By my reckoning, we have 5 weeks of action left on the road before the Paris quotas are set so though it would be good to see where we are in the fight for Olympic Road Cycling quotas starting with the women.
Women's Tour
05-Sep - 11-Sep: Class 1 Stage Event: Tour Cycliste Feminin International De l'Ardeche
13-Sep: Class 1 1 Day Event: Grisette Grand Prix De Wallonie
15-Sep: Class 1 1 Day Event: Chrono Feminin De La Gatineau
16-Sep: Class 1 1 Day event: Tour De Gatineau
15-Sep - 17-Sep: World Tour Event: Tour De Romandie Feminin
15-Sep - 16-Sep: Class 2 Stage Event: AG Tour De La Semois
17-Sep: Class 2 1 Day Event: Grand Prix International D'Isbergues - Pas De Calais Feminin
30-Sep: 1 Day ProSeries: Giro Dell'Emilia Internazionale Donne Elite
3-Oct: Class 2 1 Day Event: GP Internacional De Ciclismo De Santa Catarina Femenina
3-Oct: Class 1 1 Day Event: Binche Chimay Binche Pour Dames
3-Oct: Class 1 1 Day Event: Tre Valli Varesine Women's Race
4-Oct: Class 2 1 Day event: GP Urubici De Ciclismo Femenina
5-Oct: Class 2 1 Day Event: Grand Tour De Ciclismo De SC Femenina
10-Oct - 11-Oct: Class 2 Stage Event: Tour of Wenzhou
12-Oct - 14-Oct: World Tour Event: Tour of Chongming Island
In addition to the 15 UCI events, there is also the European Road Cycling Championships at the end of September. This, and the fact that most of the events in October are taking place in Asia or South America mean it is unlikely that we will see a huge number of the top ranked European riders in action in October so we should know where the big team quotas for Paris are going to go before the qualification window officially closes.
At the moment, and are pretty much nailed on for full team of 4 riders.
That will leave and fighting it out for the remaining 2 spots to get full team of 4 riders. All the indications are that it could be very close.
Australia is currently sitting in 4th with 5,330 points. They were defending around 350 points from last year's SIMAC tour but their results this year were not as strong so their points total should drop to around 5,000 next week. They will need strong performances from Amanda Spratt, Brodie Chapman and Ruby Roseman-Gannon in next week's Tour De Romandie if they want to secure a top five finish.
Switzerland is currently in 5th place in the world ranking with 5,146 points. They weren't defending any points from SIMAC tour and are only defending around 200 points between now and the ranking cut off in October, so they are on track to finish ahead of Australia. With both Marlen Reusser and Elise Chabbey in the Tour De Romandie, at this stage I'd say it is highly likely that Switzerland should end up with full team of 4 riders for Paris.
France is in 6th place with 5,108 points but they have not defended their 400 points from last year's SIMAC tour. This loss will be off-set by points gained in the Tour De l'Ardeche but because it is a Class 1 event, the off-setting points will only be in the range of 40-50 so I expect their points total to drop down to around 4,700 next week. At the moment, I think the only ranking French rider to be scheduled to take part in the Tour De Romandie is Juliette Labous which is going to make it difficult for them to maintain their push for top five finish unless they have stellar European Champs.
Great Britain currently has 4,686 points and are in 7th place in the world rankings. They are defending a little over 300 points between now and the close of the ranking window including 170 points from the SIMAC tour. Both Anna Henderson and Pfeiffer Georgi had a strong SIMAC tour this year and between them picked up over 600 ranking points. That would take them to around 5117 points and should be enough to move them ahead of both France and possibly Australia. Next week Anna Shackley, Claire Steels and Lizzie Deignan are all scheduled to line up for the Tour De Romandie and will hope to accumulate some additional points to keep them in the hunt for top five. Ideally, they would like at least 1 rider in the top 10 or 2 within the top 20 but it is classy field so it may come down to hoping that Australia don't outscore them.
At the moment, I think that the battle for the fifth place in the rankings and the final full quota team is likely to be between Australia and Great Britain. In theory, Britain should have a slight edge by virtue of the fact that they have the continental championships to come - but for some reason (probably smugness) GB Cycling haven't taken part in the European champs for the last few years so they are potentially writing off perhaps 100 extra ranking points which seems like a mad decision. Without the extra European Champs points, it really could go either way - my calculations have GB ahead by a little over 100 points - but may come down to how well each team does in the Tour De Romandie.