So, the second rehearsals were today for almost everyone in the first 1/2. I reckon i'd give my humble opinion on the staging and qualifiers at this point. Things are really closer and there seem to be more borderline qualifiers than usual, because of the weak year. Also it doesn't help that some countries with popular studio songs messed up the staging (Belgium, Azerbaijan) , while others made the opposite (Finland, Latvia, Moldova). The juries would play a big factor like always (yawn), but i'm not counting there part as much in my ranking.
Certain qualifiers:
Sweden - A perfect Sweden ESC 1.0 song, slick, polished, probably is going to win this 1/2, even from the opening position;
Finland - Great staging and in an awesome position in the running order. After the trainwrecks and unmemorable songs before it, it will easily stand out;
Greece - An upbeat song with a popular artist (it seems?) around many ballads. A classic Greece entry, like we have seen in the past, and because of that it would get a lot of voted, even if the juries vote it lower. Can't see Greece failing for a second year in-a-row;
Poland - Great song & performance, with a nice staging. Certanly better than the other ballads. Plus big diaspora, it will go through.
Borderline qualifiers (from most to least likely):
Azerbaijan - A weird staging, that isn't coming so good on TV for now. Don't know if it will resonate so good with the audience, as the song should have prior to the contest. It was one of the most liked from a studio version.
Portugal - This song, i don't know what to say about it. It is so unique and nothing we see hardly at all. The comments are in the two opposites all the time when it comes to it. If it resonates with the audience it could do miracles (certanly the bookies think this way), but it could just as much be ignored and not understanded. The juries would likely push it through, because it will be in their top almost certanly.
Moldova - Memorable and fun staging, for a fun song, surrounded by ballads. It will stand-out for the good and i hope it qualifies, no matter how much the juries dish on it. The final needs epic Sax guy.
Australia - This shouldn't qualify, because it is the blandness of the blandness stuff. I hope the novelty of voting for Australia goes away and it being in the beginning tips things for it to stay in the 1/2. Again juries would be decider probably, because EBU need big country Australia in the final;
Albania - I wouldn't actually mind if this qualified. The song has grown on me and the staging looks intersting. I hope it stand-outs coming after Georgia and Australia and before Belgium and Montenegro. Definately deserves more to qualify than Australia.
Likely no chance:
Belgium - How? Why? Has everyone been high when coming up with the staging. Everything is a trainwreck. It will be a miracle if this qualifies and only if enough people liked the studio version and closed their eyes on the live performance.
Cyprus - So bland and unmemorable, plus it is almost a copycat staging like Belgium 2015, with a worse song. It will get lost.
Iceland - If they didn't qualify last year, with a far more better song, then this has no chance..
Georgia - Good singer, but the song is boring, the staging is boring, being second in the order is a curse and it will be scraping for viewer votes. Even if the juries actually throw a few votes towards Georgia it would hardly be enough.
Montenegro - No, just no.. Though i'd give it that i at least smile for the lolz
Czechia - Even with Montenegro in here, there is another song heading for that last place. It's just 3 dull and empty minutes. I'm sorry for the singer, because she is not bad and tries her best, but everything is bad, everything...
The last three countries that didn't rehearse today and didn't watch the TV version of their performance.
Armenia - Seems like a popular song, with just enough staging to go through. Seems there is enthusiasm for it and being in the end of the order will definately help it. Likely qualifier.
Latvia - For me, a very fun song, with a memorable staging, that will help it a lot in this sea of blandness. Closing the 1/2 is a huge advantage, like with Armenia. Likely qualifier.
Slovenia - Maybe the song that was least expected from this year, but the first rehearsal seemed good. Omar is a great singer, unlike many others and this could be a surpise if things go it's way. Again being in the end, could give it a nice chance. Borderline.