Vektor

What's important now isn't what will happen with the spectators, it's that they will find a way to contain it because this can be the start of the next wave in Japan. They have hit a low point in new cases a few weeks ago, this is usually the point where things start to go bad again in undervaccinated countries. But as we saw with Brazil and Copa America, you can have a big international event under quite bad circumstances. It just might be political suicide.

I think athletes are used to that are no crowds, if anything, they are too used to it, and some of them would have likely been intimidated by a huge crowd at the Games, just like how football players at EURO 2020 said that they forgot what it feels like to play in a full stadium. This is more about the Games as a TV product, because it will certainly feel lifeless compared to what audiences are used to when they watch the Games.

And Tokyo is officially under state of emergency at the very least until the end of the Games.

Sadly it looks like the COVID cases are increasing in Tokyo at the worst moment, the spectator limit is about to be cut in half: https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1109872/japan-spectators-cap-tokyo-2020-olympics We will be lucky if they let any spectators in at this rate. I think it's best to prepare for a situtation where the Games will be held in completely empty venues.

According the Wikipedia, as it currently stands, this is how the Top20 largest teams changed between Rio and Tokyo. Rio Tokyo 1 554 593 2 465 499 3 425 472 4 421 434 5 413 398 6 399 392 7 366 384 8 338 380 9 314 373 10 309 342 11 306 332 12 282 311 13 243 258 14 242 225 15 213 217 16 205 204 17 203 172 18 199 169 19 160 161 20 152 157 Does have the biggest African team ever at the Olympics?

Our swimmers with OSTs weren't invited by FINA, which means that this is our official number, unless there will be some last minute reallocation like in badminton. Hungary - 169 (1 Archery - 19 Athletics - 2 Badminton - 1 Boxing - 1 Canoeing Slalom - 17 Canoeing Sprint - 2 Cycling Mountain Bike - 1 Cycling Road - 10 Fencing - 1 Gymnastics Artistic - 1 Gymnastics Rhythmic - 14 Handball - 7 Judo - 1 Karate - 4 Modern Pentathlon - 1 Rowing - 4 Sailing - 4 Shooting - 32 Swimming - 2 Swimming Marathon - 5 Table Tennis - 1 Taekwondo - 3 Tennis - 4 Triathlon - 24 Water Polo - 1 Weightlifting - 6 Wrestling)

I am trying to be at least somewhat optimistic, so I am going with this kind of calculation for Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (2 gold) Swimming, men's 200 fly Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (2 gold, 3 other medals) Fencing, men's team sabre Swimming, men's 100m butterfly Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (2 gold, 10 other medals) Athletics, women's heptathlon Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m Fencing, men's individual sabre Fencing, women's individual sabre Fencing, women's team sabre Judo, men's 90kg Modern Pentathlon, women's individual Modern Pentathlon, men's individual Sailing, men's finn Shooting, men's 10m air rifle Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos Swimming, men's 400m IM Swimming, women's 400m IM Swimming, women's 200m fly Swimming, women's 10km Swimming, men's 10km Water Polo, men's Water Polo, women's Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg Gold medals: 2+2+2 = 6 Other medals: 3+10 = 13 Overall medal count: 19 So in terms of gold medals less than what we are used to but in terms of the overall medal count this would be the best since 1996. Makes sense to me, we don't have many undeniable favorites, but have a solid number of medal contenders, maybe more than in the last few Olympic cycles.

I think we are still waiting for FINA, we can't announce an official number before the list of swimmers is finalized. Hopefully 17 days will be enough for FINA to sort everything out.

Well, if anyone had doubts, we got a confirmation that has a gold medal chance in men's hammer throw, over 80 for the first time for Kokhan. And all things considered Halász did well, but he obviously needs to improve and go over 80 as well, men's hammer throw can have a really strong Olympic final this year.

Fucsovics has finally done it, he's in the QF at a GS and his draw wasn't even easy, he defeated two Top10 seeds and Sinner. This is the end as Novak comes next but this is already a big moment for Hungarian tennis.

The Gyulai Memorial starts today with the hammer throw events, I am looking forward to see how strong the Polish and Halász are a few weeks before the Games.

We have been there in 2012, we had 4 fencers, no teams. It was a such a low point for us, which is why it was a big deal when Áron Szilágyi won men's sabre, Hungarian fencing really needed it as a sign that we aren't dead yet in the sport. Hopefully Popescu or Teodosiu can do something similar for you.

Úgy tűnik Krausz Gergely ezúttal tényleg kijutott az Olimpiára tollaslabdában. Rio Tokyo Diff Archery - 1 +1 Athletics 19 19 Badminton 1 2 +1 Boxing 2 1 -1 Canoe Slalom - 1 +1 Canoe Sprint 15 17 +2 Cycling Mountain Bike 1 2 +1 Cycling Road - 1 +1 Diving 1 - -1 Fencing 9 10 +1 Gymnastics Artistic 2 1 -1 Gymnastics Rhythmic - 1 +1 Handball - 14 +14 Judo 8 7 -1 Karate - 1 +1 Modern Pentathlon 4 4 Rowing 3 1 -2 Sailing 5 4 -1 Shooting 8 4 -4 Swimming 37 34 -3 Table Tennis 3 5 +2 Taekwondo - 1 +1 Tennis 2 3 +1 Triathlon 4 4 Water Polo 26 24 -2 Weightlifting 1 1 Wrestling 8 6 -2 159 169 +10

Well, that's certainly a rollercoaster of a qualification for Krausz with how it all went down. He went from having a seemingly official quota to almost certainly not being an Olympic athlete to finally qualifying at the last minute.

I mean, this was true for 99% of the events at the last few Summer Games, but if I remember correctly the Archery ranking rounds are one of those exceptions.

Also, lol, M4 Sport has the Archery ranking rounds listed as a live broadcast on Day 0. I wonder if they forgot that the ranking rounds never have a live feed. (or maybe they will get a live feed this year?) And unsurprisingly they aren't listing the softball matches on the first two days despite the fact that they don't have anything else to broadcast live at that time.

Hm, it looks like for the first time in many years (maybe since 2004?) the Hungarian TV will only have one channel dedicated to the Games. We usually had two for the Summer Games, but now only M4 Sport has Olympic events listed. It's not the end of the world, we will have three channels overall (M4 Sport, Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2), which is more than what we had for Rio because Eurosport didn't have the rights.

Difference between the number of teams qualified for Rio and Tokyo +9 teams +3 teams +2 teams +1 team 0 teams -1 team -2 teams -3 teams -6 teams

And so it ends... with 4 new teams in men's basketball. 6 of the 12 teams from Rio couldn't return in men's basketball. 16 teams 11 teams 9 teams 8 teams 7 teams 6 teams 5 teams 3 teams 2 teams 1 team Returning Rio2016 teams Gained quotas Lost quotas M Football (16/16) W Football (12/12) M Basketball (12/12) W Basketball (12/12) M Volleyball (12/12) W Volleyball (12/12) M Handball (12/12) W Handball (12/12) M Water polo (12/12) W Water polo (10/10) M Field hockey (12/12) W Field hockey (12/12) M Rugby (12/12) W Rugby (12/12) Baseball (6/6) Softball (6/6)

Do we finally have the list of swimmers who qualified with OSTs?

I think they are in the fencing team events and in team sports, like for us. It looks like Hungarians aren't only ones who are counting these athletes for the official team size, which is not a bad thing, most (if not all) of them will participate at the Games and will be officially added to the team size anyway.

Hey, we beat at the previous EuroBasket, maybe Paris is our turn.

So what would be the expected outcome today? ?

Here's an interesting fun fact: this is the first time ever that a swimmer is the Hungarian flag bearer at the Opening ceremony. I think this is mostly because swimmers usually aren't able to participate as they have events the next day. I am sure Egerszegi and/or Darnyi would have been flag bearers during the 90s if their events weren't so close to the ceremony.

László Cseh (Swimming) and Aida Mohamed (Fencing)