[dullard 440]

Pan has the most potential to join Popovici deep in the 1:43 zone but he doesn't seem to know how to maximise his potential in this event. He needs to be far more aggressive.

[dullard 440]

2 minutes ago, dantm said:

The 200m Free is stacked with so many contenders at 1.44 it’s nearly impossible to pick.

ignoring Popovici, 1.43 low will probably win it.

its crazy that Thorpe was doing 1.44.0, 20 years ago

 

Who's going 1:43 low besides Popovici?

[dullard 440]

3 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

If memory served Britain moved their champs to the US model one year, then did appallingly at the subsequent WCs. So they promptly moved it back to their usual window the following year.

Which year was that?

[dullard 440]

Just now, Topicmaster1010 said:

1:44.14 for Lukas Märtens in the 200m freestyle, #7 performer of all time.

I was just typing up a post about this. What a swim! I still think Popovici will get back near his 2022 best but Märtens has to be considered the favourite because he's already put up a gold medal worthy time.

 

He also went 1:44.89 in the heats so making 1:44s routine now.

[dullard 440]

11 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Alright, that's a bit close, yeah  

 

I do wonder why these countries with trials somehow want the trials to be that close to the Olympics. Why not just hold them in March or April, so there's plenty of time for recovery and then rebuilding to peak shape again?

That's how Australia used to do it and they've been much more successful since they changed. It's hard to say if the change helped or if Australia's just going through a bit of a purple patch. 

 

Canada is moving their trials to June starting next year probably because Australia (who copied the US) has done so well.

Edited Friday at 09:58 AM by dullard

[dullard 440]

3 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

When are the Australian trials? Olympics are wtill three months away, and as we see in plenty of other sports, it definitely shouldn't be impossible to have two peaks separated by 2-3 months  

June 10-15 and US trials follow immediately after.

[dullard 440]

22 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

The US didn't have too much strength last summer in Budapest.

 

Adding in the GBR heat swim (adjusting it slightly slower for a legal takeover), the US were only capable of producing the 4th fastest time of the meet, behind Aus, Italy and GBR.

 

Obviously with their general strength, having them as favourites is perfectly reasonable and even more so if Dressel is close to form. But if someone had one of those others as favourite, I don't think it would be an unreasonable shout. And that's not even considering the Chinese.

I know some people here get shitty when you talk about China having strong prospects to medal but they could feasibly have a 46 lead off, a 46 anchor plus a couple of 47 mid splits. That's some serious firepower. 

[dullard 440]

18 minutes ago, RussB said:

Not having Daniel Wiffen medalling in either the 800 or the 1500 is a bold prediction in my view given what he did the WR in the 800 (short course).

 

Britain will be aiming for 9-10 medals so a return of 4 would be very disappointing. Mens medley and mixed medley fortunes are drastically improved by the progression of Ollie Morgan and Peaty. The 4x100 free team could challenge the US for gold given the level seen at trials. 

Think people were overrating the strength of Hackett's world record because of how long it lasted but he wasn't tapered when he set it and the 800 wasn't included in Worlds until recently.

[dullard 440]

22 minutes ago, tjunior said:

Kós Hubert Hungary

Their prediction has wrong country next to his name. Just did the table using countifs in Sheets.

Edited Friday at 07:48 AM by dullard

[dullard 440]

11 minutes ago, dantm said:

Which events would the US likely win that I haven't listed?

Maybe Dressel could back to form but that's a huge IF,based on his situation over the past 3 years

Regan Smith maybe,but Kaylee doesn't show any signs of losing to anyone.

Summer will take "normal" US Golds as will Marchand.

 

Could be tough for the US

 

Oh I'm not criticising your predictions but such an outcome would be a colossal failure from their perspective.

 

Medal table based on your predictions:

 

 

[dullard 440]

7 minutes ago, dantm said:

It could go before Paris

Maybe Winnington could get it at Aussie trials but Short will probably not peak until Paris.

[dullard 440]

4 minutes ago, RussB said:

I think from what we have seen over the past 12 months, Popovici should certainly not have the favourite tag for the 200. It’s a very open event, I think I’d want to be with Richards but I’m biased being British. 

Popovici has been looking more like his 2022 self so far this season.

[dullard 440]

20 hours ago, dantm said:

Paris Swimming Predictions

 

M/W    EVENT    MEDAL    NAME    COUNTRY
MENS    100m Backstroke    1.Gold    Jiayu Xu    China
MENS    100m Backstroke    2.Silver     Thomas Ceccon    Italy
MENS    100m Backstroke    3.Bronze    Hunter Armstrong    USA
MENS    100m Breastroke    1.Gold    Hayang Qin    China
MENS    100m Breastroke    2.Silver     Adam Peaty    Great Britain
MENS    100m Breastroke    3.Bronze    Nicolo Martinelli    Italy
MENS    100m Butterfly    1.Gold    Dare Rose    USA
MENS    100m Butterfly    2.Silver     Josh Liendo    Canada
MENS    100m Butterfly    3.Bronze    Noe Ponti    Switzerland
MENS    100m Freestyle    1.Gold    Zhanie Pan    China
MENS    100m Freestyle    2.Silver     David Popovici    Romania
MENS    100m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Kyle Chalmers    Australia
MENS    1500m Freestyle    1.Gold    Ahmed Hafnaoui    Tunisia
MENS    1500m Freestyle    2.Silver     Bobby Finke    USA
MENS    1500m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Samuel Short    Australia
MENS    200m Backstroke    1.Gold    Hubert Kos    Netherlands
MENS    200m Backstroke    2.Silver     Roman Nityukov    Switzerland
MENS    200m Backstroke    3.Bronze    Ryan Murphy    USA
MENS    200m Breastroke    1.Gold    Hayang Qin    China
MENS    200m Breastroke    2.Silver     Zac Stubblety-Cook    Australia
MENS    200m Breastroke    3.Bronze    Leon Marchand    France
MENS    200m Butterfly    1.Gold    Leon Marchand    France
MENS    200m Butterfly    2.Silver     Thomas Heilman    USA
MENS    200m Butterfly    3.Bronze    Kristof Milak    Hungary
MENS    200m Freestyle    1.Gold    Matt Richards    Great Britain
MENS    200m Freestyle    2.Silver     Zhanie Pan    China
MENS    200m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Maximillian Giulliani    Australia
MENS    200m IM     1.Gold    Leon Marchand    France
MENS    200m IM     2.Silver     Shaine Casas    USA
MENS    200m IM     3.Bronze    Shun Wang    China
MENS    400m Freestyle    1.Gold    Samuel Short    Australia
MENS    400m Freestyle    2.Silver     Ahmed Hafnaoui    Tunisia
MENS    400m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Elijah Winnington    Australia
MENS    400m IM    1.Gold    Leon Marchand    France
MENS    400m IM    2.Silver     Carson Foster    USA
MENS    400m IM    3.Bronze    Tomoru Honda    Japan
MENS    4x100m Freestyle     1.Gold    USA Mens    USA
MENS    4x100m Freestyle     2.Silver     Australia Mens    Australia
MENS    4x100m Freestyle     3.Bronze    Great Britain Mens    Great Britain
MENS    4x100m Medley     1.Gold    China Mens    China
MENS    4x100m Medley     2.Silver     USA Mens    USA
MENS    4x100m Medley     3.Bronze    Australia Mens    Australia
MENS    4x200m Freestyle     1.Gold    Great Britain Mens    Great Britain
MENS    4x200m Freestyle     2.Silver     USA Mens    USA
MENS    4x200m Freestyle     3.Bronze    Australia Mens    Australia
MENS    50m Freestyle    1.Gold    Cameron McEvoy    Australia
MENS    50m Freestyle    2.Silver     Jack Alexy    USA
MENS    50m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Florent Manadou    France
MENS    800m Freestyle    1.Gold    Ahmed Hafnaoui    Tunisia
MENS    800m Freestyle    2.Silver     Samuel Short    Australia
MENS    800m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Bobby Finke    USA
MIXED    4x100m Medley     1.Gold    China Mixed    China
MIXED    4x100m Medley     2.Silver     Australia Mixed    Australia
MIXED    4x100m Medley     3.Bronze    USA Mixed    USA
WOMENS    100m Backstroke    1.Gold    Kaylee McKeown    Australia
WOMENS    100m Backstroke    2.Silver     Regan Smith    USA
WOMENS    100m Backstroke    3.Bronze    Clare Curzan    USA
WOMENS    100m Breastroke    1.Gold    Qiantin Tang    China
WOMENS    100m Breastroke    2.Silver     Ruta Melutyte    Lithuania
WOMENS    100m Breastroke    3.Bronze    Lily King    USA
WOMENS    100m Butterfly    1.Gold    Torri Huske    USA
WOMENS    100m Butterfly    2.Silver     Zhang Yufei    China
WOMENS    100m Butterfly    3.Bronze    Maggie McNeal    Canada
WOMENS    100m Freestyle    1.Gold    Mollie O'Callahan    Australia
WOMENS    100m Freestyle    2.Silver     Siobon Haughey    Hong Kong
WOMENS    100m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Kate Douglas    USA
WOMENS    1500m Freestyle    1.Gold    Katie Ledecky    USA
WOMENS    1500m Freestyle    2.Silver     Katie Grimes    USA
WOMENS    1500m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Lani Pallister    Australia
WOMENS    200m Backstroke    1.Gold    Kaylee McKeown    Australia
WOMENS    200m Backstroke    2.Silver     Clare Curzan    USA
WOMENS    200m Backstroke    3.Bronze    Regan Smith    USA
WOMENS    200m Breastroke    1.Gold    Tatiana Shuemaker    South Africa
WOMENS    200m Breastroke    2.Silver     Tes Schouten    Netherlands
WOMENS    200m Breastroke    3.Bronze    Kate Douglas    USA
WOMENS    200m Butterfly    1.Gold    Zhang Yufei    China
WOMENS    200m Butterfly    2.Silver     Summer McIntosh    Canada
WOMENS    200m Butterfly    3.Bronze    Elizabeth Dekkers    Australia
WOMENS    200m Freestyle    1.Gold    Mollie O'Callahan    Australia
WOMENS    200m Freestyle    2.Silver     Ariane Titmus    Australia
WOMENS    200m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Siobon Haughey    Hong Kong
WOMENS    200m IM     1.Gold    Summer McIntosh    Canada
WOMENS    200m IM     2.Silver     Kaylee McKeown    Australia
WOMENS    200m IM     3.Bronze    Kate Douglass    USA
WOMENS    400m Freestyle    1.Gold    Ariane Titmus    Australia
WOMENS    400m Freestyle    2.Silver     Summer McIntosh    Canada
WOMENS    400m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Li Binjie    China
WOMENS    400m IM    1.Gold    Summer McIntosh    Canada
WOMENS    400m IM    2.Silver     Katie Grimes    USA
WOMENS    400m IM    3.Bronze    Jenna Forrester    Australia
WOMENS    4x100m Freestyle     1.Gold    Australia Womens    Australia
WOMENS    4x100m Freestyle     2.Silver     USA Womens    USA
WOMENS    4x100m Freestyle     3.Bronze    China Womens    China
WOMENS    4x100m Medley     1.Gold    USA Womens    USA
WOMENS    4x100m Medley     2.Silver     Australia Womens    Australia
WOMENS    4x100m Medley     3.Bronze    Canada Womens    Canada
WOMENS    4x200m Freestyle     1.Gold    Australia Womens    Australia
WOMENS    4x200m Freestyle     2.Silver     China Womens    China
WOMENS    4x200m Freestyle     3.Bronze    USA Womens    USA
WOMENS    50m Freestyle    1.Gold    Sarah Sjostrum    Sweden
WOMENS    50m Freestyle    2.Silver     Emma McKeon    Australia
WOMENS    50m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Cate Campbell    Australia
WOMENS    800m Freestyle    1.Gold    Katie Ledecky    USA
WOMENS    800m Freestyle    2.Silver     Ariane Titmus    Australia
WOMENS    800m Freestyle    3.Bronze    Li Binjie    China
 

There'd be a lot of American tears if this happened.

[dullard 440]

@Esterr24 Why do you keep making new accounts?

[dullard 440]

On 4/20/2024 at 11:14 PM, Orangehair43 said:

I’m just giving my prediction. We saw mass protests in 2019 and World Aquatics treat the protestors worse than dopers. 

There were protests but they weren't "mass protests".

Edited Friday at 02:06 AM by dullard

[dullard 440]

7 hours ago, EselTheDonkey said:

Lukas Märtens 400m Freestyle 3:40,33 at the German National Championships in Berlin. 

Looks like Paris will be the last time we have to put up with that ridiculous world record line that gobbles everyone up in the last 100.

[dullard 440]

That 1:55.35 is faster than Wang Shun went at trials last year and then he went 1:54 at Asian Games later in the year. If Marchand wants that gold he's gonna have to swim a best time in the Olympic final after a very heavy program consisting of 2 x 400 IM, 3 x 200 FL, 3 x 200 BR and 2 x 200 IM plus some relays while Wang Shun will probably only have swum 2 x 200 IM plus maybe the 4x200 relay final. It'll be a massive feat if Marchand can pull it off.

[dullard 440]

 

42 minutes ago, phelps said:

no way  can win a medal in the men's 4*200m free relay

 

 can only throw it away, then  and  are definitely a lot better than them, even  with Ragaini's explosion already have a better lineup than  

and  are also still ahead, even if they're not performing at their best yet (and maybe they're not going to show their real potential until the Games)

We'll see Australia's real potential at trials.

[dullard 440]

Just now, OlympicsFan said:

I still don’t see China seriously threatening the U.S. or Australia. China should be about 1.5 seconds behind after the first leg and all the waves will make it very difficult to catch up. I think China is a rather clear favorite for bronze, but probably not more than that. I actually think that China could medal in all 7 relays. The men’s 800 free relay should be the closest call, followed by the men’s 400 free relay.

Australia could easily lose 1.5 seconds to China in the breaststroke leg and then Zhang will likely outsplit McKeon in the fly.

[dullard 440]

22 minutes ago, Josh said:

I’m sorry, but I can’t take any of her results seriously when she was one of the 23 Chinese swimmers who tested positive for TMZ…

Doesn't change the reality that unless there's a CAS appeal that blocks them from competing many of these Chinese athletes will be in Paris standing on podiums.

[dullard 440]

Pan Zhanle not going away. 46.97 in the 100 free final at Chinese trials.

Edited Tuesday at 02:25 PM by dullard

[dullard 440]

Yang Junxuan just went 52.68 in the 100 free at Chinese trials so the mixed and women's medleys are looking even stronger. The mixed medley in particular now has no weak legs.

 

[dullard 440]

13 minutes ago, Josh said:

Their backstroke leg still has some work to do before they’ll be in contention for gold…

True, but Tang could feasibly split 1:03 which compensates for their backstroke disadvantage. We'll see how weak their 100 back is tonight. The thing about the Chinese women's medley relay in recent times is they tend to underperform so maybe they will again. If China does push its way onto the podium it likely means Australia or Canada has been pushed off.

Edited April 22 by dullard

[dullard 440]

Tang's 1:04.39 now makes China a strong gold medal contender in the women's medley relay.

[dullard 440]