Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[thiago_simoes 1,458]

On 7/22/2022 at 1:58 PM, LDOG said:

Gymnastics Rhythmic: 0-1.

Maybe with luck and good performance we can qualify for the 1st time.

Wait, what? So you mean that Anahí Sosa has never qualified to the Olympics? This is shocking! She's the best individual gymnast South America has ever had!

I'm sure Sol Martínez will qualify this time. 

[LDOG 2,480]

35 minutes ago, thiago_simoes said:

Wait, what? So you mean that Anahí Sosa has never qualified to the Olympics? This is shocking! She's the best individual gymnast South America has ever had!
 

For a long time I was sure that had happened but a compatriot here once told me it didn't and I went to Wikipedia to check and apparently no, Argentina never qualified anyone.  

 

This is some Mandela Effect type of shit...

I vividly remember when I was in school that I bought a review magazine from Athens with articles about all the national performances and that she was mentioned with a result but seemingly that was never the case  and I lost that magazine unfortunately. 

[thiago_simoes 1,458]

4 hours ago, LDOG said:

This is some Mandela Effect type of shit...

It's funny because this also happened with Mexico. I was sure Mexico had qualified in rhythmic gymnastics prior to 2020, but this never happened.

 

Now, I'll read the qualification documents, but I believe that Sol Martinez will be able to qualify easily. She's my favorite gymnast in the Americas nowadays. She's in a league of her own. 

[Werloc 3,191]

Okay, I'll have a shot at this, barring injuries, retirements and disasters, perhaps I might get very accurate.

 

In Tokyo we had a very unsuccessful Olympics with 42 athletes and only a single medal, I think it shouldn't be too difficult to better this performance, but let's see sport by sport.

 

We had 0 in archery and artistic swimming and we'll continue to have 0 in both.

 

In athletics we had 11 athletes: Truskauskas, Žiūkas, Mastianica, Gudžius, Matusevičius and Jasiūnaitė should make it. Šerkšnienė and Virbalytė probably gonna be retired. Palšytė, Zagainova and Glebauskas are question marks. I have high hopes for Morauskaitė, Galvydytė, Karinauskaitė, Baikštys, Baikštytė, two marathon runners, one additional race walker at least, Petrokaitė, Kilty, Mykolas Alekna, Martynas Alekna, Zarankaitė and Benkunskas.

 

This would up our athletes in athletics to 20 and if things go well, the number could even rise to 24.

 

Badminton - probably 0

 

Basketball - one of the most unpredictable sports with so little spots to qualify, the results have not been looking so stellar, so I'll go with won't qualify again.

 

Basketball 3x3 - both the men's and women's teams are showing brilliant results right now, I'd assume they should be able to qualify both.

 

Beach Volleyball - we have some very capable teams and two female teams qualified to the European Championship, but qualification in this event is super tough, so I'd say 0 this time too.

 

Boxing - we have strong men and women, but when it comes to qualifying, it's always a struggle, so I'll settle for a confident 1 (either man, or woman)

 

Breaking - I think we have one girl that's been taking titles left and right, so 1

 

Canoeing Slalom - Just no

 

Canoeing Sprint - in Tokyo we suffered a major disaster with only 1 athlete qualifying. Nearly everybody had to change disciplines and it affected all of our sprinters. This time everyone will feel more secure during the qualification period, so it would be safe to guess three boats - one single, one double, one four. It's likely we could qualify more, doubt that our women have any chance.

 

Cycling BMX/Cycling Mountain Bike - 0 in Tokyo, could hope for 1-2 athletes in Paris.

 

Cycling Road - we had 2 athletes in Tokyo, I'm going to go with a bold guess we'll qualify 3 somehow.

 

Cycling Track - 3 athletes in Tokyo, though without Krupeckaitė, no chance to qualify a team. The men are forming a sprint team, but too much work there to fix in so little time. Lendel, Marozaitė, Baleišytė could qualify in their individual events.

 

Diving, Equestrian, Fencing, Field Hockey, Football, Golf, Rhythmic Gymnastics - SKIP

 

Gymnastics Artistic - two men are possible

 

Judo - we had 1 in Tokyo, 1 in Paris should be doable.

 

Modern Pentathlon - 3 in Tokyo, 3 in Paris probably as well.

 

Rowing - we had an amazing team of 9 in Tokyo, 9-10 could be possible for Paris as well, but everyone will need to step up in the next two years.

 

Sailing - probably not better than 2 just like in Tokyo

 

Shooting, Skateboarding, Sport-climbing, Surfing - NOPE

 

Swimming - this one is the most interesting and tough to predict, because we have a huge amount of talent, but it's uncertain if there's enough time for them to grow into Olympic level. We had 6 swimmers in Tokyo, but I think we should be capable to beat this number.

 

Rapšys, Šidlauskas, Savickas, Pancerevas, Navikonis, Pavlidi, Grigaitis, Teterevkova, Meilutytė, Plytnykaitė, Margevičius, Statkevičius. Yes, it's a very very brave prediction, I'm even dreaming about a women's freestyle relay, but a season and a half might not be enough.  Still, let's say a very questionable 12 for now

 

Add 1 more to tennis and two more to wrestling, and I think you have my final prediction:

 

 

Projected amount of Lithuanian athletes in Paris - 77 , could go up to 89 if we qualify men's basketball. 

 

Projected amount of medals for Lithuanian athletes in Paris - 1 in athletics, 1 in swimming, 1 in modern pentathlon, 1 in rowing would be my guess, with possibilities of another 1-2 in athletics, 1 in swimming, 1-2 in rowing, 1 in canoeing sprint, 1 in boxing, 1-2 in basketball 3x3

[Laraja 1,523]

Archery: Brazil is improving in this sport. We got two WC medals in men's individual and mixed team, so I believe we will get one men and women's teams

Artistic Swimming: Not sure about the chances here. I think that with some luck we could get a pair in this sport.

Athletics: As usual we will have a plenty of athletes here, but the question is how many of them will be able to fight for medals. We need to improve our quality and performance in those competitions

Badminton: One mand and woman

Basketball: So, I don't want to create hope for our qualification here. Lately Brazil is disappointing so much in the main tournaments and  especially during the qualifying competitions. However, the men's team performance is getting better, so I expecting that we will not miss Basketball this time.

 

Basketball 3x3: It is the same of Basketball, failures at important moments. I think we don't have chances in women's side, but there is a small chance at men's side

Beach Volleyball: After that disappointment at Tokyo, and excellent performance at last worlds, we got back our hopes to get medals here, so full quota is very likely again

Boxing: I am not sure here either. The work of our confederation at this sport is amazing, it headed our medal table at Tokyo, and will be important for next Olympics. So 6 or 7 athletes maybe

 

Breaking: We have a great men's team, I believe that at least one man will qualify. For women's it is going to be tough.

Canoeing - Slalom: two or three athletes, trying to win the extreme

Canoeing - Sprint: three or four athletes, but only two real chances of medal

Cycling - BMX: As usual, one man and woman for racing. Freestyle no chances to 

Cycling - Mountain Bike: Two men and one woman

Cycling - Road: probably we will not qualify here again

Cycling - Track: I saw that we have a small chance in one of female competitions, but I am not expecting quotas here

Diving: three or four athletes are possible

Equestrian: I hope for full quota here, and the confederation does not make the same mistakes losing the dressage team quota

Fencing: two or three fencers, maybe a team with too much luck

Field Hockey:  I believe that Field Hockey is the only olympic sport that we don't have even a perspective to improve

Football: Women's team is already qualified, but for men's side it is gonna be harder, even though I believe we can qualify one more time

Golf: A very small chance to get one golfer at men's competition

Gymnastics - Artistic: I believe both teams will qualify

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Brazil has improved a lot here, one team and one individual could get

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Maybe one female athlete

Handball: Hoping for both teams qualifying, without drama this time

Judo: Also, I am expecting fourteen quotas here, and a little of improvement compared to Tokyo

Modern Pentathlon: Sadly our medal at London hasn't changed our expectations and quality on this sport. We had one female at Tokyo, and her performance wasn't so good. We don't have any athlete performing well at Worlds or WC competitions

Rowing: 2 athletes would be awesome, if we look at our perfomance at it

Rugby Sevens: I believe that women's team will qualify again, but the gap between us and the other teams is getting smaller every time. For men's competition it is a hard task

Sailing: We just missed two events at Tokyo, I believe we will have a similar situation.

Shooting: Maybe one quota, let's see if our athletes can do better at Panamerican and get some quotas

Skateboarding: Full quota. It is not going to be so easy at men's street, but I think we will send 12 skaters again

Sport Climbing: Unfortunately the level of this sport in Brazil is far from any chance

Surfing: I think we will get one female and two male easily. The third quota for men's side is likely. Maybe a second quota for women

Swimming: It is the  same than Athletics. Many athletes, few chances

Table Tennis: Full quota here. We even have some hope for medal.

Taekwondo: We have some athletes among the top, and I think they will get quotas by ranking. The

Tennis: six athletes is a good number

Triathlon: three or four athletes, maybe relay team

Volleyball: easily both teams will qualify, but I am worried about men's team performance lately

Water Polo: Men's team has a chance to qualify, but we will have to cheer for USA

Weightlifting: Not sure, after the retirement of our best athletes, I believe we will get two quota at best
 

Wrestling: two or three quotas at women's side are possible. Maybe one for men

[dcro 10,211]

8 hours ago, Werloc said:

Diving, Equestrian, Fencing, Field Hockey, Football, Golf, Rhythmic Gymnastics - SKIP

Justina Vanagaite would respectably disagree. You might wanna check her out.

 

Pretty good chance Lithuania makes their debut in equestrian. And if you-know-who is not allowed back for the qualification process, then 1-4 athletes are possible (between Vanagaite, Sysojeva, Katinaite-Pranckeviciene in dressage and Vitkauskas in eventing).

[EselTheDonkey 838]

Archery: I hope for at least 4 participants (one team and an individual in the other gender). A full team in both events is also possible.

Artistic Swimming: Nah

Athletics: I am convinced it will be at least 60.  

Badminton: They may be outsiders, but we always got a few participants and I hope, the trend will continue.

Basketball: Secretly hoping for men's team to qualify.

Beach Volleyball: After it didn't work out in Tokyo, I hope we'll have two teams per gender again.

Boxing: Maybe 4-5?

 

Breaking: No idea

Canoeing - Slalom: Hoping for full team.

Canoeing - Sprint: Full team or at least very close to it.

Cycling - BMX: Maybe 1 or 2 athletes

Cycling - Mountain Bike:  2-3

Cycling - Road: They should aim for full team in both genders.

Cycling - Track: 10+

Diving: Hoping for a big team, though qualification in synchronized events is always a bit tricky.

Equestrian: Full team. Everything else would be a big disappointment.

Fencing: Realistically speaking, three equipes would be a maximum.

Field Hockey:  Both teams.

Football:  I hope for both teams.

Golf:  Given that there will probably be many withdrawals again: 2 women and men each.

Gymnastics - Artistic: Hoping for both teams.

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 1 athlete

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Don't know.

Handball: Expecting at least one team, hoping for both.

Judo: At least enough to qualify for the team event.

Modern Pentathlon: 4

Rowing: I'm guessing we'll qualify in about 5 to 7 events. But I'm certainly hoping for more.

Rugby Sevens: Probably 0. Though one may be allowed to dream.

Sailing: About 10.

Shooting: Hoping for at least 10. Tokyo was a disappointment in every way.

Skateboarding: Maybe 1 or 2

Sport Climbing: About 2

Surfing: No idea.

Swimming: 25-30

Table Tennis: Both teams

Taekwondo: 1-2

Tennis: At least 8

Triathlon: I'm optimistic that the Mixed relay will qualify. So at least 4.

Volleyball: Realistically 0. But one can hope.

Water Polo:  0

Weightlifting: About 5 maybe.

Wrestling: Also about 5-6. 

[Werloc 3,191]

9 hours ago, dcro said:

Justina Vanagaite would respectably disagree. You might wanna check her out.

 

Pretty good chance Lithuania makes their debut in equestrian. And if you-know-who is not allowed back for the qualification process, then 1-4 athletes are possible (between Vanagaite, Sysojeva, Katinaite-Pranckeviciene in dressage and Vitkauskas in eventing).

Voldemort is entertaining the idea of trying to qualify to Olympics again? 

 

Not gonna lie, I'm just writing off events that we have no history in and equestrian is one of those sports, where I haven't seen us do that well.

 

Plus this sport is one angry German coach away from being a human obstacle course race  

[Josh 13,568]

Team Canada Paris 2024 Predictions

 

Team Size (Optimistic, Realistic, Pessimistic)- 430/410/380

 

-

 

Archery: Hopefully at least one

 

Artistic Swimming: As we've qualified for every single Artistic Swimming event, ever since it was introduced in the 1984 Olympics I think it would be a safe bet to say we qualify a full team of ten athletes. 

 

Athletics: Around 60 athletes

 

3x3 Basketball: 4 athletes (Women's Team)

 

Basketball: Most likely going to qualify both the men's and women's teams 

 

Beach Volleyball: One men's pair and two women's pairs

 

Breaking: LOL

 

-0 athletes 

 

Badminton: Michelle Li will almost definitely qualify in the women's singles event. Honderich/Tsai will qualify in the women's doubles. Brian Yang in the men's singles. I'm going to predict a decrease in athletes as I think we will not qualify a Mixed Doubles team, or a Men's Doubles Team.

 

-4 athletes

 

Boxing: Tammara Thibeault , Caroline Veyre and Myriam Da Silva will all qualify.

 

-3 athletes

 

Cycling- Road: Hugo Houle in both road race and time trial.  Michael Woods in road race. Pier-André Côté in road race and time trial. Leah Kirchmann in road and time trial. Karol Ann Canuel in road and time trial. Alison Jackson in road race. 

 

Houle and Woods could content for medals. 

 

-6 athletes

 

Cycling- Track: Kelsey Mitchell should qualify in both sprint and keirin. Sarah Orban should make her Olympic debut. Erin Atwell maybe.  Nick Wammes will be the only male track cyclist competing at Paris and should qualify in both sprint and keirin.  Lauraine Genest should qualify in both sprint and keirin. Allison Beveridge should qualify in womens omnium. We should qualify a full team (4) in the Women's Team Pursuit. We should qualify a full team (4) in the Men's Team Pursuit, and in the men's madison (2) but it's not a guarentee. 

 

Kelsey Mitchell (2020 Olympic Champion) and Lauraine Genest (2020 Olympic Bronze) are the main medal contenders.

 

-13 athletes

 

Cycling- Mountain Biking: Only expecting three athletes here, Catherine Pendrel and Emily Batty in the Women's Event, and Peter Disera in the Men's Event.

 

Both the females could contend for a medal. 

 

-3 athletes

 

Cycling- BMX: Tory Nyhaug in the men's race, and Drew Mechielsen in the women's event

 

-2 athletes

 

[TeamGB 216]

   Team Great Britain early qualification predictions   

 

Archery

3-6 athletes - Definitely Women's team, especially with Bryony Pitman. Men's Team may be harder but is still possible,

 

Artistic Swimming 

0-2 athletes - Duet likely but not guaranteed

 

Athletics

70-85 athletes - We sent 77 to Tokyo and 81 to the worlds and have lots of young talent coming through (unfortunately just on track), but we have a strong chance of sending more than Tokyo, although it does come down to injuries as we don't have the depth to replace athletes if they become injured in some events.

 

Badminton

4-6 athletes - Unlikely we will send anyone in the singles but a few good shouts in the doubles.

 

Basketball

0 athletes

 

Boxing

10-13 athletes - A lot of strength across all the home nations so chances in virtually every weight category.

 

Breaking

0-2 athletes - No idea of our talent here, I would hope to qualify at least one athlete though.

 

Canoeing

Sprint - 2-5 athletes - It will be hard with the retirement of Liam Heath but I was impressed by our women's K4 at the europeans.

Slalom - 3-4 - With the addition of extreme kayak we have some good medal chances.

 

Cycling

Track - 10-12 athletes - With the Women's Team Sprint moving up to 3 athletes we should have a good chance of qualifying that for the first time since London.

Road - 6-8 athletes - It will all depend on the rankings but I hope we can send at least one team of four for the road race.

Mountain Bike - 2-4 athletes- I am slightly worried that Tom Pidcock may not qualify if he doesn't start competing in a few more world cups.

BMX- 3-5 athletes- around the same as Tokyo with probably just on athlete in each event.

 

Diving

10-12 athletes - The same as Tokyo but with a few more medals this time, especially on the women's side

 

Equestrian

9/9 or there will be riots among the English upper class.

 

Fencing

0-2 athletes - A couple of individual fencers but no teams

 

Field Hockey

16-32 athletes - I would expect a full quota after the successes at the commonwealth games.

 

Football

0-18 athletes - No men's team but the women's should qualify. With it all depending on the world cup there is always some jeopardy.

 

Golf

3-4 athletes but it all depends on wether they decide to go or focus on other tournaments.

 

Gymnastics

10 - I would expect a full team considering our recent successes at European level.

 

Handball

0 athletes

 

Judo

3-5 athletes - Mainly on the women's side which means no chance for the mixed team.

 

Modern Pentathlon

3-4 athletes after our double gold in Tokyo

 

Rowing

40-50 athletes - Tokyo was disappointing but the Europeans gave me some hope.

 

Rugby 7's

12-24 athletes but we are heading in the wrong direction

 

Sailing

12-14 athletes - Hopefully a full quota but a lot of retirements since Tokyo

 

Shooting

5-8 athletes - Skeet and Trap are our only real chances, but it would be nice to get two in each event, especially skeet so we can qualify 2 mixed teams.

 

Skateboarding

0-2 athletes - Sky Brown wants to do both skating and surfing in Paris, which will be hard since they are 10000 miles away.

 

Sport Climbing

0-2 athletes - With the retirement of S.Coxsley it will be hard but I hope world Bronze medallist Hamish Macarthur will qualify.

 

Surfing

0-1 Athletes- See Skateboarding

 

Swimming

30-40 - We sent 32 to Tokyo but I would expect more in Paris with lots of new talent coming through.

 

Table Tennis

1-3 athletes - Pitchford, Drinkhall and Ho competed in Tokyo, and perhaps Anna Hursey could qualiy after her success at the commonwealths, athough for hur she could always compete in 2028 and beyond.

 

Taekwondo

4-7 athletes - but if the Russians remain banned it opens up more spots.

 

Tennis

4-7 athletes - It likely depends if people double up or even skip the olympics to focus on rankings. (I know that Brits are terrible on Clay)

 

Triathlon

4-6 athletes - The women are more likely to qualify 3 than the men but it's not impossible for both

 

Volleyball

0 athletes

 

Weightlifting

2-5 athletes - We need more on the men's side but the women are strong

 

 

Totals

 

Optimistic - 385 (We sent 370 to Tokyo)

 

Pessimistic - 269

 

Expectation - Anything over 350 would be great