Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[De_Gambassi 1,225]

 

Archery

Full team guaranteed as host nation. 6 athletes

 

Artistic Swimming

Full team guaranteed. 8 athletes

 

Athletics

Depends of the national federation policy Will they open the selection or not ? I think, they will kinda of being forced to do so. 50-75 athletes

 

Badminton

One male, one female in single are guaranteed. The Giquel-Delrue pair should be in and possibly the Popov brothers in men's double. 4-5 athletes

 

Basketball

Both 5*5 teams are in. We'are also guaranteed one 3*3 team. Hopefully, the women 3*3 team should qualify via ranking, then it will be a 50-50 for the male team. 28-32 athletes.

 

Beach Volleyball

Here, we will get an extra quota even if we manage to qualify one pair. That's nice  . I believe there is a decent chance one of the male's pair qualify by itself. 4-6 athletes

 

Boxing

The early AIBA draft gave us 7 olympic spots (4 males and 3 women). If it stands, I don't think, we would be able to qualify more boxers than that. 7 athletes

 

Breaking

Don't know, don't care. We are guaranteed one male and one female. So there is that. 2 athletes.

 

Canoeing-Sprint

I think, we are guaranteed 4 spots in the C1 and K1 men and women race regardless of other qualified boats ? If true, I'm not sure the federation will use these quotas. 6-12 athletes

 

Canoeing-Slalom

Will we have an extra quota in this new urban canoeing discipline ? The question is big, the excitement is great (it is not). 4-6 athletes

 

Cycling-Track

A Full team seams on the horizon tbh, then it depends who will run the team pursuit and the madisson/omnium races 14-16 athletes

 

Cycling-Road

As of now, we would send a full team. We should remain in the UCI Top 5 male's ranking at least. 7-8 athletes

 

Cycling-BMX

Freestyle will give us 2 athletes. Racing, probably, like in Tokyo, 5 athletes. 6-8 Athletes

 

Cycling-MTB

Full team definitely. Unfortunately, these days, that only means 4 quotas. 4 athletes

 

Diving

One spot guaranteed in every individual discipline. We couldn't ask for more. 8 athletes

 

Equestrian

Full team guaranteed. 9 Athletes

 

Fencing

As it stands, every teams would qualify to Paris. We also have 6 extra home nation quotas to be distributed as we wish if we fail to do so. Very likely, we will have a full team: 18 athletes.

 

Field Hockey

Both teams are guaranteed. 32 Athletes

 

Football

Both teams are guaranteed. 36 Athletes

 

Golf

I'm guessing, 2 guys and 2 girls like in Rio and Tokyo ? 4 athletes.

 

Gymnastics-Artistic

The woman team should qualify, not so much the male one. It will be a bit sad no to have both teams in Paris, but c'est la vie. In worst case scenario, one male gymnast is guaranteed to participate. 6-7 athletes

 

Gymnastics-Rhythmic

An almost full team is guaranteed. Theoretically, we could have an second individual gymnast, but that's not going to happen. 6 athletes

 

Gymnastics-Trampoline

Only one spot (male or female) is guaranteed. Hopefully, we could qualify one representative of each. 1-2 athletes

 

Handball

Both teams are guaranteed. 28 Athletes

 

Judo

Full team guaranteed. 14 Athletes

 

Modern Pentathlon

Probably a full team. 4 athletes

 

Rowing

I expect a very similar team that the one we had in Tokyo (5 boats and 12 rowers). 8 -16 athletes

 

Rugby 7's

Both teams are guaranteed. 24 Athletes

 

Sailing

Full team guaranteed. 14 Athletes

 

Shooting

We are guaranteed one shooter in every individual disciplines, but I would be very disappointed if we didn't qualify any extra shooter. 14-18 athletes

 

Skateboarding

1 boy, 1 girl in Park and in Street. That's what we have been given to, and that's what we should settle for. 4 athletes

 

Sport Climbing

1 quota per discipline is guaranteed. I think, we could look for extra quotas in the combined event, less so in the speed one. 5-7 athletes.

 

Surfing

One of the very few sports where we could have a smaller team than in Tokyo. 2-4 athletes.

 

Swimming

We had only 25 swimmers in Tokyo. This will certainly be a larger team. 30-35 athletes.

 

Table Tennis

Full team guaranteed. 6 Athletes

 

Taekwondo

4 spots are already safe (2 men, and 2 women). Only the women could potentially top that. 4-5 athletes.

 

Tennis

We are used to send a full team at the Olympics, but this time, it might be different. 8-12 athletes 

 

Triathlon

I can't see how we could not have 3 men qualified. Women are more a question mark. 5-6 athletes

 

Volleyball

Both teams are guaranteed. 24 Athletes

 

Basketball

Both teams are guaranteed. 24 Athletes

 

Weightlifting

4 spots are guaranteed (2 males and 2 females). Maybe, we could qualify an extra female quota. 4-5 athletes.

 

Wrestling

No host nation quotas here  There is a scenario where there could be no home wrestlers at Paris 2024. Unlikely but still...  1-4 athletes

 

 

Total : 496 - 568 athletes

[DaniSRB 899]

how exciting qualifications for the French

[Vektor 3,326]

 Hungary

 

Honestly, I don't have much of a clue in many sports, but let's try this anyway.

 

Archery

• Tokyo: 1 quota
• Paris: 0-1 quota

That quota for Tokyo was a shocker for me, I have no idea if it can be repeated, I never watch archery outside of the Games.

 

Athletics

• Tokyo: 18 quotas
• Paris: 17-19 quotas

We usually get the same amount of athletics quotas recently, I don't see any major difference this time. Maybe the 2023 WCh in Budapest can help?

 

Badminton

• Tokyo: 2 quotas
• Paris: 0-2 quotas

No idea if these quotas can be repeated again. Sárosi and Krausz are getting old, I am not sure if they have the strength to qualify. 

 

Basketball - 3x3

• Tokyo: 0 quotas
• Paris: 0-4 quotas

We got very close last time so... maybe? But I wouldn't hold my breath...

 

Boxing

• Tokyo: 1 quota
• Paris: 0-1 quota

Maybe by some miracle someone will qualify, but Hungarian boxing is kinda dead, just like the sport itself at the Games.

 

Canoeing - Slalom

• Tokyo: 0 quota
• Paris: 0-1 quota

We somehow qualified one athlete for Tokyo but then she decided to not compete because she wasn't vaccinated. Maybe we can qualify an athlete again? I don't know.

 

Canoeing - Sprint

• Tokyo: 16 quotas
• Paris: 11-17 quotas

We should get an almost full team, but there's always a chance for a disaster with the male K4 boat...

 

Cycling - Mountain Bike

• Tokyo: 2 quotas
• Paris 1-2 quotas

I can only assume that Vas will qualify at the very least. 

 

Cycling - Road

• Tokyo: 1 quota
• Paris: 1-2 quotas

I feel like Hungarian cycling has been improving, so maybe we get more quotas this time?

 

Fencing

• Tokyo: 10 quotas
• Paris: 7-11 quotas

I think we will qualify 2 or 3 teams.

 

Gymnastics - Artistic

• Tokyo: 1 quota
• Paris: 1-2 quotas

Maybe there's enough improvement for a male quota this time?

 

Gymnastics - Rhythmic

• Tokyo: 1 quota
• Paris: 0-1 quota

Can this quota be repeated? I have no idea.

 

Handball

• Tokyo: 14 quotas
• Paris: 0-28 quotas

I think it's more likely that both teams will fail than to see both in Paris. But you can never know.

 

Judo

• Tokyo: 7 quotas
• Paris: 5-9 quotas

It's hard to tell how the next two years will go for us.

 

Modern Pentathlon

• Tokyo: 4 quotas
• Paris: 3-4 quotas

Most likely a full team again.

 

Rowing

• Tokyo: 1 quota
• Paris: 0-1 quota

Maybe we get our one boat per Games again?

 

Sailing

• Tokyo: 4 quotas
• Paris: 2-3 quotas

I think there will be less quotas for us, but maybe I am wrong.

 

Shooting

• Tokyo: 4 quotas
• Paris: 3-4 quotas

Maybe we get the same as last time?

 

Swimming

• Tokyo: 34 quotas
• Paris: 33-37 quotas

Probably around the same as last time.

 

Table Tennis

• Tokyo: 6 quotas
• Paris: 3-4 quotas

I very much doubt that we will qualify the women's team again.

 

Taekwondo

• Tokyo: 1 quota
• Paris: 0-1 quota

Maybe Salim will be back?

 

Tennis

• Tokyo: 0 quotas
• Paris: 0-1 quota

We got very unlucky with injuries in Tokyo and our top tennis players got weaker since Tokyo. Maybe someone will qualify.

 

Triathlon

• Tokyo: 4 quotas
• Paris: 2-4 quotas

Will the relay qualify again?

 

Water polo

• Tokyo: 24 quotas
• Paris: 12-24 quotas

Losing one of our teams would be a disaster but it's always possible.

 

Weightlifting

• Tokyo: 1 quota
• Paris: 0 quotas

I think Hungarian weightlifting is officially dead.

 

Wrestling

• Tokyo: 6 quotas
• Paris: 4-6 quotas

Not sure what are our chances now that the Lőrincz brothers retired.

 

Artistic Swimming, Basketball, Beach Volleyball, Breaking, Cycling - BMX, Cycling - Track, Diving, Equestrian, Field Hockey, Football, Golf, Gymnastics - Trampoline, Rugby Sevens, Skateboarding, Sport Climbing, Surfing, Volleyball

• Tokyo: 0 quota
• Paris: 0 quota

I would be very shocked if we would qualify anyone in these disciplines. Please tell me if I overlooked some quota chance for us.

 

 

Prediction: 105-189 quotas => 150 quotas

 

So it will be somewhere in between the two extremes as usual, which would be 150 quotas. That would be 20 less than Tokyo, which seems right, I think Hungarian sport is experiencing a decline. But I hope that i am wrong. 

[dcro 10,210]

2 hours ago, Vektor said:

Artistic Swimming, Basketball, Beach Volleyball, Breaking, Cycling - BMX, Cycling - Track, Diving, Equestrian, Field Hockey, Football, Golf, Gymnastics - Trampoline, Rugby Sevens, Skateboarding, Sport Climbing, Surfing, Volleyball

• Tokyo: 0 quota
• Paris: 0 quota

I would be very shocked if we would qualify anyone in these disciplines. Please tell me if I overlooked some quota chance for us.

Without Russia, Hungary is the current favorite for the Group C quota in team dressage. Well, it was already a close battle with Russia last year, but without them, the main competition should now come from Lithuania and Poland.

 

Nothing is guaranteed, but Hungary does have a decent number of riders out there, including some who are staying very competitive at the European Under-25 Championships (which are being staged this week in Hungary).

[Vektor 3,326]

1 minute ago, dcro said:

Without Russia, Hungary is the current favorite for the Group C quota in team dressage. Well, it was already a close battle with Russia last year, but without them, the main competition should now come from Lithuania and Poland.

 

Nothing is guaranteed, but Hungary does have a decent number of riders out there, including some who are staying very competitive at the European Under-25 Championships (which are being staged this week in Hungary).

Huh, that sure would be quite something. We haven't qualified in dressage since 1936. And the 1996 Olympics were the last time that we qualified for any equestrian event (eventing). 

[phelps 7,741]

According to the results of this and last year, this is my (quite realistic for most sports, I think) prediction for  Italy

 

Archery
Hopefully this time we won't miss out on the full team. 6 athletes

 
Artistic Swimming
Unfortunately, full team is a serious threat. 8 athletes

 
Athletics
Difficult to make projections right now, it depends a lot on the relays. 
If we're gonna have all 4 (5, Mixed 4*400m included, which doesn't change the total number of specialists), it's already 26/28 people already (Hurdles specialists included, who might be used also for the relays).
Then, we could add about 10 track runners, 5/6 Race Walk specialists, at least a couple Marathon runners and 12/15 Field specialists. 52/60 athletes

 
Badminton
I think we're going to miss out completely, here. 0 athletes

 
Basketball
I fear we won't repeat the Tokyo miracle (when we had the men's 5*5 team and the women's 3*3's). 
But I still hope the 5*5 men can pull out some more magic. 0/12 athletes.

 
Beach Volleyball
2 men's teams and 1 women's should be safe, maybe we have a chance for the second women's pair, too and make it a full set. 6/8 athletes

 
Boxing
4 girls should qualify easily (barred any political robbery, which is always behind the corner in this sport). 
And this time I expect also the men taking their revenge after the Tokyo shame and qualify at least 3/4 guys. 7/8 athletes

Breaking
I don't care. But I know that at the last World Champs we had a girl in the top 4, so maybe she can do it again. 1 athlete

 
Canoeing-Sprint
Men's C1 & C2 should qualify. I hope we can get also the men's K1. Very difficult for the men's K2, no chance for the men's K4 and the women. 4/6 athletes

 
Canoeing-Slalom
Full set in the 4 traditional competitions should be no problem this time. I don't know if we can get an extra quota in the men's Extreme. 4/5 athletes

Cycling-Track
Full set of 5 in both the men and women's Endurance divisions. I don't know if an extra-man is allowed when also the Madison pair is in?
Miriam Vece in the women's Sprint division. And hopefully at least 1 guy in the men's Sprint division. 12/14 athletes
 

Cycling-Road
Full team or riots. Possibly an extra-man for the Time Trial event. 8/9 athletes
 

Cycling-BMX
Hopefully 1 or 2 men in the Racing division. Luckily, no chance in Freestyle. 1/2 athletes

Cycling-MTB
Full team , most likely. Unfortunately, these days, that only means 4 quotas. 4 athletes

Diving
2 men and 2 women (if Bertocchi can stay healthy) in the Springboard events. Only 1 man and 1 woman in the Platform events, I fear. 6 athletes

Equestrian
Hopefully the 3 guys in the Eventing competition. At least 1 in Show Jumping (hoping that this time it's Lorenzo De Luca); very small chance to have the full team. 
No chance in Dressage (it looks that we don't even compete anymore on the international stage in this discipline, which isn't that bad for me). 4/6 athletes

Fencing
Full team or more than riots. 18 (24 with the reserves, even if they're not originally registered at the Olympic Village unless they actually play a part in the team events) athletes

Field Hockey
No chance among the men; very, very remote chance among the women. Realistic prediction, 0 athletes

Football
Super-slim chance for the girls; hopefully this time we can get back to the Olympics with the boys, as competition doesn't seem so strong. Realistic prediction, 18 athletes

 
Golf
2 men for sure; most likely also 2 women (1 should be a lock). 3/4 athletes

 
Gymnastics-Artistic
The women's team is a lock; hopefully this time also the guys can make it with the full team. 10 athletes

Gymnastics-Rhythmic
Full team or riots. 7 athletes

 
Gymnastics-Trampoline
I don't care, but I read that we have a new raising super-star among the women (she won this year's junior Europeans with scores that would have given her a place right behind the senior medallists). 0/1 athlete

Handball
Both teams are a joke. 0 athletes

 
Judo
Hopefully 5 men and 4 women, maybe 1 more athlete through the Continental repechage quota. 9/10 athletes

 
Modern Pentathlon
2 women should be safe; 1 or 2 men is possible (but not a lock at all). 2/4 athletes

 
Rowing
All the men's boats and at least 3 women's crews, maybe 4. 30/34 athletes

 
Rugby 7's
Let's be serious! 0 athletes

 
Sailing
Men and women's ILCA (only because of the very high number of quota places available), women's 49er FX, men and women's iQFoil, men and women's Kite, Mixed 470 and Nacra 17. 12 Athletes

 
Shooting
Full team in Shotgun or more than more than riots.
at least 3 men in the Pistol disciplines; at least 1 man and 1 woman in the Rifle discipline. At least 13 athletes

 
Skateboarding
If we get 1 representative in total we're lucky. 0/1 athlete

 
Sport Climbing
2 women and 1 man in the Combined event. At least 1 man in the Speed discipline. Hopefully, some more. 4-7 athletes

 
Surfing
If we get 1 representative in total we're lucky. 0/1 athlete

 
Swimming
Also here the relays play a big role in terms of number of athletes qualified. My guess is 4 (+ the Mixed sh*t) for Italy. And the women's 4*100m Freestyle just on the edge
Therefore, I think 21/22 men and 8/13 women are a safe bet. 29-35 athletes

 
Table Tennis
Hopefully we get 1 quota place among the women. 0/1 athlete

 
Taekwondo
2 men should be a lock. But I hope we can get 3 or 4. A single quota place among the women would be a huge success. 2/5 athletes

Tennis
Full team among the men (hoping that Sinner and Berrettini this time want to play the Olympic tournament). Hopefully 1 or 2 women, too (but it's gonna be difficult). 4/6 athletes 

Triathlon
I think that in the end we'll get a quota place with the Mixed Relay, which means 2 men and 2 women in total. There's also a slim chance to get a 3rd man. 4/5 athletes

Volleyball
Both teams should be a lock. 24 Athletes

 

Waterpolo

Both teams should qualify this time. 26 athletes

 
Weightlifting
3 men (61kg, 73kg, 89kg) and 2 or 3 women (49kg, 59kg, maybe also 71kg) should be within our reach. 4-5 athletes

 
Wrestling
2 Greco-Roman and 2 men's Freestyle quota places are the max we can get, I fear. And it's already an optimistic prediction. 2/4 athletes

 

 

Total : 344 - 401 athletes

[Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo 142]

17 minutes ago, phelps said:

According to the results of this and last year, this is my (quite realistic for most sports, I think) prediction for  Italy

 

Archery
Hopefully this time we won't miss out on the full team. 6 athletes

 
Artistic Swimming
Unfortunately, full team is a serious threat. 8 athletes

 
Athletics
Difficult to make projections right now, it depends a lot on the relays. 
If we're gonna have all 4 (5, Mixed 4*400m included, which doesn't change the total number of specialists), it's already 26/28 people already (Hurdles specialists included, who might be used also for the relays).
Then, we could add about 10 track runners, 5/6 Race Walk specialists, at least a couple Marathon runners and 12/15 Field specialists. 52/60 athletes

 
Badminton
I think we're going to miss out completely, here. 0 athletes

 
Basketball
I fear we won't repeat the Tokyo miracle (when we had the men's 5*5 team and the women's 3*3's). 
But I still hope the 5*5 men can pull out some more magic. 0/12 athletes.

 
Beach Volleyball
2 men's teams and 1 women's should be safe, maybe we have a chance for the second women's pair, too and make it a full set. 6/8 athletes

 
Boxing
4 girls should qualify easily (barred any political robbery, which is always behind the corner in this sport). 
And this time I expect also the men taking their revenge after the Tokyo shame and qualify at least 3/4 guys. 7/8 athletes

Breaking
I don't care. But I know that at the last World Champs we had a girl in the top 4, so maybe she can do it again. 1 athlete

 
Canoeing-Sprint
Men's C1 & C2 should qualify. I hope we can get also the men's K1. Very difficult for the men's K2, no chance for the men's K4 and the women. 4/6 athletes

 
Canoeing-Slalom
Full set in the 4 traditional competitions should be no problem this time. I don't know if we can get an extra quota in the men's Extreme. 4/5 athletes

Cycling-Track
Full set of 5 in both the men and women's Endurance divisions. I don't know if an extra-man is allowed when also the Madison pair is in?
Miriam Vece in the women's Sprint division. And hopefully at least 1 guy in the men's Sprint division. 12/14 athletes
 

Cycling-Road
Full team or riots. Possibly an extra-man for the Time Trial event. 8/9 athletes
 

Cycling-BMX
Hopefully 1 or 2 men in the Racing division. Luckily, no chance in Freestyle. 1/2 athletes

Cycling-MTB
Full team , most likely. Unfortunately, these days, that only means 4 quotas. 4 athletes

Diving
2 men and 2 women (if Bertocchi can stay healthy) in the Springboard events. Only 1 man and 1 woman in the Platform events, I fear. 6 athletes

Equestrian
Hopefully the 3 guys in the Eventing competition. At least 1 in Show Jumping (hoping that this time it's Lorenzo De Luca); very small chance to have the full team. 
No chance in Dressage (it looks that we don't even compete anymore on the international stage in this discipline, which isn't that bad for me). 4/6 athletes

Fencing
Full team or more than riots. 18 (24 with the reserves, even if they're not originally registered at the Olympic Village unless they actually play a part in the team events) athletes

Field Hockey
No chance among the men; very, very remote chance among the women. Realistic prediction, 0 athletes

Football
Super-slim chance for the girls; hopefully this time we can get back to the Olympics with the boys, as competition doesn't seem so strong. Realistic prediction, 18 athletes

 
Golf
2 men for sure; most likely also 2 women (1 should be a lock). 3/4 athletes

 
Gymnastics-Artistic
The women's team is a lock; hopefully this time also the guys can make it with the full team. 10 athletes

Gymnastics-Rhythmic
Full team or riots. 7 athletes

 
Gymnastics-Trampoline
I don't care, but I read that we have a new raising super-star among the women (she won this year's junior Europeans with scores that would have given her a place right behind the senior medallists). 0/1 athlete

Handball
Both teams are a joke. 0 athletes

 
Judo
Hopefully 5 men and 4 women, maybe 1 more athlete through the Continental repechage quota. 9/10 athletes

 
Modern Pentathlon
2 women should be safe; 1 or 2 men is possible (but not a lock at all). 2/4 athletes

 
Rowing
All the men's boats and at least 3 women's crews, maybe 4. 30/34 athletes

 
Rugby 7's
Let's be serious! 0 athletes

 
Sailing
Men and women's ILCA (only because of the very high number of quota places available), women's 49er FX, men and women's iQFoil, men and women's Kite, Mixed 470 and Nacra 17. 12 Athletes

 
Shooting
Full team in Shotgun or more than more than riots.
at least 3 men in the Pistol disciplines; at least 1 man and 1 woman in the Rifle discipline. At least 13 athletes

 
Skateboarding
If we get 1 representative in total we're lucky. 0/1 athlete

 
Sport Climbing
2 women and 1 man in the Combined event. At least 1 man in the Speed discipline. Hopefully, some more. 4-7 athletes

 
Surfing
If we get 1 representative in total we're lucky. 0/1 athlete

 
Swimming
Also here the relays play a big role in terms of number of athletes qualified. My guess is 4 (+ the Mixed sh*t) for Italy. And the women's 4*100m Freestyle just on the edge
Therefore, I think 21/22 men and 8/13 women are a safe bet. 29-35 athletes

 
Table Tennis
Hopefully we get 1 quota place among the women. 0/1 athlete

 
Taekwondo
2 men should be a lock. But I hope we can get 3 or 4. A single quota place among the women would be a huge success. 2/5 athletes

Tennis
Full team among the men (hoping that Sinner and Berrettini this time want to play the Olympic tournament). Hopefully 1 or 2 women, too (but it's gonna be difficult). 4/6 athletes 

Triathlon
I think that in the end we'll get a quota place with the Mixed Relay, which means 2 men and 2 women in total. There's also a slim chance to get a 3rd man. 4/5 athletes

Volleyball
Both teams should be a lock. 24 Athletes

 

Waterpolo

Both teams should qualify this time. 26 athletes

 
Weightlifting
3 men (61kg, 73kg, 89kg) and 2 or 3 women (49kg, 59kg, maybe also 71kg) should be within our reach. 4-5 athletes

 
Wrestling
2 Greco-Roman and 2 men's Freestyle quota places are the max we can get, I fear. And it's already an optimistic prediction. 2/4 athletes

 

 

Total : 344 - 401 athletes

Agree with many predictions, i write the differences

Archery
I think is very difficult for women's team, this time. 4 for me

Basket 
We have a good women's team, i'm confident. 12, 50% for women, 50% for men.

Equestrian 
Team in show jumping is not impossible, many european teams have pass. If BEL or SUI take it at nations cup final, we have many chances.

 

[Rafa Maciel 1,597]

 

Archery

One of the sports where the delay of the Asian games will potentially have an impact on qualification prospects. Both the men’s and women’s teams should be able to qualify but the men’s team lacks consistency. The women’s team is well placed in the world ranking list so even if they miss out through the qualifying tournaments, they would still qualify via their ranking.

 

Total: 3-6 Athletes

 

 

Artistic Swimming

Artistic swimming has never really been a priority for British Swimming but there are signs that is beginning to change slightly, including the creation of a new High Performance Centre last year. For the first time since 2013, GB entered the team event at the World Championships where by all accounts, they performed solidly finishing 12^th in the Free routine and 9^th in the Technical final. The team were also in Rome where they finished 6^th and 7^th.

 

Currently, the team’s routines are about 3-5 points adrift of what they would need to be if they were looking to qualify for the team event. Instead, the best chance of qualifying likely to come from the duet.

 

Total 0-2 Athletes

 

 

Athletics

Athletics has always thrown up some controversial decisions when it comes to selections because UK Athletics has historically applied a fairly rigid selection criteria and, if they don’t believe you’ll make a final, they’re not wildly keen on selecting you.

 

World Athletics haven’t published their qualifying standard yet, but based on what we’ve seen for Budapest ’23, it’s clear that they want to prioritise qualification through ranking rather than through qualifying times/distances. Assuming that British Athletics applies same criteria as they did for Eugene World Championships there will be athletes who will have legitimate claim to go who will be left at home.

 

Total: 65-80 Athletes

 

 

Badminton

Qualification window doesn’t open until May 2023 but based on current world ranking lists and assuming that nobody retires in the intervening period, we should qualify in all of the events – Toby Penty and Kirsty Gilmour in the Singles; Chloe Birch and Lauren Smith in Women’s Doubles; Marcus Ellis and Lauren Smith for Mixed Doubles; and Ben Lane and Sean Vendy in Men’s Doubles.

 

Given the qualification criteria – the need to be in the top 8 (doubles) or top 16 (singles) – I would say the only realistic prospect of getting multiple qualification berths would be in the Men’s Doubles with Marcus Ellis & Chris Langridge but it is unlikely.

 

Total: 7-8 Athletes

 

 

Basketball

It’s possible that both teams will make the grade to participate in the Pre-Qualifying/Qualifying Tournaments, but they are unlikely to make much headway.

 

Total: 0 Athletes

 

3x3 Basketball

Given the performance at Commonwealth games, there is a 3x3 presence within Britain but not exactly visible. Given the restricted nature of the both the Olympic field and the qualification pathway, it is difficult to see how Team GB could qualify.

 

Total: 0 Athletes

 

 

Beach Volleyball

Only realistic prospect for qualification would be with the Bello twins in the Men’s competition but it is a bit of a longshot. Their best chance for qualification will come through the Olympic ranking with 17 spots up for grabs. Their current world ranking is 54 which would put them into 42^nd in the race to Paris. Unfortunately, one of them suffered a fractured hand at a tournament this month which will sideline them for a few weeks and prevent them picking up additional ranking points ahead of the opening of the qualifying window in January.

 

To have a realistic chance of qualifying, they will need to start consistently qualifying for, and scoring points at the Elite 16 level events.

 

Total: 0-2 Athletes

 

 

Boxing

British boxers performed pretty well at the recent Commonwealth Games so have a decent squad to target qualification. Based on the last few cycles, Team Gb have qualified 10-12 Boxers and at this stage, there’s no reason to think we wouldn’t repeat that for Paris.

 

Total: 10-12 Athletes

 

 

Breaking

God only knows why this has been elevated to an Olympic sport. Don't know, don't care. According to Team GB website, “some of the best b-boys and b-girls in the world are British” – this isn’t reflected in the world rankings though so not sure how true the statement is and to be honest, I don’t really care.

 

Total: 0-2 Athletes

 

 

Canoeing-Sprint

For a nation that has a strong track record in the water-based sports, we don’t perform all that well in sprint canoe even though we have a pretty good para-canoe team.

 

Based on the world championship results from this year, I think we have realistic prospects of qualifying for the women’s K2 and K4 events but I don’t see anything to suggest there will be many on the men’s side.

 

Total: 2-6 Athletes

 

 

Canoeing-Slalom

Team GB will be well placed to qualify across all 6 events but it is likely that athletes will be doubling up across the events. On the women’s side I would guess that Mallory Franklin and Kimberly Woods will make the team alongside Joe Clarke. Not sure who the 2 guy would be, but probably Adam Burgess.

 

Total: 2-4 Athletes

 

 

Cycling-Track

The qualification window opened in July and as it currently stands, Team GB is in a strong position to be able to qualify a full team – they seem to have been able to put together a consistent Women’s Sprint Team which was previously the weak link in the team. This doesn’t have a huge impact in terms of the overall size of the squad, however it would mean that we would have two athletes riding in the Women’s Sprint and in the Women’s Keirin.

 

Total: 14-16 Athletes

 

Cycling – Road

The British men are not that far off getting full quota of 4 riders for the road race but chances are they won’t be able to push their world ranking high enough so will end up with team of 3. They will probably end up with 2 athletes in the Time Trial.

 

On the women’s side, the British ranking is heading in the wrong direction. As it currently stands, they would only qualify a team of 2 for the road race with 1 rider going in the Time Trial.

 

Total: 5-7 Athletes

 

Cycling-BMX Racing

Qualification opened this month and based on current world ranking, Team GB should be well placed to secure 2 spots for both men and women this time around. The depth of the field on the men’s side is pretty good but on the women’s side, it is largely dependent on Bethany Schriever’s performances – if she gets injured then it’s not impossible that GBR could drop down the rankings.

 

Total: 2-4 Athletes

 

Cycling-BMX Freestyle

Far and away, this is the worst qualification procedure I’ve seen and whoever was involved in drafting and signing off on it should have been dismissed. I appreciate that they are trying to prioritise the Olympic Qualifier Series but the way that they have gone about it is absolutely ridiculous. Athletes could have to wait 18 months between performance and confirmation that they have secured qualification.

 

Anyhow, Team GB have a reasonably strong team in this discipline and should be well place to qualify at least a couple of spots.

 

Total: 2-4 Athletes

 

Cycling-MTB

Similar to BMX Racing, quotas will be based on ranking lists. Both men and women should be reasonably comfortable in qualifying 1 quota for both the men’s and women’s events. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that GBR ranking will move in to the top 8 thereby securing a second quota but that is going to be largely dependent on the performances of Tom Pidcock and Evie Richards.

 

Total: 2-4 Athletes

 

 

Diving

In the synchronised events, based on recent performances, Team GB should qualify in both the Men’s Springboard and Platform synchro events. The women’s results at the world championships weren’t as strong so it is likely to be more of a struggle for them. At this stage, I’d expect them to be OK for the platform but will miss out on the Springboard.

 

Individually, I think we would get quota for the men and the women should have at least 1 in each discipline.

 

The fact that we will likely have a lot doubling up in individual and synchro events will limit the overall size of the team.

 

Total: 6-8 Athletes

 

 

Equestrian

With qualification secured for both dressage and show jumping, barring any major disasters, Team GB should be able to complete their equestrian qualification next month at the Eventing World Championships.

 

Total: 9 Athletes

 

 

Fencing

With the majority of GBR teams languishing in the high teens/mid twentys in terms of world ranking, can’t see any scenario where Team GB are able to qualify for any of the team events. The best hope for qualification will be for a couple of individual spots but it will be tough.

 

Total: 0-2 Athletes

 

 

Field Hockey

Both the men’s and women’s teams have qualified for the 2023 EuroHockey tournament which is the first opportunity to qualify for Paris but to do so would require them to win the tournament which, while not impossible, is unlikely.

 

That would mean that in order to qualify, Team GB will need to go into the qualifying tournament. The change in format compared to Tokyo will make it more complicated and a lot will depend on the teams that they are drawn against. Both should make it through but their performances at the Nations Cup have shown that they can be derailed by lower ranked opposition.

 

Total: 0-32 Athletes

 

 

Football

I’ve seen nothing to suggest that the Welsh and Scottish FAs have withdrawn their objection to fielding a men’s team. On the women’s side, Team GB were in Tokyo after an agreement across the home nations but not sure that a similar agreement has been reached for Paris.

 

Annoyingly, UEFA don’t have a high enough regard for the quality of the Women’s European Championship to believe that it warrants being the route for qualification for Paris. Instead, they are likely to use next year’s World Cup with England needing to finish as one of the top two European countries. Of course, had they used the Women’s Euros 2022 as the qualifying tournament then Team GB would already be qualified alongside Germany.

 

Total: 0-18 Athletes

 

 

Golf

Should be same as Tokyo – 2 men and 2 women.

 

Total: 2-4 Athletes

 

 

Gymnastics – Artistic

Both teams will qualify – it’s just a question of whether either are able to do so at the 2023 World Championships in Liverpool later this year or will they qualify at next year’s tournament.

 

The men’s team probably have the best chance to qualify this year but it is likely to be a fight with the USA for the third spot behind China and Japan. As I said though, if they don’t manage it this year, they should be able to do it via the 2023 World Championships. The biggest question will be whether Max Whitlock makes the team – Joe Fraser, Jake Jarman and Courtney Tulloch are likely nailed on for selection, injury permitting. Whitlock would therefore need to take the place of either James Hall or Giarnni Regini-Moran. If I was going to take a guess at this stage, Hall would be the most likely to lose out.

 

On the women’s side, in recent years they seem to have fallen behind Italy and I don’t see that changing even with home field advantage in Liverpool. China, USA and Italy will probably take the team quotas this year but Team GB should be fine in 2023.

 

Total: 10 Athletes

 

Gymnastics-Rhythmic

Team GB didn’t qualify for the team event at next month’s world championship and there is no reason to suspect that they will be able to qualify in 2023. They will probably be targeting qualifying an individual spot using Marfa Ekimova but it’s a longshot.

 

Total: 0-1 Athletes

 

Gymnastics-Trampoline

Team GB had 2 quotas in the women’s event in Tokyo but didn’t qualify in the men’s event. For Paris, Zak Perzamanos has a decent chance of qualifying in the men’s event and Bryony Page should also take a spot. Just now, can’t see route to securing a second quota in either event but not beyond the realms of possibility.

 

Total: 1-3 Athletes

 

 

Handball

GBR haven’t been able to capitalise on the sport’s popularity during London 2012 and I can’t see any evidence that the senior teams have been active for the last couple of years. Our junior team that has been taking part in international competitions but they are a long way off getting to level of challenging for qualification.

 

Total: 0 Athletes

 

 

Judo

Our judokas have been the victim of either inconsistency or bad luck in the early stages of the qualification window but I still expect Team GB to qualify a decent number of places with the majority of them coming in the women’s events:

 

Women’s -48Kg: Amy Platten – Has a chance, but is unlikely to make the grade on the ranking list

Women’s -52Kg: Chelsie Giles – Has had a few mixed results since the qualification window opened but should still be good enough to qualify

Women’s -57Kg: Acelya Toprak – Has been frustratingly inconsistent. Don’t think she will make it into top 17 for auto qualification but could make it in on continental ranking.

Women’s -63Kg: Lucy Renshall – World number 1 but has been injured. Expected to make comeback for World Championships. Would still expect her to qualify.

Women’s -70Kg: Kelly Petersen Pollard – Has had a couple of decent results so far in the qualification window and has a good chance of qualifying.

Women’s -78Kg: Natalie Powell/Emma Reid – One of the few weight divisions where Team GB have a couple of judokas in contention.  Am expecting one of them to qualify.

Women’s +78Kg: Sarah Adlington – Not sure what Adlington’s plans are but she did compete and win at the Commonwealth Games. If she has the appetite to target Paris, she definitely has the ability to manage it.

 

Men’s -60Kg: Sam Hall – Could have a chance of qualifying but needs to have some decent results at the bigger tournaments

Men’s -81Kg: Lachlan Moorhead – Has competed a few tournaments already in the qualifying window with mixed results. If he can get some consistency, he could squeak qualification.

Men’s -90Kg: Jamal Petgrave – Would need a big step up in performance if he wants to qualify.

Men’s -100Kg: Harry Lovell-Hewitt – Like Petgrave, would need a couple of big performances if he is going to qualify.

Men’s -66Kg, -73Kg & +100Kg: No real contenders

 

Annoyingly the IJU website tracking qualification ranking points hasn’t been working for the last few weeks making it difficult to keep track of qualifying positions.

 

Total: 4-8 Athletes

 

 

Modern Pentathlon

Jo Choong will probably look to defend his title and his younger brother Henry will look to secure a second quota but he may fall just short. The depth of the team on the women’s side is a little deeper and they should be able to qualify 2 athletes.

 

Total: 2-4 Athletes

 

 

Rowing

Tokyo was a disappointing rowing regatta for Team GB both in terms of the number of boats qualified and the number of medals returned. Results from the recent European Championships gives cause for optimism for improved performance on both metrics.

At the moment, there is a chance that we could qualify all boats across the regatta but in the end, I think it is likely that we would miss out on a couple with the women’s single sculls and men’s double sculls perhaps being the boats most likely to miss out. Also have to say there is some doubt around the women’s eight. It hasn’t raced much this season and at the European championships, was made up of rowers who had doubled up from the pair and four and it has been suggested that they are not planning on entering a women’s eight and the World Championships later in the year.

 

Total: 43-48 Athletes

 

 

Rugby 7's

With a lot of gnashing of teeth, the home nations have merged their individual teams into a single Team GB as they look to secure qualification in the 22/23 Rugby-7s season. Recent results and rankings have all been heading in the wrong direction so qualifying is likely to be an uphill struggle. My heart says that both teams will qualify but my head tells me that neither will.

 

Total: 0-24 Athletes

 

 

Sailing

There has been a few retirements and boat changes since Tokyo, but GBR have traditionally performed well on the water and no reason why we shouldn’t qualify a full team across all boat types.

 

Total: 14 Athletes

 

 

Shooting

Team GB are reasonably strong in the shotgun events and we already have a quota spot for the Women’s Trap from this weekend’s European Shotgun Championship and we were unlucky not to get a second quota via the Men’s Trap. I think we have good chances for 2 more quotas at the Europeans through Amber Hill and Ben Llewellin in the Skeet events. If they were both successful, we would also have a spot in the Mixed Skeet event.

 

I would argue that there is the possibility of further quotas in the Trap events later this year. I expect that through Nathan Hales, Aaron Heading and Matthew Howard-Colley, we should be able to secure 2 quotas for the Men’s Trap whilst Kirsty Hegarty is in with a good shout of securing a second quota in the women’s event.

 

The pistol and rifle events aren’t all that strong for Team GB. I’m not sure what her current form is like, but our best chance for quota spot would lie with Seonaid McIntosh in the 50m Rifle 3 Positions event. If she can get a quota in that event, she would also be able to enter the 10m Rifle event.

 

Total: 4-7 Athletes

 

 

Skateboarding

Sky Brown is the headline name for Team GB in this discipline and I fully expect her to be back in Paris. Looking at the world rankings, I would say there is a possibility that we could also edge qualification in Men’s Park with outside chance of getting into the Men’s Street event.

 

Total: 1-3 Athletes

 

 

Sport Climbing

Not a huge fan of the qualification procedure for the Speed disciple - if you’re going to restrict the field to just 14 athletes, then you should restrict entry to 1 athlete per NOC. Given the limited field, I’d be surprised in a GB athlete squeezes into the mix.

 

For Lead/Boulder discipline, there are a couple of Team GB athletes with the potential for qualification on the men’s side. Am keeping my eye on Max Milne and Hamish McArthur and think 1 could possibly make the cut.

 

Total: 0-1 Athletes

 

 

Surfing

Can’t see a route for Team GB to qualify in either event

 

Total: 0 Athletes

 

 

Swimming

British Swimming incorporate a maximum team size into their selection policy. From what I have seen, they are the only governing body that sets a limit on the number of athletes they will select.

 

Based on the selection policy for Tokyo and this year’s World Championship, the maximum number of athletes that will be selected is likely to be 30.

 

Total: 25-30 Athletes

 

 

Swimming - Marathon

Qualification basically all comes down to your ability to perform in 1 race, so God help you if you are ill during the 2024 World Championships.

 

Chance of 1 quota for both men and women – but equal chance of not being able to secure any quota at all.

 

Total: 0-2 Athletes

 

 

Table Tennis

I think there is a reasonable prospect of the Men’s team qualifying. To do so, they would need to reach the quarter finals of the world team championships in 2024 and the last time this competition was run, England got to quarter final before losing to Sweden. Will have better indication after we see the 2022 results. If they do manage to qualify, it would give them 2 quota spots in the individual event.

 

Unfortunately, the women’s team isn’t as strong and I can’t see a pathway for them to qualify for the team event in 2024. At best they could be in line to qualify a single spot but Tin-Tin Ho is outside the top 100 so it is unlikely to be straightforward.

 

Total: 2-4 Athletes

 

 

Taekwondo

Team GB has a fairly strong women’s Taekwondo team and we should qualify in 3 of the 4 weight classes with Jade Jones, Bianca Walkden and Lauren Williams. But all three will need to be ranked in the top 5 for their weight category at the end of 2023 or, win the Grand Slam Champions Series as it is unlikely that GB would be able to send anyone to the continental qualifying tournament.

 

On the men’s side, Bradley Sinden should qualify by virtue of his ranking position. I assume that would allow GBR to send an athlete to try to qualify a further quota via continental qualifying tournament. With Mahama Cho having retired last year, it would probably be Caden Cunningham in the +80Kg category.

 

Total: 3-5 Athletes

 

 

Tennis

Clay isn’t exactly the favourite surface for the majority of the British players so some may choose to skip it but then again, it is the Olympics so maybe that will be sufficient to draw them in.

 

On the men’s side, Cam Norrie and Dan Evans would be expected to qualify. Jack Draper has had a decent rise up the rankings this year and would also qualify – as would Andy Murray, but I would be very surprised if he elected to go if he is still on the tour in 2024. GB should also get 2 teams in the men’s doubles through Joe Salisbury and Neal Skupski.

 

For the women, a lot depends on Emma Raducanu. She’s currently inside the top 10 but is likely to plummet into the 70s after the US Open. It would likely still be high enough for her to qualify but she hasn’t really been able to capitalise on the success of last year which could then limit the tournaments that she is able to enter next year when the qualification window opens. The only other British woman who could get into qualification spot would be Hariet Dart but would need to see how progresses over the next year. Either way, I don’t see us being in a position to put forward a Women’s Doubles pair and it is unlikely we would qualify for the Mixed doubles.

 

Total: 4-6 Athletes

 

 

Triathlon

Team GB have already secured qualification for the Mixed Relay and have 2 individual quotas for both the men’s and women’s events. In order to secure the third individual spot, we would need 3 athletes inside the top 30 in the Olympic Ranking.

 

On the women’s side, there’s going to be intense competition for places in the team and there is no reason why we shouldn’t be able to secure that third individual quota. The picture is less certain for the men. A lot will depend on whether Jonathan Brownlee is looking to have another tilt at Olympic glory. If he is, then it becomes easier to see scenario where Team GB qualify 3 guys – Brownlee, Barclay Izzard and Alex Yee. If Brownlee decides he’s not targeting Paris, it becomes more difficult to see a path to securing 3 individual spots.

 

Total: 5-6 Athletes

 

 

Volleyball

Don’t actually know if GBR have an elite level volleyball team. If they do, they don’t have a huge amount of presence.

 

Total: 0 Athletes

 

 

Weightlifting

Likely to be one of the sports where Team GB will have reduced representation in Paris. The women’s team is pretty decent and I would expect them to secure the full 3 quotas. At the moment, I can’t see which of the British men would be likely to join them.

 

Total: 0-3 Athletes

 

 

Wrestling

Nothing to see here – I think this is one of the few sports that the BBC don’t even bother to show highlights of.

 

Total: 0 Athletes

 

 

 

Pessimistic Totals – 249 Athletes

 

Optimistic Total – 409 Athletes

 

Realistic Total – 370 - 390 Athletes

[De_Gambassi 1,225]

I see a pattern here 

 

On 8/27/2022 at 3:04 PM, De_Gambassi said:

Breaking

Don't know, don't care. We are guaranteed one male and one female. So there is that. 2 athletes.

 

 

6 hours ago, phelps said:

Breaking
I don't care. But I know that at the last World Champs we had a girl in the top 4, so maybe she can do it again. 1 athlete

44 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Breaking

God only knows why this has been elevated to an Olympic sport. Don't know, don't care. According to Team GB website, “some of the best b-boys and b-girls in the world are British” – this isn’t reflected in the world rankings though so not sure how true the statement is and to be honest, I don’t really care.

 

Total: 0-2 Athletes

 

[Josh 10,830]

Archery-

 

1-2 athletes

 

Artistic Swimming

 

Full team of 8 athletes

 

Athletics

 

60- 65 athletes

 

Basketball

 

The Men's Basketball Team, and Women's Basketball Team will almost certainly make it to the Paris Olympics. We should qualify our Women's 3x3 Team as well, barring any issues. 

 

28 athletes

 

Badminton

 

Probably will qualify an entry for (Men's Singles, Women's Singles, and Women's Doubles). 

 

4 athletes

 

Beach Volleyball

 

Full quota in the women's tournament, and possibly one quota in the men's tournament

 

4-6 athletes

 

Boxing

 

6 athletes

 

Breaking

 

Don't know, and don't care. If we were to qualify it would be in the men's event. 

 

0-1 athletes

 

Canoe-Sprint

 

12-16 athletes

 

Canoe-Slalom

 

Full team, so four athletes.

 

Cycling-Road

 

6 athletes, three male and three female.

 

Cycling-Track

 

10-14 athletes

 

Cycling- BMX

 

2-3 athletes

 

Cycling- Mountain Biking

 

Athletes will probably qualify for cross-country racing, two in the women's event, and two potentially in the men's event

 

2-4 athletes

 

Diving

 

Full team, four male, and six female. 

 

10 athletes

 

Equestrian

 

2 athletes

 

Fencing

 

Two men competing in foil, three women competing in foil, and one women competing in epee

 

Field Hockey

 

Women's Team, and there's a slight chance the men's team can qualify too but frankly don't see that happening. 

 

16 athletes

 

Football

 

Women's Team will most likely qualify, it would take a massive upset happening for them to not beat Jamaica

 

18 athletes

 

Golf

 

2 males, and 2 females probably.

 

4 athletes

 

Gymnastics- Artistic

 

We should qualify a women's team, and bold prediction but I think we will qualify three male athletes

 

7 athletes

 

Gymnastics- Rhythmic

 

With luck maybe, but yeah nope. 

 

0 athletes

 

Gymnastics- Trampoline

 

1 athlete

 

Handball

 

 We won't qualify any teams here.

 

Judo

 

Anywhere from 7-9 athletes would be a safe bet

 

Rowing

 

25-27 athletes

 

Rugby 7's

 

Expecting both the men's and women's teams will qualify

 

26 athletes

 

Sailing

 

5 men, and five women.

 

10 athletes

 

Shooting

 

One quota in women's trap, with an outside shot at one more in the women's air pistol events.

 

1/2 athletes

 

Skateboarding

 

Two athletes in men's street, one athlete in men's park.

 

3 athletes

 

Sport Climbing

 

Sean McColl, and Alannah Yip will qualify. Both should compete in the combined event.

 

2 athletes

 

 

Swimming

 

28-30 athletes

 

Surfing

 

Our Olympic debut in this sport actually. I predict two male, and two female.

 

4 athletes

 

 

Table Tennis

 

We should have an entry for women's singles, men's singles, and mixed doubles. Mo and Wang should qualify, and maybe Jeremy Hazin will too. 

 

Taekwondo

 

5 athletes

 

Tennis

 

Fernandez, Andresscu, Fichman, Dabrowski, Auger- Aliassime and Shapovalov should all qualify. Bouchard, Raonic and Pospisil are wildcards. 

 

6-9 athletes

 

Triathlon

 

Probably will qualify two male, and two female.

 

4 athletes

 

Volleyball

 

I could very well see both teams not qualifying, but at the same time could very well see both qualifying. I'm struggling with this one, but I'm gonna be optimistic and say both teams will book their ticket to Paris. 

 

24 athletes

 

Weightlifting

 

2-4 athletes

 

Wrestling

 

6-8 athletes

 

Waterpolo

 

Our Women (Currently ranked #6), will almost certainly make it. Men will probably not make it, but there's always a chance 

 

12 athletes