Rafa Maciel

Prepping for the action to get underway, have stumbled across a couple of quota predictions - presented here for information only and not as a representation of my own expectations Men's 49er "Virtually Certain to Qualify": Lambriex / Van De Werken Botin / Trittel "Likely to Qualify": McHardie / McKenzie Buksak / Wierzbicki Peters / Sterritt Sime Fantela / Mihovil Fantela Ian Barrows / Hans Henken They then have 16 nations fighting it out for the remaining 3 quotas. Women's 49er FX "Virtually Certain to Qualify": Odile Van Aanholt / Annette Duetz Martine Gracel / Kahena Kunze Vilma Bobeck / Rebecca Netzler Stephanie Roble / Maggie Shea "Likely to Qualify": Tamara Echegoyen / Paula Barcelo Isaura Maenhaut / Anouk Geurts Helene Naess / Marie Ronningen They then have 15 nations who could potentially fill the remaining 3 berths. Source: International 49er Class Association » 2023 World Sailing Championship

Can't say that I am overly impressed with their online presence - they can't even put the entry lists up by crew.

So compared to Tokyo, are the only nation to lose their 2nd rider whilst & will all gain a second rider in the time trial. are currently in a position which would allow them to send a second rider for the time trial but to only have 1 rider in the road race.

Solid results - just marginally behind what they managed at the World Champs where they were the 6th placed European nation after dressage - although worth noting that Ugolotti is on a different ride this time around.

Belgium likely to be in the mix as well - probably ahead of Netherlands.

I agree with pretty much all of you picks although if there is a reallocation of USA's 2022 WC quota, I don't think it would go to France - I think it would go to Argentina as you cannot use a reallocated quota to secure a second rider. For the OQS, injuries aside, it's difficult to see a scenario where Martin, Nakamura, Jeanjean and Reilly don't finish inside the top 6 - they've certainly shown the consistency that is likely to be needed to achieve it. For USA, probably the favourite is likely to be Marcus Christopher. Like the other 4, he's been pretty consistent across the '23 world cup series. Like you say, the 6th spot is likely to be a coin toss. I don't think it is going to go to another American. I know Nick Bruce took the silver in Glasgow, but that was a huge step up from his '23 world cup performances. My pick would probably Jose Torres Gil. So my prediction at the moment is Olympic Qualifier Series Logan MARTIN NAKAMURA Rimu Anthony JEANJEAN KIERAN REILLY Marcus Christopher Jose Torres Gil 2022 World Champs 2023 World Champs - initially had thought likely that South Africa would reject continental quota but looking bat at 2020, I see they accepted continental quota for BMX racing so no I am not so sure. Reallocated Host Quota

A lot of quotas going to be earned over the next 10 days and will have high hopes of maintaining their 100% of securing a place in every class at the first opportunity.

Roberts has had a pretty mediocre week by his standards, so it's good to see him putting in a strong performance when it really matters (at least as far as Olympic qualification is concerned). His bouldering doesn't look like it is close to the level it was during the world cup events so is relying on his lead work to keep him competitive.

I think it is a good shout that the Olympics.com article probably predates the latest version of the qualification document. On the issue of a single athlete qualifying 2 quotas - it does kind of feel like it shouldn't be possible - but when I look at the qualification pathways in other sports including diving, shooting, trampoline, the document specifically includes a clause which prohibits a single athlete securing 2 quotas. You'd like to think that they were aware that this scenario could occur and by not including it in the document would suggest that they were happy to accept it. If we accept that the same athlete can secure 2 quotas, then good chance that it would benefit on men's side and on the women's

Not sure about that - may be the case in the Nation's Cup but looking back over the schedules for Euros and Worlds, definitely looks like previous they had the scratch and tempo race in afternoon session and then elimination and points in the evening.

Trampoline isn't going to be the easiest sport to present as a pure ranking qualification until after the world champs because the rankings wont come into play until the first 8 quotas are awarded and then some NOCs will be able to qualify a 2nd place via the ranking list - it's almost as messy as the qualification process for BMX Freestyle

But could you imagine the backlash had every other world champion been given a watch to celebrate and they didn't do the same for Ricardo Ten Argiles?

It seems a bit weird that they have scheduled all 4 of the women's omnium in the same evening session whereas the men's event had the scratch race in the afternoon session

No - a country can take 2 quotas if they have 2 athletes finish in the top 3 In addition, quotas are awarded to named athletes so anyone qualifying here at the worlds, won't be eligible for the remaining qualification events (continental events in Q4 2023 and 2024 OQS)

So..... I'm not sure that the author has presented that in the correct way. If we look at the qualification document, from the last line of the paragraph below, it is clear that the World Champ results can result in a NOC obtaining a 2nd quota. From my reading of the qualification document, the paragraph quoted from the Olympics.com article relates to the reallocation of quotas, and specifically, to the reallocation of NOC quotas earned in 2022/2023 World Champs: We can ignore Method A - that's the simplest part of this qualification document . Method B relates to the reallocation of the 5 quotas obtained at the 2022 and 2023 World Champs. In the event that those quotas are reallocated - and theoretically, they should only be reallocated if a NOC obtains 2 named quotas in the OQS (likely the chase of for women), to provide continental representation (we know and will benefit from this) or an NOC rejects the quota ( have rejected continental quotas in the past) - then they will be reallocated to nations who have not already qualified. Happy for my interpretation to be shot down by others, but that's how I see it.

Have crunched the numbers for Men's Team Pursuit qualification and route back to qualification is probably not as bleak as a couple of the commentators had made out. (NB - the UCI won't update the ranking list until end of the WC so I am assuming that my calculations are correct ) As it currently stands, quotas are pretty much guaranteed for and probably . That leaves and to fight it out for the final 2 spots so I'll concentrate comments on those 3 nations. The scores on the doors for those 3 nations currently are: 4210 3840 3690 Next round of points will be the continental champs. Belgium - Finished 5th in the 2023 EC which was their best result for many years. They followed that up by finishing as the 5th European team at the worlds this week. Projected EC 2024 finish: 5th for 630 points. China - Finished 2nd in the 2023 Asian Champs having not contested the event for a couple of years. They were 5 seconds behind Japan but had 5 second cushion over Kazakhstan so should be able to replicate the result in 2024. Projected AC finish: 2nd for 810 points. Great Britain - Second behind Italy at the 2023 EC and they are always there or thereabouts but Europe is probably the most competitive region for track cycling so GB could finish anywhere from 1st to 4th depending on which squad they put out. Would expect them to medal and good chance that they finish top of the podium. Projected EC 2024 finish: 1st for 900 points. Projected new totals 4840 4650 4590 So going into next year's Nations Cup series if finish in the top 4 in the first 2 races, they would pretty much seal their spot without needing to worry about the final nations cup event but worst case scenario, would need to finish at least 1 or 2 places above China in both of the counting events and can overtake Belgium if they finish at least 2 or 3 places above them.

Looking at the available results from competitions over the last 18 months, my current expectations for qualification in women's freestyle looks like this: Host Quota (Laury Perez) Olympic Qualifier Series (Hannah Roberts) (Iveta Miculycova) (Kim Lee Muller) (Charlotte Worthington) 2022 World Champ Quotas 2023 World Champ Quotas

No - each NOC can only qualify 1 athlete at each event.

Yes, there will need to be an Oceanian qualifier and that will come from the '22 WC results ( Sarah Nicki finished in 22nd) but not sure which of or would miss out. (Working assumption would Ducarroz)

Technically Roberts hasn't qualified as an individual yet - the quotas from '22 and '23 WC are awarded to the nation rather than the individual so at the moment the quota list would be 2x , 1x , , But I take your point that the quotas from the WCs will end up being reallocated after the OQS next year.

heading for their best performance at a track world champs since 2016 - which coincidentally, were held in London - showing the power of a home crowd.

Tentative quotas for in the women's event

Because we weren't sure whether that was the case

That's my understanding

The whole thing is an absolute clusterf**k but as I understand it, the last paragraph only comes into play when all the continents have a representative. 2022 results will be used to give South America a quota and 2023 will be used to give Africa a quota.