Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[Oldira 88]

3 hours ago, OlympicIRL said:

Sport Ireland’s high performance strategy 2021-2032) outlines a target of 5-7 medals for this Olympics.

Today I am convinced we will get 10. Tomorrow I’ll be back to 6. 

[Josh 10,517]

10 minutes ago, Oldira said:

Today I am convinced we will get 10. Tomorrow I’ll be back to 6. 

Pretty much exactly the way my mind works. One day I think Canada will win 27 medals and 10 golds, the next 18 and 5 gold. 

[TeamGB 174]

2 hours ago, HPSL said:

Which tournament have you considered for Tennis? 

And yesss, please do this for Paralympics too..

ATP Finals, but I'm not really sure what I did for Mixed doubles, I've changed them to 2024 French open for Singles events and tried to get a best overall doubles nations from the past few French opens for doubles.

 

Here's and updated version.

Medal Table.xlsx

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

On 7/15/2024 at 8:12 PM, phelps said:

Italian biggest sports website (OA) full predictions

 

https://www.oasport.it/2024/07/olimpiadi-parigi-2024-il-medagliere-di-oa-sport-tutti-i-podi-italia-ottava-francia-terza/

 

once again, imho,  and maybe even  and  have been underestimated, meanwhile  and, above all,  have been clearly overestimated

This is the second prediction that I have seen with  Mathilde Gros taking the gold in the individual sprint in track cycling. Whilst I do think the French team will benefit from home crowd advantage, I just can't see it helping Gros to that extent. She was 7th at the Worlds last year, 4th at this year's Europeans and although she did win the last Nations Cup, it was the weakest field in the series. 

 

What am I missing? 

[De_Gambassi 1,223]

16 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

This is the second prediction that I have seen with  Mathilde Gros taking the gold in the individual sprint in track cycling. Whilst I do think the French team will benefit from home crowd advantage, I just can't see it helping Gros to that extent. She was 7th at the Worlds last year, 4th at this year's Europeans and although she did win the last Nations Cup, it was the weakest field in the series. 

 

What am I missing? 

Hype from 2017 ?

 

TBH, she was a bit sick in 2023 and she had the second best time of the qualification in 2024. Personally, I'd b very satisfied if she ended up with a medal at Paris (sprint or keirin)

[Walter Egow 0]

List of predictions for Italy, from the most to the least optimistic 

 

Fratellanza Olimpica (very active community on FB and YouTube)

 

17 gold and 56 medals

 

Italian Olympic comitee (CONI)

 

15 gold and 50 medals 

 

OA sport (main website about olympic sports)

 

12 gold and 46 medals

 

Gracenote

 

11 gold and 46 medals 

 

Anything under Tokyo's tally (10 gold and 40 medals) would be a failure. Anything over CONI's prediction (15/50) would be a big achievement.

 

Position wise, 5th in the final tally would be a success. Anything better a triumph. Being 10th or worse would be a disaster 

 

[Faramir 365]

1 hour ago, Walter Egow said:

Italian Olympic comitee (CONI)

 

15 gold and 50 medals 

Where did you read this prediction by CONI?

[dodge 1,024]

Sports Illustrated predictions for every event

 

 

[rafalgorka 1,532]

15 minutes ago, dodge said:

Sports Illustrated predictions for every event

 

 

They say here Ryan Crouser has some problems with an elbow…

[Book 70]

27 minutes ago, dodge said:

Sports Illustrated predictions for every event

 

 

I don't have a sense of every sport to critique these predictions but I'm suspect about the climbing predictions.

Alexander Megos at combined bronze seems like the strangest prediction I've seen. The best he's ever done in this format is 7th? He's a world class lead climber but not anything special in bouldering compared to the other front runners. There's 5 other climbers I'd put in bronze.

Also strange not putting Sam Watson in the medal table for speed. He's a world record holder this year. Speed climbing is impossible to predict, but no one would question putting the record holder in the medal table. 

Predicting this is very hard, but if discrediting medal predictions is your cup of tea there is some evidence that they didn't do all the homework on this one.

Edited July 22 by Book