Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[De_Gambassi 1,281]

4 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

We should do a comparison against the Latest World Championships Medal Table, if they aren't any more accurate then doing basic counting of defending champions then their method isn't good.

It isn't 

 

	Tokyo 2020	Gracenote	% off	Totallympics	% off
	36	48	33 %	37	3 %
	33	42	27 %	42	27 %
	58	60	3 %	59	2 %
	40	41	3 %	36	10 %
	71	68	4 %	73	3 %
	37	35	5 %	43	16 %
	46	40	13 %	48	4 %
	113	96	15 %	100	12 %
	64	52	19 %	53	17 %
	89	66	26 %	96	8 %
Average off			14,89 %		10,17 %

 

 

 

Edited July 27, 2023 by De_Gambassi

[AsensioWillemsen 174]

2 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

Van Rouwendaal in the 10 km open water race? Brave prediction ...

And then there is Keirin, Show Jumping which are lotteries by itself, as well as Sailing in which rarely is delivered at Olympics, pregnant van Dijk, Bol who is second best behind McLaughlin as long as she participates at the hurdles.

And men's field hockey.. well, yeah. Don't see that one happening either.

 

Obviously there are some solid chances missing here as well, mainly the already mentioned road race and Puck Pieterse come to mind.

[De_Gambassi 1,281]

Actually, there might an even more accurate way of doing things ; counting how many different athletes/teams has won a medal in an olympic event during the olympic cycle (so not exactly the last WC medals table, nor the total medals one which counts the same athletes/teams over and over)

 

Apparently, this is how the french national sport agency is estimating the country medals chances. This cycle, they found out 107 podiums, and they assume a 50% convertion rate during the olympics (so 53-54 medals overall).

 

Here @Sindo, some works for you for your hollidays 

[CCB 613]

 

Totally ridiculous prediction for Netherlands again. As we see in the table of @De_Gambassi, the Netherlands is heavily overestimated again, just like in Tokyo. The Netherlands is king of sport in pre and post Olympic years. Not in Olympic years.

 

When Gracenote is 33% off again, we will win 28 medals. Maybe 5-6 golds, when we are lucky. That's far more realistic.

 

Teamsprint trackcycling will go to Australia.

Women's time trial: Van Dijk is pregnant as hell.

Open water swimming: van Rouwendaal won a lot in the past, but there are many good swimmers now (Beck, Grimes).

Horsejumping ??? Sweden wins all the Championships and Nations Cups, so it's strange to predict Netherlands.

Road cycling: Annemiek van Vleuten retires after this season.

Bol. Where is Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone?

 

Anyway, it's just a Gracenote prediction. 

 

 

[Jinzha 702]

My own medal prediction for , with pessimistic and optimistic ranges:

 

Archery: 0

Athletics: 2-4 - Sifan Hassan (maybe 2x), Femke Bol and enough contenders that could medal on a good day (4x400m women, Jessica Schilder, Jorinde van Klinken, Anouk Vetter).

Beach Volleyball: 0

Breaking: 1-2 - India, Menno and Lee can all podium I believe, even if I've never watched this sport.

Cycling BMX: 0-2 - hoping for Niek Kimmann or Merel Smulders, but somehow I'm fearing an all French podium on the mens side and Smulders is not a clear favorite either.

Cycling mtb: 1 - if Puck Pieterse keeps her form into next year... what a monster!!

Cycling road: 2 - womens road race and time trial. Medals should be expected, even if Kopecky and Reusser are probably favorites for gold.

Cycling track: 2-4 - mens team sprint, Harry Lavreysen sprint and keirin, Maike van der Duijn omnium

Equestrian: 1-2 - I avoid watching animal sports, but I believe Dinja van Liere and the jumping team are medal contenders.

Field hockey: 1-2 - the women team will surely reach the final when I cheer them on live in Paris at the semifinal, not as confident about the mens team though.

Football: 0

Gymnastics: 0

Handball: 0

Judo: 0-2 - Hoping for Joanne van Lieshout, other contenders are Sanne van Dijke, Guusje Steenhuis, Michael Korrel and Jur Spijkers. Going to lose a lot of contenders to home favorites probably.

Rowing: 3-5 - w1x, w4x, w4-, m4x and m2x I believe, but we'll have to see the new boats in action some more.

Sailing: 2-4 - 49er, 49er(fx), Marit Bouwmeester and maybe whoever qualifies in mens Foil

Swimming: 1-3 - Sharon van Rouwendaal, Arno Kamminga, Marrit Steenbergen and Tes Schouten can hopefully win 3 medals between them, but I wouldn't be suprised if only we end with only a bronze instead.

Volleyball: 0

Waterpolo: 0-1 - hopefully we can hire Italy to eliminate USA for us again, grazie mille in advance!

Other sports: 0 - maybe I forgot someone, but I don't think we have any other contenders.

Surprise medals: 1-2 - the best medals are the unexpected ones!

 

Total: 17-35 - I'll be happy if it ends up in the middle with 25.

 

I'd say we can expect about 8-10 golds, potentially from: Sifan Hassan, Harry Lavreysen, Puck Pieterse, Demi Vollering/Lorena Wiebes (depending on the race), Karolien Florijn, Van Aanholt/Duetz (49erFx), Lambriex/Van Werken (49er), Marit Bouwmeester and a suprise gold (Femke Bol? Marrit Steenbergen? India Sardjoe?)

Edited July 27, 2023 by Jinzha

[intoronto 6,640]

Y'all are underestimating your own country here

[SalamAkhi 348]

On 7/26/2023 at 12:20 PM, Vektor said:

That projection seems insane for France. +22 gold medals compared to Tokyo. Not even Japan had that kind of increase (they had +15) and they got a bunch of favorable new events to perform stronger. I am not sure where French sport stands at the moment, but my guess would be in the range of 15-20 gold medals.

Seems unrealistic but we underperformed very badly in Tokyo so the relative increase is not that huge. 

[intoronto 6,640]

I thought 10 golds for Canada was realistic target before seeing the WAC this year. Now just hoping for 7 or more and 25 plus medals

[CCB 613]

2 hours ago, Jinzha said:

My own medal prediction for , with pessimistic and optimistic ranges:

 

Archery: 0

Athletics: 2-4 - Sifan Hassan (maybe 2x), Femke Bol and enough contenders that could medal on a good day (4x400m women, Jessica Schilder, Jorinde van Klinken, Anouk Vetter).

Beach Volleyball: 0

Breaking: 1-2 - India, Menno and Lee can all podium I believe, even if I've never watched this sport.

Cycling BMX: 0-2 - hoping for Niek Kimmann or Merel Smulders, but somehow I'm fearing an all French podium on the mens side and Smulders is not a clear favorite either.

Cycling mtb: 1 - if Puck Pieterse keeps her form into next year... what a monster!!

Cycling road: 2 - womens road race and time trial. Medals should be expected, even if Kopecky and Reusser are probably favorites for gold.

Cycling track: 2-4 - mens team sprint, Harry Lavreysen sprint and keirin, Maike van der Duijn omnium

Equestrian: 1-2 - I avoid watching animal sports, but I believe Dinja van Liere and the jumping team are medal contenders.

Field hockey: 1-2 - the women team will surely reach the final when I cheer them on live in Paris at the semifinal, not as confident about the mens team though.

Football: 0

Gymnastics: 0

Handball: 0

Judo: 0-2 - Hoping for Joanne van Lieshout, other contenders are Sanne van Dijke, Guusje Steenhuis, Michael Korrel and Jur Spijkers. Going to lose a lot of contenders to home favorites probably.

Rowing: 3-5 - w1x, w4x, w4-, m4x and m2x I believe, but we'll have to see the new boats in action some more.

Sailing: 2-4 - 49er, 49er(fx), Marit Bouwmeester and maybe whoever qualifies in mens Foil

Swimming: 1-3 - Sharon van Rouwendaal, Arno Kamminga, Marit Bouwmeester and Tes Schouten can hopefully win 3 medals between them, but I wouldn't be suprised if only we end with only a bronze instead.

Volleyball: 0

Waterpolo: 0-1 - hopefully we can hire Italy to eliminate USA for us again, grazie mille in advance!

Other sports: 0 - maybe I forgot someone, but I don't think we have any other contenders.

Surprise medals: 1-2 - the best medals are the unexpected ones!

 

Total: 17-35 - I'll be happy if it ends up in the middle with 25.

 

I'd say we can expect about 8-10 golds, potentially from: Sifan Hassan, Harry Lavreysen, Puck Pieterse, Demi Vollering/Lorena Wiebes (depending on the race), Karolien Florijn, Van Aanholt/Duetz (49erFx), Lambriex/Van Werken (49er), Marit Bouwmeester and a suprise gold (Femke Bol? Marit Steenbergen? India Sardjoe?)

A very realistic prediction, thanks for that! 

 

 Marit Bouwmeester medals in swimming? Maybe when her boat capsizes and she quickly swims back!

 

 

Edited July 27, 2023 by CCB
grammar

[Jinzha 702]

9 minutes ago, CCB said:

A very realistic prediction, thanks for that! 

 

 Marit Bouwmeester medals in swimming? Maybe when her boat capsizes and she quickly swims back!

 

 

Too many Marits! And I wouldn't put it past Bouwmeester to swim the 10km open water after capsizing, she doesn't seem like one that gives up easily.

 

I realised recently that this could be the 4th Games where Bouwmeester wins a medal. She would be the 8th Dutch athlete to achieve that.

There might also be a hockey player that was at London, Rio and Tokyo? Eva de Goede and Lidewij Welten both got their 4th consecutive medal in Tokyo.