mpjmcevoy

Oh, definitely SpiderBoy Hamish

I would say Skateboarding was a hiding to nothing from the moment sky pulled out, and I'm now not officially convinced she'll be fit for the Games. I expect the points she already has in the bag to be sufficient to get her there. I would need to know why Tambling DNS before opining on her, but all is far from lost. I quietly expect two quotas there when all is said and done. Climbing has been very fruitful so far. I fully expected Roberts to be our only entrant, and was happy, frankly, to have him, but Hamish and erin have REALLY stepped up, Molly is not out of it, the rest are a bit stranded. But you'd take Hamish and Erin's position right now, you really would! BMX free went about as well as could be hoped on the men's side. On the women's side, Charlotte has long ceased to be the same athlete that won inaugural gold, and that's ok - she did her post Tokyo job by guaranteeing one slot for the team in Glasgow. Sitting in 11 and 12 means they have work to do in Budapest, but again, all is far from lost. I don't care about the breaking and whether B-Boy Shiny is edging out B-B wax'n'Trim, so goodness knows. Away from Shanghai, It's been a decent day for the Brits (and lesser extent the Irish) Irish first, Sharlene Mawdsley did what she's threeatened for a while, ran a major 400m PB and grabbed the OQT! Meanwhile Rhasidat executd poorly in the 200 in LA and still ran a highly exciting 22.4, beating several big names - the news that neither Syd or Femke are doing 400 in Paris made up for any disappointment. Very good runs from nick Griggs and Eiday. Lowry also showing some great form in valhalla. for GB 3 new tickets were booked in Athletics (Megan Keith is a stormer of a talent), Shotgun (Matthew Colley profiting from Aaron Heading's poor last round) Table Tennis (.quite brilliant run from Anna Hursey) Disappointment in the BMX Racing worlds and some odd form in the European Canoe Slalom, although the work there on qualification is long since complete.

Megan Keith OQS and 1st place in main women's event and Brit Champs of Night of 10000m PBs, seat booked on the Eurostar. Patrick Devar won the men's British title, 2nd on night, got the Rome time but not the Paris.

Hmmm....Yee, Stapely and Bentley might be a nice set of post Paris men going forward. Fullager was one I noted to watch a while back, and again, may be well placed to step up post Paris.

Huge result from Anna. Not unexpected exactly, she always had a shout, but the way she did it was superb.

The big one is the Men's Skeet. Need an italian or Ben Llewllin to win for Llewellin to qualify, and set up a mixed team skeet shot.

My mistake.

Is three quotas the maximum an NOC can get?

If Amber can maintain her form, there does come a point where a superstar mixed team of MHS-Dobson-Anning-Neilsen becomes a better medal bet than the single sex relays

With Paris you have to factor in no radios as well.

GBR will have cause to be grateful for the slightly different system in Skateboard, I think. Because the points in the two OQS events rise so steeply, half the field would need to finish top 10 twice to pass Sky if she didn't get another point. Obviously that's just not going to happen, so I think, frankly, she's safe regardless, as are the top 6 or seven. Tambling DNS was a minor disaster, but the first day has worked out well for her in the circumstances - the Prelims have completely gone to form, which means the bulk of those behind her have not overtaken her - she should enter Budapest midtable with her fate broadly in her own hands (unless injury prevents her, then she's stuffed) Strachen in that context had a decent enough result - 21st bagged more points than 22 other people, obviously, and they are almost all now still behind here, she's probably going to emerge in the mid 20s, needing a good budapest result to stand a chance, but she was always going to need that, again because of the steepness. As for the climbers, early days but I'd say they're pretty happy at the moment with how its gone.

Sounds just like something those sneaky b***tards would do!

Looking at the numbers - and the finishers below 16th will now now their ranking points, It seems all but mathematically certain that Sky will qualify regardless. The ranking points rise so steeply around the top it would take pretty unlikely combination for 20 to get ahead of her from where they currently are. Tambling will go into Budapest with her fate broadly in her own hands, mid-table, and Strachan is not completely out of it but would need a MAJOR result in Budapest.

https://olympics.com/en/sport-events/olympic-qualifier-series-2024-shanghai/results/event/skateboarding-womens-park/reports

Well, that's a shambles of an event for GBR, isn't it. Sky injured, Tanbling DNS and Strachen out.

1, I think. Nove Mestro - not sure if Pidcock will do that one this year.

It's my own diginity I worry about - I don't want to sit by the TV as Adrain Moorhouse cheers on H2O-Boy Ben tries to edge out H2O-Boy Cameron,

Breezy's in the wind.

I'm sorry, but I cannot take seriously any event where the competitors are officially referred to as B-Boy Whatever. I just can't. I can live with silly names in urban events - I cheered for Bombette and Sky Brown (think about, Sky Brown is silly. Should have called her Earth) but I draw the line at an official entry list containing 44 individuals all called b-girl. It's be like every single entrant for the 100 metres being called Speedster, or the 50m freestyle Splasher I can't have that. At some stage, you have to value your dignity.

Pitchford looks fairly safe for a rankings slot.

My own predictions at the moment Artistic Swimming Likely : 0 medal Stretch : 1 medal, Women's Pair The GB pair have made sensational improvement in a sport that not a bugger who watches the pair patriotically will understand! There's no way for someone like me to grade them except by reference to previous results, but they seem to be consistently there or therebouts, even at global level. More likely to finish commendably but medalless, but a sneaky bronze is not out of the question Diving Likely : 4 medals : , Spendolini-Sirieux, 10m, W 10mS, M 10mS, M 3m S Stretch : 6 medals, 1 gold : The above plus Laugher 3m, W3 mS. - M10mS for the stretch gold One of GBR's strongest events, despite Chinese dominance. 3 medals would genuinely be the bottom of expectations. Laugher has rediscovered his unfortunate one flakey dive per comp habit, but GBR are undoubtedly the second best nation after China in the absence of Russia, and I would imagine at worst 1 or 2 silvers. Andrea SS has made herself look a woman apart behind the two Chinese, and while Laugher could arguably hit a gold if all went right on the day, Andrea looks more likely to get a medal in my view. The best medal bets, however, are clearly the synchros - 2 are heavy favourites for a medal, 3 likely shouts and all 4 possibles. Swimming - Likely : 1 gold (M4x2 free), 7 medals : M50mFr, M 200mFr, M100mBr, M200mBk, M200IM, M4x100MedR, M4x200FrR, Stretch : 4 gold, 14 medals (golds, M4x 2 free, M100mBr, M200mFr, M 4 x 100mMed), medals : Above + M100mFr , 2nd M200fr, 2nd M200mIM, M4 x 100mFr, X4 x 100mMed, W200mIM, Mens 10k I'm insanely optimistic here - no way GBR win anything like 14 medals - hell, they might well not win the seven - but I've rarely seen a squad with just so much depth - this isn't your grandad's 1 breaststroker and some cabbages squad. The 4 x 200 may be the likeliest gold of the entire Games for GBR, though not certain, of course. Archery Likely : 0 medal Stretch : 1 medal - W Ind I just can't give a chance to a team that's still by no means set to even qualify. Healy of two years ago was bordering on a likely. No longer. Athletics Likely: 4 medals : M4x100, W4x100, W800, WHept Good shout : M100, M400, M1500, W200, W PV, W4x100 Stretch : 19 medals. W100, M200, M800, 2nd W800, 2nd M1500, W1500, W100h, M4x400, X 4x400 Athletics, because of its depth and global appeal is always the Roulette wheel; you spin and you hope. Hence the extra category for those not LIKELY to medal, but in with a very genuine chance, and you'd hope to pick up at least a couple of them in a good wind. The likely 4; the sprint relays, Keely and KJT are the only four who really ought to medal if they maintain fitness and form. The stretch group are those who you would not be shocked to medal in exactly, but you kind of expect not to, and while a medal or two from this group would be lovely, nobody's counting on them. Of these the W1500 is the hardest to admit, but Laura's time may be up - thank goodness she got her global medals in the end. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that there's a miracle marathon bronze in a tactical race, or Cindy 'christmas' Sember ("why does she run at Christmas? Because it's Cindy Sember!") nudges a medal, but that would be heroic wish fulfilment. Overall though, GBR are in the odd position of quite a lot of shots, perhaps more than usual, but no gold medal favourites at all. That said, they must credibly have 5 or 6 gold 'chances' Basketball : Will not enter Badminton : Likely : 0 medals. Neither Kirsty nor the men's doubles team seem likely to trouble the later stages of their events Boxing Canoe Slalom - Likely: 3 medals - MK1, MKX, WKX Stretch : 5 medals - above plus WC1, WK1 Canoe Slalom has quietly become a hitter for GB, not least because of Joe Clarke, who seems to have developed a Laura Kenny like zen about the KX that belies its seeming randomness. Kimberley Wood, likewise seems a strong shout in WKX, even if her colleague Mallory Franklin looks a better traditional medal shout. I think there is still, technically, the possibility of another MKX speciaist taking the second seat behind Joe, as Burgess has not yet been given the place. Canoe Sprint : Unlikely to enter Cycling : BMX freestyle - Likely : 1 medal Stretch: 2 medals, 1 gold BMX racing Likely : 1 medal Stretch: 2 medals, 1 gold Mountain Biking - Likely : 1 medal Stretch: 1 gold Road Cycling Likely : 1 medal (MTT) Stretch: 3 medals, above + WTT and WRR Track Cycling - Likely : 7-9 medals, 2 gold (W Spr and TSpri) Stretch : 10 medals, 5-6 gold, mainly from Finucane and Archibald The team is possibly the strongest its ever been en masse, albeit with gaps (men's road race, men's track sprint events). You can never fully manage madisons, omniums and Kierins, but I could make an argument why GBR are either first or second favourite for almost every track event outside men's sprint events. The big danger is the Italian endurance women, Kopecky and Wild Equestrian - Likely : 4 medals Stretch 5-7 medals, 3 gold GBR are always competitive in Horse Valley, but the rise of Charlotte Fry is crucial. No events are off limits here, and double individual medals cannot be ruled out in those events Field Hockey - Likely 0 medals Stretch 1 medal, Men Fencing : probably no entry Football : No entry. Real dropped ball here, England's women, supplemented with a handful of scots and Welsh would have been serious players here. Gymnastics - Artistic : Likely : 2 medals : MPommel, MVault Stretch 4 medals : above plus MTeam, W Uneven Bars The women's team, god help 'em, are in absolute tatters; the original likely team of Downie Sr, Ondine, Gadirova Jess, Kinsella and a.n other would have been super competitive across almost all events. As it is, Beckie's outside chance on Bars is just about all she is likely to right. The men's team are jjuggling talent and injury. Obviously if Whitlock completes clean, he wins - his D score is simply too high for anyone else. The game is in the if. Jarman on Vault is also likely to be worth a shout, and if everyone hits it, the men's team could be there or there abouts. Rhythmic : nada Trampoline: Likely : 1 medal, Women Golf Likely: 0 Stretch : 2 medals, 1 in each event. Golf is just about a crapshoot as a sport at the best of times, but GBR should get 3 shots in the men's event, and a punchers chance in the women's Handball : will not enter Judo - Likely 1 medal - Chelsie Giles Stretch - 2, Lucy Renshaw IF GB boxing remains strongish, and GB Taekwondo are back on an upward curve, GB Judo is a shambles, yet again elevated by the luck of having a real star in Giles. Modern Pentathlon - Likely, 1 medal, Men's Stretch, 2 medals 1 gold Rowing - Likely : 2 golds, 5 medals Stretch : 8 medals, 4 golds Rugby sevens : Stretch 1 medal : GBR have been in decent form recently. If they can keep that going, get a bit of luck, a medal is doable. Sailing Likely 3-4 medals, 1 gold Stretch 5-6 medals 2 gold Shooting : Likely 0 medals Stretch 3 medals This is an 'all right on the night' situation. My gut says 1 medal will be found between Macintosh and Amber Surfing : No entrant Skateboarding - Likely:1 Medal - If She's fit, Sky Brown should be there at the pointy end. Sport Climbing - Likely :1 Medal - Toby Roberts looks a major prospect. Taekwondo - Likely 2 medals Stretch3- 4 medals Tennis : stretch, 1 medal, men's doubles. GBR has two of the worlds best specialists, and Dan Evans is super handy Table Tennis Likely : zilch Triathlon - Likey 3 medals, 1 in each event Stretch 4 medals, 1 gold Not inconceivable GBR get two medals in the women's event if Georgia Taylor Brown and Potter are both at the front of affairs - two of the strongest runners in the field. Volleyball 0 medals Weightlifting - Stretch 1 medal - if she were fully fit, Emily Campbell would be a likely. but she's not, and hasn't been for a while.. Wrestling : no entrant So my conservative estimate is around 55 medals and around 18 gold My dreaming estimate ia closer to double that on both counts. I fully expect my caution to be closer to reality.

At this stage Bianka is an injury sub. Odd how quickly it changes. The results are very encouraging in what is, in some senses, a transitional period. Sinden looks a very strong gold shout, Jones appears back on the upward swing and medal viability,though not the slam dunk she once was, but cunningham is the real gift of the cycle, quickly becoming a real player in his weight class. McGowan's rise is also a salutary lesson that there is something to be said for getting 'ring' time in non-Olympic weightclasses while waiting for your chance behind a strong incumbant, something I hope Powell and Goodman notice. Powell, in particular looks to me like she could push on one weight up. hopefully Williams can come back to some form for the next cycle.

Ran most of it alone too. Extraordinary.

One of the things that used to annoy me about GBR presentation was the complete naive dimwittery about "voting for neighbours" when it was usually a diaspora vote. They used to get annoyed at the lack of votes from Ireland while Ireland did well out fo them, assuming it was 'lack of neighbourliness', when in fact it was simply that Northern Ireland nationalists could vote for the country they were loyal to, Ireland.