We have elections in the UK, this Thursday, so if you are a politics nut like me, I thought I would give a little rundown of what to look out for.
Blackpool South By-Election
Called after the conservative MP was caught being bribed, the seat will most likely be taken by labour. The reform result will be interesting (if it is high that is bad news for the Tories, as vote splitting of the right could hand a lot of seats of Labour at the general election.
Local council elections
These elections are only in England, and in 107/153 total councils, with the majority electing just 1/3 of the councillors. These elections were last held in 2021 when the conservatives were having a "vaccine boost", so we could see some large swings in some areas.
Although local issues play a part, the general voting trends will likely show how each party is performing. Keep an eye out for the projected national share of votes, which shows how the country would have voted if this was a general election.
The conservatives and labour are both defending around 900 seats each, with the Liberal democrats on 405 and Greens on 118. The conservatives are expected to lose around 400 and all the other parties to make gains. In terms of actual councils Labour are defending 45, the Conservatives 18 and the Lib Dems 10.
The councils to keep an eye on are
- Adur (CON loss)
- Bolton (LAB gain)
- Brentwood (LDM gain)
- Bristol (GREEN gain)
- Cannock Chase (LAB gain)
- Dorset (CON loss / LDM gain)
- Dudley (CON loss)
- Gloucester (CON loss)
- Hartlepool (LAB gain)
- Hyndburn (LAB gain)
- Milton Keynes (CON loss)
- Portsmouth (LDM gain)
- Redditch (CON loss)
- Rushmore (CON loss)
- Solihull (CON loss)
- Tunbridge Wells (LDM gain)
- Wokingham (LDM gain)
London Assembly election
Labour will look to take control of the London Assembly, they need to gain 2 seats to have a majority, but it is certainly not a formality.
Mayors
11 regional mayors will be elected with labour defending 6, conservatives 2 and 3 being new positions. Realistically labour could sweep all 11 but Tees Valley will be on a knife edge (47% each on Opinion polls)
Police and Crime Commissioners
The conservatives are defending 30 seats, labour 8 and Plaid Cymru 1. These elections will now be first past the post compared to supplementary vote which could mean the anti tory vote is split. You would expect labour gains but the scale is quite unknown
Overall these elections are a litmus test for the parties, but I wouldn't expect many political shockwaves from them, and the bigger vote will likely be held later in the year.