mpjmcevoy

Breezy's in the wind.

I'm sorry, but I cannot take seriously any event where the competitors are officially referred to as B-Boy Whatever. I just can't. I can live with silly names in urban events - I cheered for Bombette and Sky Brown (think about, Sky Brown is silly. Should have called her Earth) but I draw the line at an official entry list containing 44 individuals all called b-girl. It's be like every single entrant for the 100 metres being called Speedster, or the 50m freestyle Splasher I can't have that. At some stage, you have to value your dignity.

Pitchford looks fairly safe for a rankings slot.

My own predictions at the moment Artistic Swimming Likely : 0 medal Stretch : 1 medal, Women's Pair The GB pair have made sensational improvement in a sport that not a bugger who watches the pair patriotically will understand! There's no way for someone like me to grade them except by reference to previous results, but they seem to be consistently there or therebouts, even at global level. More likely to finish commendably but medalless, but a sneaky bronze is not out of the question Diving Likely : 4 medals : , Spendolini-Sirieux, 10m, W 10mS, M 10mS, M 3m S Stretch : 6 medals, 1 gold : The above plus Laugher 3m, W3 mS. - M10mS for the stretch gold One of GBR's strongest events, despite Chinese dominance. 3 medals would genuinely be the bottom of expectations. Laugher has rediscovered his unfortunate one flakey dive per comp habit, but GBR are undoubtedly the second best nation after China in the absence of Russia, and I would imagine at worst 1 or 2 silvers. Andrea SS has made herself look a woman apart behind the two Chinese, and while Laugher could arguably hit a gold if all went right on the day, Andrea looks more likely to get a medal in my view. The best medal bets, however, are clearly the synchros - 2 are heavy favourites for a medal, 3 likely shouts and all 4 possibles. Swimming - Likely : 1 gold (M4x2 free), 7 medals : M50mFr, M 200mFr, M100mBr, M200mBk, M200IM, M4x100MedR, M4x200FrR, Stretch : 4 gold, 14 medals (golds, M4x 2 free, M100mBr, M200mFr, M 4 x 100mMed), medals : Above + M100mFr , 2nd M200fr, 2nd M200mIM, M4 x 100mFr, X4 x 100mMed, W200mIM, Mens 10k I'm insanely optimistic here - no way GBR win anything like 14 medals - hell, they might well not win the seven - but I've rarely seen a squad with just so much depth - this isn't your grandad's 1 breaststroker and some cabbages squad. The 4 x 200 may be the likeliest gold of the entire Games for GBR, though not certain, of course. Archery Likely : 0 medal Stretch : 1 medal - W Ind I just can't give a chance to a team that's still by no means set to even qualify. Healy of two years ago was bordering on a likely. No longer. Athletics Likely: 4 medals : M4x100, W4x100, W800, WHept Good shout : M100, M400, M1500, W200, W PV, W4x100 Stretch : 19 medals. W100, M200, M800, 2nd W800, 2nd M1500, W1500, W100h, M4x400, X 4x400 Athletics, because of its depth and global appeal is always the Roulette wheel; you spin and you hope. Hence the extra category for those not LIKELY to medal, but in with a very genuine chance, and you'd hope to pick up at least a couple of them in a good wind. The likely 4; the sprint relays, Keely and KJT are the only four who really ought to medal if they maintain fitness and form. The stretch group are those who you would not be shocked to medal in exactly, but you kind of expect not to, and while a medal or two from this group would be lovely, nobody's counting on them. Of these the W1500 is the hardest to admit, but Laura's time may be up - thank goodness she got her global medals in the end. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that there's a miracle marathon bronze in a tactical race, or Cindy 'christmas' Sember ("why does she run at Christmas? Because it's Cindy Sember!") nudges a medal, but that would be heroic wish fulfilment. Overall though, GBR are in the odd position of quite a lot of shots, perhaps more than usual, but no gold medal favourites at all. That said, they must credibly have 5 or 6 gold 'chances' Basketball : Will not enter Badminton : Likely : 0 medals. Neither Kirsty nor the men's doubles team seem likely to trouble the later stages of their events Boxing Canoe Slalom - Likely: 3 medals - MK1, MKX, WKX Stretch : 5 medals - above plus WC1, WK1 Canoe Slalom has quietly become a hitter for GB, not least because of Joe Clarke, who seems to have developed a Laura Kenny like zen about the KX that belies its seeming randomness. Kimberley Wood, likewise seems a strong shout in WKX, even if her colleague Mallory Franklin looks a better traditional medal shout. I think there is still, technically, the possibility of another MKX speciaist taking the second seat behind Joe, as Burgess has not yet been given the place. Canoe Sprint : Unlikely to enter Cycling : BMX freestyle - Likely : 1 medal Stretch: 2 medals, 1 gold BMX racing Likely : 1 medal Stretch: 2 medals, 1 gold Mountain Biking - Likely : 1 medal Stretch: 1 gold Road Cycling Likely : 1 medal (MTT) Stretch: 3 medals, above + WTT and WRR Track Cycling - Likely : 7-9 medals, 2 gold (W Spr and TSpri) Stretch : 10 medals, 5-6 gold, mainly from Finucane and Archibald The team is possibly the strongest its ever been en masse, albeit with gaps (men's road race, men's track sprint events). You can never fully manage madisons, omniums and Kierins, but I could make an argument why GBR are either first or second favourite for almost every track event outside men's sprint events. The big danger is the Italian endurance women, Kopecky and Wild Equestrian - Likely : 4 medals Stretch 5-7 medals, 3 gold GBR are always competitive in Horse Valley, but the rise of Charlotte Fry is crucial. No events are off limits here, and double individual medals cannot be ruled out in those events Field Hockey - Likely 0 medals Stretch 1 medal, Men Fencing : probably no entry Football : No entry. Real dropped ball here, England's women, supplemented with a handful of scots and Welsh would have been serious players here. Gymnastics - Artistic : Likely : 2 medals : MPommel, MVault Stretch 4 medals : above plus MTeam, W Uneven Bars The women's team, god help 'em, are in absolute tatters; the original likely team of Downie Sr, Ondine, Gadirova Jess, Kinsella and a.n other would have been super competitive across almost all events. As it is, Beckie's outside chance on Bars is just about all she is likely to right. The men's team are jjuggling talent and injury. Obviously if Whitlock completes clean, he wins - his D score is simply too high for anyone else. The game is in the if. Jarman on Vault is also likely to be worth a shout, and if everyone hits it, the men's team could be there or there abouts. Rhythmic : nada Trampoline: Likely : 1 medal, Women Golf Likely: 0 Stretch : 2 medals, 1 in each event. Golf is just about a crapshoot as a sport at the best of times, but GBR should get 3 shots in the men's event, and a punchers chance in the women's Handball : will not enter Judo - Likely 1 medal - Chelsie Giles Stretch - 2, Lucy Renshaw IF GB boxing remains strongish, and GB Taekwondo are back on an upward curve, GB Judo is a shambles, yet again elevated by the luck of having a real star in Giles. Modern Pentathlon - Likely, 1 medal, Men's Stretch, 2 medals 1 gold Rowing - Likely : 2 golds, 5 medals Stretch : 8 medals, 4 golds Rugby sevens : Stretch 1 medal : GBR have been in decent form recently. If they can keep that going, get a bit of luck, a medal is doable. Sailing Likely 3-4 medals, 1 gold Stretch 5-6 medals 2 gold Shooting : Likely 0 medals Stretch 3 medals This is an 'all right on the night' situation. My gut says 1 medal will be found between Macintosh and Amber Surfing : No entrant Skateboarding - Likely:1 Medal - If She's fit, Sky Brown should be there at the pointy end. Sport Climbing - Likely :1 Medal - Toby Roberts looks a major prospect. Taekwondo - Likely 2 medals Stretch3- 4 medals Tennis : stretch, 1 medal, men's doubles. GBR has two of the worlds best specialists, and Dan Evans is super handy Table Tennis Likely : zilch Triathlon - Likey 3 medals, 1 in each event Stretch 4 medals, 1 gold Not inconceivable GBR get two medals in the women's event if Georgia Taylor Brown and Potter are both at the front of affairs - two of the strongest runners in the field. Volleyball 0 medals Weightlifting - Stretch 1 medal - if she were fully fit, Emily Campbell would be a likely. but she's not, and hasn't been for a while.. Wrestling : no entrant So my conservative estimate is around 55 medals and around 18 gold My dreaming estimate ia closer to double that on both counts. I fully expect my caution to be closer to reality.

At this stage Bianka is an injury sub. Odd how quickly it changes. The results are very encouraging in what is, in some senses, a transitional period. Sinden looks a very strong gold shout, Jones appears back on the upward swing and medal viability,though not the slam dunk she once was, but cunningham is the real gift of the cycle, quickly becoming a real player in his weight class. McGowan's rise is also a salutary lesson that there is something to be said for getting 'ring' time in non-Olympic weightclasses while waiting for your chance behind a strong incumbant, something I hope Powell and Goodman notice. Powell, in particular looks to me like she could push on one weight up. hopefully Williams can come back to some form for the next cycle.

Ran most of it alone too. Extraordinary.

One of the things that used to annoy me about GBR presentation was the complete naive dimwittery about "voting for neighbours" when it was usually a diaspora vote. They used to get annoyed at the lack of votes from Ireland while Ireland did well out fo them, assuming it was 'lack of neighbourliness', when in fact it was simply that Northern Ireland nationalists could vote for the country they were loyal to, Ireland.

Worth noting that EBU includes half a dozen african and half a dozen West asian countries - it is not entirely restricted to the continent of Europe - after all neither Malta or Cypres are geographically in Europe.

If you pick Stapely, or someone like him, you are gambling 1) on the relay and 2) as superdomestique for Yee to make sure he's not left on the swim - if Yee is at or near the front at the bike phase, he becomes big favourite (notwithstanding Pearson's brilliant run yesterday). The problem is everyone knows how to beat him, it's just do they have the lungs for it. If you were taking an absolute outside punt for an individual medal it would and could only be Stapely, anyway, but it would be the outsidest of outside punts. My question basically is how good is his swim-bike - i.e.can he superdom for Yee if needed to drag him back to the peloton, and be up there or thereabout as a lead off man for the relay

On that form, I wouldn't take Brownlee. My understanding is that they can more or less take who they want for the relay, the 30th place is irrelevant. On that showing, I'd pick on pure form with relay in mind, and that' probably Max Stapely. worth noting that Hugo Milner had a terrible bike, but then had more or less the second fastest run split. Brownlee had by far the slowest run split. Thought Waugh was a little underwhelming/undercooked here, but we'll see in Calgiari. on the Para side wins for Cashmore and Ellis welcome, as were the strong races from the Irish/NIrish sisters.

Anything over 4.90 is pretty much evens to win her gold.

What does that lineup on the men's side mean for Conor Hall? Does he need a Turkey - Netherlands final, or would a France-Netherlands final suffice?

I have one very indirect source who has told me that it'll be VERY difficult to get compound in, simply because the IOC think the general public won't get the difference between the bows, and the scoring system in Compound is 'unmodernised'. She thinks field archery, of some description has a better shout, because it could be done with much smaller numbers, and would be televisually quite distinct. However, even that is only likely if nations agreed either to scrap the recurve teams competitions apart from XP, or make them teams of two - this would apparently free about 32 quotas for two very small fields in field archery, but world Archery is not really interested in that sort of compromise (can't blame them). Apparently WA is content to have gotten the extra mixed event without giving up its teams as it is.

Are the live results for this available anywhere?

I thought that might work better in the Modern Pentathlon, in keeping with the cavalryman escape theme... My 'wild archery' idea is probably closer to the early Rambo films... how much cooler would it be if the disciplines were officially called 'Robin Hood', 'William Tell', 'Jack Rambo' and 'Dothraki Screamer' .....

As I understand it, the skill set is not actually directly transferable - there is, I think, a much greater strength element in recurve, where compound is more like darts - all about precision/steadiness. Personally, I want them to go get inventive and have a form of moving field archery in actual forests, robin hood style. all this William Tell fixed position, fixed target stuff is all well and good, but I think Archery is missing a trick not asking to ake over the Mountain Bike course when the bikers are done with it, and creating a real test in the trees! You could set off in pairs through an eighteen target forest, it'd be a bit like golf, at timed intervals, interesting fixed camera positions - it'd be a gas!

Make that two non-Olympic finals, with ella gibson making the women's compound decider.

Doesn't seem to have kicked on for Adam.

Of course they are into the final of the one competition that doesn't have Olympic quotas on offer! Similar issues in Mixed team skeet in the shooting!

I have only one thing to say after watching that last night (under duress!) Bring back the Turkey.

It was, and the original 'pitch' was to not have a world cup any more, and just the Olympics - but wiser heads prevailed as by the time the sport had got into the Games, everyone - IOC included - agreed it would be a backward step to end the world Cup - instead, arguably with the European Games, you're moving to a set of parallel competitions - the Olympics is the 'showcase', the World Cup is the World Championship, and the World Series is the pro circuit.

One has to remember that, although it is global, the Olympic Games is not a 'world championships' for the sport - it's not supposed to be, and given sevens has arguably two world championship formats already - world series and world 7s cup - it doesn't need to be. Obviously, as an Olympic comp, it is important in its own right, but it is also, like most of the teams sports, a big demonstrated event - a taster to create more interest in the sport. And as such it is going to e - and ought to be - smaller, and more driven by representation than pure merit.

I thought I read that the winners of the four individual events at Championships would get selection, but that's seems a hell of a gamble.

I mean Mawdsley going toe to toe with Bol was amazing enough, but Adeleke is ENTIRELY different gravy

Irish sport, historically, has been skewed heavily towards non-Olympic sport - notable GAA, horse racing, golf, rugby, snooker and in the North motorcycles. In olympic terms we were good boxers, and we occasionally pulled a good runner. Facilities and talent pools for anything else was pretty limited. And with a small population, we weren't getting any benefits from numbers. Recently, we've started to produce decent rowers, particularly at lightweight, plus talented one offs in non traditional sport, the stand out of which is of course Rhys McCleneghan. Rhasidat is lightly different as there has been a flurry of good female sprinters, one of which you'd have hoped would have turned up trumps - we saw Gina Akpe-Moses, Molly Scott, ciara Neville and Patience Jumbo Gula come through, plus we now have Sarah Healy and Sonia O'Sullivan's daughter at middle distance. But we still don't have a single Indoor velodrome, hardly any world class pools, and a limited gymnastics infrastructure, and we share the Home Nations tendency to spread ourselves thin, having a crack at everything.