How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (Final Version)

[Makedonas 2,155]

I'll say 5-6 for Greece, with Petrounias and Tentoglou being the only ones that I would surprised if they did not win medals.

[Agger 1,662]

The official target is 8-10 medals. I'm going for the middle saying 9. 2-4 of those will be gold.

[CCB 565]

3 hours ago, Jinzha said:

Update of my prediction from earlier this year:

 

Archery: 0-1

Athletics: 0-3 (was 0-2)

Cycling road: 2-3 (was 1-2)

Cycling track: 3-5

BMX: 1-2

Mountainbike: 1 

Field hockey: 1-2

Artistic gymnastics: 0 (was 0-1)

Handball: 0 (was 0-1)

Judo: 1-2

Rowing: 3-5

Sailing: 3-4 

Swimming: 0-3 (was 0-2)

Suprise medal: 1-3

 

Total: 16-34 (was 15-33)

 

Changes:

• Athletics: added Femke Bol
• Cycling road: another women's cycling medal. I really think they could get 3 medals in 2 events, Van der Breggen, Van Vleuten, Vos and Vollering are unstoppable (except by Dychert).
• Artistic gymnastics: removed Zonderland, I sadly don't see it happening anymore
• Handball: removed women's team, their preparation has been messy and results in friendlies disappointing
• Swimming: added a third potential medal for our contenders Kamminga (100m/200m breast) / Kromowidjojo (50m free)/ Weertman and Van Rouwendaal (10km open water)

Well, my final prediction is 10 gold, 10 silver and 10 bronze. And really looking forward to the 400m hurdles: so excited if Bol is able to medal in that event. 

[Braulio 139]

For Mexico I still go with 3 to 5, similar with the medals we won in Rio

[Oldira 88]

5-7. Probably a lot higher than people expect but we have serious medal contenders in Rowing, boxing,gymnastics and slighter chances in Equestrian, Golf, Pentathlon and Taekwando. . 

[Monzanator 4,501]

Poland won 11 medals in each of the last three SOG so I'm gonna say 11 is the target again

 

My most probable picks:

 

3x athletics (Fajdek or Nowicki, Lewandowski and women's 4x400 relay)

 

2x canoeing (women's C1 or K1 and women's K2 or K4)

 

2x rowing

 

1x sailing

 

1x volleyball (Men's Team)

 

2x random upsets (judo, wrestling, swimming or Niewiadoma in women's cycling).

 

I didn't even count Wlodarczyk in hammer & Andrejczyk in javelin.

[NMQ 243]

I'm more pessimistic than the last time. Likely medals I have only Nacra 17 (Lange-Carranza) and women's field hockey. With a bit of luck and if the planets align maybe one of the other teams, one of the doubles in tennis, women's 48 kg in judo (Pareto) and men's 58 kg in taekwondo (Guzmán). Anything else would be a total surprise for me.

[LDOG 2,418]

13 minutes ago, NMQ said:

I'm more pessimistic than the last time. Likely medals I have only Nacra 17 (Lange-Carranza) and women's field hockey. With a bit of luck and if the planets align maybe one of the other teams, one of the doubles in tennis, women's 48 kg in judo (Pareto) and men's 58 kg in taekwondo (Guzmán). Anything else would be a total surprise for me.

Fede Gil has an outside chance in shooting, I mean, he just won a world cup medal with almost every opponent present. But yeah, it's shooting..  

 

Everything looks very grim, even those you have as "likely" I think are "outside" right now. We should be happy if we get anything out of this mess of a preparation our athletes are having.

[orangeman 1,989]

For Canada, I think 24 total with 4-5 golds would be expected.  

 

This is probably the most unpredictable Olympics since WWII, even at the Games there could be an outbreak which sidelines half the athletes competing.  

[MagyarBabu 153]

I tried to calculate a sort of probability of GOLDs like one of the most vulgar bookmakers. I rated the events with the possibility of GOLD medal with a number from 0.5 to 5.5, which represent a percentage,  and I considered a base of 6 points as an absolute certainly (100%):
 

5 points: (>80%)

4 points: (near 66%)

3 points: (50%)

2 points: (near 33%)

1 points: (<17%)

 

Swimming:

 

Men's 200 Butterfly - 5.5
Women's 400 I.M. - 3

Women's 200 Butterfly - 1
Men's 100 Butterfly - 1
Men's 10Km -  1

 

Canoeing:
 

Women's K4 500m - 5

Women's K2 500m - 4
Men's K1 1000m - 3

Men's K1 200m - 3

Women's K1 500m - 1.5

Women's C2 500m - 1

 

Fencing

 

Men's Team Sabre - 2.5

Men's Épée Ind. - 2

Men's Sabre Ind. - 2

Women's Sabre Team - 1

Women's Sabre Ind. - 1

 

Wrestling

 

Greco-Roman 77kg - 4

Greco-Roman 87kg - 1.5

 

Modern Pentathlon:

 

Men's - 1

Women's - 1

 

Water Polo:

Men's - 1.5

Women's - 0.5

 

Judo:

 

Men's 90 kg - 1

 

Athletics

 

Heptathlon - 1

 

Shooting

 

Men's 10m Air Rifle - 0.5

Men's 50m 3 Rifle three positions - 0.5

Mixed 10m Air Rifle Team - 1

 

GRAND TOTAL: 51

51/6(100%) = 8.5 GOLD MEDALS

For approximation down and considering the margin of error due to extreme poverty of accuracy of such type of calculation, to date I would predict the usual 8 GOLD medals, even 7 if we consider the fact that these calculation are perhaps "biased evaluation" made by a supporter not an expert and impartial statistician.

 

I know this is crazy but the countdown is now to -16. Understand me a little, at least...