There is a lot of nonsense being spoken about how GB is doing so far. How many likely medals have we actually missed? Jade Jones has been mentioned but she was up against an opponent who she has had problems against in the past and who won a bronze medal in Rio when competing for Iran. Basically she hasn't able to compete in international competition for three years while her refugee status is being sorted out or she would almost certainly have been seeded here. Jones's defeat was a disappointment but can't be considered a shattering shock given the quality of her opponent.
Peter McGrail has also been mentioned. Again he was unlucky to draw another tough opponent. It was his loss in the resumed qualifying tournament that cost him as he would almost certainly have been one of the four seeded boxers otherwise. He was an example of an athlete who was hurt by the delayed Olympics. Others like judo's Chelsie Giles benefited from it.
In terms of sports it was obvious that rowing was going to be weaker following retirements after 2016. 33 out of 41 rowing squad members are making their olympic debuts. I still believe 2-3 medals are possible starting with the men's four. The eight haven't suddenly become bad rowers overnight and will I think turn it round. The women's lightweight double sculls and maybe the pair and men's quad may also still challenge for medals.
In taekwondo we only had five competitors to begin with and despite Jones's loss we could still match the three medals we won last time with Walkden still to come and both Williams and Cho capable of medalling on their day.
In swimming some are suggesting that we are not doing as well as we did at the Europeans which is not surprising given that this is a global event. We have plenty of medal chances to come from Peaty, Scott (×2), Dean, Proud, Renshaw, Dawson and maybe Wood, Guy, Wilby and Greenbank. Add the men's 4x200 free, 4x100 medley and mixed medley and we still have strong reasons to believe that we can surpass the six medals we won in Rio.
Overall we are going to do worse than we did in London and Rio but the period after hosting a games is always difficult as top athletes retire or in some cases go on too long. Rowing, gymnastics and cycling are all going to do less well, partly for this reason but also because other countries have seen what we have done and upped their games. Added to which many of the coaches who contributed to that success have now gone on to work for other countries. There will be some compensation from swimming and maybe boxing but all in all I'm expecting a medal haul of around 50 which I think will be surpassed only by the USA, China, Russia and Japan with their vastly greater resources.
Instead of hand wringing after just two days of competition wait until we see how the Games pan out as a whole before casting judgement. There have already been plenty of shocks as some of us were predicting after the disruptions of the past two years and there will be more to come.