How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (Final Version)

[Ashton 13]

I'll go for 13. It might sound ridiculously high let's see. All stars have to align with some lucky medal winners. 

[NaBUru38 218]

I expect no medal, but maybe we get lucky in sailing, rowing or long jump.

[Vektor 3,326]

On 06/07/2021 at 11:30, Vektor said:

I am trying to be at least somewhat optimistic, so I am going with this kind of calculation for  

 

Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (2 gold)

•  Swimming, men's 200 fly
• Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m

 

Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (2 gold, 3 other medals)

• Fencing, men's team sabre
• Swimming, men's 100m butterfly
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m
• Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg

 

Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (2 gold, 10 other medals)

• Athletics, women's heptathlon
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m
• Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m
• Fencing, men's individual sabre
• Fencing, women's individual sabre
• Fencing, women's team sabre
• Judo, men's 90kg
• Modern Pentathlon, women's individual
• Modern Pentathlon, men's individual
• Sailing, men's finn
• Shooting, men's 10m air rifle
• Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos
• Swimming, men's 400m IM
• Swimming, women's 400m IM
• Swimming, women's 200m fly
• Swimming, women's 10km
• Swimming, men's 10km
• Water Polo, men's
• Water Polo, women's
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg
• Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg

 

Gold medals: 2+2+2 = 6

Other medals: 3+10 = 13

 

Overall medal count: 19

 

So in terms of gold medals less than what we are used to but in terms of the overall medal count this would be the best since 1996. Makes sense to me, we don't have many undeniable favorites, but have a solid number of medal contenders, maybe more than in the last few Olympic cycles. 

lol, I can't believe that I almost got it right.  I projected 6 gold and 19 total medals and we ended up with 6 gold and 20 total medals. I thought that this was a mildly optimistic projection, my realistic projection was 5 gold and 15 total medals, which for me shows that we did really well.

 

Here's the recap with the results added:

 

Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (projection: 2 gold / result: 2 gold)

•  Swimming, men's 200 fly - GOLD
• Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m - GOLD

 

Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (projection: 2 gold, 3 other medals / result: 2 gold, 4 other medals)

• Fencing, men's team sabre - BRONZE
• Swimming, men's 100m butterfly - SILVER
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m - GOLD, SILVER
• Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m - BRONZE
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg - GOLD

 

Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (projection: 2 gold, 10 other medals / result: 2 gold, 9 other medals)

• Athletics, women's heptathlon - 13th
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m - 6th
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m - GOLD
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m - SILVER
• Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m - 5th
• Fencing, men's individual sabre - GOLD
• Fencing, men's individual epée - SILVER
• Fencing, women's individual sabre - 4th
• Fencing, women's team sabre - 8th
• Judo, men's 90kg - BRONZE
• Modern Pentathlon, women's individual - BRONZE
• Modern Pentathlon, men's individual - 6th
• Sailing, men's finn - SILVER
• Shooting, men's 10m air rifle - 5th
• Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos - 10th
• Swimming, men's 400m IM - 4th
• Swimming, women's 400m IM - 5th
• Swimming, women's 200m fly - 4th
• Swimming, women's 10km - 4th
• Swimming, men's 10km - SILVER
• Water Polo, men's - BRONZE
• Water Polo, women's - BRONZE
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg - 12th
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg - SILVER
• Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg - 5th

 

Events with a small chance for a medal (projection: 0 medal / result: 1 medal, plus a couple of good results)

• Karate, kumite, 75kg - BRONZE
• Canoe Sprint, men's K2 1000m - 4th
• Taekwondo, men's 58kg - 5th
• Judo, women's 52kg - 5th
• Swimming, men's 4x100m freestyle relay - 5th
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 97kg - 5th

 

Events with zero chance for anything (projection: 0 medal / result: 1 completely unexpected 4th place)

• Cycling - Mountain Bike, women's - 4th

[MagyarBabu 153]

2 minutes ago, Vektor said:

lol, I can't believe that I almost got it right.  I projected 6 gold and 19 total medals and we ended up with 6 gold and 20 total medals. I thought that this was a mildly optimistic projection, my realistic projection was 5 gold and 15 total medals, which for me shows that we did really well.

 

Here's the recap with the results added:

 

Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (projection: 2 gold / result: 2 gold)

•  Swimming, men's 200 fly - GOLD
• Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m - GOLD

 

Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (projection: 2 gold, 3 other medals / result: 2 gold, 4 other medals)

• Fencing, men's team sabre - BRONZE
• Swimming, men's 100m butterfly - SILVER
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m - GOLD, SILVER
• Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m - BRONZE
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg - GOLD

 

Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (projection: 2 gold, 10 other medals, result: 2 gold, 9 other medals)

• Athletics, women's heptathlon - 13th
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m - 6th
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m - GOLD
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m - SILVER
• Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m - 5th
• Fencing, men's individual sabre - GOLD
• Fencing, men's individual epée - SILVER
• Fencing, women's individual sabre - 4th
• Fencing, women's team sabre - 8th
• Judo, men's 90kg - BRONZE
• Modern Pentathlon, women's individual - BRONZE
• Modern Pentathlon, men's individual - 6th
• Sailing, men's finn - SILVER
• Shooting, men's 10m air rifle - 5th
• Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos - 10th
• Swimming, men's 400m IM - 4th
• Swimming, women's 400m IM - 5th
• Swimming, women's 200m fly - 4th
• Swimming, women's 10km - 4th
• Swimming, men's 10km - SILVER
• Water Polo, men's - BRONZE
• Water Polo, women's - BRONZE
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg - 12th
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg - SILVER
• Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg - 5th

 

Events with a small chance for a medal (projection: 0 medal, result: 1 medal, plus a couple of good results)

• Karate, kumite, 75kg - BRONZE
• Canoe Sprint, men's K2 1000m - 4th
• Taekwondo, men's 58kg - 5th
• Judo, women's 52kg - 5th
• Swimming, men's 4x100m freestyle relay - 5th
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 97kg - 5th

 

Events with zero chance for anything (projection: 0 medal, result: 1 completely unexpected 4th place)

• Cycling - Mountain Bike, women's - 4th

So, let’s predict something more next time! You have good powers 

[Makedonas 2,239]

On 06/07/2021 at 11:48, Makedonas said:

I'll say 5-6 for Greece, with Petrounias and Tentoglou being the only ones that I would surprised if they did not win medals.

So in the end we got 4, but Petrounias and Tentoglou did win medals.

 

Although we didn't win as many as I would have liked, we were pretty close and I think these were decent Games for us. We had many young athletes come very close to winning medals and I think Paris 2024 and Los Angeles 2028 will be very very good for us!

[Jinzha 702]

On 06/07/2021 at 17:27, Jinzha said:

Update of my prediction from earlier this year:

 

Archery: 0-1

Athletics: 0-3 (was 0-2)

Cycling road: 2-3 (was 1-2)

Cycling track: 3-5

BMX: 1-2

Mountainbike: 1 

Field hockey: 1-2

Artistic gymnastics: 0 (was 0-1)

Handball: 0 (was 0-1)

Judo: 1-2

Rowing: 3-5

Sailing: 3-4 

Swimming: 0-3 (was 0-2)

Suprise medal: 1-3

 

Total: 16-34 (was 15-33)

 

Changes:

• Athletics: added Femke Bol
• Cycling road: another women's cycling medal. I really think they could get 3 medals in 2 events, Van der Breggen, Van Vleuten, Vos and Vollering are unstoppable (except by Dychert).
• Artistic gymnastics: removed Zonderland, I sadly don't see it happening anymore
• Handball: removed women's team, their preparation has been messy and results in friendlies disappointing
• Swimming: added a third potential medal for our contenders Kamminga (100m/200m breast) / Kromowidjojo (50m free)/ Weertman and Van Rouwendaal (10km open water)

So I made in my prediction a range from pessimistic to optimistic. Turns out I wasn't optimistic enough after all!

 

Update of my prediction from earlier this year:

 

Archery: 0-1 -> 1

Athletics: 0-3 -> 8

Cycling road: 2-3 -> 4

Cycling track: 3-5 -> 6

BMX: 1-2 -> 2

Mountainbike: 1 -> 0

Field hockey: 1-2 -> 1

Artistic gymnastics: 0 -> 0 

Handball: 0 -> 0

Judo: 1-2 -> 1

Rowing: 3-5 -> 5

Sailing: 3-4 -> 3

Swimming: 0-3 -> 3

Suprise medal: 1-3 -> 2

 

Total: 16-34 -> 36

 

Only one medal below the pessimistic range, because I foolishly put Van der Poel as a guaranteed medal and not Bol or Hassan. From the optimistic ranges only men's hockey team, a judo medal and one more sailing medal (De Geus in RS:X women) missed out. The surprise medals happened mostly within the already mentioned sports, but the two missing from the list were Fontijn (boxing) and Van der Vleuten (horse jumping).

 

The 8 athletics medals are the huge outlier that I did not predict and in road and track cycling I had not considered medals for Dumoulin and Braspenninx.

[Laraja 1,498]

I made this prediction two years ago, and....

 

I got the exactly number of medals for

 

Of course I didn't predict all the correct sports, but the number I did!

 

I am full of myself 

 

[intoronto 6,393]

On 07/07/2021 at 07:22, intoronto said:

Something like this. 20-24 range seems possible. Ideally over 22 

I got this right lol

[thiago_simoes 1,441]

On 20/07/2021 at 01:47, thiago_simoes said:

Now that we have the final number of qualifiers for each nation, I'll update my predictions.

"Safe" medals
Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal
Athletics: 1 medal
Boxing: 1 medal
Judo: 1 medal

Sailing: 1 medal

Skateboarding: 3 medals

Sprint canoeing: 2 medals

Surfing: 2 medals
Volleyball and Beach volleyball: 2 medals

 

Likely, but definitely not easy:

Football: 1 medal
Taekwondo: 1 medal

Swimming and Open water swimming: 2 medals

 

Unlikely, but feasible medals

Cycling: 1 medal
Fencing: 1 medal

Slalom canoeing: 1 medal
Tennis: 1 medal

 

Nearly impossible medals

Archery: 1 medal

Table tennis: 1 medal

Wrestling: 1 medal

 

I'd say 15 medals is a realistic expectation. Some sports in the "safe medal" tier can earn more medals, like artistic gymnastics and judo, and even football can give us 2 medals, so 15 is a somewhat conservative but realistic number.

Our unofficial goal is reaching 20 medals, but for this to happen we'll need excellent performances in judo, artistic gymnastics and volleyball, and we'll need at least 2 medals in athletics and swimming. It's within reach, but I honestly don't expect this to happen anymore.

Okay, let's check how many I got right.

"Safe" medals
Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal --> 2 medals (1 more than what I predicted)
Athletics: 1 medal --> 2 medals (1 more)
Boxing: 1 medal --> 3 medals (2 more)
Judo: 1 medal --> 2 medals  (1 more)

Sailing: 1 medal --> 1 medal

Skateboarding: 3 medals --> 3 medals

Sprint canoeing: 2 medals --> 1 medal

Surfing: 2 medals --> 1 medal
Volleyball and Beach volleyball: 2 medals --> 1 medal

 

Likely, but definitely not easy:

Football: 1 medal --> 1 medal
Taekwondo: 1 medal --> No medals

Swimming and Open water swimming: 2 medals --> 3 medals (1 more)

 

Unlikely, but feasible medals

Cycling: 1 medal --> No medals
Fencing: 1 medal --> No medals

Slalom canoeing: 1 medal --> No medals
Tennis: 1 medal --> 1 medal

 

Nearly impossible medals

Archery: 1 medal --> No medals

Table tennis: 1 medal --> No medals

Wrestling: 1 medal --> No medals

 

All in all, I'm happy with my predictions. The medals which I thought were nearly impossible were, indeed, impossible. Among the unlikely medals, we got 1 out of 4. Among the likely medals, we got 4 out of 4, but only because we got one more medal than I expected in swimming, while in taekwondo our best finish was 5th. Still close. Among the safe medals, I got every sport correctly, and actually two more medals than I had originally predicted.

Major surprises for me: artistic gymnastics, boxing, tennis and swimming

Major disappointments: fencing, cycling, volleyball/beach volleyball and taekwondo

[hoversaBR 618]

8 minutes ago, Laraja said:

I made this prediction two years ago, and....

 

I got the exactly number of medals for

 

Of course I didn't predict all the correct sports, but the number I did!

 

I am full of myself 

 

"Beach Volleyball: 2(maybe more)"