How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (2021 "A" version)

[Joshi 123]

NZ to fail miserably at these games. A bullying culture by sports bodies, infighting, mass retirements I could go on and on ?. So all this will probably only reap 8-12 medals. On the other hand it looks like our neighbours Australia are going to bounce back with a bang 40+ for them. 

[phelps 7,677]

4 hours ago, Triplecast said:

Yes, Maybe I am being a little too fast on those, but after the week-end she had, she is certainly in the top 2 internationally right now.  She's a second faster than anyone else in the 200 and 7 seconds faster than anyone else in the 400.  We'll see how Titmus comes back from her injury.  I'll take the 200 FS off my list for now.    

don't worry, I was joking...

 

as you might imagine, I'm a little biased on the 200m Free (by the way, Pellegrini last week was faster than she was in Spring 2019, when she finally won the world title once again...so, I'm also quite optimistic...still, very much biased)...

 

in any case, it won't be easy for Ledecky over the 200m and 400m...surely not as easy as it was in 2016...

[phelps 7,677]

if the Olympics started tomorrow, my prediction for Italy would be:

 

- Athletics, 1-2 medals (race walking and men's high jump the best chances)

- Swimming, from a minimum of 5 medals (men's 400m + 800m + 1500m free, women's 1500m free and 1 between women's 800m free and men's 100m breast) to a very optimistic 9 medals (the 6 events mentioned before with a double medal in the men's 800m free + the women's 100m breast and the men's 4*200m free relay)

- Open Water Swimming, 1-2 medals (Paltrinieri not winning a medal would be very disappointing, Bruni is still the silver medallist from Rio 2016)

- Judo, from 0 to 4 medals (if we don't medal in the men's -66kg and women's -52kg, it would be a big disappointment, men's -73kg and -81kg are more outside chances than true expectations)

- Wrestling, 1 medal (men's Freestyle -74kg)

- Karate, 3 to 5 medals (women's Kata is a lock, women's -68kg and men's -75kg are "not to be missed" targets, women's -55kg and men's -67kg are more than simple outsiders)

- Taekwondo, 0-2 medals (both the men's -58kg and -80kg are realistic medal threats -even if the last one still has to qualify, hopefully at least 1 of them comes home with a medal)

- Gymnastics, 0-2 medals (men's Rings and women's team in artistic gymnastic, the group event in rhythmic gymnastics...I hope at least 1 of those 3 potential medals would eventually come home)

- Rowing, 4 medals (both lightweight doubles, M4- and M4X are the only medal candidates, but they are really strong medal candidates)

- Canoeing, 0-1 medals (we just have 3 or 4 outside chances, not a real contender...most likely, our best results would come from men's K1 200m, men's K2 1000m and both slalom K1 events)

- Sailing, 1 medal (Nacra17 mixed...but since sailing is so unpredictable, I secretly hope we can get also 1 or 2 more surprising medals, men's RS:X being the best shot)

- Cycling, 4-5 medals (men's team pursuit and both Omnium events on the track are a lock, Ganna in the men's ITT and the women's road race are also expected medals...hoping to add some more, but it would be extremely difficult)

- Weightlifting, 0-1 medals (men's -81kg could be a realistic shot at a medal)

- Shooting, at least 1 medal in each clay target shooting event is a must (so, at least 5 medals)

- Fencing, at least 3 individual and 5 team medals (8 in total)

- Team Sports, 1-2 medals (men's Waterpolo, both Volleyball teams and the men's Beach Volley competitions are all possible targets, I hope at least a couple of them would eventually succeed)

- other Sports...I don't think we stand a chance, maybe except for a miracle medal in men's Tennis (Jannik Sinner more than Matteo Berrettini) if the starting field is not too strong...

 

in total, it should be around 35 (very realistic, almost pessimistic view) to 45 medals (very optimistic and unrealistic scenario)...

 

everything below 30 medals (and 8 Golds) should be considered a big flop, a shame, a disaster...

 

personally, I'd be happy with 35 medals (but at least 12 being Gold)...

[intoronto 5,641]

@phelpsI think you forgot about the 200m back in swimming

[Triplecast 156]

11 minutes ago, intoronto said:

@phelpsI think you forgot about the 200m back in swimming

I'm counting on Regan Smith being in her 2019 form.  

[MHSN 3,619]

I will make it simple

 

I believe anybody from Iran in wrestling, Taekwondo, Weightlifting and Karate (men and women) will have a good chance for medal. average 50%. some of them much more. some of them much less.

 

we have 11 quotas in wrestling, 2 in Taekwondo, probably (and hopefully) 2 in weightlifting, already 3 in Karate and I expect to qualify at least 2 more. that's 20 quotas 20/2 = 10

 

so my prediction is 10 medals.

[NMQ 243]

Right now i´m pessimistic for , all our teams/athletes with medal chances are either a mistery or not in their best form, or compete in events that are hard to predict. All in all, I´d say something between 1-3. Our most realistic chances for a medal would be:

 

Field hockey: women´s team should be our best shot this time, they just played their first couple official games in one year so it´s hard to judge their level, but I think they are favourites to medal unlike the last time. On the opposite, the men are the current champions, but the cycle has been a mess and I don´t think they will repeat the podium.

 

Football (men): impossible to know, depends a lot on the names that can play and even then it´s kinda random. But the team will be more prepared than in Rio, that´s for sure. 

 

Judo (women´s 48 Kg): final olympic tournament por Paula Pareto. She won´t be a medal favourite this time I think, but she´s in the mix and with her experience and a good draw can make it happen. 

 

Sailing (Nacra17): current olympic champions, don´t think they are favourites for a medal again, but who knows, this one is very hard to guess.

 

Smaller chances, but if all the planets align:

 

Basketball (men): yeah, the team was the finalist in the last world cup, but that performance will be very hard to repeat and competition will be harder. I don´t see it happening.

 

Rugby (men): not a medal favourite, but definitely a team that can be in the final 8. And if on the other side there´s no Fiji, then there´s a chance. 

 

Swimming (1500m women´s freestyle): if Pignatiello somehow peaks and throws a PB, it´s a slow race and one of Ledecky/Quadarella/Wang/Li/Kohler gets ill or something, then maybe... But won´t happen.

 

Taekwondo (men´s 58 Kg): a later addition after posting, Guzmán won bronze in the last world championship, but no idea about his form now.

 

Tennis: if the tournaments have random results, who knows, especially in doubles. Maybe Zeballos/Gonzalez (men) or Zeballos/Podoroska (mixed) can make some noise. 

 

The rest I don´t know (men´s volleyball?) or it´s too random (shooting?) or just won´t happen. 

 

[intoronto 5,641]

1 hour ago, Triplecast said:

I'm counting on Regan Smith being in her 2019 form.  

There is two medals after too lol....

[Makedonas 2,155]

On 11/04/2021 at 20:00, Benolympique said:

France

 

Athletics - 2

Basket 3x3 Women's - 1

Boxing - 2

Canoeing Slalom - 2

Canoeing Sprint - 1

Cycling Road - 1

Cycling Track - 2 (1 Gold)

Cycling V.T.T - 1 (1 Gold)

Cycling B.M.X - 1

Equestrian - 1

Fencing - 5 (3 Gold)

Football - 1

Gymnastics Artistics - 1

Hand-Ball - 1

Judo - 6 (3 Gold)

Karaté - 1 (1 Gold)

Modern Pentathlon - 1

Rowing - 1

Sailing - 2 (1 Gold)

Shooting - 1

Swimming - 1

Swimming Marathon - 1

Taekwondo - 1

Triathlon - 2 (2 Gold)

Wrestling - 1

 

Total 40

Gold 12

What about tennis (doubles)?

[LDOG 2,418]

8 hours ago, NMQ said:

Right now i´m pessimistic for , all our teams/athletes with medal chances are either a mistery or not in their best form, or compete in events that are hard to predict. All in all, I´d say something between 1-3.

 

This will be the first time since I follow games that we will go with nothing but outside chances. Very grim looking. It's also telling that it's pretty much the same people that had chances 5 years ago, only that older and in decline. We haven't been able to develop a single new world class athlete. Even Chile has bigger chances than us, embarassing.