Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[intoronto 5,638]

5 hours ago, intoronto said:

I think Colombia had a B team last year if I'm not mistaken.

Sorry but this incorrect. The same teams from Canada and Colombia competed in 2023 and 2024. Canada's time was almost a second slower in 2024 (while Colombia was second faster in 2024 v 2023) 

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

 Viviani leaves Paris-Roubaix on a stretcher - wonder if that will impact his participation in Milton. 

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

Track Cycling Quota Simulation ahead of final qualifying event in Milton.

 

 

As I've said before, I think the team pursuit quotas are now set. The situation for team sprints - both men and women - is still to be finalised.

 

Ahead of Milton kicking off at the weekend, I'll try to take a look at the individual events to see what needs to happen to move the dial for the individual quotas. 

[Laraja 1,494]

Olympic Rankings by Nations updated as of April 9th, 2024

[SalamAkhi 315]

Women's Team Sprint :  needs to beats  by at least 3 spots to qualify. Seems manageable looking at the squads and recent results.

France 3rd behind China and the Netherlands, with  and  ahead of Canada would do the trick. 

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

Before the action kicks off tomorrow, I thought I'd take a look at the individual track events to see if we are likely to see and changes as a result of Milton.

 

Men's Team Pursuit:

Confirmed Quotas:          

 

In my opinion, the Olympic field is set - China could spring a surprise and overtake Belgium, but the two teams have been equally matched across the season so it would seem to be unlikely. At a minimum, China need to finish at least 7th and hope that Belgium have an absolute nightmare in order for them to be in with any real chance. 

 

 

Men's Madison:

Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          

 

Safe Individual Quotas:    

 

Contested Quotas:

 - 4750

 - 4621

---------------

 - 4398

 

All three are counting 2 NC events from 2024 and all have similar discard scores of 10th or 11th. It will be difficult for Switzerland to be able to do enough to overtake Czechia to get into the last quota spot - they'd need to finish at least 8th and keep 3 places between themselves and Czechia. That is something that they have not been able to do so far in the qualification window so it looks like both Austria and Czechia should qualify for Paris. 

 

 

Men's Omnium:

Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          

Expected Quotas from Madison:     

Safe Individual Quotas:    

Continental Quota:  

Contested Quotas:

 - 1432

 - 1394

---------------

 - 1231

 - 1189

 

There is potential for change in the final quotas in this event. Colombia should be safe as they have only competed in 2 NC events across the last 2 years whereas Indonesia is already counting their two 2024 NC events. Kazakhstan will need to finish higher than 16th to be able to overtake Indonesia. Hong Kong may have left themselves with too much to do after their poor result in the 2nd leg of last year's NC. 

 

For the continental quota, Egypt will be safe by virtue of the fact that South Africa are not competing in Milton despite being just 40 points off the quota. 

 

If I was a betting man, I'd say that Colombia and Kazakhstan will likely take the last 2 quotas for the men's endurance events.

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

Women's Endurance events

 

Women's Team Pursuit:

Confirmed Quotas:          

 

 

Women's Madison:

Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          

 

Safe Individual Quotas:    

 

Contested Quotas:

 - 4585

--------------

 - 4482

 - 4262

 

The last quota place should come down to a straightforward fight between Uzbekistan and Hong Kong. Mexico could be in the mix, but they probably have too much to do to be able to close the gap. Uzbekistan are not competing in Milton so it will all come down to what Hong Kong can achieve. Hong Kong will need to finish at least 10th to be able to overtake Uzbekistan. Generally, they have been finishing in the range of 10th-12th so whilst it will be difficult, it's not impossible. 

 

Given I used to live in Hong Kong, I've got my fingers crossed that they are able to do enough to get the final quota.

 

 

Women's Omnium:

Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          

Expected Quotas from Madison:     

Safe Individual Quotas:     

Continental Quota: 

 

Contested Quotas:

 - 2015.50

-----------------

 - 1854.50

 

If Uzbekistan hold on and take the final Madison quota, then there are unlikely to be any contested quotas in the Omnium. Hong Kong would take the final individual quota. 

 

If there is a contested quota, Czechia have quite a high bar in order for them to be able to increase their points total as they would need to finish 9th or better but it's not any easier for Spain because although they have a lower discard score, in order to be able to overtake Czechia they would need to finish at least 10th.  

 

Czechia should therefore be safe for the final quota - but they need Hong Kong to help them out by taking the quota in the Madison. 

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

Previewing the sprint events is going to be more complicated than the endurance side of things but here's my thoughts for what they are worth.

 

Men's Team Sprint:

Confirmed Quotas:       

 

Contested Quotas:

 - 4552.50

---------------------

 - 4530

 - 4507.50

 

Both Poland and Canada should overtake Czechia in Milton as they are both only counting 1 2024 NC event whereas Czechia has 2 and would need to finish higher than 7th in order to increase their score. 

 

The final quota should therefore come down to a straight shoot-out between Poland and Canada. Whoever finishes higher in the event in Milton will take the quota. 

 

In the head-to-heads during the qualifying window, Poland have outperformed Canada in 3 out of the 4 times they have both competed, but the teams are generally well matched. At last year's Milton Nations Cup event, Canada got their best result when finishing 4th. Given the strength of the line-ups we have in Milton this year, it is unlikely they will replicate that, but it is still possible that the home crowd advantage could propel them to a strong finish. 

 

Personally, I am not sure how this one is going to play out but if I have to pick a side, I'd say that Poland likely has the edge. 

 

 

Individual Sprint / Keirin:

2 Individual Quotas Confirmed Through Team Sprint:         (16)

Individual Quotas - Sprint:      (5)

Continental Quota:  (1)

 

Contested Quotas - Sprint:

 - 2697

------------------

 - 2438.50

 

I've been asked previously whether I think there is a chance for  to get an individual quota if they miss out on the team sprint and I have said no, but having done a deeper dive on the numbers, I may have changed my mind, and I can see a (narrow) path for them to get the last quota in the individual sprint. Canada are currently about 250 points behind Colombia - but they have a NC event in hand. If they can finish at least 13th in Milton, they would be able to overtake Colombia and move into the final quota spot assuming that Colombia don't add to their points total. If Colombia finish higher than 13th, then Canada will need to ensure that they finish above them in order to be able to secure the quota. Given the field, it will be tough and a lot will depend on where everyone finishes in the qualifying run. 

 

 

Individual Quotas - Keirin:        (7)

 

The Keirin field looks pretty set - Thailand has gap of about 330 points over  and I don't see that closing in Milton. 

 

In addition to this, we may also see some quota reallocations in the sprint events as I don't think Israel and Suriname will be able to field 2 riders. I'm not sure how the logistics of that will play out. We could see  and  in the mix to receive reallocated quotas.

 

[JoshMartini007 2,536]

7 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

In addition to this, we may also see some quota reallocations in the sprint events as I don't think Israel and Suriname will be able to field 2 riders. I'm not sure how the logistics of that will play out. We could see  and  in the mix to receive reallocated quotas.

 

I think the NOC gets to pick which quota to decline. In a logical world they would keep the event in which they ranked higher, so Israel keeps sprint while Suriname keeps keirin. However, they are ranked similarly in both so I wouldn't be surprised if both choose to keep the same event. I imagine there will be a lot of lobbying from nations on the edge for them to pick the other event.

[Adriano 590]

We have a schedule?