes albeit good ones together in a boat was unlikely to yield immediate results. I also do wonder if we have the coaches to produce a good quad. Quads are more about technique more so than any other boat and good clean technique hasnt exactly been what our previous succesful boats have been built on. Plus I dont trust Fran keane and the men's heavyweight coaches yet. Finding a good double and pair this year is encouraging but this is two years in a row now where the mens squad has on the whole underperformed compared to its talent level.
I suspect what will happen is that despite one being a sculling boat and the other a sweep boat next year we will probably end up either focusing on the four or the quad next year. Could easily see John Kearney/Jack Dorney moving into the quad or vice versa and trying Brian Colsh out with one oar.

This is proving fairly accurate. 11 of 12 semifinalists in the womens pair and all 12 in the women's lightweight double. Men's four was always going to be close between the boats in the b and c finals and in the men's quad well, I might have been a bit high on Ireland's brand new men's quad given how tricky a boat it is to row fast. They improved a lot from their heat in the rep so at least that is encouraging for next year for what is a very young boat.