How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (2021 "A" version)

[Dragon 1,842]

5 hours ago, dcro said:

Funny how nobody was mentioning Valegro's age and mileage before Rio... This all seems like the usual dirty tactics (as presented by British Dressage) of trying to influence the judges through media.

Well, Valegro was 14 in Rio and not as good as he was in London. The top German horses are 14,16,17 while Freestyle is 12 and still improving...

Despite that, I think Germany will probably still win both golds this year

[heywoodu 15,124]

I like how, when adding everyone's predictions, you'd probably always end up with a hundred more total medals than are actually available in the Olympics  

 

Also fun when someone calls athlete A an outsider yet gives like 40% chance  

[Milan 26]

I would expect 5-7 medals for Croatia.

 

Sandra Perkovic and the Sinkovic brothers should win a medal. Very good chances I see for Tin Srbic in horizontal bar and Matea Jelic in Taekwondo.

 

And then there are some other chances like Kvesic in Karate, Gorsa, Glasnovic and Pejcic in Shooting, Mektic/Pavic in Tennis Doubles, Fantela brothers in 49er Sailing, Kanaet in Taekwondo, maybe Sara Kolak in Javelin throw and our Water polo men's team.

[Triplecast 156]

4 hours ago, phelps said:

those are not locked gold medals at all...

Yes, Maybe I am being a little too fast on those, but after the week-end she had, she is certainly in the top 2 internationally right now.  She's a second faster than anyone else in the 200 and 7 seconds faster than anyone else in the 400.  We'll see how Titmus comes back from her injury.  I'll take the 200 FS off my list for now.    

[dcro 10,210]

2 hours ago, Dragon said:

Well, Valegro was 14 in Rio and not as good as he was in London. The top German horses are 14,16,17 while Freestyle is 12 and still improving...

Despite that, I think Germany will probably still win both golds this year

Bella Rose has only three seasons behind her though (2014, 2018, 2019). There was an injury that took a long time to heal, and she was consistently improving upon her comeback, between 2018 and 2019.

 

By the time Rio arrived, Valegro had five consecutive championships seasons behind him (and was showing signs of mileage at Deodoro).

[dcro 10,210]

1 hour ago, heywoodu said:

I like how, when adding everyone's predictions, you'd probably always end up with a hundred more total medals than are actually available in the Olympics  

 

Also fun when someone calls athlete A an outsider yet gives like 40% chance  

Really? It seems to me that general tone is pessimistic (barring India and Brazil ).

 

If all these nations stand to lose medals, one wonders who will gain them.

[heywoodu 15,124]

2 minutes ago, dcro said:

Really? It seems to me that general tone is pessimistic (barring India and Brazil ).

 

If all these nations stand to lose medals, one wonders who will gain them.

Something that might skew how it looks is that only a part of the medals have users representing the countries here  

 

A decent sized number of medals will be won by countries who aren't represented here and so won't appear in the predictions..

[thiago_simoes 1,423]

13 minutes ago, dcro said:

Really? It seems to me that general tone is pessimistic (barring India and Brazil ).

 

If all these nations stand to lose medals, one wonders who will gain them.

LOL, you're right. I predicted 15 medals, which would be 4 less than in 2016, but I believe that no one who follows the sport in the country would be happy with anything other than 20 medals or more this time. If our judokas and volleyball teams had been in better shape, I would have predicted over 20 medals for sure. Also, on paper, Brazil can challenge for 6 medals in artistic gymnastics, and if we manage to get 4 or more, I would go crazy. Our chances are: men's rings, men's horizontal bar, women's all-around, women's vault, women's balance beam and women's floor. I believe women's vault is our "safest" medal with Rebeca Andrade. Of course, she has to qualify first, but she's in excellent shape in training, maybe the best she has ever been.

[Laraja 1,494]

2 minutes ago, thiago_simoes said:

LOL, you're right. I predicted 15 medals, which would be 4 less than in 2016, but I believe that no one who follows the sport in the country would be happy with anything other than 20 medals or more this time. If our judokas and volleyball teams had been in better shape, I would have predicted over 20 medals for sure. Also, on paper, Brazil can challenge for 6 medals in artistic gymnastics, and if we manage to get 4 or more, I would go crazy. Our chances are: men's rings, men's horizontal bar, women's all-around, women's vault, women's balance beam and women's floor. I believe women's vault is our "safest" medal with Rebeca Andrade. Of course, she has to qualify first, but she's in excellent shape in training, maybe the best she has ever been.

If she has the opportunity to qualify...

[Vektor 3,326]

1 hour ago, dcro said:

Really? It seems to me that general tone is pessimistic (barring India and Brazil ).

 

If all these nations stand to lose medals, one wonders who will gain them.

Yeah, I wouldn't call the predictions here optimistic, pretty much no one is overestimating their country in this thread. Like, I am usually a more pessimistic person, and somehow my prediction here turned out to be more hopeful than most of the others.  (and even I said that there's a very real possibility of us having a terrible Games, as many of our medal and gold chances are in unpredictable sports like fencing, wrestling, sailing, shooting, etc.)