How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (2021 "A" version)

[Illya 511]

30 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

Ummm, not to burst your bubble, but i'm fairly certain that China is going to choose the 87+.  They are much more prone in the lighter women's weights, unlike the men and have it safer on the heavier ones.

But China may not put an athlete in this category. Only in this case Nastya has a chance

[hckošice 14,807]

Well, as always something between Zero and Six.

 

Fantastic Olympics = 6 medals

Disastrous Olympics = 0 medals

 

Anything between them is realistic.

 

Hopefully we will win some and hopefully also some gold(s) So far we did not win Gold at Summer Olympics since the independence only in London 2012.

 

 

If I had to pick our eventual chances for gold I would pick obviously M Canoe Slalom C1 and Mixed Trap Teams. but you know, how it is. the two most unpredictable sports, where everything can happen and change at any second

 

Obviously Canoe Slalom is and will be again our phare sport, I already see myself looking for another TV channels to watch something else, since our TV will again spend more than 50% of its coverage with only speaking from the canoe slalom studio...

 

[Agger 1,662]

Well. A bit more specific for Denmark. Medal chances per sport (at a moment where I can only consider the shape of very few athletes):

 

Archery: 0-1

Badminton: 1-3
Canoeing - sprint: 2
Cycling - BMX racing: 1
Cycling - Mountain Bike: 1
Cycling - Road: 1-3
Cycling - Track: 5
Equestrian - dressage: 1-2
Golf: 0-4
Handball: 1
Rowing: 1-2
Sailing: 4
Shooting: 1-6
Swimming: 1
Wrestling: 0-1

 

Usually we get a medal per 3-4 chances, however in Rio the rate of succes was quite a bit higher (I think I had 36 medal chances (and missed a couple of the medalists) back then).  

What are your thoughts @Wumo?

[Fran-UDA 125]

Between 20-25 medals, but less Gold than in Rio

[intoronto 5,630]

 

Athletics: 3

Basketball: 1 (women's)

Swimming: 6

Judo: 1 or 2

Canoeing: 1 or 2 depending on getting second quota in women canoeing

Rowing: 2

Diving: 2

Wrestling: 1

Gymnastics: 1-2

Taekwondo: 1

Softball: 1

All other sports: 1-2

 

20 to 24

 

 

[Werloc 3,163]

Well, Lithuania usually wins between 4-5 medals

 

Probable medal chances are:

 

Danas Rapšys 200m/400m Freestyle

Laura Asadauskaitė or Gintarė Venčkauskaitė for Modern Pentathlon

Andrius Gudžius for Discus Throw

Women's double sculls

 

Outside chances:

 

Men's double sculls

Canoeing (if anyone from Lithuania even qualifies)

Simona Krupeckaitė in Keirin or Sprint

 

I'm leaning more towards 4 medals though. 

[gucardn 64]

 

Brazil chances by sport:

 

Atletics: 1 - 3

Boxing: 1 - 3

Canoeing: 1 - 3

Cycling: 1

Equestrian: 1 - 2

Fencing: 1

Football: 2

Gym: 1 - 5 (depending of Rebeca Andrade Qualification)

Judo: 1 - 3

Karate: 1

Sailing: 1 - 3

Skateboarding: 1 - 6

Surfing: 1 - 4

Swimming: 1 - 3

Table Tenis: 1

Taekwondo: 1 - 3

Tenis: 1

Volleyball: 1 - 6

Weightlifting: 1

Wrestling: 1

 

 

I think we will beat our medal record (19) but not de gold records (7)

 

I bet in 20 - 24 medals

 

 

 

[CCB 563]

2 hours ago, Jinzha said:

I really hope we can reach the 25 medal record we set in Sydney 2000, considering the recent success in (track) cycling, sailing and rowing among others. That's probably optimistic, but over 20 medals should be a realistic goal.

 

I'll try a sport-by-sport overview with best and worst case guesses tonight. @CCB and @heywoodu will probably be able to correct me on many sports though.

Actually, I stopped making predictions, because as we see today in rowing, everything always turns out differently than expected. But if I can make a prediction, below my ideas for the sports where  competes:

 

Archery: maybe 1 (men's team)

Artistic gymnastics: 0

Athletics: 1 (Hassan)

Beachvolleyball: 0

Boxing: 1 (Fontijn)

Cycling BMX: 1 (men)

Cycling MTB: 1 (men)

Cycling Road: 2 (women, however I expect Dygert for two golds)

Cycling Track: 4 (based on nothing, because March 2020 was the last Championship - men's sprint 2x, teamsprint, omnium)

Diving: 0

Equestrian: 0

Fencing: 0

Football: 0

Handball: 0

Hockey: 1 (women)

Judo: 2 (-70 women Polling, -90 men Van 't End)

Marathon swimming: 1 (van Rouwendaal)

Rowing: 5 (LW2x, W4x, W4-, M2x, M4x)

Sailing: 3 (470 women, RSX men, 49 er FX women)

Swimming: 1 (200 breast)

Tennis: 0

Waterpolo: 0

 

Around 20-25 medals, 5-6 golds

 

If the Games were in 2020 we would have won gold "for sure" in three rowing events, but today it turned out that other countries have improved a lot! Same for track cycling: we were unbeatable in the sprint disciplines, but maybe this year everything changed.

 

 

 

[dodge 1,024]

I'll predict 3 for Ireland - one gold (O'donovan/McCarthy in lightweight double sculls in rowing)

 

Somewhat realistic chances in rowing, equestrian sport, gymnastics, sailing and boxing. Outside chances in a few other sports.

[Andry84 102]

52 minutes ago, CCB said:

Actually, I stopped making predictions, because as we see today in rowing, everything always turns out differently than expected. But if I can make a prediction, below my ideas for the sports where  competes:

 

Archery: maybe 1 (men's team)

Artistic gymnastics: 0

Athletics: 1 (Hassan)

Beachvolleyball: 0

Boxing: 1 (Fontijn)

Cycling BMX: 1 (men)

Cycling MTB: 1 (men)

Cycling Road: 2 (women, however I expect Dygert for two golds)

Cycling Track: 4 (based on nothing, because March 2020 was the last Championship - men's sprint 2x, teamsprint, omnium)

Diving: 0

Equestrian: 0

Fencing: 0

Football: 0

Handball: 0

Hockey: 1 (women)

Judo: 2 (-70 women Polling, -90 men Van 't End)

Marathon swimming: 1 (van Rouwendaal)

Rowing: 5 (LW2x, W4x, W4-, M2x, M4x)

Sailing: 3 (470 women, RSX men, 49 er FX women)

Swimming: 1 (200 breast)

Tennis: 0

Waterpolo: 0

 

Around 20-25 medals, 5-6 golds

 

If the Games were in 2020 we would have won gold "for sure" in three rowing events, but today it turned out that other countries have improved a lot! Same for track cycling: we were unbeatable in the sprint disciplines, but maybe this year everything changed.

 

 

 

Are you joking, I don't see Netherlands with less than 12 or 13 gold and 40 medals....