Tokyo 2020 Day after Day as it could have happened

[rafalgorka 1,530]

 

Day 1 Saturday

 

I tried to count all your predictions for day 1 again

I will stick to this system: 

3pts - for 1st place

2pts - for 2nd place

1pt - for 3rd place

 

If there is a tie – more 1^st places, more 2^nd places, more 3^rd places

If there is still a tie – I would try to look for the placing in qualifying competitions (e.g. weightlifting) or rankings (e.g. judo), every event will be discussed individually – the qualifying system in every sports is what matters mostly when I try to choose if more important are wch results or olympic rankings

 

rg - @rafalgorka

fl - @Fly_like_a_don

gi - @Gianlu33

be - @Benolympique

gg - @Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo

he - @heywoodu

of - @OlympicsFan

ra - @Rafoo

wu - @Wumo

 

1. ARCHERY – Mixed Team

KOR   15        3rg 3fl 3gi 3be 3wu

NED   2          2rg

ITA     4          1rg 1gg 2gi

TPE     4          2fl 2 wu

JPN     2          1fl 1be

CHN   4          1gi 2be 1wu

 

THE MEDALISTS:

1. KOREA REPUBLIC         15

2. CHINESE TAIPEI            4 (2x2)

3. ITALY                               4 (1x2, 3^rd in wch 2019 - CHN was 9th)

 

2. CYCLING ROAD – Men Road Race

SLO    Primoz Roglic             10        3rg 3he 1gi 1be 2wu

DEN   Mads Pedersen           2          2rg

ITA     Matteo Trentin            2          1rg 1gg*

FRA    Julian Alaphilippe       10        2he 2gi 3be 3wu

ITA     Vincenzo Nibali          3          1he 1gg* 1wu

BEL    Remco Evenepoel       3          3of

ESP     Alejandro Valverde    5          3gi 2be

 

1. FRA    Julian Alaphilippe      10        (2x2)
2. SLO    Primoz Roglic             10        (1x2)
3. ESP     Alejandro Valverde    5         

 

I personally don't agree with that. I think Roglic will go solo in last 15km or sth and noone will catch him. I can understand that there will be bunch of riders some 20secs behind and Alaphilippe and Valverde have better chances in sprint from a small group than Pedersen - but still I think gold for Roglic.

This is certainly the event of a day. The race course is awesome, I hope the weather will be good, and it can be one of the best bike races in olympic history.

 

3. FENCING – Women Epee Individual

BRA   Nathalie Moellhausen 3          3rg

ROU   Ana Maria Popescu    9          2rg 3gi 2be 2wu

CHN   Lin Sheng                   1          1rg

CHN   Yiwen Sun                  9          3of 3be 3wu

FRA    Coraline Vitalis          3          3of*

ITA     Mara Navarria            3          2gg* 1gi

ITA     Rossella Fiamingo      2          2gg*

HKG   Vivian Kong               2          2gi

RUS    Violetta Kolobova      1          1be

KOR   Injeong Choi               1          1wu

 

1. CHN   Yiwen Sun                  9          (3x3)
2. ROU   Ana Maria Popescu    9          (1x3)
3. BRA   Nathalie Moellhausen 3          (1x3)

 

• FRA    Coraline Vitalis has also 3 (1x3) but in fact @OlympicsFanwrote here that he will just cheer her on, but he predicts Yiwen Sun wins

 

4. FENCING – Men Sabre Individual

KOR   Oh Sang-Uk               10        3rg 6gi 1be 3wu

HUN   Andreas Szatmari       2          2rg

USA   Eli Dershwitz             3          1rg 2wu

ITA     Luca Curatoli              5          1gg* 1gi 3be

ITA     Luigi Samele              3          1gg* 2be

HUN   Aron Szilagyi              3          2gi 1wu

 

1. KOR         Oh Sang-Uk   10
2. ITA           Luca Curatoli  5
3. USA         Eli Dershwitz 3          (2x1, 2 in Olympics rankings according to https://www.facebook.com/FencingTokyo/ and 3^rd in wch 2019)

 

5. JUDO – Women -48kg

UKR   Daria Bilodid                         13        3rg 3of 3gi 1be 3wu

JPN     Funa Tonaki                           9          2rg 2gi 3be 2wu

KOS   Distria Krasniqi                      5          1rg 1gi 2be 1wu

MGL   Monkhbatyn Urantsetseg       1          1rg

ESP     Julia Figueroa                         2          1gi 1wu

KAZ   Otgontsetseg Galbadrakh       1          1be

 

1. UKR         Daria Bilodid 13
2. JPN           Funa Tonaki 9
3. KOS         Distria Krasniqi 5

ESP           Julia Figueroa 2

 

6. JUDO – Men -60kg

GEO   Lukhumi Chkhvimiani           9          3rg 1gi 1be 2wu

JPN     Naohisa Takato                      11        2rg 3gi 3be 3wu

UZB   Sharafuddin Lutfillaev           5          1rg 2gi 1be 1wu

KAZ   Yeldos Smetov                       2          1rg 1gi

RUS    Robert Mshvidobadze            3          2be 1wu

 

1. JPN     Naohisa Takato                      11
2. GEO   Lukhumi Chkhvimiani           9
3. UZB   Shurafuddin Lutfillaev           5

RUS    Robert Mshvidobadze            3

 

7. SHOOTING – Women 10m Air Rifle

KOR   Im Ha-Na                   5          3rg 2gi

IND    Elavenil Valarivan      2          2rg

IND    Anjum Moudgil          2          1rg 1be ???

IND-CHN-TPE                                 fl

IND    Apurvi Chandela        4          2gi 2be – DNSfl

TPE     Ying-Shin Lin            1          1gi

CHN   Ruozhu Zhao              3          3be

 

1. KOR   Im Ha-Na                   5
2. IND    Apurvi Chandela        4
3. CHN   Ruozhu Zhao              3

 

• @Fly_like_a_donwas not sure whether Apurvi Chandela will participate, but I decided to count her, if not there would be silver for China and bronze for India, India could go even better but @Fly_like_a_dondidn’t say which one of India shooters will claim gold in his predictions

 

8. SHOOTING – Men 10m Air Pistol

KOR   Jin Jong-Oh                10        3rg 2fl 3gi 2be

RUS    Artem Chernousov     10        2rg 3fl 2gi 1be 2wu

IND    Abhishek Verma         2          1rg 1wu

IND    Chaudhary Saurabh    1          1fl

CHN   Wei Pang                    7          1gi 3be 3wu

 

1. KOR         Jin Jong-Oh                10        (2x3)
2. RUS          Artem Chernousov     10        (1x3)
3. CHN         Wei Pang                    7

 

9. TAEKWONDO – Women -49kg

THA   Panipak Wongpattanakit        10        3rg 2gi 2be 3wu

KOR   Sim Jae-Young                       5          2rg 1gi 1be 1wu

CHN   Wu Jingyu                              6          1rg 3be 2wu

SRB    Tijana Bogdanovic                 3          1rg 1gi 1be

CRO   Kristina Tomic                       1*        1ra

TUR    Rukiye Yildirim                     4          3gi 1wu

 

1. THA         Panipak Wongpattanakit       10
2. CHN         Wu Jingyu                              6
3. KOR         Sim Jae-Young                      5

TUR          Rukiye Yildirim                     4

 

10. TAEKWONDO – Men -58kg

KOR   Jang Jun                                  12        3rg 3gi 3be 3wu

ITA     Vito Dell’Aquilla                    7          2rg 2gg 1gi 1be 1wu

ESP     Jesus Tortosa                          4          1rg 1gi 1be 1wu

IRI      Armin Hadipour                     7          1rg 2gi 2be 2wu

 

1. KOR         Jang Jun                      12
2. IRI            Armin Hadipour         7          (3x2)
3. ITA           Vito Dell’Aquilla        7          (2x2)

ESP           Jesus Tortosa              4

 

11. WEIGHTLIFTING – Women 49kg

CHN   Huihua Jiang                          6          3rg 3gi- DNSfl

PRK    Ri Song-Gum                         11        2rg 3fl 2gi 2be 2wu

IND    Saikhom Mirabai Chanu        5          1rg 2fl 1gi 1wu

DOM  Beatriz Piron                          1          1fl

CHN   Hou Zhihoui                           6          3be 3wu – DNSfl

JPN     Hiromi Miyake                       1          1be

 

1. PRK          Ri Song-Gum                         11
2. IND          Saikhom Mirabai Chanu        5
3. DOM        Beatriz Piron                          1          (7^th in wch2019, 6^th in 2019 rankings https://www.iwf.net/new_bw/ranking-list/?ranking_year=2019&ranking_agegroup=Senior&ranking_gender=W&ranking_category=49&ranking_lifter=all&x=1&y=8)

 

• I decided not to count China weightlifters in this category, because I think @Fly_like_a_donis right when he says China will not participate in this event, only 4 female weightlifters can participate and they have better chances for easy gold medals in other events

 

 

 day 1 medal table

 

1. KOREA REPUBLIC            5-0-1               6

2. CHINA                                  1-1-2               4

3. JAPAN                                  1-1-0               2

4. KOREA DPR                        1-0-0               1

5. FRANCE                               1-0-0               1

6. THAILAND                          1-0-0               1

7. UKRAINE                            1-0-0               1

8. INDIA                                    0-2-0               2

9. ITALY                                   0-1-2               3

10. RUSSIA                                0-1-1               2

11. CHINESE TAIPEI                0-1-0               1

12. GEORGIA                            0-1-0               1

13. IRAN                                     0-1-0               1

14. ROMANIA                           0-1-0               1

15. SLOVENIA                          0-1-0               1

16. SPAIN                                    0-0-3               3

17. BRAZIL                                0-0-1               1

18. DOMINICAN REP.              0-0-1               1

19. KOSOVO                              0-0-1               1

20. TURKEY                               0-0-1               1

21. UNITED STATES                 0-0-1               1

22. UZBEKISTAN                     0-0-1               1

 

 

This is just first draft, you can still add your predictions, or change the previous ones or make them more specified (some of you just wrote – I think there will be medal for e.g. Croatia).

 

Anyway, it looks like day 1 will be extremely good for Korea – 5 gold medals for KOR and additional 1 gold for PRK. A lot of medals for Asian countries. Japan with 1st gold medal - obviously in judo. And only 1 bronze for USA - this is bad calendar for them in day 1 and then in first few days, but I thought the same in Rio and they started with gold in 10m women's air rifle. But so far China-USA 1-0 golds / 4-1 total.

 

Italy – no gold medal, what can I say?

 

Germany, Netherlands and Poland – no medals at all

 

[dcro 10,210]

I'll eat my shoe if Korea wins 5 golds on Day 1.

[rafalgorka 1,530]

2 minuty temu, dcro napisał:

I'll eat my shoe is Korea wins 5 golds on Day 1.

 

Another interesting thing was that in my own predictions Korea Rep. had 5 golds in day one, but in the end of day 16 they had only 9 golds. So more golds in day 1 than through rest of the games. Strange, but who knows? ;-)

[heywoodu 15,141]

18 minutes ago, dcro said:

I'll eat my shoe is Korea wins 5 golds on Day 1.

 

Quoting it just in case.

[heywoodu 15,141]

1 hour ago, rafalgorka said:

he - @heywoodu

 

I don't get this, what's with 'he'?  

[Gianlu33 4,572]

18 minutes ago, dcro said:

I'll eat my shoe is Korea wins 5 golds on Day 1.

This comment could be useful in 2021

 

[dcro 10,210]

1 minute ago, heywoodu said:

 

Quoting it just in case.

 

1 minute ago, Gianlu33 said:

This comment could be useful in 2021

 

 

Feeling very confident.

 

Winning fencing + BOTH shooting + taekwondo would be like winning a lottery. If not harder.

[heywoodu 15,141]

2 minutes ago, dcro said:

 

 

Feeling very confident.

 

Winning fencing + BOTH shooting + taekwondo would be like winning a lottery. If not harder.

 

Absolutely, since we're gonna get to see you eat your shoe then.

[rafalgorka 1,530]

26 minut temu, heywoodu napisał:

 

I don't get this, what's with 'he'?  

 

This is abbrevation - who gave points for some predictions

e.g.

SLO    Primoz Roglic             10        3rg 3he 1gi 1be 2wu

[Fly_like_a_don 1,090]

19 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

Fly_like_a_donwas not sure whether Apurvi Chandela will participate, but I decided to count her, if not there would be silver for China and bronze for India, India could go even better but @Fly_like_a_dondidn’t say which one of India shooters will claim gold in his predictions

I'll go with Elavenil ofc who's very consistent. WC gold, WC finals gold in 2019 and huge qualifying score average of 630 + and good finals average too. Elavenil, Lin, Ruzhou that order..