So for those who missed it, I simulated every quota for the upcoming olympics which you can find here. @Josh I believe you wanted a breakdown for the Canadian team and I will do that below.
Team Size: 300
# of Sports Qualified In: 36
Archery (2):
As is tradition, Canada is currently projected to qualify one athlete in each gender. Eric Peters and Stephanie Barrett are currently the highest ranked Canadian archers. Peters would qualify through the reallocated mixed team quotas and Barrett would qualify through the Pan-American games.
Athletics (51):
This is roughly around the number which Canada usually qualifies in athletics. Here's a breakdown of all the athletes below:
Men (24):
Mohammed Ahmed - 5000m, 10000m (Achieved Entry Standard in both events)
Marco Arop - 800m (Achieved Entry Standard)
Jerome Blake - 100m, Men's 200m (Achieved Entry Standard in both events)
Aaron Brown - 200m (Achieved Entry Standard in 200m, 10th in 100m World Rankings)
Andre de Grasse - 100m (29th in World Rankings)
Jean-Simon Desgagnes - 3000m Steeplechase (27th in World Rankings)
Evan Dunfee- 20km Race Walk (15th in World Rankings)
John Gay - 3000m Steeplechase (23rd in World Rankings)
Rowan Hamilton - Hammer Throw (23rd in World Rankings)
Trevor Hofbauer - Marathon (264th in World Rankings)
Adam Keenan - Hammer Throw (18th in World Rankings)
Pierce Lepage - Decathlon (Achieved Entry Standard)
Cameron Levins - Marathon (Achieved Entry Standard)
Rory Linkletter - Marathon (258th in World Rankings)
Django Lovett - High Jump (4th in World Rankings)
Brandon McBride - 800m (41st in World Rankings)
Malik Metivier - 400m Hurdles (42nd in World Rankings)
William Paulson - 1500m (41st in World Rankings)
Charles Philibert-Thiboutot - 1500m, 5000m (34th in 1500m World Rankings, 55th in 5000m World Rankings)
Cameron Proceviat - 1500m (49th in World Rankings)
Brendon Rodney - 200m (32nd in World Rankings)
Ryan Smeeton - 3000m Steeplechase (39th in World Rankings)
Benjamin Thorne - 20km Race Walk (50th in World Rankings)
Damian Warner - Decathlon (Achieved Entry Standard)
Women (24):
Khamica Bingham - 100m (58th in World Rankings)
Lindsey Butterworth - 800m (23rd in World Rankings)
Kyra Constantine - 400m (40th in World Rankings)
Gabriela Debues-Stafford - 1500m (Achieved Entry Standard)
Malindi Elmore - Marathon (Achieved Entry Standard)
Crystal Emmanuel - 100m (78th in World Rankings)
Lauren Gale - 200m, 400m (59th in 200m World Rankings, 55th in 400m World Rankings)
Elizabeth Gleadle - Javelin Throw (10th in World Rankings)
Michelle Harrison - 100m Hurdles (Achieved Entry Standard)
Natalia Hawthorn - 1500m (65th in World Rankings)
Madeleine Kelly - 800m (36th in World Rankings)
Ceili McCabe - 3000m Steeplechase (37th in World Rankings)
Natassha McDonald - 200m, 400m (64th in 200m World Rankings, 47th in 400m World Rankings)
Sarah Mitton - Shot Put (Achieved Entry Standard)
Christabel Nettey - Long Jump (16th in World Rankings)
Anicka Newell - Pole Vault (33rd in World Rankings)
Alysha Newman - Pole Vault (26th in World Rankings)
Camryn Rogers - Hammer Throw (Achieved Entry Standard)
Leslie Sexton - Marathon (169th in World Rankings)
Jazz Shukla - 800m (49th in World Rankings)
Lucia Stafford - 1500m (43rd in World Rankings)
Jillian Weir - Hammer Throw (10th in World Rankings)
Natasha Wodak - Marathon (Achieved Entry Standard)
Regan Yee- 3000m Steeplechase (35th in World Rankings)
+3 additional relay athletes for the Men's 4x100m, Women's 4x100m, and Women's 4x400m relays
Obviously, if healthy, De Grasse will also be entered in the 200m event. Ethan Katzberg just missed the hammer throw qualification by one spot in the world rankings.
Badminton (8):
Just like in Tokyo, the simulation has Canada qualifying one athlete in every discipline. Brian Yang and Michelle Li are currently ranked 21st and 14th in their respective singles events and both would qualify through the world rankings easily. In the doubles events, Canad benefits from being the best badminton nation in the Americas and they only earned their quotas in men's and mixed doubles because of the need to have a representative from the Americas. Simulated pairs are Adam Dong/Nyl Yakura in men's doubles, Rachel Honderich/Kristen Tsai in women's doubles, and Ty Lindeman/Josephine Wu in mixed doubles.
Basketball (12):
Women's team should have no problem qualifying. Unfortunately, the men do not qualify in the simulation because Argentina is still ranked as the 2nd best nation from the Americas. Personally, I'm optimistic that the men can get the job done this time. By biggest qualification wish is for them to qualify.
3x3 Basketball (4):
After a stellar season, the women's 3x3 basketball team is predicted to qualify for the games.
Breaking (1):
Phil Wizard is predicted to be the lone breakdancer qualifying for Canada. I used the world championships to simulate breakdancing but couldn't find a world ranking. I believe another Canadian just missed qualifying in the men's event.
Canoe Slalom (2):
Florence Maheu (Women's K1) and Lois Betteridge (Women's C1) qualify as the winners of the Americas continental qualification events. No men qualify this time.
Canoe Sprint (14):
Canada earns quotas in both K4 and C2 events for both genders meaning they'll have at least one boat in every event. I also have Canada earning extra quotas in Women's K1 and C1.
BMX (1):
1 athlete in the women's racing event. Molly Simpson is projected to earn the Americas quota.
Mountain Biking (2):
Through the nations rankings, Canada is projected to earn one quota in both the men's and women's events. Carter Woods and Emily Batty were the top ranked Canadians.
Road Cycling (3):
Through the nations rankings, Canada is projected to qualify 1 man and two women. Based on individual rankings, the quotas would go to Michael Woods, Alison Jackson, and Simone Boilard.
Track Cycling (15):
Through the nations rankings, Canada is projected to qualify full sprint teams for both men and women as well as 5 men's distance and 4 women's distance cyclists. This means that Canada would have entries in all the events.
Diving (6):
I used the most recent world championships for the diving simulation so the athletes are the same ones. Bryden Hattie in the men's 3m springboard, Nathan Zsombor-Murray and Rylan Wiens in the 10m events, Mia Vallee and Margo Erlam in the women's 3m events and Caeli McKay in the women's 10m platform.
Equestrian (9):
Full team in each discipline. Hopefully there won't be any disasters like last time.
Fencing (8):
First of all, there's a full team in both men's and women's foil. While not in the top 4, both teams qualify as the best remaining team in the Americas. There's also an additional two athletes that qualify through world rankings. Fares Arfa qualifies in the men's sabre and Gabriella Page qualifies in the women's sabre as the best ranked athletes from the Americas not in the team event.
Football (18):
Qualification for the women's team. Just got to beat Jamaica to get back to the Olympics.
Golf (4):
As is always the case, 2 per gender qualify through the world rankings. As of the time I did the simulation, the qualified golfers would be Corey Conners (34th), Mackenzie Hughes (46th), Brooke Henderson (7th), and Maude-Aimee Leblanc (146th).
Artistic Gymnastics (10):
Women's team already qualified. Based on the results of the 2022 World Championships, I have the men qualifying at the 2023 World Championships. Hopefully that happens.
Trampoline (2):
One in each gender (Jeremy Chartier and Sarah Milette)
Judo (7):
Mens -73kg - Arthur Margelidon (6th in World Rankings)
Men's -81kg - Francois Gauthier Drapeau (15th in World Rankings)
Men's -100kg - Shady Elnahas (6th in World Rankings)
Women's -52kg - Kelly Deguchi (Continental Quota)
Women's -57kg - Christa Deguchi (1st in World Rankings)
Women's -63kg - Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard (2nd in World Rankings)
Women's -78kg - Coralie Godbout (Team Event Quota)
Now I was informed today that I there was an olympic ranking that I missed where as I used the world rankings for these quotas . Not sure how big of a difference it makes. The only big difference I noticed was that Kyle Reyes was ranked ahead of Elnahas in the Men's -100kg event but either of them could take the quota and then there is of course, the battle in the women's -57kg class as well.
Rowing (28):
Quotas in men's single sculls, men's double sculls, men's eight, women's single sculls, women's pair, women's double sculls, women's eight and women's lightweight double sculls.
Rugby Sevens (12):
Still have the women's team qualifying despite their decline. However, they just sneak in earning a quota in the final qualification event. Men's team has no like as the United States didn't qualify through the rugby sevens series. The US will play a big factor into whether or not our teams qualify.
Sailing (7):
Quotas in men's dinghy (Fillah Karim), men's skiff (Arie Moffat), women's kite (Nataliya Leshko), women's dinghy (Sarah Douglas), and women's skiff (Georgia Lewin-Iafrance). The dinghy and women's skiff quotas were earned through the 2023 world championships while the other quotas were earned through the North American/Caribbean qualification event.
Skateboarding (7):
Now this was very interesting. The breakdown is one athlete in men's street and 3 athletes in each of the park events. There were not that many park competitions this year so the numbers could be more inflated because of that. I would expect the number to be less than 7.
Sport Climbing (1):
Alannah Yip finds herself returning to the games through the Americas qualifier in the women's combined boulder and lead event.
Surfing (2):
I used results from both the world surfing series and the world championships to make a simulation. Strong showings in the world championships from Sanoa Dempfle-Olin and Erin Brooks help them qualify in this simulation.
Swimming (23):
The following swimmers achieved an olympic qualifying time in 2022 (or open water quota):
Men:
Hau-Li Fan - 10km Open Water
Finlay Knox - 200m IM
Joshua Liendo - 50m Freestyle, 100m Freestyle, 100m Butterfly
Women:
Mary-Sophie Harvey - 200m IM
Maggie Mac Neil - 100m Butterfly
Kylie Masse - 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke
Summer McIntosh - 200m Freestyle, 400m Freestyle, 200m Backstroke, 200m Butterfly, 200m IM, 400m IM
Penny Oleksiak - 100m Freestyle
Taylor Ruck - 200m Freestyle
Katerine Savard - 100m Butterfly
Ingrid Wilm - 100m Backstroke
Kelsey Wog - 200m Breaststroke
Additional Relay Athletes:
Javier Acevedo, Sophie Angus, Jeremy Bagshaw, Stephen Calkins, James Dergousoff, Ruslan Gaziev, Ella Jansen, Yuri Kisil, Rachel Nicol, Rebecca Smith, Adam Wu
Summer probably isn't going to swim all 6 events that opens the door for another female swimmer in an individual event. Notably, there are some big name IM swimmers like Sydney Pickrem, Tessa Cieplucha or even Bailey Andison that aren't listed. That would probably be a combination of the tough entry standards + Summer taking up two of the four IM spots.
Table Tennis (2):
1 in each gender. Eugene Wang and Mo Zhang both qualify through the Americas events.
Taekwondo (3):
Men's +80kg - Marc-Andre Bergeron (Pan America Tournament)
Women's -57kg - Skylar Park (5th in Olympic Rankings)
Women's -67kg - Ashley Kraayeveld (Pan America Tournament)
Canada also just missed a quota in the Men's -58kg event.
Tennis (6):
Felix Auger-Alissime (6th) and Denis Shapovalov (18th) qualify in men's singles. Leylah Fernandez (40th), Bianca Andreescu (46th), and Rebecca Marino (63rd) qualify in women's singles. Gabriella Dabrowski joins the team for the doubles event.
Triathlon (4):
Charles Paquet (51st) and Jeremy Briand (70th) qualify through the men's olympic rankings. Emy Legault (20th) qualifies through the women's olympic rankings and Amelie Kretz receives a reallocated quota place. This would mean that Canada would be able to enter a mixed relay team.
Beach Volleyball (4):
No teams in men's again. For the women, the teams were Brandie/Bukovec and Pavan/Melissa when I was gathering the data but the teams have reformed now. Either way, I still think we'll qualify two women's teams since there's also the McNamara sisters who could also qualify.
Water Polo (12):
Women's team. Assuming the United States qualifies through the World Championships, Canada should be able to take the Americas quota.
Weightlifting (1):
With quotas reduced significantly, only Maude Charron is able to qualify in the women's 59kg event. Maybe Boady Santavy could qualify too.
*Very close to qualifying another men's quota in an event I can't remember
Women's 50kg Freestyle - Madison Parks (Americas Qualification Tournament)
Women's 62kg Freestyle - Ana Godinez Gonzalez (2023 World Championships)
Women's 68kg Freestyle - Linda Morais (2023 World Championships)
Women's 76kg Freestyle - Justina di Stasio (Americas Qualification Tournament)
Sports not qualified in:
Artistic Swimming:
This is a bit of a shocker but that's because we decided not to participate in many of the events at the world championships. I would expect Canada to at least qualify a duet since the US beat us at the team event during the World Championships.
Field Hockey:
Unfortunately, both teams were too low in the world rankings to qualify in this simulation. Maybe we'll qualify a team, maybe we won't. Could go either way.
Indoor Volleyball:
Men's team is on the decline. Women's team is on the rise but still not high enough in the world rankings. Could qualify, maybe not. Who knows.
Handball: No way. Modern Pentathlon: Probably not. Shooting: Maybe we'll qualify an athlete.
Going into the final set of matches of the main round let's look at the Olympics qualification implications.
While it is still possible for Brazil to reach the quarterfinals, it would require not only for them to defeat Iceland, but for Sweden to beat Portugal (good chance, even if they rest some players) and Cape Verde to defeat Hungary (less likely) and for Brazil to make up a 24 goal deficit against Portugal. Assuming that doesn't happen then Africa and Europe will be the top two continents and at their respective continental qualifiers two nations will advance to the final qualification tournament while for Asia and Pan America only one nation will advance.
Should Egypt (assuming they don't win the World Championship quota) or one of the European nations in the quarterfinals win their continent qualifier then the 9th place team will advance to the final Olympic qualifier. Should both scenarios happen then the 10th place will also join them. There are no 9th-12th ranking matches. The third place teams from each group will be ranked based on their group performance. Let's look at the chances for each nation to finish 9th or 10th.
Group I
Should the final matches go as expected, will most likely finish 10th. The nation has a great goal differential (+17) and faces Montenegro where they are favoured to win. Assuming they win, they will only have to watch Serbia to hope they don't win by 6 more goals than they did against Montenegro. While a draw for Slovenia won't completely kill their chances they will have to hope for a bunch of results to go their way. Slovenia could finish 9th, but would require Croatia to draw or lose their final match. While is able to finish third in their group it is mathematically impossible for them to finish 9th or 10th.
Group II
This is the most complicated group as four teams have an opportunity to finish third. has the least chance at finishing 10th as they would have to defeat Iceland by 22 goals AND then hope results in the other groups go their way. is in a similar boat in the event they finish third (though actually finishing third would take specific scenarios, they are much more likely to finish second or fourth) due to their horrible goal differential where they would either need to completely demolish Cape Verde or hope for draws in the other groups. has the goal differential (+7) to not have to rely on crazy results, but probably needs to hope Slovenia fails to defeat Montenegro. Netherlands defeating or drawing Serbia would be a huge help too. actually has a good goal differential (+15), but really needs a draw against Sweden so they can have 6 points, but would still require a bunch of results to go their way.
Group III
is the nation on the outside looking in. They technically have control over their destiny and have the added bonus of knowing how many goals they need to win by in order to finish in the top 10. The downside is the Netherlands likely won't go down that easily and Serbia probably needs to win by double digits to surpass Slovenia. Of course, Slovenia could just not win their match and things become a lot easier. not only needs to defeat Serbia, but probably requires Slovenia to not win as they likely won't make up that goal differential. Even if Slovenia chokes they need to hope Portugal doesn't end up in third and if it's Iceland they would have to outscore them against Serbia.
Group IV
could still finish third in the group, but that would require them to loss a 22 goal differential advantage over Croatia. In the event that does happen they are guaranteed to finish 9th. is most likely to finish 9th out of all the teams. They have arguable the easiest opponent among the teams discussed here and any victory guarantees them 9th or better. Even if they end with a draw, they are in a good position to finish in the top 10, but they would have to look at the other results and hope for no blowouts from Serbia or Iceland. In the event pulls off one of the largest upsets in this tournament, their goal differential is horrible where like Hungary they would need to hope for they other third place teams to fail to get 6 points (or have Hungary as one of the third place teams).
2023 Malaysian Open (Super 1000)- January 10-15, 2023 | Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia :
Viktor Axelsen is the men’s singles champion here in Malaysia, defeating Kodai Naraoka 2-0 (21-6, 21-15)
Congrats Viktor on yet another title, so well deserved
Eventing gets its first start for ranking points. The west side of the world has the majority of events this week with Wellington hosting its first jumping event of 12 between now and April. However, the biggest event will be in Abu Dhabi.
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