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This is similar to the US. Copa America did not even register on most American's radars. The US Olympic trials were very successful this year so I have to imagine things are more hyped than for Tokyo. Basketball is getting a lot of press, it always does, but Lebron and Curry on the same team is the story right now. The Sprinting netflix doc also came out which put the spotlight on Lyles and Richardson. Breakdancing is also getting some hype, people are proud that the dance style from the Bronx is now an Olympic sport. Skateboarding, surfing, climbing are all getting highlighted as well.

pigeon[hide] General (15) 1 - Pacific Island nations in Oceania (including New Zealand, not Australia) will win more medals than Caribbean nations. 2 2 - At least six south american nations will medal. 10 3 - At least two NOCs will win their first olympic medal. 11 4 - Mexico will finish higher than Colombia in the medal table. 5 - At least two of these NOCs (which haven't won a medal since Sydney 2000 or before) will medal again in Paris 2024: Barbados, Costa Rica, Guyana, Haiti, Iraq, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Mozambique, Pakistan, Peru, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tanzania, Tonga, Uruguay, US Virgin Islands, Zambia. 6 - Will Italy and the Netherlands win more total gold medals than France. 6 7 - Will Ethiopia finish in the top 20 of the medal count? (Tie for 20th =Yes). 10 8 - At least one individual podium from Tokyo 2020 will be repeated (same people in the same positions). 9 - At least one individual medallist from Beijing 2008 will win an individual medal. 10 - Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) will win a combined total of 10 or more medals. 7 11 - Denmark will end with 5 (all-time best) or more Gold medals. 7 12 - Bosnia&Herzegovina or Albania will win their first Olympic medal. 4 13 - Hong Kong will finish above Chinese Taipei on the Medal Table. 6 14 - Only Indonesia and Thailand, two countries from Southeast Asia that will win gold medal. 15 - Top three Asian nations at the overall medal table placement: China, Japan, South Korea. 12 Aquatics - Diving (2) 16 - North Korea will win at least one medal. 17 - The four chinese synchronized teams will win with at least 172 points in total to their opponents in second places in the four synchronized events. For comparison the chinese synchronized teams have won with 173,58 points (WCH 2023) and 170,86 points (WCH 2024). Aquatics - Swimming (8) 18 - Australia will win more gold medals than the USA. 19 - Summer McIntosh will win four or more medals. 20 - The winner of the women's 100m Backstroke will go under 57 seconds. 21 - Leon Marchand will win 2 or more gold medals. 11 22 - One of Caeleb Dressel, Kristof Milak or Adam Peaty will win an individual gold medal. 9 23 - An athlete will make a false start during one of the finals sessions. 7 24 - Australia will win a medal in all 7 relays. 8 25 - There will be a podium consisting of only junior swimmers (all born in 2006 or younger). 5 Aquatics - Synchronized Swimming (1) 26 - At least one NOC will win its first Olympic medal. Aquatics - Water Polo (2) 27 - The USA women's team will lose a match. 28 - Only one nation will reach the semifinals in both competitions. 8 Archery (2) 29 - At least one non-Asian country will win a gold medal in any event. 30 - South Korea will only win one gold medal. 12 Athletics (10) 31 - Men’s 100m- These three USA sprinters (N.Lyles/K.Bednarek/F.Kerley) will reach the final . 1 32 - Italy will win at least 5 medals. 5 33 - Canada will win both hammer throw events. 34 - Norway will be in the top 5 of medal table. 10 35 - Only one athlete will defend his/her Tokyo gold medal (relays excluded). 11 36 - Eritrea will win at least one medal. 37 - Ukraine will win more than one medal in women's high jump. 38 - At least one of the medal winners in any relay will later be disqualified due to a wrong exchange or crossing the line to another lane. 39 - France will win more gold medals than Great Britain . 11 40 - Finland will win more medals than Sweden. 12 Badminton (2) 41 - Three seeded players will be eliminated in the group stage. 6 42 - Gregoria Tunjung will win a medal. Basketball (2) 43 - Men's Tournament - United States will lose the gold medal match. 9 44 - Women's Tournament - Two different continents will be represented in the gold medal match. 12 Basketball 3x3 (2) 45 - Women's Tournament - The podium will consist of NOCs from three different continents. 4 46 - Men's Tournament - There will be one NOC who will win all its matches in the group stage. Boxing (3) 47 - Ireland will be the NOC who will win most medals among European NOCs. 6 48 - Cuba will fail to win any medal. 9 49 - Australia will win more than 1 medal. Breakdance (2) 50 - B-Girls event- D. Bancevic (LTU) (B-Girl Nicka) or A. Fukushima (JPN) (B-Girl Ayumi) will win the gold medal. 4 51 - B-Boys event- The final matchup will be P. Kim (CAN) (B-Boy Phil Wizard) vs. V. Montalvo (USA) (B-Boy Victor). Canoeing - Slalom (2) 52 - At least 2 non-European NOCs will win a medal. 10 53 - In either women's W K1 & W C1, at least one winner of the qualification will fail to advance to the final from semifinal. 2 Canoeing - Sprint (2) 54 - In at least one of the K1-events for women or men, a NOC will win gold and silver. 7 55 - Germany will top the medal table. 3 Cycling - BMX (2) 56 - France will have all three male riders in the BMX racing Olympic final. 57 - United States will win 1 medal or less in the BMX freestyle events. Cycling - Mountain Bike (2) 58 - Switzerland will win at least one gold and silver medal. 59 - A non-European NOC will win at least one medal. Cycling - Road (2) 60 - Men's - The Benelux-countries (Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands) will win at least 3 medals. 61 - Women's - There will be 3 different NOCs on the podium in the women's road race. 7 Cycling - Track (3) 62 - Harrie Lavreysen will not lose a single race/heat (including qualification and knockout) in the individual sprint. 3 63 - France will not win gold medal. 64 - European NOCs will win at least 9 out of the 12 medals in the sprint events for both men and women, individual and team. Equestrian (2) 65 - At least two out of the three defending Olympic gold medallist in the three team events from Tokyo 2020 will defend their gold medals. 66 - The medalists in the individual dressage event will also win a medal in the team dressage event. Fencing (3) 67 - Team events - At least one of the African NOC's will win its quarterfinal match and advance to a semifinal. 68- Individual events - At least 2 out of the 6 individual 2023 world champions will win gold. 69 - Either France, Hungary, Italy or fencers from these NOCs will be presented at every podium. 6 Field Hockey (2) 70 - The top scorer of the women's competition will be a dutch player. 10 71 - Great Britain will win a medal (men's or women's). 6 Football (2) 72 - Spain will at least win either the women's or men's gold medal. 12 73 - At least one player born 2000 or before will receive a red card in the men's tournament. 5 Golf (1) 74 - USA will not win a medal in either women's or men's event. 12 Gymnastics - Artistic (3) 75 - At least two NOCs will their first Olympic medal. 76 - Men's - Daiki Hashimoto will be the only male gymnasts to defend an olympic title in one of the individual events. 4 77 - Women's - Qiu Qiyuan will win at least two medals in the apparatus events. 9 Gymnastics - Rhythmic (1) 78 - Bulgaria will defend their Olympic title in the team event. Gymnastics - Trampoline (1) 79 - China will win gold in both men's and women's event. 1 Handball (2) 80 - Men's - France will defend its Olympic gold from Tokyo 2020. 81 - Women's - France will not make the final. 11 Judo (3) 82 - At least one athlete will win gold by winning all fights by Ippon. 83 - France will win more gold medals than Japan. 2 84 - Japan will win the team event. 4 Modern Pentathlon (2) 85 - Egypt will fail to win any medals in both men's and women's events. 9 86 - At least one of the two defending Olympic gold medallists (Joe Choong and Kate French) will defend their gold medal. Rowing (2) 87 - Romania will win at least 5 medals. 88 - Netherlands will top the medal table. Rugby Sevens (2) 89 - The women's final will feature Australia and New Zealand. 10 90 - At least one medal match will be decided in extra-time. Sailing (3) 91 - France, Netherlands and Italy will be the top 3 NOCs in the medal table. 10 92 - Maximilian Maeder will win Singapore's first Olympic medal in Sailing. 2 93 - Great Britain will not win any medals in men's events. Shooting (3) 94 - China will win Gold in 50% or more (7+ Gold) of the total events. 11 95 - India will win at least 3 medals. 96 - At least one NOC will win more than one medal in a single mixed team event. 1 Skateboard (2) 97 - Teenagers (age 19 or younger) will win every gold medal in the skateboarding events. 98 - There will not be a medalists from the Tokyo 2020-podiums in skateboarding street events that will be at the podiums in Paris 2024. 5 Sport Climbing (2) 99 - The women’s lead semi final will have more tops than the final. 100 - Men's speed climbing podium will consist of only Asian NOCs. 8 Surfing (2) 101 - A European NOC will win at least one medal. 102 - At least one medallist will have been through Round 2. 3 Table Tennis (2) 103 - Wang/Sun (CHN) will lose maximum one set during the mixed double tournament. 5 104 - France will be only non-Asian NOC to win a medal. Taekwondo (2) 105 - The NOC to win most medals will at maximum win 3 medals in total. 106 - There will not be a NOC who will win two or more gold medals. 4 Tennis (2) 107 - At least one player (man or woman) that has never advanced further than the round of 16 at the French Open singles tournament will win a singles medal in Paris 2024. 108 - An unseeded team will make final in women's doubles event. Triathlon (2) 109 - Mixed Relay event - The difference between the 1st-placed and 2nd-placed NOCs will be less than 12 seconds. 8 110 - France will win an individual medal in either men's or women's event. 11 Volleyball - Indoor (2) 111 - Men's - Poland will win at least a silver medal. 1 112 - A team from the Asian Volleyball Confederation will win a medal (men's or women's). 10 Volleyball - Beach (2) 113 - Women’s event- A North American duo (USA/CAN) will win the gold medal. 114 - Men’s event- Bryl/Losiak (POL) will advance further in the tournament than Diaz/Alayo (CUB)? (If both are eliminated at the same stage e.g. Round of 16, then “No” will count). Weightlifting (2) 115 - United States will be placed 2nd in the medal table. 116 - At least two world records will be broken (snatch, clean and jerk or overall). 5 Wrestling (4) 117 - Kyrgyzstan will win at least one gold medal (first Olympic gold in their history). 7 118 - Freestyle - Albania will win a medal. 119 - Greco-Roman - At least 4 out 6 finals will be decided within a one point difference (Example: 2-1, 3-2... or 1-1, 2-2..etc.) . 120 - Women's - Japan will win medals in at least 5 classes. [/hide]

Individual Events Table Points Athlete Nation Event Won/Lost 30 Janja Garnbret Women's Lead/Boulder Won 29 Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone Women's 400m Hurdles Won 28 Armand Duplantis Men's Pole Vault Won 27 Katie Ledecky Women's 1500m Free Won 26 Summer Mcintosh Women's 400 IM Won 25 Ryan Crouser Men's Shot Put Won 24 Sha'Carri Richardson Women's 100m Lost 23 Simone Biles Women's Artistic Gymnastics All-Around Won 22 Qin Haiyang Men's 200m Breaststroke Lost 21 Daiki Hashimoto Men's Artistic Gymnastics Indiviudal l All-Around Lost 20 Grant Holloway Men's 110m Hurdles Won 19 Kaylee McKeown Women's 100m Backstroke Won 18 Robert Finke Men's 1500m Free Won 17 Hannah Roberts Women's BMX Freestyle Lost 16 Remco Evenepoel Men's Road Cycling Time Trial Won 15 Darja Varfolomeev Women's Rhythmic Gymnastics Individual Won 14 Mohanad Shaban Men's Modern Pentathlon Lost 13 Tyler Wright Women's Surfing Lost 12 Ginwoo Onodera Men's Skateboarding Street Lost 11 Rai Benjamin Men's 400m Hurdles Won 10 Noah Lyles Men's 200m Lost 9 Josh Kerr Men's 1500m Lost 8 Rhys McClenaghan Men's Pommel Horse Won 7 Carson Foster Men's 400 IM Lost 6 Victor Breaking B-Boys Lost 5 Kevin Mayer Decathlon Lost 4 Fan Zhendong Men's Table Tennis Won 3 Mutaz Essa Barshim Men's High Jump Lost 2 Tom Pidcock Men's Mountain Biking Won 1 Tomoa Narasaki Men's Lead/Boulder Lost Duo Events Table Points Athlete Nation Event Won/Lost 30 CHN Women's Synchronized 10m Women's Synchronized 10m Platform Won 27 CHN Women's Artistic Swimming Duets Women's Artistic Swimming Duets Won 24 JPN Mixed Two-Person Dinghy - 470 Mixed Two-Person Dinghy - 470 Lost 21 Chen Qingchen - Jia Yifan Women's Badminton Doubles Won 18 Sara Hughes - Kelly Cheng Women's Beach Volleyball Lost 15 USA Women's Madison Women's Madison Lost 12 NED Men's Skiff - 49er Men's 49er Lost 9 Satwiksairaj Rankireddy - Chirag Shetty Men's Badminton Doubles Lost 6 Carlos Alcaraz - Rafael Nadal Men's Tennis Doubles Lost 3 David Åhman – Jonatan Hellvig Men's Beach Volleyball Won Team Events Table Points Athlete Nation Event Won/Lost 30 USA Women's Basketball Women's 5x5 Basketball Won 28 USA Women's Water Polo Women's Water Polo Lost 26 AUS Women's 4x200m Free Relay Women's 4x200m Free Relay Won 24 USA Women's 3x3 Basketball Women's 3x3 Basketball Lost 22 CHN Women's Table Tennis Women's Table Tennis Teams Won 20 KOR Women's Archery Team Women's Archery Team Won 18 USA Women's 4x100 Medley Relay Women's 4x100 Medley Relay Won 16 FRA Men's Handball Men's Handball Lost 14 FRA Men's Football Men's Football Lost 12 GBR Triathlon Mixed Relay Triathlon Lost 10 USA Women's Volleyball Women's Volleyball Lost 8 NED Women's Field Hockey Women's Field Hockey Won 6 CHN Men's Artistic Gymnastics Men's Artistic Gymnastics Team Lost 4 NZL Women's K-4 500 m Women's K4 500m Won 2 FRA Men's Epee Men's Team Epee Lost

I gotta say it. The only kilometer I know about is the one these two can run one tenth of faster than anyone else on earth. I’m not much of a patriot, slept in on the July 4 celebrations yesterday, but the moment one of these American heros tops that Parisian podium I will briefly be the most insufferable person on this website in celebration. That’s a fact, that’s a promise. They both represent the dreams of this nation and represent the best in the American spirit.

1. First Olympics was Beijing 2008. I have memories of my parents watching Torino and very well could have watched some myself but I really caught the Olympic bug at Beijing, 2. I think I have to go with Vancouver for the best, London a close second, I’m sure Paris will eclipse both. Least liked is Sochi it’s the least notable games and what I do have to note about it isn’t all that good.

I’ve already gone through the schedule and prioritized events because time will be more tight and tv less accessible when I’m in France for the events I’m not seeing in person. Probably will have to focus on highlights and replays. Otherwise being in EST should make most of the medal events easy to watch in the first half of the games. Excited to watch: swimming, athletics, rugby, skateboarding, sport climbing of course, and I’m optimistic about breaking and might walk to Concorde to see the vibes. Specific events as well: triathlon relay, cycling time trials, mountain biking, equestrian eventing, I like a spread out event with some good b-roll opportunities. Will tune out wrestling, tennis, golf, shooting, boxing.

Overall Pacific Island nations in Oceania (including New Zealand, not Australia) will win more medals than Caribbean nations. Ceremonies The opening ceremony will be more than 4 hours in total length. The US team will require more than one boat for the opening ceremony. For the Los Angeles segment of the closing ceremony, there will be a shot featuring Griffith Observatory. Marathon Swimming Both of the marathon swims will be held at the planned Siene venue. Sport Climbing Alberto Gines-Lopez (Tokyo gold medalist) will get to the top 8 final in boulder and lead combined. A speed climbing world record will be broken. The women’s lead semi final will have more tops than the final. Skateboarding Teenagers will win every gold medal in skateboarding. There will be no repeat medalists in skateboarding street events. Breaking The gold medalist b-boy and b-girl will feature as entertainment at the closing ceremony. A competitor will win all 3 rounds of a duel at the quarterfinals or beyond of the knockout bracket.

Here’s the climbing venue. It’s a much larger seating scale then the other venue maps have shown.

For those who have Paris tickets the Olympic app (not the ticket or navigation app) just added some information on each event including venue maps. This is the first I’m seeing of specific layouts for some events. They also allow you to add the free events to your itinerary which is helpful for organization. Here’s the pentathlon venue. The pool is to the south of the jumping course.

I don’t think the format for speed climbing makes any athlete a lock. Any top 10 speed climber could win on the day. Lead/Boulder however, Janja Garnbret is as safe as you can get for a gold medal.

Shocking stuff, 3 gymnasts got injured within the week. All 3 were team contenders with chances for an all-around medal (Skye Blakely, Shilese Jones, Kayla DiCello) USA are still favorites but it's a massive compilation.

In a team of world record holders, multiple world championships, a world leading sprint team, she is the peak. She looked like she was barely pushing but was miles ahead of the field and the world.

1. Seeing the road race, football (Marseille), Sport Climbing, Rhythmic Gymnastics, and Modern Pentathlon. First half of the games I’ll be like everyone else on my TV, laptop, and phone. 2. I’ll go with and because they’re the likely semi finalists in women’s football I’d support (USA will almost certainly be at the Lyon semifinal)

Comes out of Budapest with the final two quotas needed to be the only country to send the max 8 climbers to Paris. Zach Hammer got 7th in speed climbing at both Shanghai and Budapest, getting him a safe qualification seat considering the 3 Indonesian climbers fighting for one quota (shoutout to former world record holder Veddriq Leonardo for getting that btw) In Boulder/Lead Brooke Raboutou proves herself as a medal contender after posting a 100 out of 100 is OQS points. Winning both legs of the competition and ending her years long qualifying struggles after twice being a the runner up for qualification at the world championships and then Pan American games.

Yuto Horigome winning outright in Budapest to just out qualify the next best Japanese skater, someone ranked higher then Yuto is exactly the momentum he needs to become a superstar with a good performance in Paris. I had fully discounted him after Shanghai. I posted that the success of the inspired young Japanese generation could push him out of defending his gold. And yet in one comp he went from ranked 6th in Japan to 3rd in world (and in Japan.) Yet, the winner of qualifying is still a 14 year old, so maybe the new generation has already bested Yuto.

1. No complaints, it would be simply rude to have any regrets while beating the hosts in qualification. The only jeopardy was men’s football, but that was booked years ago. I’m personally sad to not see an American rhythmic gymnastics team, but that’s really not a big loss compared to the quota quantity elsewhere. 2. Add squash and cricket four years earlier. Cut boxing and wrestling, temporarily. Keep breaking and add parkour while you’re at it. 3. Climbing should have gone from 2 to 6 medals. Speed, Lead, and Boulder.

New renders of these updated venues The diving venue is hilarious with how much seating they have dedicated for it.

These all are sensible updates. Not surprised they released these plans while the swim trials are being held a Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. That was clearly a test run for swimming at SOFI and a very successful one. Diving will move to the original Olympic pool behind Memorial Coliseum. That venue will need a big renovation but it nicely clustered. The other big change is Gymnastics at Staples/Crypto.com/Downtown Center. Gymnastics is the premier arena sport at the games so only right for it to move to the premier indoor venue in LA. The new Clippers arena is looking like a great place to watch Basketball, taking a lot of cues from European and college sports arena design to make things much more intimate. Sepulveda switched from equestrian and shooting to skateboarding, archery, and BMX race and freestyle. Sucks that skateboardings not at Venice beach, but the Sepulveda Dam area has a good aesthetic for those kinds of sports between park and concrete. I wonder if they're allowed to put venues on or near the spillway? I don't know what Oklahoma City did to get softball and slalom, but if they want it they can have it. Assuming these changes remain the other events left without a venue are: Flag Football, Cricket, Lacrosse, Squash, Baseball, Sport Climbing, and Surfing. I would have thought one of Flag Football or Lacrosse would get into SOFI but looks like the stadium is fully booked for swimming. Rose Bowl now? Here's the letter with full details and budget estimations: https://la28.org/content/dam/latwentyeight/newsroom/news-stories/LA28VenuePlanAmendment.pdf

There’s something special in that stadium. Best ticket in the country. Two WRs and the meet is just halfway through. Cannot wait to see the US women’s medley team in action.

: 118 medals, 41 golds. I think Paris will have to be slightly better for medals then Tokyo, but not crazy. Really does come down to the swimming team. Track I’m thinking we could see +2-3 golds from Tokyo but I don’t have a sense of where the swimming team is now that the legends of the late 2010s are out of their prime. If the newer swimmers can keep the ball rolling then breaking 120 is very likely considering the new sports since Rio are all US medal chances. Climbing’s split events could lead to 4 medals with gold possible in men’s speed.

This is a great sign for USAs chances of getting into the super 8. If Ireland is the weakest team in the group you have to assume USA can beat them and 3 wins would be enough. Although who knows maybe Canada goes and beats India and Pakistan and wins that slot, this is group is already peak CONCACAC.

Got all 3 added North American team sports predicated but didn’t put Squash in the top 20. Just shows how poorly squash was treated in previous bids. Wish it was in Paris so we could put a glass squash box inside the Louvre’s glass pyramid.

The women's OQS Shanghai champion, Ayumi, is a 40 year old school teacher. There's a pattern here.

Skateboarding Men's Street could be a Japan sweep or a US sweep. Podium looking like it would be some mix of the top 3 from those teams. Maybe a sprinting sweep, 100m or 200m for US Men? Or am I still living in 2022 with that?