How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (2021 "A" version)

[heywoodu 15,148]

4 minutes ago, hckošice said:

You know that I agree 50km + Canoe Slalom C2 & K4-1000m removal were almost a criminal act from IOC

 

oh Tóth should do well, no worries, his trainings are just unbelievable, himself saying he is feeling better than it was before the Beijing WCh..., but I do not want to say more, because you know jinx etc...  so yeah JPN boys are the top favs

Right, got it. Toth is gonna get destroyed!

[hckošice 14,836]

6 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

But historical results mean nothing since it's the current Olympics, not the past ones  

 

Which Slovaks have at least a not unrealistic chance for gold? For example Sagan so far recently wouldn't be considered much of a favourite, but he's also Sagan and one would be blind to not at least keep an eye on him  

Sagan major problem is that we have only 2 quotas, something which was long years his strongest part when did not need the help of colleagues, today sadly no longer applies. the competition is younger and stronger. he can hardly win alone now. against stronger and more numerous teams basically impossible. The truth is that Olympic success is the only thing he lacks in his resume and we know how he can make miracles when focusing...Vino won in London so starnger things happen in sport. but I'm afraid Tokyo is unrealistic for him anyway.

 

as I said.

Mixed Team Trap and Canoe Slalom M C1 (event we never failed to medal since the independence and our first Olympic participation in Atlanta 1996, so hopefully we will be able to continue this tradition, Slafkovský, Beňuš or the immortal Michal Martikán are all able to win a medal) should be our best medal chances, maybe even gold in a given day.

Outside of them, M & W Trap, W Skeet, M 50km Race Walk and Canoe Sprint M K4-500m may also be counted as event with some decent chances for us.

[phelps 7,680]

1 hour ago, hckošice said:

He may be a medal contender for sure, but honestly I do not think Alex or any other european will be capable to beat the home starters Kawano & Suzuki

naaa, I was joking...

 

nobody wants him to comeback also here in Italy...

 

and let's be serious...if he comes back and walks a 3.35 race after 5 years without a proper training, I'm the first one to think something crazy is goin'on...

 

it would be more than a farce, despite all of his natural talent (which I'm sure is superior to most of the current top race walkers, but it can't be that good)...

 

still, as I wrote before more than once, I'd pay a good amount of money to see him destroying the field...just to humiliate WADA, WA and IOC and their dirty manipulations...

 

but it won't happen...so, there's no reason to get worried about that...

[Dragon 1,845]

1 hour ago, heywoodu said:

Right, got it. Toth is gonna get destroyed!

This is probably the only website where race walking gets written about more than the men's 100m...

[Vektor 3,326]

2 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

Looks like all these predictions we can find online are really stupid.

 

We have to do it by ourselves ;-)

I was actually thinking about making a giant Google form for the site to forecast the medals. But we are talking about 339 events here, so it would take a lot of time for anyone to answer a form like that even if they skip some of the disciplines. 

 

Should we try to do a TISC forecast with a giant poll, probably with Google forms, or maybe with something else if that's better suited for users answering 3x339 questions? I am only talking about medals and nations, so users wouldn't have to name individual athletes. 

[JoshMartini007 2,538]

2 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

Looks like all these predictions we can find online are really stupid.

 

We have to do it by ourselves ;-)

One big issue for places like GraceNote is that they only consider the top three for each event when in reality many events can have many entrants with at least a 5-10% chance. This usually evens out which is one reason GraceNote is no longer listing the medal winners (the other being money), but you sometimes get scenarios where a nation barely sneaks in/misses the top three more often than not.

 

The other big issue (which can be seen in world rankings) is that athletes/teams which compete more often (or in more prestigious events) can inflate their position which causes a big surprise to non-experts within the sport.

 

I tried to construct a prediction model about a year ago, but COVID ruined it.

[heywoodu 15,148]

54 minutes ago, Dragon said:

This is probably the only website where race walking gets written about more than the men's 100m...

That's because it's more fun and only real fans realize that.

[heywoodu 15,148]

52 minutes ago, Vektor said:

But we are talking about 339 events here, so it would take a lot of time for anyone to answer a form like that even if they skip some of the disciplines. 

Took me a month or two last time I think (when I made a total medal table per country, not one like GraceNote where every event gets a gold, silver and bronze medalist and that's it) and that was with the help of a lot of users around here for specific sports...

[heywoodu 15,148]

42 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

One big issue for places like GraceNote is that they only consider the top three for each event when in reality many events can have many entrants with at least a 5-10% chance. This usually evens out which is one reason GraceNote is no longer listing the medal winners (the other being money), but you sometimes get scenarios where a nation barely sneaks in/misses the top three more often than not.

 

The other big issue (which can be seen in world rankings) is that athletes/teams which compete more often (or in more prestigious events) can inflate their position which causes a big surprise to non-experts within the sport.

 

I tried to construct a prediction model about a year ago, but COVID ruined it.

Exactly my issue with any prediction that looks at it on a per-event basis. Imagine a theoretical country with a 5-10% medal chance in all 339 events. GraceNote would have them ending up with no medals at all (assuming there's no event where 10% medal chance is enough to be in the top-3 countries), even though that would be incredibly unrealistic with 339 of those chances.

[Braulio 139]

The brazilian website gives mexicans 4 medals including a gold and bronze in Taekwondo.... Thanks but that wont happen, will be extremely hard to get one medal and given our two athletes belong to the heavyweight divisions with so many powerful rivals we will be lucky if we get a bronze, this time I'm not that positive with taekwondo given the poor results over this olympic cycle and the controversial management the sport is getting here.

 

At least with a medal of any colour, Mexico can have the winning streak alive since the sport was included in Sydney taekwondo has given a medal in each games thus far.

 

Medals in Athletics & archery, doesn't sound that out of reach of posibility