How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (2021 "A" version)

[thiago_simoes 1,423]

1 hour ago, intoronto said:

I maybe wrong and maybe @thiago_simoescan confirm, but doesn't look like Petrounias will qualify for Tokyo.

There's a chance. He can still qualify through the Apparatus World Cup series. Currently, Liu Yang from China is ahead of Petrounias, but there's a chance Petrounias can still beat him on average points. Highly unlikely at this point, but I believe it's not impossible.

 

China could also try to earn an extra quota through the Asian Championships. Now, this quota would be open to any Chinese gymnast, so it's a lot more interesting for China to earn this quota than accept the one from the World Cup series, which would be restricted to Liu Yang. Let's suppose he gets injured before the Olympics, for example; China would lose this quota this way. But if they refuse the quota from the World Cup series and accept the quota from the Asian Championships, instead, they can take whoever they want. In this case, Petrounias would be second best, and would receive the quota instead. This is a lot more likely to happen.

 

That being said, Petrounias has been absent from competition for over one year now, and the other competitors are very fierce. China could realistically send both Liu Yang and You Hao to the Olympics, and other nations have their own specialists already qualified -- Turkey has Çolak, Ukraine has Radivilov, France has Said, Italy has Lodadio, Brazil has Zanetti. It could be anyone's game.

[mrv86 3,138]

0-3 medals for Mexico, none of them gold like in Rio.

 

Most likely to succed: Tae kwon do, Diving, Football

Outside chance: Archery, Athletics, Gymnastics (artistic)

[Triplecast 156]

3 hours ago, bmo said:

The goal for the U.S. should be 50 golds & 130 total.

At first I thought that seems high, but then again there are 33 more events this time than 2016.  I always tend to think low, and could foresee as low as 30.  Every Games, I think something will happen to take the US under 30 golds, which hasn't happened since 1936.

 

I thought to myself, what are the surest US golds? Be interested to hear other thoughts

 

I'd say W Basketball, W Team Gymnastics, W Ind AA, Swim W 800 and 1500 FS, W 100 Breast, W 200 Back, W 4x200,  M & W 4x100 Med. Relay, Athletics 200 m, M 4x400, W 4x400, Mixed 4x400, W 400 hurdles, Wrestling W 76KG, Surfing W.  

 

 

 

      

[LDOG 2,418]

5 minutes ago, mrv86 said:

0-3 medals for Mexico, none of them gold like in Rio.

 

Most likely to succed: Tae kwon do, Diving, Football

Outside chance: Archery, Athletics, Gymnastics (artistic)

Baseball and softball have higher chances than football. 

[dcro 10,210]

2 hours ago, CCB said:

Let me be clear. Hopefully I'm wrong. But in our two main sports (rowing and track cycling) the delay of the Games is a disaster. We were well on track for several (gold) medals, but in rowing we lost our lead. And I see the same thing happening in track cycling (GB). 

Oh well, the extra year has been highly beneficial for the Dutch dressage.

 

Between team dressage, team & individual jumping, I think you should count on at least one medal in equestrian.

[mrv86 3,138]

4 minutes ago, LDOG said:

Baseball and softball have higher chances than football. 

In principle it could be easier.

 

But Baseball team is there by a real miracle that I think won't repeat itself. They will most likely beat the US Jewish Community, but can't see them progress

Softball has qualified on pure merits and I'm proud they will manage to put a fierce competition, but if only with some luck on their side they will fight for bronze against the Aussies.

[rybak 3,218]

My bets for

 

If no one won't be too much affected by covid and everyone will be able to compete since having negative tests, I predict:

 

Athletics: 3-4. The women's 4x400m relay and two medals in (Fajdek, Nowicki, Włodarczyk, Kopron) hammer throw seems to be safe bets for medal. There is always hope for Piotr Lisek in pole vault, but with current level and considering how many guys jumped over 6.00m lately it seems inpossible for Lisek to fight for medal, all depends of form at the day from the rest of the field. Marcin Lewandowski on 1500m also isn't without chance, his main rivals will be Kenyans and Ingebritsen's. Also in men's shot put Michał Haratyk might be in top5 but medals seems to be far from him atm, all depends of this how good he will be prepared for summer. Maybe an of our girls in both 800/1500m will make surprise but I'm not too sure.

 

Basketball 3x3: 0-1. If men's team will qualify they might be among favourites

 

Boxing 0-1: I believe that few our girls will qualify and at least one of them will leave Tokyo with medal on the neck.

 

Canoeing 1-2: We always have medals there, the most realistic in women's K4-500m. Maybe an surprise will happen in slalom, but I'm pesimistic here.

 

Cycling road 0-2: Katarzyna Niewiadoma and Rafał Majka (if will be selected) can fight for medals.

 

Cycling track 1-2: We have couple chances here the biggest in men's sprint, men's team sprint and men's keirin and maybe in omnium.

 

Fencing 0-1: Women's epee team will be seeded at the Games, so, they will avoid strong teams at the beginning, they need just to beat one team and will be in medal zone. It seems that our girls even must take medal here, but you never know....

 

Judo 0: I'm realistic and don't believe for any medal here, but maybe Kowalczyk and Perenc on good day can fight for quarterfinals/semifinals.

 

Rowing 2-3: Despite terrible perfromance in this weekend at European Champs I still believe that we will take some medals here. Both fours and women's quadruple sculls are medal contenders. If Natan Węgrzycki-Szymczyk in single sculls will qualify in Lucerne also can fight for medal in Tokyo.

 

Sailing 0-2: The last Olympics with our best event RS:X, Zofia Noceti-Klepacka have big heart and always give her best at competition, so, we can not her among candidates. Also Piotr Myszka will fight as well. It would be nice to see our women's 470 boat with medal too, but here I have some doubts.

 

Shooting 0-1: Our girls surprises whole country at last world cup in Delhi, maybe another surprise will happen in Tokyo, who knows...

 

Taekwondo 0-1: So far only Kowalczuk is qualified but in this weekend Rio Olympian Karol Robak had a gold medal at European Championships, if he will qualify via European Qualifier he can be among medal contenders. Kowalczuk as well.

 

Volleyball 0-1: Well, well, it's the last real chance for even gold medal from our men's team in next 20 years. If they will break the quarterfinal curse then medal seems be safe.

 

Weightlifting 0-1: In this weekend Arkadiusz Michalski showed that in good day can fight for medal, but Olympic medal seems to be away, it depends what opponents he will have and if the jury panel will be fair as well...

 

Wrestling 0-2: We always have medals there, but lately our performances were terrible. I really don't know who could fight for medals here, it depends if someone else will qualify via world qualifier next month, but I'm pesimistic here as well.

[Makedonas 2,155]

1 hour ago, Triplecast said:

At first I thought that seems high, but then again there are 33 more events this time than 2016.  I always tend to think low, and could foresee as low as 30.  Every Games, I think something will happen to take the US under 30 golds, which hasn't happened since 1936.

 

I thought to myself, what are the surest US golds? Be interested to hear other thoughts

 

I'd say W Basketball, W Team Gymnastics, W Ind AA, Swim W 800 and 1500 FS, W 100 Breast, W 200 Back, W 4x200,  M & W 4x100 Med. Relay, Athletics 200 m, M 4x400, W 4x400, Mixed 4x400, W 400 hurdles, Wrestling W 76KG, Surfing W.  

 

 

 

      

Softball is probably also a sure gold for the US, no?

[Jinzha 702]

1 hour ago, Triplecast said:

At first I thought that seems high, but then again there are 33 more events this time than 2016.  I always tend to think low, and could foresee as low as 30.  Every Games, I think something will happen to take the US under 30 golds, which hasn't happened since 1936.

 

I thought to myself, what are the surest US golds? Be interested to hear other thoughts

 

I'd say W Basketball, W Team Gymnastics, W Ind AA, Swim W 800 and 1500 FS, W 100 Breast, W 200 Back, W 4x200,  M 4x100 Med. Relay, Athletics 200 m, M 4x400, W 4x400, Mixed 4x400, W 400 hurdles, Wrestling W 76KG, Surfing W.  

 

 

 

      

I definitely see you winning women's football as well, though team sports are always hard to consider a guarantee. And why not M basketball? Isn't that a lock-in for the US every games?

 

Must be a special experience following the Olympics from an American perspective (or Chinese for that matter). Medal candidates in virtually every sports and so many athletes to follow.

[intoronto 5,645]

32 minutes ago, Makedonas said:

Softball is probably also a sure gold for the US, no?

Probably, but    and can threaten on a good day. Beijing 2008, Toronto 2015 all had USA lose the gold medal.