Team Ireland - Paris 2024 Qualification Tracker Road to Paris 2024

[dodge 705]

Just to confirm that Emily Hegarty is still injured. Puspure was supposed to be part of the sweep crew earlier in the year but was injured herself

 

Tara Hanlon is the one to miss out with the emergence of Bergin and Magner

[Oldira 76]

On 8/22/2023 at 12:14 AM, Ogreman said:

https://www.rowingireland.ie/2023-world-championships-team-announcement/

Well this is something! Both pairs seem to be priority sweep boats, Sanita is in the four and we're rolling out a quad (Let's go).

(I feel like rambling for a bit)

 

So this is likely going to be our biggest single qualifying event in terms of number of athletes qualified so well, racing five boats that have never raced together before is certainly an interesting decision. Obviously this is also subject to Maurogiovanni's squad cut the week before an event although the only event this didn't happen before was last years worlds (Then again they never actually select Jake McCarthy so his selection is a concern and John Kearney, Adam Murphy and Jack Dorney from the four are all on the entry list for European under23s this weekend( although you'd think a decision would have been made already on that given it is well this weekend)).

 

Lightweight doubles are both as expected but with the note that given the womens double's dissapointing form so far this year it is encouraging that Siobhan McCrohan couldnt force her way into this double.

The mens sweep squad and the mens double are also as expected although lets a wait and see if the four actually races and how competitive it can be assuming it does.

I got my wish for a quad (Colsh,Sheehan, Byrne, Pazzaia). Its good to see the under 23 success being rewarded here and is this finally the return of Ronan Byrne. Obviously zero precedent for Ireland in this boat class although Colsh and Sheehan (and Adam Murphy) won a junior European medal in this boat a few years ago. This quad has the potential to be really fast but quads are tricky and are probably the boat that the overall quality of the boat is least correlated to the quality of the individual rowers. It has to be at worst quite fast though cause it has been considered a better option than racing Colsh or Sheehan in a single.

 

The women's heavyweight results this year have been dissapointing but I did not expect the squad to look this differentfor worlds. The pair has seemingly become the priority boat with Fiona Murtagh and Aifric Keogh combining in a new combination. The pair is an easier boat than the four so maybe this move does increase our chances of a medal but there is significant risk here. The four is an entirely new combination of Eimear Lambe, Sanita Puspure, Imogen Magner and Natalie Long. While the unknown element of this new boat makes it exciting this boat has very little margin for error with only a very competitive top 7 qualifying for the Olympics. (In practice this means making the A final because B finals always produce weird results) This could be a masterstroke of a selection decision but even if we didnt look like medalling we did seem pretty secure to qualify the pair and the four had we just maintained the status quo and it is very possible this move backfires and ends up costing us a spot at the Olympics in the four. Like this is a move we could have made next year having already qualified both boats. The athletes that missed out on selection were somewhat surprisingly Tara Hanlon and presumably still injured Emily Hegarty. 

 

The final new boat is the logical combination of a double if Sanita is in the four of Alison Bergin and Zoe Hyde. Both these athletes are the only young female rowers we have produced this Olympic cycle and have had an impressive last couple of years. With 11 boats to qualify even if they struggle a bit they should at worst secure Olympic qualification. Then again we are reigning bronze medallists in this boat class and behind the Romanians and the Lithuanians that medal is very much still up for grabs although that might be a bit lofty of a goal for this boat.

 

Because we selected Alison Bergin in the double and a quad in the mens, it means no single sculls are selected although singles do make good backup plans if things go a bit wrong here. (This is pure speculation but I do think there is now a world where we end up seeing Sanita give the single sculls one last crack at what surely will be her last Olympics)

 

The pr2 mixed double needs to make an A final to qualify for the paralympics. Tricky but very doable given their improvements this year.

 

I've spent most of the year thinking seven boats qualified at worlds should be the target and while this selection throws things up in the air a bit in terms of trying to predict things I do still think that is a fair expectation although it requires the lighweight double to at least look decent and one of the two fours or the quad to qualify. Medals are a bit tougher to predict but the quality of the squad would indicate 3 medals is a fair expectation even if the formbook doesn't suggest we are anywhere near that.

 

Finally Im glad im Irish cause imagine trying to understand our bonkers selection if you were from somewhere else. If the Dutch or the Romanians or whatever selected this erratically their would be no point even trying to predict medallists or project qualifiers or analyse rowing in an way.

 

When I first saw the team my first reaction was that this seemed a real scattergun approach. Dismantling the womens 4 is a big call as is entering a senior quad which I did not see coming. I am a tad worried abot how well we will do next week and I could see us just qualifying 4 crews or even less. Maybe that would be a good result as we only qualified 4 boats in 2019. The way I see it going in order of chances is

 

1/ Lightweight mens doubles: Have to be certs for qualifying and a podiulm place.    

2/ Mens Double : Should qualify and should probably make the final as well.

3/ Womens Double: Bronze in last years WC so should be able to make top 11 and qualify.

4/ Womens Pair: A new crew taken from the Olympic medal boat. Should make the top 11 but not certainities.

5/ Womens Lightweight Double: Not going particularly well this season and with only Top 7 qualifying are at best 50/50

6/ Womens Four: This boat seems all over the place this year. Personally dont see them qualify next week but maybe at FQR

7/ Mens Pair: A new crew but really cannot see a qualifying spot here.

8/ Mens Quad: A Hail Mary punt or something that has been planned for a while? Haven't a notion!

9/ Mens Four. Will they even get to Belgrade?

 

So on a good week we qualify 5 boats and on a bad week just 3. Then again I am no xpert and I am sure the coaches have had their plan in place since start of year. 

[Ogreman 205]

3 hours ago, Oldira said:

 

When I first saw the team my first reaction was that this seemed a real scattergun approach. Dismantling the womens 4 is a big call as is entering a senior quad which I did not see coming. I am a tad worried abot how well we will do next week and I could see us just qualifying 4 crews or even less. Maybe that would be a good result as we only qualified 4 boats in 2019. The way I see it going in order of chances is

 

1/ Lightweight mens doubles: Have to be certs for qualifying and a podiulm place.    

2/ Mens Double : Should qualify and should probably make the final as well.

3/ Womens Double: Bronze in last years WC so should be able to make top 11 and qualify.

4/ Womens Pair: A new crew taken from the Olympic medal boat. Should make the top 11 but not certainities.

5/ Womens Lightweight Double: Not going particularly well this season and with only Top 7 qualifying are at best 50/50

6/ Womens Four: This boat seems all over the place this year. Personally dont see them qualify next week but maybe at FQR

7/ Mens Pair: A new crew but really cannot see a qualifying spot here.

8/ Mens Quad: A Hail Mary punt or something that has been planned for a while? Haven't a notion!

9/ Mens Four. Will they even get to Belgrade?

 

So on a good week we qualify 5 boats and on a bad week just 3. Then again I am no xpert and I am sure the coaches have had their plan in place since start of year. 

I'm not saying you are definetely wrong but as someone who tries to track where every boat in the world ranks relative to eachother I do think this i overly pessimistic.

One of the important things to remember is that the field at world cup iii was ridiculously good, with only Italy and the USA being the only notable nations to miss it. So for example while on its own a sixth placed finish for the mens pair at any world cup may well indicate that boat isn't good enough to qualify for the Olympics in this case it probably ranks them sixth/seventh in the world.

I did literally rank every boat last year with somewhat limited accuracy but if I have time to do it again this week i'll post it here.

Anyway hopefully without going on any tangents this is how I would rank our boats qualification chances.

 

 

1. Mens Lightweight double- Should win

 

2. Women's pair- We have tried so many women's pairs over the past couple of years and on paper this is by far the best of them. We have had a pretty much unbroken five year period where no matter the combination we finish in the 6-11 range. This boat should break that and in a positive sense. This is absolutely nailed on to qualify. Whether it can medal is the question.

 

3. Men's double- Men's Double is an inherently risky boat but this has been at worst the fourth fastest boat in the world behind the Dutch, Croatians and Italians. The risk here is like we saw last year where we got a tough quarter final finished fourth in a four way sprint and missed the semis but otherwise this is a very safe bet to qualify.

 

4.Men's pair- As i said earlier despite finishing sixth at world cup iii I think that still puts them sixth/seventh in the world this year. This boat should be aiming for the A final and look you never know especially with a young crew but I am very comfortable picking this boat to finish in the top 11.

 

5. Women's double- Look its a new combination but the womens double isn't an especially strong boat class and I don't think it is deep enough to be worrying about not qualifying here. Whether this boat is a medal contender or a mid b final boat is unclear at this point but it should absolutely qualify.

 

6. Women's lightweight double- Why is everyone so pessimistic about this boat? It was third in the world last year and while it has regressed a bit it hasn't regressed that much. Look I'm nervous about this boat too but even with their terrible performances and swapping positions at world cup iii they still rank in the top 6 in the world (Americans changed their combination and who knows whether Greece can actually perform when it matters so we might even be higher). It will be a nervous semi final ( I know top 7 qualify but winning a b final can be a bit of a lottery) and the gap back to the 8th/9th best boats in the world isn't a big one but this is much better than 50/50 more like 80/20. Significant risk but likely qualifiers.

 

7. Women's four- The last time we failed to make a global final in the womens four was 2019. This boat has struggled a lot in A finals going back to last year's World champs but has looked very good in heats/ semi finals. Look this is a new combination and its possible Sanita is regressing and that Natalie Long and Imogen Magner are just good rather than great. I'm not sure about this one. We obviously are putting out a weaker less powerful boat than last year/ earlier this year but because of how incosistent those boats have been I'm not sure this new four will actually end up with a worse result. The previous four was ultimately performing like the sixth/seventh best boat in the world in finals but they were much more talented that that. This boat might make an A final and we will wonder why we ever doubted it or might finish at the back of a b final. I dont know but i'd put us the 6-8 range provisionally. The guage here is Denmark (and maybe New Zealand too), if we are better/faster than them in the heats we probably will qualify, if we're slower we almost certainly won't and if we're level with them well then this is going to be very close. I would lean on the confident side of this projection just because the limited interviews we have had coming from the likes of Maurogiovanni seem to indicate qualifying the most boats is the priority here more so than medals so its unlikely we would have just sacrificed the four in order for the pair to have a chance to medal.

 

8. Men's quad- Look the easiest comparison for this boat is the men's four last year which lost a photo finish for seventh. This boat is in a very similar spot and may well end up in a similar situation casing that seventh and final qualifying spot although the final is definitely not beyond them. It's unproven at senior level and the one athlete that is Ronan Byrne has had a rough couple of years. Talent wise there is a potential Olmypic medal winning boat here but whether it qualifies here or not is a very different question. Probably just misses out but is a good backup plan if one of the women's lightweight double or womens four.

 

9. Men's four- We have survived todaywithout any news, are now in world champs week and the examiner had a piece on Jack Dorney a couple of days ago so looks like we probably are getting to see the four actually race. Three of these athletes have been under 23 world medallists in the past 3 years so this boat should still be good even if our best two sweep rowers are together in the pair. Obviously the fact that this boat failed to race at world cup iii is discouraging but I would still expect a b final finish here and while top 7 looks very unlikely, these champs will hopefully leave us confident of its chances at FOQR next year given the age profile of this boat.

 

 

 

I'm sticking with seven boats qualified as the baseline for success here maybe 6.5 if i'm generous.

My concern is much less with qualifying boats but with medals though. On paper this is the most talented squad we have ever had and yet we are only really on track for one medal. I'd expect one of the numerous boats I expect to make an A final to sneak a medal (or maybe Siobhan McCrohan in the lightweight single) probably the mens double although relying on anything in that boat class is risky. Our medal tallys for the last four global champs have gone 2018-2(2 gold) 2019-3 (2 gold), 2021-2 (1 gold) and 2022- 3 (1 gold) so given the bigger and in theory improved squad we really should be pushing for 4 or so medals rather than hoping for 2 but sure look.

 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Ogreman

[Oldira 76]

20 hours ago, Ogreman said:

I'm not saying you are definetely wrong but as someone who tries to track where every boat in the world ranks relative to eachother I do think this i overly pessimistic.

One of the important things to remember is that the field at world cup iii was ridiculously good, with only Italy and the USA being the only notable nations to miss it. So for example while on its own a sixth placed finish for the mens pair at any world cup may well indicate that boat isn't good enough to qualify for the Olympics in this case it probably ranks them sixth/seventh in the world.

I did literally rank every boat last year with somewhat limited accuracy but if I have time to do it again this week i'll post it here.

Anyway hopefully without going on any tangents this is how I would rank our boats qualification chances.

 

 

1. Mens Lightweight double- Should win

 

2. Women's pair- We have tried so many women's pairs over the past couple of years and on paper this is by far the best of them. We have had a pretty much unbroken five year period where no matter the combination we finish in the 6-11 range. This boat should break that and in a positive sense. This is absolutely nailed on to qualify. Whether it can medal is the question.

 

3. Men's double- Men's Double is an inherently risky boat but this has been at worst the fourth fastest boat in the world behind the Dutch, Croatians and Italians. The risk here is like we saw last year where we got a tough quarter final finished fourth in a four way sprint and missed the semis but otherwise this is a very safe bet to qualify.

 

4.Men's pair- As i said earlier despite finishing sixth at world cup iii I think that still puts them sixth/seventh in the world this year. This boat should be aiming for the A final and look you never know especially with a young crew but I am very comfortable picking this boat to finish in the top 11.

 

5. Women's double- Look its a new combination but the womens double isn't an especially strong boat class and I don't think it is deep enough to be worrying about not qualifying here. Whether this boat is a medal contender or a mid b final boat is unclear at this point but it should absolutely qualify.

 

6. Women's lightweight double- Why is everyone so pessimistic about this boat? It was third in the world last year and while it has regressed a bit it hasn't regressed that much. Look I'm nervous about this boat too but even with their terrible performances and swapping positions at world cup iii they still rank in the top 6 in the world (Americans changed their combination and who knows whether Greece can actually perform when it matters so we might even be higher). It will be a nervous semi final ( I know top 7 qualify but winning a b final can be a bit of a lottery) and the gap back to the 8th/9th best boats in the world isn't a big one but this is much better than 50/50 more like 80/20. Significant risk but likely qualifiers.

 

7. Women's four- The last time we failed to make a global final in the womens four was 2019. This boat has struggled a lot in A finals going back to last year's World champs but has looked very good in heats/ semi finals. Look this is a new combination and its possible Sanita is regressing and that Natalie Long and Imogen Magner are just good rather than great. I'm not sure about this one. We obviously are putting out a weaker less powerful boat than last year/ earlier this year but because of how incosistent those boats have been I'm not sure this new four will actually end up with a worse result. The previous four was ultimately performing like the sixth/seventh best boat in the world in finals but they were much more talented that that. This boat might make an A final and we will wonder why we ever doubted it or might finish at the back of a b final. I dont know but i'd put us the 6-8 range provisionally. The guage here is Denmark (and maybe New Zealand too), if we are better/faster than them in the heats we probably will qualify, if we're slower we almost certainly won't and if we're level with them well then this is going to be very close. I would lean on the confident side of this projection just because the limited interviews we have had coming from the likes of Maurogiovanni seem to indicate qualifying the most boats is the priority here more so than medals so its unlikely we would have just sacrificed the four in order for the pair to have a chance to medal.

 

8. Men's quad- Look the easiest comparison for this boat is the men's four last year which lost a photo finish for seventh. This boat is in a very similar spot and may well end up in a similar situation casing that seventh and final qualifying spot although the final is definitely not beyond them. It's unproven at senior level and the one athlete that is Ronan Byrne has had a rough couple of years. Talent wise there is a potential Olmypic medal winning boat here but whether it qualifies here or not is a very different question. Probably just misses out but is a good backup plan if one of the women's lightweight double or womens four.

 

9. Men's four- We have survived todaywithout any news, are now in world champs week and the examiner had a piece on Jack Dorney a couple of days ago so looks like we probably are getting to see the four actually race. Three of these athletes have been under 23 world medallists in the past 3 years so this boat should still be good even if our best two sweep rowers are together in the pair. Obviously the fact that this boat failed to race at world cup iii is discouraging but I would still expect a b final finish here and while top 7 looks very unlikely, these champs will hopefully leave us confident of its chances at FOQR next year given the age profile of this boat.

 

 

 

I'm sticking with seven boats qualified as the baseline for success here maybe 6.5 if i'm generous.

My concern is much less with qualifying boats but with medals though. On paper this is the most talented squad we have ever had and yet we are only really on track for one medal. I'd expect one of the numerous boats I expect to make an A final to sneak a medal (or maybe Siobhan McCrohan in the lightweight single) probably the mens double although relying on anything in that boat class is risky. Our medal tallys for the last four global champs have gone 2018-2(2 gold) 2019-3 (2 gold), 2021-2 (1 gold) and 2022- 3 (1 gold) so given the bigger and in theory improved squad we really should be pushing for 4 or so medals rather than hoping for 2 but sure look.

 

 

 

I'd totally forgotten anout how well the Mens Pair did at WC3 so I'd tend to agree that we should manage to qualify at least 5 boats. 6 would be great and 7 in total Incl. the FQR) would be excellent. I think two medals here (and at Olympics) would still be good work.

 

 

[dodge 705]

Men’s four among the teams listed on rowing Ireland’s social media. This is usually the first sign of any chances so looks like they’re all ready to go

 

 

[Ogreman 205]

Its a really strange phenomenon that we have these really strict standards to get selected for Europeans or a world cup and then we just seem to select basically everyone for worlds. I mean I guess the optimistic explanation is that athletes tend to hit form at the right time and therefore are hitting times/numbers now that they wouldn't have hit early in the season although you would think that would be taken into account when selecting crews earlier in the season. Maurogiovanni has said his standards are A finals at a world cup/ Europeans or top ten at worlds/ Olympics (Imagine if he pulls the withdraw a crew from the Olympics move. Don't think it would happen but I mean half of our crews at the last Olympics technically finished outside the top ten.). Anyway these two standards arent actually equivalent in most boat classes with very few boat classes having 4 of the top 10 boats be non European. It also fails to take into account the wildly different standards depending on which world cup you attend and the discrepancy between the standards and depth from one boat class to another (Top ten in a single is much harder than in an eight is the easiest example. A more complex one would be the fact that the womens four is currrently disproportionally the priority sweep boat in a lot of the big nations.). Again though I would kind of assume the actual standards for selection would take these sort of things into account.

 

Anyway the most likely actual explanation is that it is just a funding thing both in terms of rowing Ireland's funding is in part tied to the size of the squad they take to worlds and that Sport Ireland's performance standards will value top 15/20s in the world in a way that Rowing Ireland may not. Also selecting athletes for worlds ensures they get carded and receive more financial support than they otherwise would so you would rapidly run out of depth in your squad if you selected small squads for worlds. 

 

This is all to say are we not just kind of hurting ourselves by adopting strict standards for Europeans and world cups. I understand it fosters competition that may ultimately push some boats on but it also likely leads to lower retention rates from athletes from season to season and surely some of the younger boats could benefit from competing more often. I get the logic behind it and honestly plenty of other sports could do with demanding higher standards and a bit of ambition.

I do have concerns though that as a long term strategy for a country of our size and with the current rate at which we seem to produce world class rowers that if at some point in the future we stagnate a bit and the squad shrinks with a bunch of retirements we might not have the depth to replenish it and our current period of success could end being a kind of golden generation esque blip. Obviously this is probably an overly pessimistic apocalyptic way of viewing things but for example probably around half of the womens squad is likely to retire post Paris Olympics and we could very easily be left in a spot where we may only have two or so women's boats competing in 2025/2026. Then again obviously the hope is that rowing's growth continues and we start to produce more and more world class rowers over the next few years and tough selection standards actually drive us on to stay near the top of medal tables.

 

 

[Oldira 76]

18 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Its a really strange phenomenon that we have these really strict standards to get selected for Europeans or a world cup and then we just seem to select basically everyone for worlds. I mean I guess the optimistic explanation is that athletes tend to hit form at the right time and therefore are hitting times/numbers now that they wouldn't have hit early in the season although you would think that would be taken into account when selecting crews earlier in the season. Maurogiovanni has said his standards are A finals at a world cup/ Europeans or top ten at worlds/ Olympics (Imagine if he pulls the withdraw a crew from the Olympics move. Don't think it would happen but I mean half of our crews at the last Olympics technically finished outside the top ten.). Anyway these two standards arent actually equivalent in most boat classes with very few boat classes having 4 of the top 10 boats be non European. It also fails to take into account the wildly different standards depending on which world cup you attend and the discrepancy between the standards and depth from one boat class to another (Top ten in a single is much harder than in an eight is the easiest example. A more complex one would be the fact that the womens four is currrently disproportionally the priority sweep boat in a lot of the big nations.). Again though I would kind of assume the actual standards for selection would take these sort of things into account.

 

Anyway the most likely actual explanation is that it is just a funding thing both in terms of rowing Ireland's funding is in part tied to the size of the squad they take to worlds and that Sport Ireland's performance standards will value top 15/20s in the world in a way that Rowing Ireland may not. Also selecting athletes for worlds ensures they get carded and receive more financial support than they otherwise would so you would rapidly run out of depth in your squad if you selected small squads for worlds. 

 

This is all to say are we not just kind of hurting ourselves by adopting strict standards for Europeans and world cups. I understand it fosters competition that may ultimately push some boats on but it also likely leads to lower retention rates from athletes from season to season and surely some of the younger boats could benefit from competing more often. I get the logic behind it and honestly plenty of other sports could do with demanding higher standards and a bit of ambition.

I do have concerns though that as a long term strategy for a country of our size and with the current rate at which we seem to produce world class rowers that if at some point in the future we stagnate a bit and the squad shrinks with a bunch of retirements we might not have the depth to replenish it and our current period of success could end being a kind of golden generation esque blip. Obviously this is probably an overly pessimistic apocalyptic way of viewing things but for example probably around half of the womens squad is likely to retire post Paris Olympics and we could very easily be left in a spot where we may only have two or so women's boats competing in 2025/2026. Then again obviously the hope is that rowing's growth continues and we start to produce more and more world class rowers over the next few years and tough selection standards actually drive us on to stay near the top of medal tables.

 

 

In 2019 Maurogiovani sent 6 boats to the WC and 4 of them qualified for the Olympics winning 3 medals. The other two crews both then qualified at the FQR. The womens lightweight improved from 17 to 3rd between the Worlds and the FQR. Anything similar next week and we'll be lighting bonfires!

I thought we sent a decent number of boats to the Euros and World Cup 3 and most countries did not put a big effort into the First two                           World Cups. The withdrawal of the Mens 4 at WC 3 still seems strange and I suppose the chopping and changing the womens sweep is partly base on the fact the fours seem the target of other countries to the detriment of the Eights. Maybe we should be trying the Eights??? I'm hoping the Quads could be our woment 4 from 2019...midtable in B Final and qualify at FQR. 

I am a bit less concerned about the woments lightweights as even with their relatively poor form they still seem to be at worst 5/6th in the World based on their 2023 races. If they have a good regatta they might get a podium place.

[dodge 705]

We still have a relatively small group of rowers so an injury to one/two and we have to think about pulling out teams. Particularly in the heavyweight men where we’ve struggled traditionally. Some of the focus for them this year was on the world u23 rather than the World Cup too it seems 

 

Management deserve the benefit of any doubt with selections etc as they’ve proven they can build medal winning crews 

[Ogreman 205]

On 8/31/2023 at 6:18 PM, dodge said:

We still have a relatively small group of rowers so an injury to one/two and we have to think about pulling out teams. Particularly in the heavyweight men where we’ve struggled traditionally. Some of the focus for them this year was on the world u23 rather than the World Cup too it seems 

 

Management deserve the benefit of any doubt with selections etc as they’ve proven they can build medal winning crews 

They absolutey do deserve the benefit of the doubt. They have done the best job basically anyone has ever done in Ireland in terms of growing a sport even if part of that was inheriting a squad with talents like Paul O'Donovan and Sanita. Its not really a short term concern but management will very possibly change for the next Olympic cycle because I kind of doubt Maurogiovanni will stick around and honestly if these worlds and Olympics go well Id be pretty surprised if he and the likes of Giuseppe de Vita dont get bigger money offers elsewhere given the number of traditional powerhouses struggling right now. Long term I trust Maurogiovanni's decisions even if occasionally they appear quite illogical I just dont know that I would trust someone else to try and run the same system.

Its not really relevant for next week but I do think it is important to note that while our current squad  is amongst the best in the world we dont yet have the structures or the infrastructure to maintain that long term. 

Edited September 2, 2023 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 205]

	M1X	W1X	M2-	W2-	M2X	W2X	LM2X	LW2X	M4-	W4-	M4X	W4X	M8+	W8+
1	GER	NED	GBR<	AUS	NED	ROU	IRL	GBR	GBR	AUS	POL	NED	GBR	ROU<
2	DEN	AUS	ROU>	ROU	CRO<	LTU	FRA	ROU<	AUS	ROU	NED	CHN	NED	GBR
3	NZL	NZL	SWI	NED	ITA	CHN<	SWI	FRA	NZL	GBR	ITA	GBR	AUS	CAN
4	JPN	SWI	ESP	IRL	IRL>	USA	ITA	USA<	NED	USA	GBR	SWI	ROU<	AUS
5	GRE	GER	IRL	GRE	ROU	FRA	CZE	IRL	USA	NED	AUS	UKR	GER	USA
6	BEL	USA	LTU	GBR	ESP	IRL	ESP	GRE>	FRA	IRL	ROU	GER	USA>	CHN
7	CRO	AUT	SRB	USA	BEL	AUS	GRE	NZL	ROU	CHN	EST<	ITA<	CHN	ITA
8	BUL	UZB<	AUS	LTU	CHN	GRE<	BEL	CHN	UKR	DEN	UKR<	USA>	ITA	GER
9	NED>	SRB<	DEN<	CHI	NZL	NED	NZL	ITA	SWI<	NZL	IRL	CAN	CAN
10	LTU	CHN>	USA	DEN	MDA	NOR	UKR	CAN	CHN<	ESP	GER	AUS	AUT
11	CAN	BUL	AIN (B)	ESP	USA	POL	MEX>	POL	GER>	POL	NOR	FRA
12	AIN (R)	ESP	CRO<	CZE>	FRA	GER	NOR	SWI	POL	GER	SWI	ROU
13	SRB	LTU	NZL	CRO	AUS	GBR	POL	AUS	RSA>	CAN	LTU	CZE
14	HUN	ITA<	ITA	GER	NOR<	ITA	CHN	AUT	IRL>	MEX	CHN
15	ITA>	AIN (B)<	RSA	POL	GER	NZL	GER	GER	ITA		USA
16	NOR	CZE	CAN	ITA	GBR	CZE	POR	ESP	DEN		CAN
17	URU<	TUR	NED	NZL	GRE	CAN	AUS	DEN			CZE
18	BRA	ROU	TUR	CAN	CZE	SWI>	USA	TUN
19	ESP	GBR>	POL	AIN (B)	SRB	RSA	TUR>	PER
20	AUS	UKR	FRA	FRA	POL>		AUT	EGY
21	USA	AIN (R)	CHN	CHN	UKR<		EST
22	POR	FRA	GER	PAR	SWE<		URU
23	AIN (B)	JPN	HUN		LTU		UZB>
24	CHN	POL	SLO		BUL		ISR
25	SLO	NOR<	CZE		URU>		EGY
26	TUN	LAT<	EGY		RSA
27	TUR	SLO			CUB
28	MON	PER			EGY
29	ROU	KUW			PER
30	CYP	BRN			BRN
31	ISR	TOG
32	AZE
33	SWE>
34	EGY
35	MEX>
36	ESA<
37	BER
38	FIN
39	PAR
40	ZIM
41	CIV<
42	IRQ
43	GEO
44	BAR
45	ANG
46	BEN
47	SUD
48	LIB

I posted this on the rowing world champs page as well but I said I would post it here if I did it. Anyway, so I did the exercise of trying to rank every boat's form coming into these champs. I did this last year as well and well it wasn't particularly accurate in terms of trying to predict results but hopefully offers some perspective on where our boats might rank and should be useful in assessing how tricky heat draws are and stuff. > means I think a given boat will finish higher than where I have ranked them and < means I think it will actually finish lower than where it is ranked here.