CCB

I’m sorry, but I can’t take any of her results seriously when she was one of the 23 Chinese swimmers who tested positive for TMZ…

Can't wait to finish in 4th place in all the women's relays!!! 

Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone will make her 400 hurdles comeback at the LA Grand Prix 18th of May. 
 
Bye bye chances of Olympic gold for Femke Bol 

Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone will make her 400 hurdles comeback at the LA Grand Prix 18th of May. 
 
Bye bye chances of Olympic gold for Femke Bol 

and now it's official! 
 
the IJF has officially registered Kim Polling's switch from  to  
 
now she can represent  with immediate effect
 
Polling's words on the social media (in Italian...google might be helpful):
 
"Ciao a tutti, mi chiamo Kim Polling e posso dirvi che da oggi posso rappresentare l’Italia. Sono super orgogliosa, grata, contenta e non lo so… ancora mille parole in più per darvi questa notizia. Vi parlo un po’ di me, vivo da otto anni in Italia, mi sono sposata un italiano che si chiama Andrea Regis, anche lui è stato un judoka. Abbiamo una figlia, Aurora, che è nata quasi due anni fa e viviamo a San Mauro Torinese. Ho fatto quest’anno la richiesta all’IJF di cambio nazionalità ed oggi è arrivata la notifica che è stato dato l’ok. Sono davvero super orgogliosa, grata e voglio ringraziare l’Italia, ringraziare l’Accademia Torino, la palestra in cui mi alleno da sette anni e non vedo l’ora per il futuro. Vedremo quello che riesco a fare."

medalists according Gracenote:
 
Gold:
 
Women's K4 500m in sprint canoeing, Wojciech Nowicki (athletics - men;s hammer throw), Aleksandra Mirosław (sport climbing - women's speed), Men's team in indoor volleyball
 
Silver:
 
Iga Świątek (tennis - women's singles), Paweł Fajdek (athletics - men's hammer throw - for me it's wishful thinking ), Katarzyna Wasick (swimming - women's 50m freestyle - even more wishful thinking ), Karolina Naja/Anna Puławska (Women's K2 500 in sprint canoeing), men's quadruple sculls in rowing
 
Bronze:

Natalia Kaczmarek (athletics - women's 400m), women's team epée in fencing

Gracenote Medal Predictions for  Canada (partial) 
 
Gold:
Summer McIntosh - Swimming - W 400m Individual Medley Summer McIntosh - Swimming - W 200m Butterfly Marco Arop - Athletics - M 800m Pierce Lepage - Athletics - Decathlon Christa Deguchi - Judo - W 57kg Phil Wizard - Breaking - B-Boys  
Silver:
Katie Vincent - Canoe Sprint - W C-1 200m Canada - Canoe Sprint - W C-2 500m Damian Warner - Athletics - Decathlon Camryn Rogers - Athletics - W Hammer Throw  
Bronze:
Summer McIntosh - Swimming - W 200m Individual Medley Canada - Swimming - W 4x100m Freestyle Relay Canada - Swimming - W 4x100m Medley Relay Maggie Mac Neil - Swimming - W 100m Butterfly Ethan Katzberg - Athletics - M Hammer Throw Sarah Mitton - Athletics - W Shot Put Canada - Athletics - M 4x100m Relay  
Other notes:
No medal for McIntosh in the 400 free No individual medals for De Grasse or Oleksiak No medals in basketball and football

Gold Medalists:
Harrie Lavreysen - Track Cycling Individual Sprint
Harrie Lavreysen - Track Cycling Keirin
Track Cycling Men's Team Sprint (For me Australia is the favorite with their extra rider and better start)
Track Cycling Men's Madison (Havik and Van Schip only won once accidentally during the Worlds, but with  the Dutch are outsider)
Femke Bol - 400m Hurdles (I truly not believe she's capable to beat Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone, how much I wish her to do)
Mathieu van der Poel - Cycling Road Race (Well, he is one of the riders to watch, but so many can win this)
Sharon van Rouwendaal - Marathon Swimming (She won last Worlds because the already qualified swimmers didn't take part seriously in the 10km)
Men's Field Hockey (They have a chance, but for me  and  are bigger favourites)
Women's field Hockey
Tes Schouten - Swimming 200m Breaststroke Did Gracenote ever heard of Tatjana Schoenmaker and Kate Douglass? No.
van de Werken/Lambriex - Sailing 49er
Duetz/van Aanholt - 49er FX
Luuc van Opzeeland - Sailing iQFOiL (Strange format in the final)
Rowing - Men's Double Sculls
Rowing - Women's Four(  is the big boat in this class)
Rowing - Women's Pair(   and  weren't at their best at last year's WCh, but normally those two countries fighting for gold)
Rowing - Men's quadruple Sculls
Rowing - Women's Single Sculls
 
I predict a maximum of 11 golds for us. That still would be an amazing result for our little country. Would be very happy with that.
 
Gracenote predicts only 5 silver, I predict a lot more silver!

Your prediction is much more accurate than Gracenote's, who still thinks Netherlands will win a silver medal at the 4x100 freestyle in swimming  and a total of 18 golds 

Gold Medalists:
Harrie Lavreysen - Track Cycling Individual Sprint
Harrie Lavreysen - Track Cycling Keirin
Track Cycling Men's Team Sprint (For me Australia is the favorite with their extra rider and better start)
Track Cycling Men's Madison (Havik and Van Schip only won once accidentally during the Worlds, but with  the Dutch are outsider)
Femke Bol - 400m Hurdles (I truly not believe she's capable to beat Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone, how much I wish her to do)
Mathieu van der Poel - Cycling Road Race (Well, he is one of the riders to watch, but so many can win this)
Sharon van Rouwendaal - Marathon Swimming (She won last Worlds because the already qualified swimmers didn't take part seriously in the 10km)
Men's Field Hockey (They have a chance, but for me  and  are bigger favourites)
Women's field Hockey
Tes Schouten - Swimming 200m Breaststroke Did Gracenote ever heard of Tatjana Schoenmaker and Kate Douglass? No.
van de Werken/Lambriex - Sailing 49er
Duetz/van Aanholt - 49er FX
Luuc van Opzeeland - Sailing iQFOiL (Strange format in the final)
Rowing - Men's Double Sculls
Rowing - Women's Four(  is the big boat in this class)
Rowing - Women's Pair(   and  weren't at their best at last year's WCh, but normally those two countries fighting for gold)
Rowing - Men's quadruple Sculls
Rowing - Women's Single Sculls
 
I predict a maximum of 11 golds for us. That still would be an amazing result for our little country. Would be very happy with that.
 
Gracenote predicts only 5 silver, I predict a lot more silver!

Gracenote predictions are usually good but they do have some weaknesses.
They underestimate good performances by sportspeople breaking through to top level competition at a young age and, where certain parts of the world have a big advantage over other continents, they rely too much on older global results over newer continental results

Your prediction is much more accurate than Gracenote's, who still thinks Netherlands will win a silver medal at the 4x100 freestyle in swimming  and a total of 18 golds 

Yeah, unfortunately for these types of services, their model puts a lot of weight on the last world championships. For swimming so many people missed the 2024 edition (as expected) that the prediction is skewed. Since Australia depends on swimming for many of its medals, they are going to be severely underestimated in this model.
 
GraceNote would be better off to either combine the times of the last two championships or even disregard 2024 and only use 2023.

Medal Projection 100 days out from Paris:
 
Gold Medalists:
Harrie Lavreysen - Track Cycling Individual Sprint
Harrie Lavreysen - Track Cycling Keirin
Track Cycling Men's Team Sprint
Track Cycling Men's Madison
Femke Bol - 400m Hurdles
Mathieu van der Poel - Cycling Road Race
Sharon van Rouwendaal - Marathon Swimming
Men's Field Hockey
Women's field Hockey
Tes Schouten - Swimming 200m Breaststroke
van de Werken/Lambriex - Sailing 49er
Duetz/van Aanholt - 49er FX
Luuc van Opzeeland - Sailing iQFOiL
Rowing - Men's Double Sculls
Rowing - Women's Four
Rowing - Women's Pair
Rowing - Men's quadruple Sculls
Rowing - Women's Single Sculls
 
 
Silver Medalists:
Sifan Hassan - 10000m
Athletics Women's 4x400m Relay
Swimming - Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay
Rowing - Women's Eight
Rowing - Men's Single Sculls
 
 
Bronze Medalists:
Athletics 4x400m Mixed Relay
Sifan Hassan - 5000m
Niek Kimmann - BMX Racing
Laura Smulders - BMX Racing
Ellen van Dijk - Cycling Individual Time Trial
Demi Vollering - Cycling Road Race
Equestrian Team Show Jumping
Harrie Smolders - Equestrian Individual Show Jumping
Sanne van Dijke - Judo -70Kg
Guuske Steenhuis - Judo -78Kg
Judo Mixed Team
Puck Pieterse - Mountain Bike
Women's Waterpolo
Marrit Steenbergen - Swimming 100m Freestyle
Rowing - Women's Quadruple Sculls

no, I think this is way too optimistic
 
well, this is definitely not out of reach...yeah, everything must go according to plan (and have a bit of luck, too), but it's not impossible
 
if cycling, rowing and athletics specialists all perform to their best, that might push  to the Moon

https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast-100-days/
 
Gracenote releases medal projection 100 days to go!
 
 

Well, my prediction is  and  will fight for the very important second place in the group after France. That normally means a clash with a Scandinavian country in the quarterfinals (most likely  or  ). In that perspective this isn't the best draw for us. But otherwise: there are no weak opponents in the quarters of an Olympic Games.
 
Group A seems a bit stronger with the three Scandinavian powerhouses. Don't know what to say about  . They played a very good OQT, but we destroyed them at the last Worlds. There's a good chance for them to reach the quarterfinals (  and  are weaker). 
 
I really looking forward to the handball tournament in Paris/Lille. Only 100 days wait ...

Not yet. And I didn't hear anything about when the schedule will be released! But normally the IHF is fast with it.

Well, my prediction is  and  will fight for the very important second place in the group after France. That normally means a clash with a Scandinavian country in the quarterfinals (most likely  or  ). In that perspective this isn't the best draw for us. But otherwise: there are no weak opponents in the quarters of an Olympic Games.
 
Group A seems a bit stronger with the three Scandinavian powerhouses. Don't know what to say about  . They played a very good OQT, but we destroyed them at the last Worlds. There's a good chance for them to reach the quarterfinals (  and  are weaker). 
 
I really looking forward to the handball tournament in Paris/Lille. Only 100 days wait ...

Perfect!

The IHF don't know who is the reining world champion 🤣
 
Maybe it's a reason of a wrong seeding 

Approaching 100 days to go, my predictions for
Day 1
20:55: Swimming - Women’s 400m Freestyle Final - Summer McIntosh (Silver)
21:37: Swimming - Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay Final - (Bronze)
 
Day 2
20:45: Swimming - Women’s 100m Butterfly Final - Maggie MacNeil (Silver)
 
Day 3
17:18-17:38: Judo - Women’s 57kg - Christa Deguchi (Gold)
20:30: Swimming - Women’s 400m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh (Gold)
 
Bronze in the women’s 200m freestyle if she chooses to do the double. She’ll have almost an hour and a half between both so it seems doable (but she’s also probably going to be swimming a rigorous schedule so maybe she’ll skip it)
 
Day 4
17:18-17:38: Judo - Men’s 81kg - Francois Gauthier-Drapeau (Bronze)
17:49-18:09: Judo - Women’s 63kg - Catherine Beauchemin Pinard (Silver)
20:57: Swimming - Women’s 100m Backstroke - Kylie Masse (Bronze)
 
Day 5
20:36: Swimming - Men’s 200m Butterfly Final - Illya Kharun (Silver, behind Milak)
 
Day 6
20:30: Swimming - Women’s 200m Butterfly Final - Summer McIntosh (Gold)
 
Day 8
15:30: Artistic Gymnastics - Men’s Floor - Felix Dolci (Bronze)
20:30: Swimming - Men’s 100m Butterfly Final - Josh Liendo (Bronze)
20:59: Swimming - Women’s 200m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh (Gold)
21:45: Athletics - Men’s Decathlon - Pierce LePage (Gold)
 
Day 9
19:35: Swimming - Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay Final (Bronze)
20:30: Athletics - Men’s Hammer Throw Final - Ethan Katzberg (Silver)
 
Day 10
21:00/22:05: 3x3 Basketball - Women’s Tournament Medal Matches (Gold)
 
Day 11
20:00: Athletics - Women’s Hammer Throw Final - Camryn Rogers (Bronze)
 
Day 12
20:30: Athletics - Men’s 200m Final - Andre DeGrasse (Silver)
 
Day 13
15:00: Weightlifting - Women’s 59kg - Maude Charron (Bronze)
19:27: Track Cycling - Men’s Omnium - Dylan Bibic (Silver)
19:40: Athletics - Women’s Shot Put Final - Sarah Mitton (Bronze)
19:45: Athletics - Men’s 4x100m Relay Final - Canada (Bronze)
21:00: Beach Volleyball - Women’s Bronze Medal Match - Melissa Humana-Parades/Brandie Wilkerson (Bronze)
21:07: Taekwondo - Women’s 57kg Bronze Medal Match - Skylar Park (Bronze)
 
Day 14
11:00: Basketball - Men’s Bronze Medal Game - Canada (Bronze)
13:50: Canoe Sprint - Women’s C1-200m - Katie Vincent (Bronze)
19:25: Athletics - Men’s 800m Final - Marco Arop (Gold)
21:23: Breaking - B-Boys - Phil Wizard (Gold)
22:34: Boxing - Women’s 75kg Gold Medal Bout - Tammara Thibeault (Gold)
 
 
Left off some other medal chances, think at least one other name/team that I haven’t mentioned will make the podium. Still very optimistic with this prediction considering our best ever result is 24 medals at Tokyo (I picked 30 events for Canada to win medals in) but we have a talent in McIntosh now. 

I think that: Italy, The Netherlands and Germany will be close to each other on medal table, just like in Tokio 2021. On the other hand, France will get a much better result because of being the host team.

What a nice coincidence! An easy extra honerary title for Summer McIntosh I presume

Good point! Boermans/De Groot is a serious chance that I missed, adding it now. I don't think Stam/Schoon will medal, they are consistently top 8, but I feel like they're just slightly lacking that final edge.