As we are heading into Doha, where my hopes will likely be affirmed or destroyed,
I thought I would give my 2 cents on what Paris could hold for British Swimming.
Men’s 50m freestyle - Ben Proud is definately a contender having won Gold in 2022 and Bronze in 2023. Currently, I think Mcevoy has put gold out of reach, but he certainly has the ability to throw it away. (100m freestyle Rio 2016). Lewis Burras’ PB would have got 4th in Fukuoka (0.1 off bronze), so he is an outside chance for a medal, but fairly unlikely.
Men’s 100m freestyle - This event is stacked, and there are around 10 athletes who could win. Matt Richards is definately up there, although it would require several off form swims from the likes of Chalmers, Popovici, Pan and Alexy.
Men’s 200m freestyle - If Popovici is in form then we can say goodbye to the gold medal, if not, then we have a chance of another 1-2. I think that the domestic battle will help them push each other, and I am hopeful that we might see a Brit under 1:44.
Men’s 400-1500m freestyle - With the likes of Wiffen, Hafanoui, Finke, Short, Paltrinieri and Wellbrock the won’t be a British distance medal in Paris. The only way is that if Pardoe doubles up, although that is a long shot and even if he does it would still be incredibly tough.
Men’s fly- The emergence of Peters does give Guy a rest, but I think medal chances are slim to none. A prime Guy could challenge, especially without Milak and Dressel, but I think Jimmy will probably focus more on the 200m free this year. I did hear that Richards wanted to swim some fly this year, so you never know.
Men’s Backstroke - Greenbank looked good in Otopeni, so he can definately challenge for a medal. With the absence of Rylov and Kolesnikov the 200m will be a bit more open this year. Ollie Morgan might be able to drop enough to get into the final this time, and maybe even the Back leg on the medley relay, but a medal seems too much of a stretch.
Men’s Breaststroke - Peaty may not be in the form he once was, but I think he can still challenge for a medal. Wilby on the other hand seems to be in decline from his 2019 silver. The strength in the 200m means it is unlikely for a medal, but you never know.
Men’s IM - Scott and Dean can certainly challenge in the 200m, but I think Marchand and Shun are too good for gold to be an option. Shun is inconsistent so the same podium from Fukuoka could be on the cards. I doubt Scott will swim the 400m, but the reemergence of Litchfield to the squad could be a small medal chance, but only for bronze, and it requires a lot of misfires by other swimmers for this to happen.
Men’s free Relays- The 4x200 has to be the favourite by far, and the 4x100 should contend if they qualify. There are 4 nations who could all swim under 3:10 on their day, so it could be tough.
Men’s Medley Relay- This really depends on Adam wether we can challenge for Gold, a mid 58 Adam could challenge for Bronze.
Womens 50-200m freestyle - Anna may contend for a medal in the ‘splash and dash’ but I think Sjoestrom already has gold. There are several swimmers ahead of her but you never know. Anna and Freya both PB’ed in the 100m in Otopeni but I think that like the men’s the global strength in depth is too much for them. Freya could sneak a bronze in the 200m but she would need to drop significantly.
Womens 400-1500m Freestyle- To say our chances in slim is an understatement. Blocksidge has dropped a lot this year, but I think it might be tough for her to qualify.
Women’s fly - No chances in the 100m, but Laura Stephens could medal in the 200m, It is an outside chance, but there pressure of an olympic final can do strange things, especially in such a taxing event.
Women’s Backstroke - Regan and Kaylee are miles above everyone else so Gold and silver have already gone. If Kathleen Dawson returns to form she could sneak a bronze but I doubt it. In the 200m, Medi and Katie could medal but again, I’m not confident.
Women’s Breaststroke - Since Molly retirement, there have been no medal contending British Breaststrokers,
Women’s IM - Abbie Wood was so close in Tokyo, but I feel like the field has moved away since then. Although there is a chance Mcintosh swims the 800m free instead of the 200m IM, and as Abbie may have had a lighter schedule than some other swimmer( the race is on the last day), you can never say never. In the 400, Freya is about 4 seconds of bronze, but those time drops arent impossible.
Women’s relays - The 4x100 and 4x200m were both 4th in Fukuoka, but DQs are always possible. The Women’s medley squandered a huge chance in Tokyo, and I’m not even confident if they can qualify by British Swimmings standards.
Mixed Medley Relay - I think the Chinese are too strong in this event but a medal could be on the cards depending on Adam.
Overall, I am fairly confident heading into Paris, and there is a Chance we improve on Tokyo, however, it have a sinking feeling that we will beat out Rio record of the most 4th places.
Feel free to comment on my judgements, as I’m sure im being a bit too optimistic.