How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (2021 "A" version)

[Jinzha 703]

On 11/04/2021 at 19:25, Jinzha said:

I don't have much to add really, looks like a solid prediction. I made my version with pessimistic-optimistic ranges:

 

Archery: 0-1

Athletics: 0-2 - no idea what Hassan's form is, feels like in a good week she wins 2 golds and in a bad week she doesn't even run. Hopefully Femke Bol or Nadine Visser can surprise the American competition for a medal as well, even a bronze would be awesome.

Cycling road: 1-2 - a gold for Van der Breggen or Van Vleuten in the road race would be amazing. As a farewell race for AvdB or as a redemption after the Rio fall for AvV.

Cycling track: 3-5 - no competitions to really judge, but in addition to the men's sprint and omnium, I hope there is also a medal chances in the keirin (m) and madisson (m/w) events.

BMX: 1-2 - no clue how everyone is doing in this sport, but the Smulders sisters, Kimmann and Van Gendt were usually all medal contenders.

Mountainbike: 1 - the world cups this spring will have to show how Van der Poel stands in the MTB field. If he has a bad day, there is still Milan Vader and Anne Terpstra that can potentially ride top 3.

Field hockey: 1-2

Artistic gymnastics: 0-1 - another Epke Zonderland gold would be such an amazing story

Handball: 0-1

Judo: 1-2

Rowing: 3-5

Sailing: 3-4 - in addition to RS:X men, 470 women and 49erFX women, there should also be chances in either RS:X or Laser Radial women I think?

Swimming: 0-2 - one medal in open water swimming and hopefully one by Arno Kamminga (m breaststroke) or Kira Toussaint (w backstroke)

Suprise medal: 1-3 - these are always the most fun! Some candidates that I haven't mentioned yet are Football women's team or maybe Keet Oldenbeuving (skateboard). I also noticed I forgot Nouschka Fontijn, but since I have never seen a boxing match in my life, I'll consider her a surprise medal.

 

Total: 15-33

 

As ranges go, it would end up somewhere in the middle around that 20-25 mark. Hopefully with 8 golds like in Rio.

If I could pick and choose, I'd go with: Anne van der Breggen (cycling road), 3x Harrie Lavreysen (track cycling team sprint, sprint and keirin), Mathieu van der Poel (mtb), field hockey women, Kiran Badloe (sailing RS:X) and a rowing boat.

 

Wishful thinking, I know! With a thread like this, I just can't wait for the games to start.

And here I thought my 33 medals was the optimistic end of the range. What an absurd Gracenote prediction!

 

Now that I see my post again I realise I forgot a gold medal for Epke Zonderland if I could pick and choose 8 golds. That is clearly a mistake! To fix that, our rowing team will have to do with only silvers and bronzes in my version of the Games.

[CCB 628]

29 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

And here I thought my 33 medals was the optimistic end of the range. What an absurd Gracenote prediction!

 

Now that I see my post again I realise I forgot a gold medal for Epke Zonderland if I could pick and choose 8 golds. That is clearly a mistake! To fix that, our rowing team will have to do with only silvers and bronzes in my version of the Games.

Complete nonsense that Gracenote prediction. Especially the numbers for the Netherlands. But hey, it does generate nice discussions.

 

The row medals will all be silver and bronze indeed. And those 5 gold medals in sailing? Then the wind must blow very well for the Netherlands. Epke Zonderland for gold? Then I would rather bet on Bart Deurloo. Although I do not expect the Netherlands to win this gold. The Japanese have been scary good lately.

 

Do you have a list of the exact medal winners for the Netherlands?

[heywoodu 16,468]

34 minutes ago, CCB said:

Complete nonsense that Gracenote prediction. Especially the numbers for the Netherlands. But hey, it does generate nice discussions.

 

The row medals will all be silver and bronze indeed. And those 5 gold medals in sailing? Then the wind must blow very well for the Netherlands. Epke Zonderland for gold? Then I would rather bet on Bart Deurloo. Although I do not expect the Netherlands to win this gold. The Japanese have been scary good lately.

 

Do you have a list of the exact medal winners for the Netherlands?

To be fair, anything that comes anywhere near the current world championships medal table (for any country) is already not complete nonsense  It might not be the most realistic outcome, but that table is filled with actual results instead of predictions, so those results are possible.

[Jinzha 703]

39 minutes ago, CCB said:

Complete nonsense that Gracenote prediction. Especially the numbers for the Netherlands. But hey, it does generate nice discussions.

 

The row medals will all be silver and bronze indeed. And those 5 gold medals in sailing? Then the wind must blow very well for the Netherlands. Epke Zonderland for gold? Then I would rather bet on Bart Deurloo. Although I do not expect the Netherlands to win this gold. The Japanese have been scary good lately.

 

Do you have a list of the exact medal winners for the Netherlands?

Just to be sure: the Epke Zonderland medal I mentioned was the little prediction I did 'if I could pick and choose 8 gold medals'. I don't think 3x gold for Lavreyssen is very realistic either, I just like him! And Epke Zonderland

 

I couldn't find a full list of the 46 medals Gracenote predicts, you have to file an official request to get it and probably pay for it. I just tried to google and could only find the same few medal winners quoted by pretty much every Dutch media. I can piece together most of the 16 golds from what I saw online though:

• Sifan Hassan (10.000M)
• Hockey W
• Anna van der Breggen (road race and time trial)
• Niek Kimmann and Laura Smulders (BMX)
• Harry Lavreyssen (sprint and keirin)
• Team sprint M
• Kirsten Wild/Amy Pieters (madisson)
• 5x sailing (not mentioned which classes, but I can only imagine: 2x RS:X, Laser Radial W, 470 W and 49erRX W)

 

Seems like one gold medal winner is not interesting enough to be mentioned in the media so far.

[CCB 628]

18 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

Just to be sure: the Epke Zonderland medal I mentioned was the little prediction I did 'if I could pick and choose 8 gold medals'. I don't think 3x gold for Lavreyssen is very realistic either, I just like him! And Epke Zonderland

 

I couldn't find a full list of the 46 medals Gracenote predicts, you have to file an official request to get it and probably pay for it. I just tried to google and could only find the same few medal winners quoted by pretty much every Dutch media. I can piece together most of the 16 golds from what I saw online though:

• Sifan Hassan (10.000M)
• Hockey W
• Anna van der Breggen (road race and time trial)
• Niek Kimmann and Laura Smulders (BMX)
• Harry Lavreyssen (sprint and keirin)
• Team sprint M
• Kirsten Wild/Amy Pieters (madisson)
• 5x sailing (not mentioned which classes, but I can only imagine: 2x RS:X, Laser Radial W, 470 W and 49erRX W)

 

Seems like one gold medal winner is not interesting enough to be mentioned in the media so far.

I think the handball women are the last one predicted for gold. (And today they lost against Croatia again by the way)

 

Earlier I predicted 20-25 medals, Gracenote has a lot more confidence in the Dutch. Let's see what happens in the next 116 days!

[heywoodu 16,468]

29 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

Just to be sure: the Epke Zonderland medal I mentioned was the little prediction I did 'if I could pick and choose 8 gold medals'. I don't think 3x gold for Lavreyssen is very realistic either, I just like him! And Epke Zonderland

 

I couldn't find a full list of the 46 medals Gracenote predicts, you have to file an official request to get it and probably pay for it. I just tried to google and could only find the same few medal winners quoted by pretty much every Dutch media. I can piece together most of the 16 golds from what I saw online though:

• Sifan Hassan (10.000M)
• Hockey W
• Anna van der Breggen (road race and time trial)
• Niek Kimmann and Laura Smulders (BMX)
• Harry Lavreyssen (sprint and keirin)
• Team sprint M
• Kirsten Wild/Amy Pieters (madisson)
• 5x sailing (not mentioned which classes, but I can only imagine: 2x RS:X, Laser Radial W, 470 W and 49erRX W)

 

Seems like one gold medal winner is not interesting enough to be mentioned in the media so far.

Thing is, none of these are unrealistic other than maybe some of the sailing ones (I don't really watch sailing, probably also not during the Olympics so it's not like I really care that much about who wins those events ). And it's also not like these are the only sort of serious gold medal chances, so one could definitely exchange an event here or there.

 

Like with any country it can go a lot of ways, 15 medals wouldn't suprise me and neither would 35.

[Jinzha 703]

I'm just going to enjoy pretending we are the 5th best (summer) sports nation in the world for a nice 100 days and then come back to earth

 

I have to think hard to figure out 13 more potential Dutch medalists on top of the optimistic 33 range I predicted earlier though. Maybe something out of the box like medals in diving, tennis mixed doubles or badminton...

[OlympicsFan 860]

6 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

I'm just going to enjoy pretending we are the 5th best (summer) sports nation in the world for a nice 100 days and then come back to earth

 

I have to think hard to figure out 13 more potential Dutch medalists on top of the optimistic 33 range I predicted earlier though. Maybe something out of the box like medals in diving, tennis mixed doubles or badminton...

I don’t know what medals you already predicted, but in swimming/athletics a super optimistic prediction could look like this:

Swimming:

2 x Kamminga (100 and 200 breast)

Toussaint (100 back)

Kromowidjojo (50 free)

Weertman (10 km Open water)

Van Rouwendaal (10 km Open water)

 

Athletics:

Schippers (200 m)

2 x Bol (400 m and 400 m hurdles)

Women‘s 4x400 m relay

2 x Hassan (5000 m and 10000 m)

Visser (100 m hurdles)

Vetter (heptathlon)

[OlympicsFan 860]

52 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

Just to be sure: the Epke Zonderland medal I mentioned was the little prediction I did 'if I could pick and choose 8 gold medals'. I don't think 3x gold for Lavreyssen is very realistic either, I just like him! And Epke Zonderland

 

I couldn't find a full list of the 46 medals Gracenote predicts, you have to file an official request to get it and probably pay for it. I just tried to google and could only find the same few medal winners quoted by pretty much every Dutch media. I can piece together most of the 16 golds from what I saw online though:

• Sifan Hassan (10.000M)
• Hockey W
• Anna van der Breggen (road race and time trial)
• Niek Kimmann and Laura Smulders (BMX)
• Harry Lavreyssen (sprint and keirin)
• Team sprint M
• Kirsten Wild/Amy Pieters (madisson)
• 5x sailing (not mentioned which classes, but I can only imagine: 2x RS:X, Laser Radial W, 470 W and 49erRX W)

 

Seems like one gold medal winner is not interesting enough to be mentioned in the media so far.

Not sure about Hassan in the 10000 m, Van der Breggen in the time trial (what about the American girl?) and all the sailing golds.

 

5 golds in sailing would be really impressive given that no nation has won at least 5 golds since Norway did it in 1920 (7 golds) when there were 14 events. In 5 of the Events where they won gold, there were no other competitors ...

[Jinzha 703]

24 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

I don’t know what medals you already predicted, but in swimming/athletics a super optimistic prediction could look like this:

Swimming:

2 x Kamminga (100 and 200 breast)

Toussaint (100 back)

Kromowidjojo (50 free)

Weertman (10 km Open water)

Van Rouwendaal (10 km Open water)

 

Athletics:

Schippers (200 m)

2 x Bol (400 m and 400 m hurdles)

Women‘s 4x400 m relay

2 x Hassan (5000 m and 10000 m)

Visser (100 m hurdles)

Vetter (heptathlon)

That is some true optimism, I like it! You could work for Gracenote.

 

I predicted 2 medals in swimming (between Van Rouwendaal, Weertman and Kamminga) and 2 in athletics (between Hassan, Visser and Bol). I already considered those optimistic. Hassan feels especially unpredictable. Of course I hope she can repeat her Doha 2019 dominance, would be amazing for her.

 

Also a small nitpick, Bol will only run 400 m hurdles and 4x400 m in Tokyo, at least that was her position after the indoor season. And I'm not sure if Vetter is qualified, because she DNFed the Doha 2019 heptathlon. I think Götzis in May is her last shot.