I agree with pretty much all of you picks although if there is a reallocation of USA's 2022 WC quota, I don't think it would go to France - I think it would go to Argentina as you cannot use a reallocated quota to secure a second rider.
For the OQS, injuries aside, it's difficult to see a scenario where Martin, Nakamura, Jeanjean and Reilly don't finish inside the top 6 - they've certainly shown the consistency that is likely to be needed to achieve it. For USA, probably the favourite is likely to be Marcus Christopher. Like the other 4, he's been pretty consistent across the '23 world cup series.
Like you say, the 6th spot is likely to be a coin toss. I don't think it is going to go to another American. I know Nick Bruce took the silver in Glasgow, but that was a huge step up from his '23 world cup performances. My pick would probably Jose Torres Gil.
So my prediction at the moment is
Olympic Qualifier Series
Logan MARTIN
NAKAMURA Rimu
Anthony JEANJEAN
KIERAN REILLY
Marcus Christopher
Jose Torres Gil
2022 World Champs
2023 World Champs
- initially had thought likely that South Africa would reject continental quota but looking bat at 2020, I see they accepted continental quota for BMX racing so no I am not so sure.
Reallocated Host Quota