OlympicsFan

Any chance that them missing the final had nothing to do with their own shape/the level of competition and instead was a result of them only using this as training for the Olympics? In other words: Should we see this as any indication for the Olympics?

If Germany is indeed doing what I think, I would be very glad and I’d have to give big props to their new head coach (Valery Belenky). I always thought that the best strategy for a nation like Germany would be to focus on the all-around to qualify a team and then to have everyone only focusing on one or two events for the Olympics and not give a shit about individual/team all-around results at the Olympics.

Not that crazy of a standard, even two German guys ran 2:08 or faster recently and Germany is pretty bad in men’s marathon. Also you can’t compare marathon times at the Olympics to marathon times elsewhere and with the new shoes it has become pretty „easy“ to run 2:08. Last year 109 men ran 2:08 or faster, in 2019 151 men ran 2:08 or faster.

Also Heidtmann in the 200 IM, but he already qualified in the 400 IM.

Interesting that Braunschweig also made the FINA standard this morning, so in theory Germany could take both Ulrich and Braunschweig and wouldn‘t have to use relay-only spots for them. I read somewhere that a nation can take 2 relay-only swimmers per relay, do you know if that is correct? Let‘s say I have 3 qualified relays, does that mean that I could for example nominate 6 relay-only swimmers for one relay and then no relay-only swimmers for the other two relays? I think the following swimmers are guaranteed a relay-only spot: Men: Fildebrandt, Friese, Zellmann Women: Küchler, Höpink, Pietruschka, Elendt So in theory Germany should have 7 relay-only spots left and could for example nominate Mrozinski and Salchow. Braunschweig, Ulrich and A. Köhler (from 2019) all have the Standard, so you wouldn’t have to use a relay-only spot for them? Also Demler could get a spot (for the women’s 800 free relay), but she might also still qualify in the 200 IM individually. In general I am not a fan of nominating relay-only swimmers, but I think it makes sense if that athlete is actually good enough to be subbed in and still allow the relay to qualify for the final. There is always a chance that one athlete gets sick or is out of shape, so it would be bad/unfair for the other relay swimmers if there wouldn’t be a back up. When I saw that Elendt entered the 200 breast, I thought that she would try to get the standard on the first 100 if she misses it in the 100 breast (but apparently she had other plans) and I wondered why the other athletes (for example Ulrich or Höpink) didn’t try the same.

Braunschweig beat Ulrich and was faster than 54.27, while Ulrich didn’t hit the standard, so he shouldn’t be qualified.

Not sure what he means with excellent chances, but in order to qualify, Ulrich either has to hit the standard or he has to hope that no one beats him with a time faster than 54.27. Not sure if he will be allowed to compete individually even without making the German standard, but in the past that usually was the policy of the german swimming federation (allowing swimmers who qualified in the relay to swim individually if they have the FINA standard).

Don’t like this poll, I thought it would be more about predictions.

1) Impressive that you can judge what rational predictions in all other sports are. 2) Which gymnastics predictions exactly in this thread aren’t rational?

Two for Kamminga, one for Kromowidjojo, one for Toussaint and two in open water.

I don’t know anything about the Dutch medal chances in new sports, but only looking at old sports, I could predict 61 medals for the Netherlands: (Open water) Swimming: 6 Athletics: 8 Archery: 3 Boxing: 1 BMX: 2 Mountainbike: 1 Road cycling: 5 Track cycling: 7 Equestrian: 5 Field hockey: 2 Football: 1 Handball: 1 Artistic gymnastics: 2 Judo: 5 Rowing: 6 Sailing: 5 Water polo: 1

Not sure about Hassan in the 10000 m, Van der Breggen in the time trial (what about the American girl?) and all the sailing golds. 5 golds in sailing would be really impressive given that no nation has won at least 5 golds since Norway did it in 1920 (7 golds) when there were 14 events. In 5 of the Events where they won gold, there were no other competitors ...

I don’t know what medals you already predicted, but in swimming/athletics a super optimistic prediction could look like this: Swimming: 2 x Kamminga (100 and 200 breast) Toussaint (100 back) Kromowidjojo (50 free) Weertman (10 km Open water) Van Rouwendaal (10 km Open water) Athletics: Schippers (200 m) 2 x Bol (400 m and 400 m hurdles) Women‘s 4x400 m relay 2 x Hassan (5000 m and 10000 m) Visser (100 m hurdles) Vetter (heptathlon)

Kind of sad that even I could make better predictions than French media. Your men’s 400 free relay 99.999 % won’t win silver. Olivier winning gold would also be a shock, given that both Wellbrock and Paltrinieri have far superior speed. Manaudou should win silver and maybe you will win a medal in men’s 800 free. You can justify predicting gold for Mayer, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable about it. Predicting medals in women’s hammer throw and for grandpa Diniz also seems questionable. I would rather predict a medal in men’s pole vault and/or men’s 110 m hurdles.

She could definitely medal in both, but obviously she doesn’t belong on that list. There are multiple other woman who could swim between 2:20 and 2:21. I guess you didn’t really get what my list was about.

I think 5-6 medals in swimming is only realistic if Hosszu gets back close to her best (sub 4:32 and sub 2:08). Other athletes should combine for 2-4 medals. 2 medals for Milak and then maybe 1-2 medals for Kesely, Kenderesi and maybe Rasovszky.

Not sure what your comment has to do with my comment? 1) In sports it doesn’t matter what you deserve. 2) He is far from a lock to medal in either event, so I didn’t include him. 3) He certainly is a medal contender in both events.

Let’s hope that you are right and that they will indeed not host it.

In swimming i feel pretty comfortable predicting the following medalists: Women: Ledecky (400/800/1500 free) Quadarella (1500 free) Titmus (400 free) MacNeil (100 fly) King (100 breast) Smith (100/200 back) McKeown (100/200 back) Ye Shiwen (200/400 IM) USA (all relays) Australia (all relays) Canada (medley relay/400 free relay) Men: Dressel (50/100 free/100 fly) Chalmers (100 free) Paltrinieri (800 free) Wellbrock (1500 free) Peaty (100 breast) Sato (200 breast) Chupkov (200 breast) Rylov (200 back) Milak (100/200 fly) Seto (200 fly/200/400 IM) USA (400 free relay/medley relay) Russia (all relays) GB (medley relay) Australia (800 free relay)

Yes and McKeown is a lock for another one, so there is only 1 medal left for the 2nd American, Atherton, the two Canadians and Panziera.

I think one of them having an off day wouldn’t be enough. At least 3 of them would need to have an off day (if you consider them better than Pignatiello on a normal day).

For female teenagers yes, for boys not so much.

Has anyone here googled an image of Masilingi? If they allow her to compete in the 400 m, they might as well allow Seyni and Semenya to compete there (and also Eid Naser).

Oh ... anyways, Botswana became really good all of a sudden a couple of years ago. Then Monthso was caught and it seemed to slow them down again, but now they seem to be back to their old ways (especially on the men’s side). I can’t really blame those athletes though. In some sense it would be stupid not to dope. They have zero perspective in life outside of sports and at best their nations do nothing to actually catch dopers (maybe they even actively try to „encourage“ it).

So Tanzania is the new Botswana?