mpjmcevoy

Touch and go, I understand....fingers crossed.

The Paralympic route is the fairest. It would have the advantage of being 'gender affirming' - there would be no objection to calling the event say Women's sprint cycling TS1, where TS1 is the transgender categorisation, and I don't see how we can have an s14 category in swimming for intellectual disability that doesn't imply a learning difficulty, but we can't have a category that acknowledges gender dysphoria. and as for numbers there are significantly more people with a transgender identitiy than there are blind people, or people of short statutre, or people with double, above the knee amputations. As for a 'queer olympics' (shudder at word queer), there are both the Gay Games and the OutGames already.

It is a kinder answer than the strictly logical/rational one - biologically Caster, Niyonsaba and Wambui are male, albeit with a significant DSD condition (In Caster's case at least, almost certainly 46 XY 5-ARD, which is an absolutely male specific condition). By the letter of the law, they should be kept out of all female only events. WA however have attempted to acknowledge the difficult social reality here for a group who would never be able to compete equally with other males for precisely the same medical reason. If you want the right, right answer, then they should be excluded from female events altogether. There's nothing knee-jerk about that, it's the rational conclusion when their conditions are discovered. WA have done the best they can to mitigate that harsh rationality.

Sanita Puspure and Thomas Barr, or failing that Katie Mullan and Billy Dardis, the captain of the two team sports we've qualified, the first time we've qualified two teams in two sports since 1948 Jason and Laura Trott - Greatest male and female Olympians, married couple, both going for outright records, and it would just be cute. Failing that, Helen Glover and Ed Clancy.

If Hubbard had not been considered eligible, Charisma Tarrent, the Aussie lifter, would have got a 'World Ranking' place, rather than the Oceania place she has taken. This would have freed up that Oceania place, which as I understand it would have gone to a young Tongan, Nini Manumua. It would be great if we did not conflate transgender inclusion, which is one difficult issue, with inclusion of athletes with rare intersex conditions (e.g. Caster Semenya) which is also difficult, but an entirely separate issue. Caster was born, registered and raised as female. She has always, socially if not biologically, been a woman. While I reluctantly believe WA has come as close as they can to the right answer, Caster deserves nothing but sympathy and support. Hubbard does not have any intersex condition, and was indisputably biologically and socially male from birth, until transition in mid 30's. That transition presumably was necessitated by gender dysphoria, but while IOC have allowed transgender people without full surgery (A much smaller cohort) to compete as women since 2015, we have had three very significant studies since 2019 that pretty much conclusively prove that the biological advantage male puberty creates - about 15% speed, 35% power and strength, and nearly 200% strike force (punching) - is barely reduced even by three years full testosterone suppression. Hubbard may well be playing by the rules as they are, and seems to be entirely genuine in their gender identity, and this is not a personal attack, but the 2015 rules are wrong - even the trans woman whose evidence was used to justify the 2015 rule change, Joanna Harper, basically admitted this year that the science shows that male pubertal advantage largely remains (there was a <5% drop over 3 years where one might expect and require a 30% drop). in other words, Hubbard retains the exact male advantage that is supposed to be eliminated by having female events in the first place. I don't know what the answer is. A third category at the Olympic seems unlikely. a specific Trans (and DSD) category at the Paralympics, for example, seems more plausible, and could be done in a gender affirming way without undermining women. But what has happened here is not sustainable. Far from increasing inclusion and acceptance of trans people, it is causing people who never had an issue with trans people in general to be come angry and resentful. It's actually making things worse. If Hubbard squeezes say Sarah Robles, or Emily Campbell out of a medal, it will become absolutely toxic. My 2c.

100 back has a bit of "4 into 3 won't go" feel to it. McKeown, Dawson, Smith, Masse....and there's no better thing in an olympic year than having a 4 into 3 situation. ATM I'd say it's McKeown, Masse, Dawson .. but I think Dawson might have a lot stlll in the tank, and we know what Smith is capable of...

Perhaps, but I'd put money that Murray would crawl over broken glass to play if he's at all fit. Pretty sure Djok is very determined to go too. no-one who saw Djok cry at his elimination by Del Potro in Rio would be in any doubt that the Games still meant something. After all, let us recall Fed walked away from Paris, and Rafa has dumped Wimbledon as well as Tokyo - I don't think this is a Games issue, I think this is an aging giants in an age of Covid issue. Some players, esp historically us male players, have just not 'got it', treating their career in almost business terms... But I know John Mcenroe famously refused to attend the Olympics .. and admitted years later he bitterly regretted it.

This is an absolute howler from USATF, rightly condemned, but Russiagate this isn't - it's the classic US terror of a court case - apparently Houlihan turned up with an order from a low divisional court which didn't understand the way sports admin works internationally. In attempting to bypass and frustrate CAS with a domestic court order, Houlihan is actually committing another offence. But I suspect she's past caring.

There hasn't been a worlds since 2019. GB haven't faced Germany at a Worlds or Europeans since then, and GBR are the reigning European champions which GER skipped, just as GBR skipped in 2020. The only time they've duelled at all recently was at the World Cup, where GBR won. There's an argument Germany is the stronger team, and certainly they may win - but in no sane universe are they a sure thing on paper, it simply isn't true.

I think Rowing will be their second sport this edition - they are VERY strong in boxing, especially considering women's side, stronger perhaps even than usual

I think Sanita has a good chance of a medal, and an outside shout of gold, but the delay of a year's been terrible for her, I fear.

The velodrome's been a bit of a goldmine in recent years because of GBR's habit of 'hiding' between Games. I don't think GB will have as good a velodromes games as in previous ediitons, but for all that they're gonna win 3 or 4 golds, i'm pretty sure - the women's pursuit squad is just too strong, as their probably underreported Euros times showed at the end of 2020. To my mind, that's what you're looing for - events which are 'misleading' in terms of world champs, and events where there's a GBR 'favourite' who shouldn't be (because home jingoisitc support of course skews the odds offered). I'm quietly hopeful they'll offer stupid odds re Charlotte Dujardin, not understanding that with a new horse, she needs a miracle to win and any medal at all would be a super result - to the bookies she's just double Olympic champ back again....

Complete tangent, but I've only worked out today what a complete fast one Russia have pulled with the ROC name, and having the simply designation RUSSIA banned - we're so used to the RUS, I forgot that's English - RUSsia But in Russian - POCCия - so if, as I suspect Russia adopt POC internally...it becomes no punishment at all! Anyway, on with regular programming....

Hard to argue, I think. 12 months ago, I would have had France as hot favourite, USA a lock for silver and maybe four or five contending for bronze. A year is a long time in triathlon. France seem to have taken a step back, and GBR seem to have taken about three steps forward, and I think barring disaster, the gold comes from those two. The Zaferes issue has upended USA, but I still see them strong enough to be favourites, just, for bronze, but it might well end up a dog fight... As for my TWO countries, Triathlon is obvious hugely high profile, relatively speaking, in the UK, thanks to all the women since Helen Jenkins, and the Brownlee Brothers, whose various triumphs and struggles have had a soap opera quality. People don't know much about Yee yet, but they tend to like the cut of his jobm whether in Triathlon or Athletics where he won the Night of 10k PBs british event a few years back. Ireland on the other hand has a lot of amateur triathlon, and the sport is well loved, but we have not yet had a breakthrough star like a Katie Taylor or a Sean Kelly/Stephen Roche who could bring it to the next level.

Already controversial - Shelby Houlihan apparently will be allowed to run pending appeal...despite the fact she's had the appeal and CAS rejected it.

In GB's case, in particular, I think they believe Abbie Wood has a real medal shot at 200IM. Freya Anderson is a hell of a relay swimmer, but she's not currently an individual medal prospect. Still seems a pity not to bring Tamsyn and Holly Hibbott, add in Lucy Hope and Aimee Wilmott and at least let them have a crack.

Reminds me of the Boardman-Obree era in track cycling and the shiny-suit era in swimming, and I think it will end the same way - a harsh backlash. Technology has simply overtaken the federations ability to police it, there may well be an added pharmaceutical issue as drugs testing has fallen off a cliff (expect a LOT of post games doping pings as the in competition testing snags a few who misttime) and after these games, I suspect, WA is going to come under pressure to address the supershoes - Athletics, more than most sports, relies on its legacy, and the capacity to compare across the eras...

Amazing comeback, out-of-nowhere performance from Ugen - from nowhere to World class, medal contender in one jump.... some way to catch the Beast, though....

I know. quite astonishing renaissance in middle distance happening, and at least a couple of them are genuine medal shouts already, though I think Paris may be where the fireworks really start - for now, though, Reekie at 800, Muir and Wightman at 1500 are genuine medal shouts

True, but the winner of the first Samoa v Ireland match likely has all but a bye to the final - the runner up they'd face in the France group would be the weak link in the Semis - France have much easier group, but almost guaranteed tougher knockout - winner of Ireland Samoa group should have relatively straight forward semi, while loser is really no worse off than France, as they'd face a France, Ireland/Samoa route anyway

Great Britain fell at the very final hurdle in both softball and women's basketball - if they had managed to get past Italy and south Korea respectively you could have added another 24 or so...

Presumably, even without sending a team, Joanne Muir is a lock for a rankings spot?

I don't think, given the 2 lifter limit, that it's automatic UKR take the spot, and COL's team ban request has come in, I believe...

It's incredibly tight, but essentially it looks like UKR will drop their 76kg, so if COL are banned, OR China go a different route, Godley becomes the European entry at #9. IF BOTH happen, Godley comes in a Top 8, and FRA get the Euro spot, I think

By my reading, 4 nations can get a second quota, if they already have a first quota in the worlds. However NO NOC can get two quotas from the world series alone, so Portugal cannot pick up two through the series.