How Many Athletes will Your Nation Qualify for the Summer Olympic Games 2020?

[EselTheDonkey 824]

vor 27 Minuten schrieb OlympicsFan:

Swimming: In 2016 Germany had 29 athletes in swimming, i think it will be about the same this time. Lambertz sadly always wants to nominate relays, so there you already have about 20 athletes, if you add open water, you are at 24-25 and then we have athletes like Köhler, Wellbrock, Hentke, Heintz who are probably gonna make it too.

Athletics: I was surprised to see that Germany had 85 athletes in 2016, my surprise probably came from the fact that many of those athletes didnt even make it past the first round and i therefore didnt really notice them. I think it would be better to send 60-70 athletes who mostly have a realistic chance of at least finishing top 12. For example i am not sure whether it would really make sense to nominate any male runners (maybe except for Traber) or any athletes in marathon (maybe except for Melat Yisak Kejeta, if she will be allowed to compete for Germany). One of the most interesting questions for me currently is whether Germany will qualify someone in hammer throw. I hope that one of the talents (Fromm on the womens side, Mikhailov/Hilbig on the mens side) breaks through, but the entry standards are probably gonna be insane again in field events, so i dont really have much hope.

 

 

 

Hilbig is too young to have a realistic chance to qualify for Tokyo. He's only 16 right now and hasn't even competed with the heavier hammer. He's a candidate for Paris 2024.

[Agger 1,662]

 

Archery: Maja Jager seems to be back at a high level and seems like a very likely qualifier. The women's team showed good form in Berlin and may also be an outsider. Meanwhile I don't see any men qualifying, so 0-3

Artistic Swimming: We are pretty close to having nothing here. No qualifiers

Athletics: 4 of the athletes from Rio seems pretty likely to also be at a high level in 2020, while Sara Slott and Andreas Bube are slightly more questionable. Meanwhile a young guy like Benjamin Lobo Vedel looks like an almost certain qualifier if he stays motivated and free of injuries. and we have a bunch of other talents could do it if they manage to lift their level high enough. I wouldn't be surprised if we go 2 digits for the first time since 1972, but we could also very well end up a bit below that. 5-12

Badminton: It would be a disaster if we don't qualify one in each discipline. Women's doubles are the biggest questionmark after Kamilla Rytter Juhl stopping, but I believe Fruergaard/Thygesen are good enough to make it. A good chance for 2 mens singles and doubles as well. 8-11

Baseball: Not gonna happen.

Basketball: We are getting better, but it's a long way!

Beach Volleyball: Trans/Tyndeskov is a decent pair, but unless they do massive progress, it doesn't seem likely.

Boxing: Our most likely Olympic boxer, Mahdi Jallaw, decided to go pro and doesn't seem like a guy who wants to go for the Olympics. Frederik Lundgaard Jensen sounds like the most likely Olympic boxer, but I really don't know much about his or other's chances.

Canoeing - Slalom: We've only just started having national championships. Maybe it's the start of something interesting but 2020 is impossible.

Canoeing - Sprint: Rene Holten and Emma Jørgensen should be safe (if they stay motivated). Both the women's K4 and men's K2 1000m are also pretty likely qualifiers. The men's K4 could also have a chance 2-12

Cycling - BMX: Simone Tetsche should be safe but other than that, it's questionable. She may do well enough to get us into top 5 and get us a 2nd quota, but it seems unlikely. A small chance for a rider in the men's race. Meanwhile BMX freestyle is a no go for us. 1-3

Cycling - Mountain Bike: Annika Langvad should secure a Danish quota. With some help from Malene Degn, it could become 2. Simon Andreassen hasn't quite been at his best so far meaning that Denmark is a bit behind when it comes to the men's rankings, but if he gets back to his best, we should take one for the men as well. 1-3

Cycling - Road: Considering where we're ranked at the moment, we should end up with 4 riders in the men's cycling. A small chance for 5 if we progress even more, but I doubt it. We could have a chance for 2 places in the time trial. We should also finally be back in the women's race, where 3 riders seems like the most likely outcome where one will also be in the TT. 5-8

Cycling - Track: We should be safe in the men's Team pursuit, where the team is young. We should also be able to take part in the men's omnium and madison. The women should qualify for omnium and madison. 4-6

Diving: A tiny chance that Andreas Sargent will be there, possibly with Marting Bang Christensen, but I doubt it.

Equestrian: A team in dressage should be a pretty safe thing, while we would need a lot of luck to qualify in jumping or eventing. 3

Fencing: If the guys progress quite a lot, we have a small chance for a team in men's epee or foil, but it seems unlikely. Andreas Tsoronis, Frederik von der Osten or Patrick Jørgensen may be able to get it just right and get a single place in one of the two classes. 0-1

Field Hockey: We don't have an outdoor national team, so no...

Football: The women's team could do it if they make it to the Worlds and get lucky in the draws. I really don't know much about the current under-21 team. We have a couple of decent players, but other than that, I don't know. I doubt it. 0-18

Golf: It would be disappointing if we don't get 4 players. 4

Gymnastics - Artistic: Our best shot, Marie Skammelsen decided to finish her carreer making it highly unlikely that we'll see a Dane in the Olympics in the near future.

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: We have a couple of gymnasts, but they're in the bottom at the worlds.

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Benjamin Salo Kjær looks like our best bid to get back into the Olympics, but he needs to get a lot better to make it. It's possible, but hard. 0-1

Handball: The men's team should be safe, while it's harder for the women. They are in the mix for it, but could miss out. 14-28

Judo: It doesn't look impossible for Emilie Sook if she keeps on progressing, but there’s still some way to the top. 0-1

Karate: Katrine Pedersen is still young but has already been no. 1 in -68kg. It’s tough, but I believe in her to keep it up, though she may need to fight bigger opponents. 0-1

Modern Pentathlon: We tried creating something again, but I don’t think we’ll make it even though Line Grubak is very ambitious.

Rowing: W1x and M4- seems like very good chances. The LM2x has done surprisingly well as well and M1x should also be able to qualify. The W2- isn’t active at the moment due to some problems for Christina Juhl Johansen. Meanwhile Lærke Berg seems to have made the W4- a serious contender for the Olympic spot. A LW2x could also be possible. 5-14

Rugby Sevens: We’re simply not close to good enough.

Sailing: 49er FX, Laser Radial and Nacra 17 should be sure qualifiers. The 49er is pretty close to sure as well but could miss out. Decent chances for the RS:Xs as well and if Andre Højen does his very best there’s a small chance for a Finn. 5-10

Shooting: Stine Nielsen, Rikke Mæng and Jesper Hansen are all expected to qualify. We have a bunch of other possible qualifiers in both, skeet, rifle and if everything works out, pistol. 3-7

Skateboarding: The only Danish skater that I know is Rune Glifberg. He is getting pretty old but is still competing a bit. I don’t know if he’ll go for the Olympics or anybody else will be able to qualify.

Softball: If it was men’s softball, we could have a small chance, but no.

Sport Climbing: I don’t see anybody qualifying

Surfing: We have some surfers participating in major events, but they seem too far from the top to qualify.

Swimming: Pernille Blume, Mie Ø. Nielsen and Rikke Møller should be safe. Anton Ørskov Ipsen and Viktor Bromer pretty much as well. Jeanette Ottesen goes for the Olympics after getting a child and has done decently so far, meaning that we may have the medley relay back. If Jeanette doesn’t make it, Emilie Beckmann should be good enough to have us qualify. If Jeanette makes it back, we can also get the 4x100 freestyle relay, where Julie Kepp and Sarah Bro could be part as well. Both 4x200m relays aren’t impossible if things work out well. We have some young talents who could also qualify if they progress quite a bit during the next years. 6-16

Table Tennis: Jonathan Groth should qualify without problems. Michael Maze is back on competitive level but haven’t really shown Olympic class so far. I am hoping, but it’s very uncertain. A tiny chance for a team if he makes it back to his best, but that’s very optimistic. 1-3

Taekwondo: Sarah Malykke is very interesting and has some very interesting results, but she is still quite a bit away from the Olympics. It will be tough but not impossible. 0-1

Tennis: This will be a question about whether Wozzie stays active. If she does, she should be in Tokyo, if not I don’t think our young talents aren’t quite ready yet. 0-1

Triathlon: Andreas Schilling should be there. A small chance for the relay team, but I don’t think they’ll quite make it. Alberte Kjær seems like a possible qualifier if she doesn’t get more problems during the qualification period. I doubt that any of the others will make it to individual Olympic level. 1-4

Volleyball No chance

Water Polo: Nope

Weightlifting: A tiny chance considering the restrictions due to doping, but it’s unlikely.

Wrestling: If he gets Danish citizenship, Rajbek Bisultanov is absolutely a possible qualifier. Frederik Bjerrehuus isn’t impossible either, but he’ll need to be at his absolute best. 0-2

 

Total Sports: 19

Optimistic Total Athletes: 175

Realistic Total Athletes: 113

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 68

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 3 Stunden schrieb EselTheDonkey:

 

Hilbig is too young to have a realistic chance to qualify for Tokyo. He's only 16 right now and hasn't even competed with the heavier hammer. He's a candidate for Paris 2024.

Maybe not a "realistic" chance, but i wouldnt say its impossible. Kokhan who is one year older than Hilbig threw 74.74 m with the 5 kg hammer 2 years ago (which is basically where Hilbig is now), 1 year later he threw 71.42 m with the 7.26 kg hammer. If the entry standard will be at 74-75 m, then Hilbig might have a small chance. Of course Mikhailov is more likely to make it, hopefully he can recover from this rather bad season.

[De_Gambassi 1,223]

Archery: The male team should do it, possibly the female's one too, but it's archery, you never know : 2-6 

 

Artistic Swimming: I guess not, perhaps, who cares ? Not me :  2-8

 

Athletics: The federation seems more open to bring youngsters that just make the standards, so I assume a bit more than the ~40 athletes we had the previous olympics: 42-52

 

Badminton: Leverdez as always. Possible one female, Maybe one of the double too (mixed or women) : 1-4

 

Baseball: yeah,right : 0

 

Basketball: Both female teams should be fine, the males ones are more of a question mark : 16-32

 

Beach Volleyball: The male team was close last time. No chance for the other teams : 0-2

 

Boxing: I can see us having less boxers in Tokyo than medals in Rio (6)  : 4-10

 

Canoeing - Slalom: The two males boat, possibly only one female. : 3-4

Canoeing - Sprint: No idea : 4-10

Cycling - BMX: Definitly three boys, one or two girls : 4-5

Cycling - Mountain Bike: Three male riders seem almost garanted. 3 women are not impossible either : 5-6

 

Cycling - Road: 9 riders (6 males, 3 women) sound like a lock : 9

Cycling - Track: Possible a full team if we manage to find someone to go with Mathilde Gros in team sprint : 13-15

 

Diving: Probably, the same three we had in Rio (Auffret, Rossino, Rosset), which apparently are the only three divers we have in the country : 3

Equestrian: Looking at the current dressage ranking, I wonder how we manage to qualifie in Rio... Eventing and jumping teams hould be ok. :6-7

Fencing: As it stands, we 'd qualifie every teams, but it's dam close for some of them. We could easely miss a couple of teams: 12-18

Field Hockey: The boys are not quite up there, but it's getting closer, (the french federation is looking for Huguenots daughters in the Netherlands to have somhow a competitive team in 24, so nothing to see here). Still, most likely : 0

 

Football: With the world cup at home, I fail to see the women team not qualifying. The male team has its chances as always : 18-36

Golf: Probably four, even if we suck at golf : 4

Gymnastics - Artistic: I'm giving myself two years to understand the qualification process : 10-14

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 1

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Probably one girl, and that's it : 1

Handball: I'd be suprised if not both team make it tbh : 28

Judo: Possibly, we could miss a couple of male categories : 12-14

Karate: Could go either way really : 2-6

Modern Pentathlon: Hard to see past a full team here : 4

Rowing: 10-16

Rugby Sevens: Definitly the female team. The male team has been shit this yearn but by 2020, we should have enough to prevail against the likes of Spain : 24

 

Sailing: Probably a full team also : 10

Shooting: Possibly more than ever before : 12-18 

 

Skateboarding: Guessing here really : 1-2

Sport Climbing: We don't really know who will prevail with this new combined event : 2-4

Surfing: As it stands, we would qualifie 4 athletes. The second female one is a bit of question mark. So : 3-4

Swimming: Probably, quite lower that what we are used to : 20-30

Table Tennis: The male team + possibly one girl : 3-4

Taekwondo: The federation seems to be in disaray at the moment... : 0-2

Tennis: 8-12

Triathlon: At this point, a full team sounds likely : 6

Volleyball If it was not for the FIVB, the qualification of the male team would not even be a question mark. Still, the should be able to do it: 12

 

Water Polo: The possibility is here for the male team (like in Rio), but it's really a slim one. I'm guessing that the women one have some chances too: 0-11

Weightlifting: 4-6

Wrestling: Well, at least, one (Larroque), then, it's anyboddy guess : 1-4

Total: 322 - 463 (330 in London, 395 in Rio)

Edited July 30, 2018 by De_Gambassi

[rafalgorka 1,517]

Poland
 

 

Archery: 1 man, 1 women - 2

Artistic Swimming:

Athletics: approx. 60 but I don't really understand this new qualification system - where can I find the explanation of it?

Badminton: one player in each singles competition and two doubles - 6

Baseball: 0

Basketball: 0 - which is very very sad, I would love to see men's team in the olympics, they played in 1980 last time

Beach Volleyball: 2 men pairs, 1 female - 6

Boxing: 1 woman, 1 man - 2

Canoeing - Slalom: K1 M, C1 M, K1 W - 3

Canoeing - Sprint: a lot of them - 10 at least

Cycling - BMX: 0

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 2 women, 1 man - 3

Cycling - Road: 4 men, 3 women - 7

Cycling - Track: app. 8

Diving: 1 men

Equestrian: 1 place in eventing

Fencing: one team, and few individuals - 6

Field Hockey: 0

Football: 0

Golf: 0

Gymnastics - Artistic: 1 female

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 1 female

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

Handball: 0 - which is very sad because men's team was in the semis in Rio

Judo: 3 men, 3 women - 6

Karate: 3

Modern Pentathlon: 2 female, 1 man - 3

Rowing: a lot - sth like 20

Rugby Sevens: 0

Sailing: 10

Shooting: 5

Skateboarding: 0

Softball: 0

Sport Climbing: 1 - one man

Surfing: 0

Swimming: 12-18, it all depends how many relays we can qualify

Table Tennis: both teams can make it - 6

Taekwondo: 1 male, 1 female - 2

Tennis: Agnieszka Radwańska is slowly finishing her career, I'm not even sure she's gonna play in Tokyo, but if she does - then 1 more woman in singles, 1 man in singles, and some doubles players - all together sth like 7

Triathlon: 1 man, 1 female - 2

Volleyball: men team - 12

Water Polo: 0

Weightlifting: 3 men, 3 female - 6 - or 0 because we don't make it due to doping cases , and to be honest - I don't really care

Wrestling: 3 women, 3 freestyle men, 3 greco-roman - 9

 

All together: 227 - which is a bit less than I wrote here before (250) - but maybe some other team sports can make it? Women's volleyball and handball especially - 227 + 24 = 251. But it's wishful thinking I'm afraid

[CCB 565]

8 hours ago, EselTheDonkey said:

 

Teams in Equestrian will only consist of three athletes in Tokyo. It's highly annoying, especially in Eventing.

Really? You're joking right?

 

Not even a substitute as fourth rider?

[dcro 10,210]

5 minutes ago, CCB said:

Really? You're joking right?

 

Not even a substitute as fourth rider?

 

There will be active reserves in all disciplines, which could be put forward at any point of the competitions if necessary.

Edited July 29, 2018 by dcro

[Cobi 981]

Archery: 2-6 (Probably women's team and 1 men, but both teams have options)

Artistic Swimming: 8

Athletics: 40-50

Badminton: 2 (Carolina Marín and Pablo Abián in singles. We don't have pairs)

Baseball: 0

Basketball: 27 (both 5x5 teams and 3x3 women)

Beach Volleyball: 4-6 (Herrera/Gavira and Lili/Elsa for sure and maybe a 2nd women pair)

Boxing: 2-3 men and no women

Canoeing - Slalom: 3-4

Canoeing - Sprint: Around 10

Cycling - BMX: 0-1 (I know we have a girl in freestyle who has competed in World Cup, but it seems difficult to qualify)

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 2-3 (2 men and maybe 1 woman)

Cycling - Road: 7 (5 men and 2 women)

Cycling - Track: 4-5

Diving: 1-2

Equestrian: 5-7 (Dressage team is almost sure and if we are lucky we can qualify our jumping team and Albert Hermoso in eventing)

Fencing: 2-5 (Carlos Llavador and Yulen Pereira should be in and our women's sabre team will try to qualify, but I think we will not beat Hungary)

Field Hockey: 32

Football: 20 (Men's team is good enough to qualify and women's team will depend on the draw for World Cup)

Golf: 4 for sure

Gymnastics - Artistic: 2-3 (2 men and 1 woman)

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 6 (group + 1 individual)

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

Handball: 28 (both teams)

Judo: 5-7

Karate: 2-4 (both Katas and maybe 1-2 spots in Kumite)

Modern Pentathlon: 0

Rowing: 6 (M2-, M2x and W2-)

Rugby Sevens: 0-12 (both teams can do it, especially women, but it's very dificult so I would be happy with one)

Sailing: 14 (all but Finn)

Shooting: 5-8

Skateboarding: 2-3

Softball: 0 

Sport Climbing: 0-1

Surfing: 1-3

Swimming: 20-25

Table Tennis: 2-4 (Álvaro Robles and Galia Dvorak in singles and maybe women's team, but they are too young yet)

Taekwondo: 3-4

Tennis: 8-10

Triathlon: 5 (3 men and 2 women if we qualify our relay team)

Volleyball 0

Water Polo: 26

Weightlifting: 4-6 (we qualified 4 for Rio, so I think we will perform slightly better)

Wrestling: 0-1 (Nowadays, Taimuraz Friev is the only one with a good level)

Total Sports: 36-38

Optimistic Total Athletes: 390

Realistic Total Athletes: 315/325

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 270

[AlFHg 330]

It looks like I've really been too much optimistic  

[Bearas 521]

Archery: 0, can't expect anything with corrupted archery federation.

Artistic Swimming: 0, not a very competitive sport here and 99% of practicing girls comes from the same pool/team.

Athletics: Very hard to predict. Probably something around 20 athletes.

Badminton: We do have some good young talent, but I doubt they going to make it - 0

Baseball: Not a chance to compete with NED or ITA

Basketball: Really hope for men's team in Tokyo. If FIBA do not make any more stupid decision by banning players from enetiring tournaments based on the leagues they participate in. 

Beach Volleyball: Some good young talents, but they likely not going to make it.

Boxing: Should grab a few quatas (at least one). A bit harder to predict as our ladies are quite weak.

Canoeing - Slalom: 0. Nobody cares about it.

Canoeing - Sprint: They removed all events we ever won medals in.... So now we hope to qualify MC1-1000, MK1-200, MK2-1000, MK4-500.

Cycling - BMX: Lithuania not going to finish high enough in the rankings, very small chance in individual qualifying tournament.

Cycling - Mountain Bike: Some hope with Katažina Sosna. She would be the first ever LTU MTB rider.

Cycling - Road: We are at our lowest level ever.... Best chance - 2 men and 1 lady.

Cycling - Track: Hope to perform in women's sprint/keirin, women's omnium and men's keirin

Diving: 0, level is not quite there and our divers will stay at the bottom during the qualifiation.

Equestrian: 0, just not at the same level as the rest.

Fencing: 0, could compete with canoeing slalom for most unpopular sport in the country.

Field Hockey: 0

Football: 0

Golf: 0, popular activity, but not a popular sport....

Gymnastics - Artistic: 1 men for sure +1 lady if we are lucky

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

Handball: 0

Judo: 3 if we are lucky, but most likely to have one girl in +78kg category.

Karate: 0

Modern Pentathlon: 0-4, everybody can make it. Hopefully all 4 spots.

Rowing: they are trying new groupings so we will see which categories they will choose to compete in. I think something between 2-10 rowers.

Rugby Sevens: 0

Sailing: 1 in Laser Radial for sure + 2 more (men's laser and men's RS:X) if lucky

Shooting: 1 quata as always. I bet this time it might be young lady in Skeet competition.

Skateboarding: 0, don't even have federation for it.

Softball: 0

Sport Climbing: 0

Surfing: Hahahahahhahahaha.....

Swimming: Hopefully at least 4. If everything is going to go well - then up to 10.

Table Tennis: 0.

Taekwondo: 0.

Tennis: 1 if Berankis makes it again

Triathlon: 0

Volleyball: 0

Water Polo: 0

Weightlifting: 1 if we have anyone without the doping

Wrestling: 0-4