Hi Russ
I post with two hats on, and . Politically, and culturally, I'm more , but I retain a strong affinity in sport with , and especially . So...
For it's all about Dan Wiffen, notwithstanding we have a genuinely decent squad these days (must not overlook Mona and Ellen), but Dan is an absolute bolter for us - he's not gold medal favourite, but he's definitely a gold medal chance. For those of us who recall Atlanta, it would be a blessed relief if Dan picked up a medal, especially a gold.
Now, for
A huge amount depends on Peaty. Without Peaty, we have some great chances. With Peaty in anything like his old form, things go mega in 3 further events.
Gold Chances:
50m : Proud. He's due an Olympic medal, but he's capable of gold.
200m : It doesn't really look like Popovici is coming back in his World champs form, and Matt R winning the Euro Short Course was a bit of a statement. The reigning Olympic champ has been very very good over the three years since, but not really quite hit that peak - and he is in a field of Brits that is so stacked it makes other 4 x 200 relay teams wince - indeed, the last thing they need is Jimmy Guy of all people apparently rediscovering his 2015 mojo - indeed, with the rise of Jacob Peters in the 100 fly, Jimmy's eggs may all end up in the 200 free basket. Which ever 2 survive trials will be medal hopes, but Matt R is probably the gold medal hope.
4 x 200m : speaking of which, this has to be GB's biggest chance of a gold. If the top four come in any sort of shape...The Reigning World Champ, who is also the euro SC champ, the reigning Olympic champ, who's also World silver and basically has won a global medal every time he's dived in, the reigning Commonwealth Champ, who beat the Olympic champ, having won silver at the Olympics, and the 2015 World Champ who has won just the six global relay golds
100 breast : All depends on Peaty. He may be done. He may be about to do something spectacular. and the truth is we just don't know.
200 IM. Duncan Scott is a machine, but a silver machine. This time I don't forsee him having as packed a schedule as in recent years - he could very well not make 200 free, and not be needed for all of the 4 x 100 free relay
. He may even get a rest for the 4 x 200 relay heats. If all his stars align, I think he can do the big G in 200IM. Won't mean he will. but he could.
4 x 100 freestyle - not as sure as the 4 x 200 despite strong chance of many of the same personnel, but if Burrus and Whittle come in hot, it's possible - a Proud heat swim is unlikely but not out of the question
4 x 100 medley. All on Peaty, again. GBR have increasing quality options on backstroke and fly, but it all comes down to Peaty - if he's flying, it's on like donkey kong.
4 x 100 mixed medley. Arguably the better medley if Peaty is fit. Big if. Without him, nae chance. TeamGB must remember golden rule of mixed medley - "You'll only get joy if breaststroke's a boy" - using a woman at breaststroke costs an extra 2 1/2 seconds compared to freestyle, and 1 1/2 compared to back or fly - it is insurmountable, imho. Again, feels like a FMMF order, and GB have better options - or at least more options - in 2024 than they did in 2021 on F back and M fly
Medal chances
You have to love bolters; that guy or gal you hardly considered who comes through in the key six months like gangbusters. Sure. it's easier to understand if they come through like Scott, Guy, Dean, Greenbank, Anderson, Richards etc from precocious junior careers, but unpredictability is fun
That aside, I see genuine, though not necessarily huge, chances of medals in
M 100 fr
M 200 bk
M 100 fl
M 400 IM
W 4 x 200 fr R
W 4 x 100 medley R
W 50m fr
W 100 bk
W 200 bk
W 200 IM
W 400 IM
W 200 IM