Team Ireland - Paris 2024 Qualification Tracker Road to Paris 2024

[dodge 744]

So we've seen all the crews now. Men's four and quads have no chance really. Not much was expected. A B final would be nice for both of them but they're ranked dead last for now

 

Of the possible qualifiers

 

LW men double - won heat. Should be no problem qualifying

Men Double - 2nd behind the USA. In contention for the final, but I expect them to qualify

Men's Pair - 2nd behind Spain. A pleasant surprise. Very hopeful they'll qualify now

 

LW women's double - 2nd behind Romania. Qualification on a knife edge but a very decent start

Women's double - Excellent win ahead of Lithuania. Was worried about this very new combo but should qualify now.

Women's pair - 2nd behind Netherlands. Full expect them to qualify now

Women's four - 3rd behind GBR and Australia but they both expect medals here. A final isn't out of reach, but they're one of 9 crews who think they can get the 7 spots

[Oldira 76]

20 minutes ago, dodge said:

So we've seen all the crews now. Men's four and quads have no chance really. Not much was expected. A B final would be nice for both of them but they're ranked dead last for now

 

Of the possible qualifiers

 

LW men double - won heat. Should be no problem qualifying

Men Double - 2nd behind the USA. In contention for the final, but I expect them to qualify

Men's Pair - 2nd behind Spain. A pleasant surprise. Very hopeful they'll qualify now

 

LW women's double - 2nd behind Romania. Qualification on a knife edge but a very decent start

Women's double - Excellent win ahead of Lithuania. Was worried about this very new combo but should qualify now.

Women's pair - 2nd behind Netherlands. Full expect them to qualify now

Women's four - 3rd behind GBR and Australia but they both expect medals here. A final isn't out of reach, but they're one of 9 crews who think they can get the 7 spots

Agree with all this and I'd just add that if the LW2X AND W4 fail to qualify here I would fully expect them to qualify at the FQR next May. I did hote the Quads might have surprised us buit they were lower than I expected.

[Oldira 76]

On 9/2/2023 at 3:14 PM, Ogreman said:

	M1X	W1X	M2-	W2-	M2X	W2X	LM2X	LW2X	M4-	W4-	M4X	W4X	M8+	W8+
1	GER	NED	GBR<	AUS	NED	ROU	IRL	GBR	GBR	AUS	POL	NED	GBR	ROU<
2	DEN	AUS	ROU>	ROU	CRO<	LTU	FRA	ROU<	AUS	ROU	NED	CHN	NED	GBR
3	NZL	NZL	SWI	NED	ITA	CHN<	SWI	FRA	NZL	GBR	ITA	GBR	AUS	CAN
4	JPN	SWI	ESP	IRL	IRL>	USA	ITA	USA<	NED	USA	GBR	SWI	ROU<	AUS
5	GRE	GER	IRL	GRE	ROU	FRA	CZE	IRL	USA	NED	AUS	UKR	GER	USA
6	BEL	USA	LTU	GBR	ESP	IRL	ESP	GRE>	FRA	IRL	ROU	GER	USA>	CHN
7	CRO	AUT	SRB	USA	BEL	AUS	GRE	NZL	ROU	CHN	EST<	ITA<	CHN	ITA
8	BUL	UZB<	AUS	LTU	CHN	GRE<	BEL	CHN	UKR	DEN	UKR<	USA>	ITA	GER
9	NED>	SRB<	DEN<	CHI	NZL	NED	NZL	ITA	SWI<	NZL	IRL	CAN	CAN
10	LTU	CHN>	USA	DEN	MDA	NOR	UKR	CAN	CHN<	ESP	GER	AUS	AUT
11	CAN	BUL	AIN (B)	ESP	USA	POL	MEX>	POL	GER>	POL	NOR	FRA
12	AIN (R)	ESP	CRO<	CZE>	FRA	GER	NOR	SWI	POL	GER	SWI	ROU
13	SRB	LTU	NZL	CRO	AUS	GBR	POL	AUS	RSA>	CAN	LTU	CZE
14	HUN	ITA<	ITA	GER	NOR<	ITA	CHN	AUT	IRL>	MEX	CHN
15	ITA>	AIN (B)<	RSA	POL	GER	NZL	GER	GER	ITA		USA
16	NOR	CZE	CAN	ITA	GBR	CZE	POR	ESP	DEN		CAN
17	URU<	TUR	NED	NZL	GRE	CAN	AUS	DEN			CZE
18	BRA	ROU	TUR	CAN	CZE	SWI>	USA	TUN
19	ESP	GBR>	POL	AIN (B)	SRB	RSA	TUR>	PER
20	AUS	UKR	FRA	FRA	POL>		AUT	EGY
21	USA	AIN (R)	CHN	CHN	UKR<		EST
22	POR	FRA	GER	PAR	SWE<		URU
23	AIN (B)	JPN	HUN		LTU		UZB>
24	CHN	POL	SLO		BUL		ISR
25	SLO	NOR<	CZE		URU>		EGY
26	TUN	LAT<	EGY		RSA
27	TUR	SLO			CUB
28	MON	PER			EGY
29	ROU	KUW			PER
30	CYP	BRN			BRN
31	ISR	TOG
32	AZE
33	SWE>
34	EGY
35	MEX>
36	ESA<
37	BER
38	FIN
39	PAR
40	ZIM
41	CIV<
42	IRQ
43	GEO
44	BAR
45	ANG
46	BEN
47	SUD
48	LIB

I posted this on the rowing world champs page as well but I said I would post it here if I did it. Anyway, so I did the exercise of trying to rank every boat's form coming into these champs. I did this last year as well and well it wasn't particularly accurate in terms of trying to predict results but hopefully offers some perspective on where our boats might rank and should be useful in assessing how tricky heat draws are and stuff. > means I think a given boat will finish higher than where I have ranked them and < means I think it will actually finish lower than where it is ranked here.          

So how many do you think we will qualify now? I still think the w4s and women’s lightweight are touch and go. The quads surprised me today being just over a second from a semi-final spot. Definitely worth sending them to the FQR. I’m still going for 5 boats qualifying here.

[Ogreman 209]

I have said seven before I'll stick with it even if the women's four is very close at this point. I'm pretty confident in the women's lightweight double even if it will be close. The semi final is against switzerland, Canada, USA, New Zealand and France. Its annoying to get France who ended up in the rep but still it could be worse. It is a bit of a everyone could beat anyone else semi-final apart from Switzerland.

The womens four are up against Canada, Denmark, USA, GB and China. Honestly that is a pretty good draw. We are unlikely to beat USA and GB but Canada, Denmark and China are all beatable. Only makes it more dissapointing if we miss out though. Our heat time was pretty slow but I don't know if we should read into that too much.

The other 5 boats should definetely qualify. Our three quarter finals tomorrow are all fairly straightforward draws and obviously the womens pair and womens double are basically home and dry in terms of Olympic qualification.

The quad looked a lot better today than yesterday. This boat has potential but it is tricky to row and just throwing four athletes albeit good ones together in a boat was unlikely to yield immediate results. I also do wonder if we have the coaches to produce a good quad. Quads are more about technique more so than any other boat and good clean technique hasnt exactly been what our previous succesful boats have been built on. Plus I dont trust Fran keane and the men's heavyweight coaches yet. Finding a good double and pair this year is encouraging but this is two years in a row now where the mens squad has on the whole underperformed compared to its talent level.

I suspect what will happen is that despite one being a sculling boat and the other a sweep boat next year we will probably end up either focusing on the four or the quad next year. Could easily see John Kearney/Jack Dorney moving into the quad or vice versa and trying Brian Colsh out with one oar.

[dodge 744]

5 boats in. The lightweights look great. Between them and Swiss for gold (now and next year)

 

Really happy to see all the others qualify relatively comfortably. Both pairs looked really strong today. They're in medal contention for sure

 

Fingers crossed for the B finals. Lightweights in a fight but have a chance. Fours were strong for 1250 and then tailed off quite badly. Hopefully just keeping energy but hard to see them winning 

[Oldira 76]

2 hours ago, dodge said:

5 boats in. The lightweights look great. Between them and Swiss for gold (now and next year)

 

Really happy to see all the others qualify relatively comfortably. Both pairs looked really strong today. They're in medal contention for sure

 

Fingers crossed for the B finals. Lightweights in a fight but have a chance. Fours were strong for 1250 and then tailed off quite badly. Hopefully just keeping energy but hard to see them winning 

I think the Light Weight women will win the B final. They should have enough to beat Poland and Greece and they were way ahead of France yesterday. Plus they have the best lane.

 

The Fours will have to wait for the FQR. They faded really badly in last 250 yesterday and let Denmark breeze past them. Probably 3rd tomorrow but with Hegarty back next year I think they will get to Paris again.

I did predict 5 boats qualifying but did not expect 5 finalists. We can definitely target 2-3 medals in Paris.

[Ogreman 209]

5 hours ago, Oldira said:

I think the Light Weight women will win the B final. They should have enough to beat Poland and Greece and they were way ahead of France yesterday. Plus they have the best lane.

 

The Fours will have to wait for the FQR. They faded really badly in last 250 yesterday and let Denmark breeze past them. Probably 3rd tomorrow but with Hegarty back next year I think they will get to Paris again.

I did predict 5 boats qualifying but did not expect 5 finalists. We can definitely target 2-3 medals in Paris.

I wouldn't rule out the womens four. You never know if conditions get a bit easier or something. While I would be hopeful of a spot at FOQR if they miss out. I certainly wouldn't be calling it this early.

Also wouldn't rule France out tomorrow in the lightweight double. B finals can get weird. What you have outlined are the most likely outcomes but I just wouldn't be so sure we actually see them.

[Ogreman 209]

That was too close. I have never celebrated another boat catching a crab before but I celebrated that French one.

[dodge 744]

Ha. I think our girls had them anyway. The Polish were the danger. Some nations who think they had medal chances in Paris won’t be there

 

we will 

[Cosmo Kramer 2]

Great bronze medal for Corrigan and Timoney there, inches from silver too. Serious potential in that boat.