Gracenote medal predictions for Ireland Gold McCarthy/O’Donovan McClenaghan Silver Kelly Harrington Cian O’Connor Wiffen 800m Bronze Rory McIlroy Wiffen 1500m

So far today in the rowing finals; Keogh/Murtagh silver behind the Dutch. They looked OK so probably still in the top 4/5 but without Australia and Romania we won’t know if they’re likely to contend for a medal yet Doyle/Lynch went off very slow but had an insane finish to grab bronze. They’ll need to be more consistent to challenge in Paris The women’s four were miles off two GB boats and finished in 4th as the Dutch eased away. Still a good regatta for them though and I’m more confident they’ll qualify now Timoney/Corrigan win the B final and let’s hope the illness/injury is behind them

Squad announcement for world athletics relays Our big names all there on the women’s sides including Adeleke, Mawdsley, Healy and Becker. Interestingly Becker only listed as reserve for the mixed. The men include Tom Barr, Cillin Greene and Jack Raftery. Stalwart of the mixed team Chris O’Donnell is only listed as a travelling reserve No Men’s team so we have 4 men and 7 women travelling.

Konan Pazzaia looked great in the M1x 4th fastest time overall and half a length down on the world silver medallist. If he can replicate that form through the regatta he will get picked over Colsh for FOQR and would be in contention to qualify. I probably wouldn't read that much into a heat result though and he does need to produce that form 3 more times this weekend. Brian Colsh didn't look very good at all despite being IRL1, maybe despite his physique the single just doesn't suit him, 3rd in his heat left him a little at the mercy of quarter finals draw but he seems to have gotten away with it although will need a better row this afternoon than he produced this morning just to make the semis. The Men's four did not look good at all and Germany, Switzerland, and Italy none of whom have qualified for the Olympics all looked great and were beating the Dutch and the Brits (First time the Brits have lost all Olympic cycle I think.). The one saving grace for the four is A. look new combination, Ronan Byrne new to sweep and B. terrible start and didn't lose that much time down the middle of the course but ye need to be beating Denmark and Ukraine tomorrow if they want any hope of qualifying for the Olympics. I know they are young and all but surely this four should be producing better results than it is. Lets see how they go tomorrow. The men's pair apparently had quite a disrupted preparation with illness and injury so being off the pace of the British/ Swiss is not a disaster but they have a bit of work still to do just to make the final here, they should though. Wouldn't be at all worried about the double being well beaten by Italy, that was true early last year as well. Yeah women's boats all looked great. Maybe Sanita ending her career with an Olympic medal is still on the cards (probably a bit premature but). Only other thing I would mention is Canada opted to not field a women's four at FOQR and Germany who were 11th last year seem to be going for the eight so like its basically gauranteed to be us and Denmark that qualify. Poland is now the biggest threat but they are not a big one and if we can stay ahead of Denmark that won't even matter. But ye I would be thinking about the four in terms of can it get to being competitive in an Olympic final and not worrying much at all whether it will qualify.

Good start for new women's four in Varese. Sanita won her heat too. Men's side didn't look as strong but they don't have to peak until July

If she does end up going to Paris with GB and beating Kellie Harrington, questions will be asked of the IABA allowing it

I also think her behaviour has been incredibly disrespectful to Grainne Walsh

I suppose she will turn pro as 4 years is a long time to wait with no guarantees, even if she is Irish no. 1 something as simple as a hand injury in training could ruin it all again. Then factor in that she has only so many years to make money so she needs to make hay while the sun shines. If she does get the switch to Team GB and meals in Paris it could significantly up her earning potential in the pro ranks, Eddie Hearn would be all over her like a rash. I feel very bad for her and kind of understand what she's doing but I would tend to agree with Dodge in that I wouldn't like to see her selected for GB, especially if she ended up with the potential to scupper Irish medal chances.

If this is how she feels about the Olympics, Why turn pro? Fair enough, this how I should feel but for some reason its not. I just hope it doesn't work out.

I hope she doesn’t get selected. If she does get selected, I hope she doesn’t qualify. If she qualifies, I hope she loses The same way I feel about Saskia Tidey in sailing FWIW she’s out a statement to say she’s exploring all options

The time frame does seem incredibly short so hard to see how it could credibly happen but stranger things have happened. Didn't Tyson Fury attempt a similar allegiance switch circa 2008 only for the Irish clubs to kick up a fuss and block it? Pity in a way as we had no real contenders at heavyweight back then ourselves. If she does get the nod and then qualify I think its inevitable really that she'll meet Harrington, most likely in the quarter final. I've been following Ireland at Olympics long enough to know that we get a lot of bad luck which often borders on the bizarre.

It seems to me that it is just too compressed a time frame for it to actually happen. A lot needs to happen in a very short period of time. To be fair to Amy Broadhurst all she has ever said is the Olympics are her dream and her number one goal. She could have transferred to GB two years when it was clear Kellie was getting the Irish selection at 60kg but opted to try to compete at significantly above her natural weight to compete for Ireland. In the unlikely event it is actually possible GB would be crazy to not throw out their selection policy and pick her over Shona Whitwell especially given the severe lack of medal contenders in the British squad at the moment. I dont think I'd hold this against her and if it does happen and she ends up with an Olympic medal as long as she doesn't beat Kellie I think I would be happy for her. I think I would prefer it just doesn't work out though so hopefully dodge's source is right. Out of interest how do the rest of us feel if she was to win an Olympic medal for Paris. I think Sky Brown was the only medal they won in Tokyo where I was happy to see a Brit win and that was A. a cool story and B. she is very much only part British. It will be strange though now if she does end up winning a world title as a pro is it for Britain or Ireland. Finally I do wonder why she doesn't consider more strongly sticking around in the amateurs for LA. I know everytime you mention LA you have to caveat it with ifs and maybes but in all likelihood boxing will end up on the program. Everything Amy has ever said and done indicates the Olympics are what she dreams of. Is your pro career really going to be that different whether you start it at 27 or 31. Like it will probably be 8-10 years or so regardless of when it starts. Is potentially a couple of additional years in the pro ranks really worth giving up on the Olympics assuming this latest pathway doesn't work out. Like Kellie is done after Paris and sure there are some impressive youngsters like Ava Henry and Siofra Lawless coming through but its mostly at 63kg and if you're a 63kg boxer at youth level you're probably at least at 66kg boxer in the senior ranks and regardless Amy would then be in the position selection wise that she was the wrong side of for the last two Olympic cycles.

IABA say they’re disappointed but if it’s what she really wants, they won’t stay in her way Had a quick chat with someone who should know and he thinks it won’t happen because GB have their own process

Neil is usually on the ball a

Looks like Amy Broadhurst attempting to switch to Team GB for final qualifier to try qualify at 60kg, would this be allowed, is there not usually a sit-out period of a couple of years in most sports? Imagine Walsh doesn't qualify at 66kg and Broadhurst knocks Harrington out in Paris, would really be egg on the face for the Irish team

Just on Tara Hanlon, she’s no longer part of the national squad, so you can rule her out of future combinations

https://www.rowingireland.ie/2024-world-cup-i-team-announcement/ Well well well, This is an interesting one. The heavyweights normally train in Varese so I suspect us going to world cup 1 is just because it is slightly more conveniant and well slightly higher standard of competition than our typical preseason regatta in Piediluco which was last weekend. The absence of the lightweights probably confirms my suspicion that this is just an end of training camp regatta more than anything else but there are only two weeks between world cup 1 and Europeans and then just 3 weeks from there to FOQR so it is definitely possible that for our not yet qualified boats this will be the only time we see them before FOQR. So no obvious changes in priority boats so despite it seemingly being on the table of prioritising the womens four over the pair, Murtagh and Keogh must be showing medal potential or at least better medal chances than a hypothethical prioritised four. Emily Hegarty as expected comes back in to stroke the four having missed last season through injury but interestingly it is Sanita who isn't in the boat (Natalie Long, Eimear Lambe, Imogen Magner keep their places). Sanita is selected in the single which I suppose will be interesting and probably will get a fair bit of a hype but she very likely missed out on the four so I would probably set the initial expectations quite low and just being in contention to qualify from FOQR would be a big achievement. It probably is the end of Sanita's slim hopes of ending her career with an Olympic medal her career so clearly deserves but until we until we actually see her race we can dream that she chose to race the single and that this is last hurrah in the boat that has made her career. Anyway the likes of Aurelia Maxima Janzen , Virginia Dias Rivas and (H)anna Prakat(s)en / (Should qualify the Asian continental route but may have some competition from the two Uzbek lightweight doubles. They would presumably pick Prakaten if they all won at Asian continental qualifiers but they might gamble if they think Prakaten can qualify through FOQR or maybe she just doesn't win.) haven't yet qualified in the single so I think realistically based on this Sanita will probably end her career as the alternate for the Olympics assuming we qualify the four and get an alternate. (Pretty sure they tightened the number of alternate athletes you can take so its just the 4-/4x/8+ that gets them now.) I hope I'm wrong though. Alison Bergin and Zoe Hyde are very clearly the double but aren't racing here for some reason. Wouldn't be too worried about that, hopefully we see them at Europeans. Tara Hanlon, Aisling Hayes and Holly Davis miss out. You can race up to four boats per boatclass at world cup 1 so if they are in Varese it seems strange not to give them a hit out especially Holly Davis who is presumably targeting an under 23 world medal this year. The mens double is unchanged so Daire Lynch keeps his spot alongside Philip Doyle and the Sinkovic's switching to the pair clearly hasn't scared us into prioritising the four and we have stuck with Nathan Timoney, Ross Corrigan pair. Wouldn't be that shocked if one or both of these boats end up skipping world cup 1 and just focusing on Europeans, the womens pair is in that category too. I mentioned I thought it was possible we would make a decision between prioritising the four or the quad. I did really want a quad but we have gone with a four. Andrew Sheahan and Ronan Byrne! move from the quad into the four replacing Adam Murphy and Fionnan McQuillan Tolan. Sheahan has won under 23 medals in the four but as far as I know Byrne has never raced outside a sculling boat. John Kearney and Jack Dorney unsurprisingly keep their spots. I think the logic here is that going with a four then frees up Brian Colsh for the single but if the four narrowly misses out on qualifying, that theoretical quad may come back to haunt us. Brian Colsh in the single is an interesting move. He is built like a single sculler and obviously his form and I assume his power numbers have probably been great over the past couple of years but it didn't translate to good results in the single at 2022 worlds or last years Europeans albeit the entire squad didn't seem in great shape at last years Europeans. His under 23 world champion double partner Konan Pazzaia also gets a race here in the single which is either a good indication of his form or possibly a reason to not get too excited about Colsh's chances of making the Olympics. (I'm tempted to read into Pazzaia's name being above Colsh's in the selection announcement but I'll refrain from doing so) Assuming it is Colsh that races FOQR and we don't spontaneously make massive changes this is a but harsh on Pazzaia and Adam Murphy as they had both earned a shot at making the Olympics. Both should have multiple future Olympic cycles in them though. As for Fionnan McQuillan Tolan, as soon as we opted against sticking with trying to qualify both a four and a quad his chances were probably done although Natalie Long has proven that older athletes can force their way into the reckoning in a subsequent Olympic cycle having not really been that close before. Normally with early season regattas like Piediluco we don't really need to be too worried about form and stuff but for the 2 fours and the at this point 3 singles they need to look good here and while full entries aren't out yet I would expect to see a fair few of their major competition for qualification at this regatta. Also for the M2x and both pairs the Olympics are over a month earlier than world champs typically are. Now the world cup season shifts forward accordingly but I would still hope to see them in good form here. From a qualifying perspective. One further mens boat and one more womens boat should be the minimum expectation for the quality in this squad. The womens four should qualify and I'd be fairly optimistic about the men's one. We will have a much better idea of our chances in the singles after this regatta. Colsh is talented enough but hasn't proven it in the single yet and Sanita Puspure, well lets wait and see. Qualifying singles at FOQR though is tough given how volatile the boatclass is, even if some of the competition is eligible for continental quotas.

https://www.irishnews.com/sport/amy-broadhurst-everything-ive-put-in-over-the-last-22-years-it-just-feels-like-its-been-blown-away-NSBELKXOX5GJ7KB4X2EBZMXPVE/ I don't understand this decision but best of the luck to Grainne Walsh I guess. Heartbreaking end to her amateur career for Amy Broadhurst. One of our best ever female boxers and yet we never managed to get her to an Olympics. I'd fully expect her to go on to win a world title as a pro but its not the same as an Olympic medal. On a more optimistic note, looks like Wexford boxing's media propaganda campaign over Dean Walsh has failed miserably.

Why not? Let's have the conversation. Is that not what this thread is for? She has 8 international fights and 3 losses in the past year. What's the fourth? All of the losses split decisions. She lost to 2022 European champion 52kg Tetyana Kob at Usti Nad Labem and then reversed that and beat her at European games. Then lost to World bronze medallist Wassila Lkhadiri in a very close fight at European games and then "loses" a fight here that for me she deserved to win against a boxer who just beat the World and Asian champions at Strandja. I guess your refering to the Nikolina Cacic fight at European under22s in 2022. Yeah that was a bad loss but I would make the observation that Nikolina Cacic is in fact an Olympian at 57kg and that Moorehouse is miles better now than she was a couple of years ago. She is young, young boxers improve. Only counting international fights is also a weird way of counting this when Caitlin Fryers is a 2022 European silver medallist in this weightclass and Shannon Sweeney is also a European medallist. You don't stop being an Olympic calibre boxer just because you lose split decisions against some of the best boxers in the world. Like Jude Gallagher had 3 international fights last year and lost all 3. You add in the context that one was against they were against the European champion (Javier Ibanez Diaz), the panam and 2021 world champion (Jahmal Harvey) and Strandja silver medallist (Orazbek Assylkulov)(lost to Ibanez Diaz and beat two other now qualified Olympians including the now World champion plus the reigning European champ at the time at the same tournament.) He qualified here and looks a decent outside bet for an Olympic medal. I just think this a very reductive way of looking at Moorehouse. Her results are consistent with a comfortably top 8-10 boxer in the world. I had her 10th when I ranked them in December. I would move her up a couple of spots now having beaten Thi Tham Nguyen. Boxrec currently has her 9th with one per nation. (10th with double Japan.) Lastly there are 22 spots at W50kg (well 21 plus a universality spot). Even if you are a bit lower on Moorehouse you should still expect her to qualify. There really isn't a bad draw left other than maybe Namiki as I said. He seemed happy enough here. Certainly possible but I think if he is in a good place mentally which he seems to be he will go.

There’s plenty of speculation in that post and I’m not going to argue point by point I’ll just say specifically on Moorhouse, she’s had 9 fights against non Irish women in the last year and lost 4 of them. I’m not saying she has no chance, but she needs a very good draw. I hope they all get OK draws and way more than I think get through FWIW I don’t think Aidan Walsh will go to Thailand. Just a bunch

Who do you think would beat Moorehouse? She has beaten Thi Tham Nguyen and Tetyana Kob . She looked a lot stronger than the likes of Alua Balkybekova , Natalia Kuczewska and Pihla Kaivo Oja at this tournament. Maybe if Olympic medallist Tsukimi Namiki comes back into the Japan squad but even then I think I would back Moorehouse. Probability doesn't work like this but there is a bit of she has to get a good draw eventually right? I would be more worried about Cassidy given there are only three quotas left and a just under 25% chance he draws Alfiorau before the semis. Cassidy has improved a lot since he lost to Alfiorau in 2021 and got a lot closer to beating Oralbay than Alfiorau did so it certainly wouldn't be a gauranteed loss but I'm sure Cassidy is sick of having to beat world champions just to qualify. (I know Alfiorau is technically only a world silver medallist but still) I think a lot of luck for the others is a bit strong. It would help but like there is no one left that Aidan Walsh or Jennifer Lehane can't beat. Walsh, I think would love a second go at Wanderson but Wanderson would start as favourite. He has beaten Nishant Dev before. Zakhareiev , Eashash and Schachidov would all be close fights but I think Walsh would start as the favourite. He would definitely be favoured against Durkacz , Cuellar or Richardson . Obviously ideally he would only have to beat 1 maybe 2 of these boxers but he certainly doesn't "need" a lot of luck with the draw. Plus there are five quotas so a little bit of extra scope draw wise. There will probably be one weird one like Kiwan this time around but like probably at least 4 of the 9 boxers I mentioned will qualify and Walsh is at worst in the middle of that pack. Lehane admittedly has it a bit tougher but like, for me at least she is better than Sirine Charaabi and Thi Kim Anh Vo who qualified here. Obviously don't really know exactly what happened against Romane Moulai and if she can't beat Moulai or that kind of calibre of boxer again ye she probably isn't making the Olympics. Hsiao wen Huang and Anastasia Kovalchuk losing here doesn't help although Kovalchuk's recent form has been terrible so maybe that fight would be winnable. Zhaina Shekerbekova , Sandra Drabik , Johana Gomez , Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (assuming Mongolia show up to the second qualifier), the aforementioned Moulai, Im Aeji (who beat Hsiao Wen Huang and deserved to beat Charaabi) and maybe Scarlett Delgado would all be tough. She beat Sara Cirkovic which in hindsight was a really good win and obviously outclassed Niamh Fay at nationals who I think has beaten 4 boxers who are now qualified for the Olympics (in 3 different weightclasses) over the last couple of years. (If only Niamh Fay was in any way consistent ay.) Like she is capable of this calibre of win. Also the draw obviously could be very kind (Kovalchuk had a kind draw here and then bottled it losing to Islem Ferchichi . I have no idea why Ukraine did so poorly here. Yeah I know, there is a war on but like this was still a remarkably awful performance from Ukraine.) but when you have a situation where you have 8/9 fairly evenly matched boxers for 4 quotas you kind of know on balance you will have to beat 1 or 2 of said boxers. I think she is good enough but let's see. Martin McDonagh obviously is still a long shot but he is rapidly improving. Took 2 really good wins here and had the closest fight of the tournament against a Tokyo Olympian. Obviously with the likes of Fernando Arzola and Danabieke Bayikewuzi still in the mix qualifying is very unlikely but Omar Shiha managed to ride his luck a bit here and get a quota and I don't think he is much better than McDonagh. There are still probably 9 or so boxers definitely ahead of McDonagh so he would need to cause possibly multiple upsets but they happen especially at super heavyweight. The optimistic way of looking at things for Sean Mari is well Juanma Lopez came out of nowhere and through a weak bracket to qualify here. You need to be very optimistic to convince yourself that Mari still has a chance though. I just kind of hope he gets a straightforward draw in his first couple of fights. Losing his first fight at all 3 qualifying tournaments would be harsh on the man. Just for completeness W66kg whether it is Walsh/ Broadhurst/ O'Rourke (I think O'Rourke is unlikely at this point. Feel like if she was going to get picked it would have been here. Hopefully she gets her chance in LA.). Getting Stefanie Von Berge again wouldn't be ideal but us qualifying at W66kg has to be the safest pick of any of the 51 quotas available at the second world qualifer. So for me disregarding injury risk, surprise selections or a robbery worse than the Grainne Walsh one today our chances look roughly like. Boxer Qualification chance Daina Moorehouse 75%-85% Jennifer Lehane 45%-55% Grainne Walsh/ Amy Broadhurst 90%-95% Sean Mari 1%-2% Aidan Walsh 60%-70% Kelyn Cassidy 75%-80% Martin McDonagh 5%-10% Cumalative expected qualifiers 3.51-3.97 boxers So I am still at should get 3 (9 in total), hopefully get 4 (10), Not out of the question we could get 5 (11) but at this point that is unlikely. Then again, Unfortunately the risk of falling even of the IABA's original taget of 8 still exists when we really could (and should) have been going into the final qualifier mostly playing with house money.

We need luck with draws for anyone other than Cassidy and the 66kg woman (whoever it is) We need a little luck with them too but the others need a lot of luck. Moorehouse included

Why just 2? Something will have to have gone very wrong if Daina Moorehouse, Grainne Walsh/ Amy Broadhurst or Kelyn Cassidy don't secure a quota at the last one. I would rank us 1st of the remaining boxers at W50kg and W66kg (regardless of who we pick). Cassidy just needs to avoid Alfiorau although he could absolutely beat him even if he did draw him. Aidan Walsh and Jennifer Lehane are both in the mix maybe a little bit more dependent on the draw but still very much in with a shout. Wouldn't entirely rule out Niamh Fay coming into the squad but its unlikely. McDonagh impressed here, qualifying is a tough ask but boxers worse than him managed to get a quota here. Mari would need a miracle. Besides how many 3-2 split decisions in quota fights can we possibly lose? 3 at European games (counting the Cassidy Khyzniak 3-0), 2 here plus the Moorehouse Bobokulova fight which was effectively for the quota in that bracket. (I mean there was the McDonagh one as well but Lenzi would have been tough even if he had got that decision.) I thought all three of the big ones at this tournament should have gone our way. The Cassidy Oralbay fight was genuinely 50-50 so ye know you'll lose some of them but still fuming about the Grainne Walsh and Daina Moorehouse decisions. Like if you had told me before our nine European games quarter finals that we would only have six qualified after the first world qualifying tournament. Look we can still get 10 and 9 should still be the baseline but man I feel like we should already have 9. Anyway delighted for Jude Gallagher. Carlo Paalam getting injured against Andrey Bonilla and subsequently having to withdraw obviously helped but the form Gallagher is in. May well have beaten him anyway. His win against Mohamed Hussam uddin was worthy of a quota anyway.

+1 for boxing. Jude Gallagher I think we’ll add 2 at the next one

Paris 2024 Qualification - Team Ireland Jack Woolley qualifies for his second Olympic Games in taekwondo and becomes the 91st member of Team Ireland! IRELAND 91 Total Athletes 50 Men 34 Women 46 Total Events 11 Total Sports Taekwondo Event Athlete Qualification Route Men's -58kg Jack Woolley ETU European Olympic Qualifier March 10, 2024 Events 1 Athletes 1 Team Ireland Qualification Tracker